Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Those are...spectacularly bad predictions. Par for IEA. They are turning out to be a good contra-indicator.

Let's face it, we can't even predict the price of toilet-paper for the end of next week, HTF can we get a cost for battery storage in 2040??

 

[ggr]

That footage had to be from long ago when they were at full throttle without precautions. At most I saw 3 maybe 4 workers together and they didn't have to be together. They were also already wearing gloves. Most counties in the US have a 6 person or less gathering rule, altho Alameda county probably says you must live in a bubble.

Just food for thought.

Of course it was old, stock footage. If only because the safe return policies don't allow unnecessary people in the factory. All tours are halted too.

 

[Reductionist]

Actual cost of utility scale battery storage, vs. IEA predictions up to 2040.

´
Based on this I think it's reasonable to think that battery storage growth is going to massively outperform market expectations over the next few years.
If only there were a company that sells utility scale battery storage, and is about to unveil significant advances beyond the current state of the art in $/kWh..

--Disregard the above post post--
This graph compares two different metrics that cannot be directly compared.
I didn't catch that unfortunately
Post deleted

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I guess we're capped at 840 today. Not nearly enough volume to break through. I guess buyers are gonna wait for an "official" announcement.

The biggest annoyance about this whole thing is that it feels like battery day is going to get delayed again. I'm sure Elons and Tesla's focus is more on the fight with the county over picking the date. I would imagine if we don't get a date by Thursday, its delayed until the 1st week of June because the SpaceX launch is the last week of May

 

[CyberDutchie]

Alameda county sheriff on whether he is going to arrest Musk: (skip to 2:15)

He certainly seems motivated to do so /s

Really funny comment in Rob’s Daily Podcast:

Elon goes to jail, makes his phone call to the Boring Company "Fire up the boring machine"

 

[aubreymcfato]

With all due respect can you please reference or quote example of pseudoscience from Elon?

Let me try to highlight just one episode.
When Elon responds to this video of Vittorio Sgarbi "He is right"¹, he's giving a thumbs up to one of the most incompetent and lazy political and TV troll that Italy has ever had (and, trust me, there is competition).

Sgarbi has downplayed Covid from day 1, when nobody, and himself more than others², didn't really have a clue of what was happening.
There's been a debate about "deaths with C19" and "deaths by C19". Counting *everything* as "death by" can lead to some overcounting, I agree with that.

The point is that there are other factors at play, like a huge undercounting because not enough tests has been run in Italy. As I said months ago here, and even Elon reiterated at Joe Rogan's, C19 was *already* everywhere, and has been for months. C19 was likely already in Europe from beginning of 2020. And I don't understand why Elon neven mentioned this kind of undercounting.
We know from ISTAT stats that in Italy, in March, in some Lombardy municipalities nearly 10x died more than in the previous 2015-2019 period (averaged). In big cities deaths doubled or even tripled.

In Lombardy there has been a massacre, and hundreds of deaths have been attributed to C19 after weeks they happened, exactly because the health system could process suspect cases fast enough. And when doctors think at this 2019-2020 winter they actually recall a surge in pneumonia and covid-like illness. Those were likely to be C19 cases, but nobody counted them.
All in all, in the worst regions I'd bet money that undercounting trumped overcounting.

PS. In US may be different because you have economic incentives in private hospitals to overcount, I'll give you that.

¹ Elon Musk on Twitter
² He's a TV celebrity, an historian of art, a politician with 9X% of absence from the Parlament. Not an expert, but neither a first-principle thinker like Elon. He's actually famous for his angry outburts on TV (and on that video too. He's always like that.)

 

[feigen66]

I rewired mine.

We have pages of discussion on whatever he does, so that's not evidence.

No you did not rewire your brain. You are still emotional attach to Elon's tweet. Evidently you are being upset.

Taking out limbic system will literally stop your brain from functioning, even logical thinking.


The most logical thinking is how to maximize the likelihood to get Fremont factory started within six weeks of Shelter in Place.

