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Now what versions should Fremont make for the rest of the quarter ?
Mostly European ?
If they could get them shipped and delivered by end of June, that might make the most sense (more credits). But that seems way risky. Might be best to write off Europe this quarter, go domestic and then start shipping big time in July.
 
There's been some concern about whether Tesla could face supply shortages when production begins. One item I did note from the Q1 10Q is that they finished Q1 with a high level of Raw Materials Inventory:
upload_2020-5-4_15-57-8.png


It only takes one component part shortage to hold up a manufacturing line, but my guess is that Tesla stocked up on parts in March in anticipation of a potential supply disruption. I hope I'm right.
 
Now what versions should Fremont make for the rest of the quarter ?
Mostly European ?

I think it may be late in the cycle to produce EU cars, since they'd have to either cross by land (expensive, but faster) or by water (probably not by EOQ). It might be worth it to focus largely on the Y, as it has the reservations, and they could likely get a lot of them delivered before EOQ once they're made. We still have inventory of Model S, X, and 3, according to EV-CPO, but not a lot, and so Fremont could also pad out their inventory/push for sales once the states start opening up again, since they've not completely stopped sales during the time they have stopped producing.
 
So retail along with associated manufacturing and supply chains will be allowed to reopen Friday. Imo Fremont would be part of this. Of course Alameda will probably delay it but I agree with Stealth, Alameda will not be able to hold out for much longer than the rest of the state.

Tesla Daily Retweeted
Gavin Newsom‏Verified account @GavinNewsom 27m27 minutes ago
CA is led by data and SCIENCE. Based off our progress, we’ll begin to gradually move into Stage 2 this FRIDAY. Some sectors where there’s a lower risk of transmission will be able to adapt & re-open with modifications. This will include some retail and manufacturing/logistics.

326 replies1,191 retweets3,840 likes
 
Stock Option Max Pain

It was 790 on ~Thursday last week, 785 over the weekend when I looked, and today it continues to be 785.

It's also a weekly options expiration, thus relatively low volume, and thus relatively low incentive to shape the share price to 785.

Curious, www.opricot.com has it at $735 - which one is correct?

upload_2020-5-4_22-4-35.png
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
That isn't what the statistics show:

Florida, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina (in that order) are the leaders for net US domestic migration.

Meanwhile...

New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, Louisiana (in that order) are the biggest losers.

List of U.S. states and territories by net migration - Wikipedia


Personally I am skeptical Elon would want to pick up and move out of CA all at once. It would be far to disruptive and expensive at a time the company is working hard to grow... but he could certainly stop investing in CA and bit by bit move the company out over the next 5-10 years. It would be a replay of what happened to the other auto plants in CA over the years...

Some of what Musk has been saying recently should be of real concern to people all over the US.

Look at China/Shanghai. The people and the governments love Tesla. Shanghai itself is an important city-state within the broader national political scene. Chinese men looking for life-opportunity struggle for the right to get an apartment there. It's not automatic; they have to prove their worth to the city to be allowed.

I was there two years ago, while the US media was still sourly doubting the Shanghai factory would ever become a reality. Every single person I spoke to in Shanghai not only was certain it was a fait accompli, but were over-the-top with enthusiasm for it. They saw it as a shining gem that would elevate their city. I mean even random workers I spoke to while riding the subway. Everyone was excited. People in restaurants, in hotels, in language exchanges. Every single person. It was vivid on their horizon with pride and hope.

Yes, there was some Covid disruption in Shanghai for less than two weeks in February. But the government gave serious assistance with Tesla worker PPE and safety procedures. They strongly supported the opening of the factory. That knowledge and experience obviously still exists within Tesla about how to safely run a factory in a pandemic. They could apply it with equal success at Fremont. Musk knows this, but he is being punished throughout the US for even voicing it. Punished as if he is ignorant when he is one of the few with real experience. Even bringing in ventilators: punished. Condemning panic: punished. Dare to keep his factory open and safe: punished. Who needs it?

Tesla is now a global force. How much more abuse from the US media and regulators will it take for Musk to make up his mind about his best chances for real progress on the global scene? In all he does, it seems that the single most important motivator for Musk is the freedom to move ahead. That's what made Nevada his choice. Same with Shanghai. It's a little harder to know about Germany, but he probably had that in his calculus there as well.

US supercilious arrogance is the reason for its dismal place on the global pandemic metrics, and still there is no appetite for methods of others who have succeeded. Will the same characteristic get the US a similar rating in Musk's appraisal? As you say, SpeedGoat, all he has to do is move his investments bit by bit to where things make more sense for him. Yes, a Cybertruck factory will still make sense in the US, probably Texas. Great as that vehicle will be, there is much more to Musk and Tesla than that.
 
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Curious, www.opricot.com has it at $735 - which one is correct?

View attachment 538688

That's interesting, and I appreciate the link. One reason they might be different - the max pain site I linked defaults to the next expiring option (this week's weekly option). Does opricot default to the next monthly expiration?

EDIT: stupid auto typo, turning opricot into apricot.
 
That's interesting, and I appreciate the link. One reason they might be different - the max pain site I linked defaults to the next expiring option (this week's weekly option). Does opricot default to the next monthly expiration?

EDIT: stupid auto typo, turning opricot into apricot.

No, that's the "target" for this Friday. No doubt it will be up $10-15 after today's run...

That being said, shorty will be back tomorrow :mad:
 
And yet one of the common complaints here in Washington State is about the number of people selling their homes in California and driving up the price of homes up here.

Hey you want to stay there and pay outrageous prices for homes. High taxes etc. More power to you.

Me I am just going to sit back and smile looking at this...View attachment 538109

That's pretty nice Steve. In a few short years, after Tesla owns the automotive and energy markets, I'll suggest you might want to buy up all those shoddily build homes in the foreground and plant some nice native vegetation on both sides of your nature trail down to the beach. ;)