Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Reductionist]

Elon is properly mad:

I’m not messing around. Absurd & medically irrational behavior in violation of constitutional civil liberties, moreover by *unelected* county officials with no accountability, needs to stop.
​

 

[MartinAustin]

Ya, but you open the front door and you're...in Texas.

The scenery in Texas is "beaten into a cocked hat" by Washington and California, no doubts there

 

[Sanny]

I'm surprised some people still read Elons tweets (of today) as emotional or childish. I assume those people have never negotiated business rent or similar matters.

 

[MartinAustin]

I know we're still kinda tracking developments as they occur, but, can anyone opine on what effect on TSLA all this will have on Monday morning? Up or down? I can't decide either way yet.

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[Mike Smith]

I know we're still kinda tracking developments as they occur, but, can anyone opine on what effect on TSLA all this will have on Monday morning? Up or down? I can't decide either way yet.

Definite positive reaction tomorrow in my opinion:

1) It shows Tesla is seeing huge demand to be so desperate to get the factory open.
2) This makes it way more likely Alameda County will quickly allow the factory to re-open.
3) It shows Tesla has a CEO who will do whatever it takes to get results.

 

[woodisgood]

I know we're still kinda tracking developments as they occur, but, can anyone opine on what effect on TSLA all this will have on Monday morning? Up or down? I can't decide either way yet.

County caves, stock goes up. If they’re smart they’ll wait til Tuesday so they have time to buy calls on Monday (last part was a joke...last thing we need is to add corruption to bumbling incompetence).

A move to Mordor is pretty difficult to spin in any way other than positive long-term, so I’d imagine SP reacts positively. There will be plenty of FUD around the financial implications and short-term chaos of relocation, but it will soon become apparent Elon has been planning this for a while, only implementing it a little more abruptly than he had expected to.

 

[Krugerrand]

I know we're still kinda tracking developments as they occur, but, can anyone opine on what effect on TSLA all this will have on Monday morning? Up or down? I can't decide either way yet.

I think we have to see how this plays out. We have one more day of the weekend.

I’m guessing Tesla gets back to work on Monday, if they aren’t already at least starting to get their protocols organized. Not all workers, obviously.

Lawsuit is filed and I think Elon’s just going to put his head down and drive on. Deal with consequences as they come; fines, arrests... Selfishly my evil side kind of wants to see Elon in handcuffs on the news Monday. I think that would be hilariously fabulous and increase our wealths.

So my WAG is up on Monday unless macros are end of the world has arrived/more talk of it’s all China’s fault.

 

[homer214]

As someone who might move at some point - I worry about kids education. Are they still against teaching evolution ? How is racism compared to west coast ?

The most important thing about west coast I think is the mobility. Its so easy to switch companies - there are so many good companies to work for.

Companies locate and relocate for various reasons. Education is a big one for many CEO's and boards. To see some educational stats:
List of U.S. states and territories by educational attainment - Wikipedia

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 540187

If that’s not a sign!

 

[jerry33]

Anybody able to estimate what the Q2 restructuring charge will be for moving Tesla HQ to Texas?

It really shouldn't be much because HQ is just office and staff. Moving HQ does not mean moving the factory immediately. (Unless Elon intends to build an Apple style compound, which I doubt very much.)

 

[LJS22]

I know we're still kinda tracking developments as they occur, but, can anyone opine on what effect on TSLA all this will have on Monday morning? Up or down? I can't decide either way yet.

long term investors should be pleased with this development. It’s an opportunity not a loss. Short term obviously has it’s difficulties but long term the story gets stronger. Retail investors will follow suit on what big guns decide. As long as all current long term investors view this as a positive then Tsla will be fine this week. Shorts can try to paint a different story but the fact that a car company is basically saying they’re tom brady and are open to free agency is typically a bullish sign as it puts the incentives on the table.

 

[SMAlset]

Now that you've run out this weekend rush of posts, suppose another factory is built, what could the remains of Fremont be used for?

well I think Lucid already has a factory in the works out of State but maybe some Chinese manufacturer like BYD would come in.

 

[Mo City]

I know we're still kinda tracking developments as they occur, but, can anyone opine on what effect on TSLA all this will have on Monday morning? Up or down? I can't decide either way yet.

Great question!

I think the effect will be neutral or positive. If an agreement to open by May 18 is made by tomorrow, very likely positive IMO.

 

[DriveMe]

Selling his CA houses makes much more sense now!

 

[Intl Professor]

An Apple factory ?

Marijuana plantation? That'l smokeum.

 

[jerry33]

In the list of U.S. states, Texas is the third-largest market for Tesla. Only Washington and California have bigger sales, and they have huge tax rebates for BEVs. Texas has NO rebates for Tesla cars whatsoever and it's still Tesla's 3rd-largest market. Translation: the dealership new-car-sales monopoly law in Texas is causing NO significant problem for Tesla. Tesla doesn't care if that law is in place or not.

I don't agree with this part. From what I've seen, Tesla sales could have been at least double if that law wasn't there.

 

[LJS22]

Selling his CA houses makes much more sense now!

He can build a cyberRanch on 400 acres in south Texas for $20 million haha

 

[SMAlset]

Here's a key argument in the suit (bold text mine):

Although the County interprets its Third Order to mean otherwise, the County’s COVID-19 “Frequently Asked Questions” ostensibly authorizes both battery and electric vehicle manufacturing companies to operate. The relevant text provides:

My business installs distributed solar, storage, and/or electric vehicle charging systems – can it continue to operate?

Yes, this is permissible construction activity and must comply with the Construction Project Safety Protocols in Appendix B of the Order. Businesses may also operate to
manufacture distributed energy resource components, like solar panels.

Critically, this allowance for the “manufacture [of] distributed energy resource components” encompasses substantially all of Tesla’s manufacturing activities in Fremont. As defined by the Public Utility Commission (the state agency solely charged with regulating distributed energy), “distributed energy resource technology” includes both electric vehicles and batteries: “For purposes of this section, ‘distributed resources’ means distributed renewable generation resources, energy efficiency, energy storage, electric vehicles, and demand response technologies.”

I have to say I was shocked after reading the Federal Essential Businesses way back when and saw Automotive on it that any car manufacturer closed down, not just Tesla. I think the UAW was the reason the Big 3 Detroit plants finally did. They made some noise but pretty much even with the pushback against the Gov of Michigan I don’t recall hearing much more from them. And they are set to open...what on the 18th? I think their case load in Michigan is also much higher than the Bay areas. I’m really surprised when Tesla went to Newsom without a favorable ruling that the lawsuit didn’t happen back then. With lower rates here now I guess they stand a better chance of winning the lawsuit.

 

[jerry33]

County caves, stock goes up. If they’re smart they’ll wait til Tuesday so they have time to buy calls on Monday (last part was a joke...last thing we need is to add corruption to bumbling incompetence).

Isn't it more like adding bumbling incompetence to corruption?