• You have a Governor washed his hand and ignore federal defined CISA.
• You have out of touch health officers taking their own time, no idea of manufacturing logistics, and contributing people's frustration to the nice weather.
• You have proven the safety protocol has been implemented in Giga Shanghai, Giga Nevada, Giga New York and a press factory running 24/7 in San Juan County with zero incidents weeks prior to the opening of Fremont Factory.
• You have consulted with EHS department, which by the way, also led by medical experts.
• You monitored the public perceptions on the media and knew that there would be a very polarized view on COVID. There are two camps: a) YOU-KILL-GRAMMA b) COVID-Hoax. YOU-KILL-GRAMMA camp will not let you open the factory in six weeks, period. The probability is zero, and shorts are against you -- spreading FUDs. You know whatever logical statement being published will be twisted. The chance is almost 100%.

Could you tell me what your logical-thinking brain would do, given you have six weeks while burning half billion dollars per week?

 

[EV forever]

Suddenly dropped by over 10 bucks. What was that?

 

[Tslynk67]

Let me try to highlight just one episode.
When Elon responds to this video of Vittorio Sgarbi "He is right"¹, he's giving a thumbs up to one of the most incompetent and lazy political and TV troll that Italy has ever had (and, trust me, there is competition).

Sgarbi has downplayed Covid from day 1, when nobody, and himself more than others², didn't really have a clue of what was happening.
There's been a debate about "deaths with C19" and "deaths by C19". Counting *everything* as "death by" can lead to some overcounting, I agree with that.

The point is that there are other factors at play, like a huge undercounting because not enough tests has been run in Italy. As I said months ago here, and even Elon reiterated at Joe Rogan's, C19 was *already* everywhere, and has been for months. C19 was likely already in Europe from beginning of 2020. And I don't understand why Elon neven mentioned this kind of undercounting.
We know from ISTAT stats that in Italy, in March, in some Lombardy municipalities nearly 10x died more than in the previous 2015-2019 period (averaged). In big cities deaths doubled or even tripled.

In Lombardy there has been a massacre, and hundreds of deaths have been attributed to C19 after weeks they happened, exactly because the health system could process suspect cases fast enough. And when doctors think at this 2019-2020 winter they actually recall a surge in pneumonia and covid-like illness. Those were likely to be C19 cases, but nobody counted them.
All in all, in the worst regions I'd bet money that undercounting trumped overcounting.

PS. In US may be different because you have economic incentives in private hospitals to overcount, I'll give you that.

¹ Elon Musk on Twitter
² He's a TV celebrity, an historian of art, a politician with 9X% of absence from the Parlament. Not an expert, but neither a first-principle thinker like Elon. He's actually famous for his angry outburts on TV (and on that video too. He's always like that.)

I'm in Belgium, not the USA. Any death in a care home (which is 51% of the C19 attribute deaths) are recorded a C19 as the cause regardless. This is why Belgium's death-rate is higher than other countries, it's over-counting.

I have watched the Sgarbi video and seemed to me he made some valid points - he's stating that what's reported in the news doesn't match with the actual statistics. This should surely be easy to disprove if it's untrue - any ideas on that?

I still don't see Elon as promoting pseudoscience. I think he's totally correct the he states that kids are essentially immune, that the panic is dumb and that the risk is overall much lower than many doom-mongers are stating. Where he was wrong is with the prediction of the number of new cases by end April, but that's just opinion. the actual truth lies somewhere between the optimists and the pessimists.

Of course if you're over 60, obese, diabetic, hypertension, etc., stay home, but then you'd also be at high risk with seasonal flu too, maybe not as much, but more than a healthy younger person.

 

[Mike Smith]

Suddenly dropped by over 10 bucks. What was that?

Manipulation obviously. TSLA should only ever trade higher.

 

[Todd Burch]

Suddenly dropped by over 10 bucks. What was that?

Shorty McShortFace?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Suddenly dropped by over 10 bucks. What was that?

Macro drop x 3 (in percentage). It's a classic bear raid. Here's what happened to the SP compared to the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ on this chart)

Currently SP capping going on for TSLA as macros pushed back to even for the day.

