Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Doesn't this pretty much shoot down the claim that Texas energy markets are exceptionally unfettered by government intervention? You know, a "free market"?

Because you can choose what company bills you, there is the appearance of a "free market", but the game is still rigged.

 

[RandomJohnny]

Except that this was brought up in this thread regarding a recent tweet by Elon.
Are tweets or responses off limit too. I already left this group regarding the virus topic, gracefully.
I'm getting seriously tired of being nice here. Best I shut up then.

Maybe you missed it but they changed the title of this thread to "Hypocrites of the TSLA Investment World". You should take it as a compliment if they ask you to post elsewhere.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We've really hit a fresh low here. I guess entirely appropriate for the 75th week of lockdown. You can now do one of three things here:

1) Fight over and 'disagree' on what's appropriate for this thread.
2) Brainstorm the many ways we are most certainly "all gonna f#$%@%ing die!" in the Boronavirus thread.
3) Read one of @Buckminster 's 600,000 threads.

Enjoy. Looking forward to a fresh start a couple months from now!

 

[generalenthu]

It would be nice, but our Legislators have put into law that batteries are electricity sources, not electricity storage. So the distributors are barred from using batteries to even out the load. It was tried and slammed down so fast by the Legislators that you could practically see the money changing hands. Those that run peakers absolutely do not want battery storage and as long as they have money to keep the laws in force, it ain't gonna happen.

Agreed, hoping for FERC to be led by a more honest set of bureaucrats in 2021

That said, Texas is an energy market as opposed to a capacity market in the rest of US. That's why I think it presents an opportunity.

 

[RandomJohnny]

Doesn't this pretty much shoot down the claim that Texas energy markets are exceptionally unfettered by government intervention? You know, a "free market"?

Expecting perfection leaves a lot to ignore.

 

[willow_hiller]

How much weight do you all give to stock futures, especially early on a Sunday?

Looks like the major indexes are down 1% right now, but I have been trying to follow them for a few weeks now and it seems like where the futures open on Sunday and where the macros end up Monday morning aren't always as strongly correlated as one would expect.

 

[AlMc]

How much weight do you all give to stock futures, especially early on a Sunday?

Looks like the major indexes are down 1% right now, but I have been trying to follow them for a few weeks now and it seems like where the futures open on Sunday and where the macros end up Monday morning aren't always as strongly correlated as one would expect.

Very little. The second part of your post explains why.

 

[Thekiwi]

One last parting thought before I take my leave from TMC again

It's pretty alarming and surprising to see people emotionally selling with expectations of a 400-500 share price that they'll be able to buy back in at towards the end of Q2. Not saying it's impossible that the stock goes back to 400-500 but I have a hard time seeing logical investors ignoring that Q3 will likely produce 175-185k vehicles with revenue of 10-11 billion.....even if Q2 slumps because of little production out of Fremont. Smart money is not going to focus on Q2 and ignore Q3.

2020 so far has showed us that once momentum changes in this stock, you can easily see anywhere from a 20-40% rise in the stock price in only a week. Any surprise announcement of Fremont production starting before beginning of June will be a pretty big positive catalyst and there's no way you're gonna be able to get in front of a surprise announcement like that.

Maybe its just me but I'm ecstatic to be moving funds around to buy more in the 600 to low 700 level after that Q1 earnings. 30% margin at 175-185k deliveries has me savoring the thought of buying more at the end of this upcoming week (the sooner those funds clear the better )

175-185k vehicles in Q3??? This is the first time I have seen anyone predict Q3 numbers in that sort of range.

I don’t think Tesla will have the supply Capacity or the demand to get anywhere near to that sort of number In Q3. That would need Fremont to significantly increase production AND require China to be at or over 5000 a week as well, both of which seem a little unlikely.

On the demand side I think shareholders need to prepare for at least some temporary softening of demand due to CV. To expect the demand for large discretionary purchases like premium cars not to be significantly impacted is not realistic. For instance here is a Gallup result showing that half of the USA upper middle class have had an impact on employment from CV.

• More than half of American adults said their employment status had been negatively affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a recent Gallup poll. The effects included a loss of income (26 percent), hours being reduced (15 percent), being temporarily laid off (10 percent) and losing their job permanently (2 percent). Of the adults who were surveyed who live in households with incomes below $35,000, 68 percent said they had experienced at least one of these four negative effects. Among those in households with incomes over $90,000 per year, 49 percent said they had experienced at least one.

 

[feigen66]

175-185k vehicles only Q3??? This is the first time I have seen anyone predict Q3 numbers in that sort of range.

I don’t think Tesla will have the supply Capacity or the demand to get anywhere near to that sort of number In Q3. That would need Fremont to significantly increase production AND require China to be at or over 5000 a week as well, both of which seem a little unlikely.