 

[skybluecgreen]

I wrote to the Alameda supervisors on Saturday morning and to my surprise I got a response today. Sharing that and my response to their response for anyone interested:

Sent: Saturday, May 9, 2020 11:11 AM
To: District 1 Mailbox Supervisor Scott Haggerty <[email protected]>
Subject: Please proceed to Phase 2 now

Comments:

Clearly the threat of the healthcare system being overwhelmed is over. That was the reason to flatten the curve. Your insistence delaying Phase 2 is unreasonable. Please consider revising your guidelines immediately.


Wilson, Shawn, BOS Dist 1 <[email protected]>
8:34 AM (2 hours ago)

Hi Jack
The County Board of Supervisors do not "Revise" the Health Order. That is actually done by the Alameda County Health Officer Dr. Erica Pan. We continue to try and push for loosening of the restrictions to get all employees back to work but in some industries like construction we have been successful but in others such as "manufacturing" we have not. We will continue to push to get people back to work!


10:25 AM (17 minutes ago)

to Shawn,

Why thank you for your response! I wish you luck with your push to further loosen Alameda's restrictions but I think you should consider 'pushing' Dr. Pan out of her current role.

Do you really think it is wise to allow such important decisions to rest in the hands of one person? Governor Newsom and the State's team led by Tom Steyer have a great range of expertise and experience and they are following science to determine what is reasonably safe. You are contradicting them based on one person's opinion. If Alameda was some kind of hotspot for Covid spread it would be understandable to be stricter than the State but it is most certainly not. If your hospitals were stretched to the limit it would be justifiable but again, they are not.

I am a Tesla shareholder but more than that I am a devoted environmentalist. Tesla is not just the biggest manufacturer in California, they are doing the most of any company in the world to push the transition from a polluting a fossil fuel economy to a sustainable one. I am a Tesla shareholder because I want to be a part of furthering this essential transition. I think those concerned about the environment would have classified Tesla as an essential business from the start.

Most of all I am a proud Californian. I am proud to have what I consider the greatest company on earth headquartered right here in our state. Please do not let one person jeopardize this treasure of ours.

No reply is necessary. I appreciate having my voice heard and I hope considered.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Manipulation obviously. TSLA should only ever trade higher.

Guarantee you if macros recover from that drop, Tesla won't lol

I would love to be wrong but #2 in the playbook to limiting tesla stock is let macros take it lower and then cap any recovery. We've seen it a hundred times

 

[Mo City]

Suddenly dropped by over 10 bucks. What was that?

Just making sure you are safely locked into your roller coaster seat.

 

[feigen66]

Previously, I was involved in Tay project, an AI bot on Twitter:
Tay (bot) - Wikipedia

The logical thinking is simple -- how we could teach a bot that:

1. maximize the followers
2. gets the most response
3. making compelling sentences

The bot is written in purely code, solving a huge matrices. It's all calculus, no limbic system and don't understand emotion.
But 99.9%, Tay would be incentivized to become a racist. It's all probabilistic.

When your most efficient communication is limited by 280 characters, it is essentially attracting headline readers, which describes in this phycological paper here (Phycological Targeting):

Psychological targeting as an effective approach to digital mass persuasion

That's how Facebook, Google, Apple and Tweets recommend the information for you based on Phycological Targeting.
In this digital world, your mind has been labelled, stored in the cloud with a big matrix and being mined:
What are Tracking Pixels and How Do They Work?

If we replaced Elon with a logical thinking bot, purely driven by *math*, you would actually get even crazier tweets.

That's my own perspective on his tweets.

Whether he endorses some people we strongly disagree or not, to me, some of them is about Phycological Targeting, while childish, he have laid down the ground work of future actions. From day 1 of Shelter-in-Place, I had been wondering how Elon's could get Trump open his factory and he did it -- after weeks of weeks building up climax. If we have a different (and a more reasonable) President, his tactics might be different.

There are some tweets are definitely *not* in Phycological Targeting, such as "Pedo" and "Funding secure". Those are dumb tweets in my book, which did not maximize the chance of Tesla success, but hey, Elon has limbic system like everyone of us which also does stupid things. He definitely has his own fault.

If you find this informative, great! If you disagree, that's okay. This is my best knowledge and science is not constant. Science is also free for all, which I firmly believe.

p.S.: This would be my last post here for awhile since the motion has been set. I am not seeing any big change until battery day.
Will take a break a few weeks. Need to focus on work since journal reviews have been piled up while spend too much time watching Elon's drama. Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

So, I would argue that the market has been fairly realistic/accurate this entire time.

I disagreed with this because the market has been many months behind reality. The exact amount of time a person assigns to this lag in valuation depends upon how astute one thinks the market can or should be. When I drove the Model 3 for the first time in May of 2018 I knew it was something special, superior to anything out there, and not by a little, the difference was stark.

But I did not load up on Tesla shares that were trading in the $300 range at the time because I wasn't sure they could be produced profitably at the prices they were selling at. There was the threat of stock dilution. I was confident eventually Tesla would prevail but that was not enough to necessarily make it a good investment depending upon how much borrowing/dillution would be required. But towards the middle of 2019 it started to become apparent that this was not only a product that could be sold in great numbers but it could be manufactured profitably (and obviously even more profitable as time went on due to the cost decline curves). The price dropped below $300 under a coordinated attack that began to look more and more like concentrated FUD. In other words, the story started to diverge from reality more and more. And Tesla's finances were steadily strengthening. So I was buying more each time it dropped lower (and I did not consider my purchases to be very risky or speculative). Finally, at $184 it became so devoid of any serious long-term risk I doubled my position all at once. The reality on the ground had diverged from the share price and the "fake news" to a huge degree.

The actual positioning of Tesla in the market had never been stronger at that point in time. So, no, I don't think the market was (or had been) fairly valuing TSLA at that time. And it wasn't difficult to verify this with publically available and reliable sources of information.

To adopt your view that the market has been fairly valuing the shares this entire time would require me to believe that something happened between Dec. 2018 and June 2019 that halved its fair value. Because things were looking pretty shaky in Dec. 2018 and pretty rosy in June 2019 (all the teeth-gnashing about the low share price aside). And, no, I don't consider the poor Q1 2019 financials to be a good reason to devalue the shares by half (Over Dec. 2018) considering that the poor results were obviously caused by one-time factors. In fact, Q2 results confirmed the worst was over but the shares continued to decline. This could be easily ascertained with readily available public info. And this perspective is not me crying over spilled milk or whining that the markets are not fair. In fact, I'm glad for such market disparities and this particular instance has caused my net worth to be a heck of a lot more than if the market always valued the shares realistically according to available information at the time.

The fact is, market valuations have something akin to momentum. That simply means prices don't adapt instantly to conditions on the ground. Instead, they lean heavily on what the price was last week, last month and, in some cases, last year. While it's true that a breaking news story can instantly impact the price, that's only an impact from where the shares were trading immediately previous to the story breaking. And that previous price was likely leaning heavily on previous prices.

In case you can't tell, yes, I think the "Efficient Market Theory" is a bunch of BS except as a theoretical construct that can be useful for other theoretical exercises. The reality of the situation is the market is anything but efficient because it is controlled by humans with all their emotions, biases and faults.

 

[ZeApelido]

I’m really only seeing you and a handful of others constantly bringing it up for weeks on end.

Let me hold your ass to the fire every single day for something you did that I don’t like and we’ll see how long it takes before you think I’m not just being unreasonable but also being a turd.

You’re behavior is ridiculous right now.

My behavior is definitely not ridiculous. I am stating an opinion on something that is definitely on-topic at the moment - who and how Musk may have alienated any part of Tesla's consumers.

It's not even that contentious of a point! You may not agree on what I think about Musk's take on Covid analyses, but are you really disagreeing that many liberals also disagree with Musk's take? That's not about if it's right or wrong, but an observation on which aspects of Musk's actions liberals may have taken offense.

As for me, I'm over it and ready to focus the future aspects of the company. Battery day and FSD progress to start.

 

[Sudre]

Suddenly dropped by over 10 bucks. What was that?

A really good time to sell some PUTs! LOL

 

[ZeApelido]

With all due respect can you please reference or quote example of pseudoscience from Elon?

Sorry I have tried before, but it literally gets removed from this thread and put in the Coronavirus thread. Not really interested anymore in bringing it up. Look up excess mortality studies.

—-

Mod: and that’s where it belongs. I’m really having a hard time understanding why, after two months of warnings, people keep on going down the rabbit hole in this thread.