On the demand side I think shareholders need to prepare for at least some temporary softening of demand due to CV. To expect the demand for large discretionary purchases like premium cars not to be significantly impacted is not realistic. For instance here is a Gallup result showing that half of the USA upper middle class are suffering form a drop in income currently.

• More than half of American adults said their employment status had been negatively affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a recent Gallup poll. The effects included a loss of income (26 percent), hours being reduced (15 percent), being temporarily laid off (10 percent) and losing their job permanently (2 percent). Of the adults who were surveyed who live in households with incomes below $35,000, 68 percent said they had experienced at least one of these four negative effects. Among those in households with incomes over $90,000 per year, 49 percent said they had experienced at least one.

Agree demand will be soften. I am interested in relative because Wall St. also adjusted their expectations as well.

I was watching quarterly result from GOOG. The revenue *only* increase by 13%. Previously Wall St. would bash any number that is less than 20% but it seems any double digits increase they will take it now given today's circumstances.

Given GDP is going to shrink by double digits this quarter, as long as Tesla behave stronger than competitors we should be fine.

Tesla also have much diversified profolio, not just selling cars, while F and GM will take much severely hit on their only revenue stream.

 

[Singuy]

The political climate right now is deem to irrational to call workers back regardless safety protocols you might have.

Wait two weeks when we have COVID from the states open up early. Even thought MSM could spin to whatever narratives, it is still better than opening it now.

Time is in our favor since we know for sure lockdown cannot sustain forever regardless which camp you are in.

In a couple weeks, Democrat in swing states will start to sing a different tune.

Giga 1 is under different shelter in place restrictions than the bay area. I believe people are allowed to go back to work and Giga 1 was never completely shut down most likely due to it being a critical infrastructure since it's in the business of supplying auto parts and energy. It had 25% staff from the Tesla side with nothing on the Panasonic side who are going back to work on May 4th I believe.

 

[Singuy]

175-185k vehicles in Q3??? This is the first time I have seen anyone predict Q3 numbers in that sort of range.

I don’t think Tesla will have the supply Capacity or the demand to get anywhere near to that sort of number In Q3. That would need Fremont to significantly increase production AND require China to be at or over 5000 a week as well, both of which seem a little unlikely.

On the demand side I think shareholders need to prepare for at least some temporary softening of demand due to CV. To expect the demand for large discretionary purchases like premium cars not to be significantly impacted is not realistic. For instance here is a Gallup result showing that half of the USA upper middle class have had an impact on employment from CV.

• More than half of American adults said their employment status had been negatively affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a recent Gallup poll. The effects included a loss of income (26 percent), hours being reduced (15 percent), being temporarily laid off (10 percent) and losing their job permanently (2 percent). Of the adults who were surveyed who live in households with incomes below $35,000, 68 percent said they had experienced at least one of these four negative effects. Among those in households with incomes over $90,000 per year, 49 percent said they had experienced at least one.

The earning letter did say they have the capacity to do 500k this year despite shut down. They didn't say they can or will deliver 500k.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

175-185k vehicles in Q3??? This is the first time I have seen anyone predict Q3 numbers in that sort of range.

I don’t think Tesla will have the supply Capacity or the demand to get anywhere near to that sort of number In Q3. That would need Fremont to significantly increase production AND require China to be at or over 5000 a week as well, both of which seem a little unlikely.

On the demand side I think shareholders need to prepare for at least some temporary softening of demand due to CV. To expect the demand for large discretionary purchases like premium cars not to be significantly impacted is not realistic. For instance here is a Gallup result showing that half of the USA upper middle classy ave had an impact on employment From CV.

• More than half of American adults said their employment status had been negatively affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a recent Gallup poll. The effects included a loss of income (26 percent), hours being reduced (15 percent), being temporarily laid off (10 percent) and losing their job permanently (2 percent). Of the adults who were surveyed who live in households with incomes below $35,000, 68 percent said they had experienced at least one of these four negative effects. Among those in households with incomes over $90,000 per year, 49 percent said they had experienced at least one.

Not going to respond to the demand question because I fundamentally believe that demand for tesla vehicles is not an issue and tesla's target consumer is the least affected by the layoffs and furloughs. We can agree to disagree when it comes to that. If Tesla was trying to sell a couple million cars this year, yeah I'd say there's concern for demand. I'm not concerned with selling 420k vehicles over the next 8 months

When it comes to production, its just math. I would definitely bet that Giga 3 will be at 5k a week by August. They're already approaching 4k a week. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they surpass 5k/week during mid Q3. So 13 weeks in the quarter, that's 65k just from China. As for Fremont, my numbers are based on Fremont getting back to full production with Model Y. They were already doing around 7.5k/week before the Model Y. I think it's entirely reasonable to say full fremont production with model y is 8.5/week. So thats 110k from Fremont. I don't see how 175 is unreasonable at all.

 

[Singuy]

Potential FUD for Monday.
green on Twitter
View attachment 538361

That title make it seem like someone hacked into Tesla and compromised my data. This type of "compromise" is like "if you throw your credit card away in the trash without cutting it up, consider it compromised"...okay?

 

[feigen66]

Giga 1 is under different shelter in place restrictions than the bay area. I believe people are allowed to go back to work and Giga 1 was never completely shut down most likely due to it being a critical infrastructure since it's in the business of supplying auto parts and energy. It had 25% staff from the Tesla side with nothing on the Panasonic side who are going back to work on May 4th I believe.

Agree. What I was suggesting is public perspective. Resuming to work from Tesla was seen as endangering public health now to be read as patriotic thing to do (albeit the most left-leaning media would still spin it as endangering public health but after six weeks of lockdown some people are starting to change their mind).

May would be an interesting (key) month to look at. I believe the next phase of media will shift to social-economic injustice and Presidential compaign. Elon's tweet has accelerated the process.

I had involved previously in Sander's compaign and various climate activist -- to support climate change. It's not too hard to read their mind. Compaign strategists usually have agenda being planned weeks or months ahead. Some opinions or columns were already written weeks before and just need to fill the blank with data fit the narrative.

 

[Singuy]

Agree. What I was suggesting is public perspective. Resuming to work from Tesla was seen as endangering public health now to be read as patriotic thing to do (albeit the most left-leaning media would still spin it as endangering public health but after six weeks of lockdown some people are starting to change their mind).

May would be an interesting (key) month to look at. I believe the next phase of media will shift to social-economic injustice and Presidential compaign. Elon's tweet has accelerated the process.

I had involved previously in Sander's compaign and various climate activist -- to support climate change. It's not too hard to read their mind. Compaign strategists usually have agenda being planned weeks or months ahead. Some opinions or columns were already written weeks before and just need to fill the blank with data fit the narrative.

Think Elon give zero F and definitely are not considering an image issue when calling giga workers off. It's a strategic decision, was just wondering why.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also if you think my 175-185k Q3 production number is outrageous then you don't want to see my Q4 guesstimate lol

(200k)

(MIC 3 + MIC Y initial production + 10k/week Fremont production)

 

[MC3OZ]

Obviously not. But the one under discussion appears to be an "activist sheriff" who inserts himself into places he has no business being. Just what you don't want with a law enforcement officer.

IMO Mid-May is still more likely than June 1, provided California makes good progress with COVID-19 over the next week or so.

Tesla is a big employer in Alameda county a lot of voters in the county surely must work for Tesla or have a friend or relative who does. Or work in a local small business that is suffering, or have a friend or relative who does.

it will be telling if the COVID-19 stats improve and country officials still refuse permission to open the factory.
United States Coronavirus: 1,187,233 Cases and 68,566 Deaths - Worldometer

California has around 1,000 new cases per day at present, I guess it all depends on where they are clustered.

Hopefully we get to an inflection point where the number of daily new cases in California and the US drops, if we do get there, I bet the factory will open quickly.

Mass protests about beach closures probably don't help reduce new infections.. but they do indicate the risk of keeping shelter in place to strict for too long. After a while people can become fed up and disobedient.

 

[AlMc]

Also if you think my 175-185k Q3 production number is outrageous then you don't want to see my Q4 guesstimate lol

(200k)

(MIC 3 + MIC Y initial production + 10k/week Fremont production)

Please FedEx me whatever you are smoking or drinking. I do hope you re correct BTW.

 

[MC3OZ]

Also if you think my 175-185k Q3 production number is outrageous then you don't want to see my Q4 guesstimate lol

(200k)

(MIC 3 + MIC Y initial production + 10k/week Fremont production)

While I do think this is a chance, we need to consider parts production, we don't know what external suppliers parts are needed and how quickly those external suppliers can ramp.

I do think China will emerge as a valuable source of parts, shipping some parts from China to the US Q3/Q4 is possible. If not Q3/Q4 this is only a matter of time IMO.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So, kind of a technical / production question. Let’s say Giga 1 in Nevada is able to start cranking out model 3 and model y battery packs. Obviously no cars to put them in the near future so they would have to store them. What kind of maintenance is required to keep these packs healthy. I’m sure there is a systym in place but if this scenario is playing out I wonder what kind of challenges they are having. Storage etc.

Just curious.

Cheers all.