Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

Does anyone here have book recommendations so I could learn about options? All this options talk is foreign to me, and now that I have some free time coming up I'd like to learn about options trading, as well as how market makers influence/manipulate stock prices.

Thanks.

There are at least two threads here; just search the forum for "options". This one might be a bit advanced for you:
Advanced TSLA Options Trading

 

[InDaClub]

Hey! I’m good at three things, that’s kind of like running three companies.

Half the people like me when I do this:

View attachment 541439

Half the people like me when I do this:

View attachment 541440

And the other half would like me to do this:
View attachment 541441

Maybe, but we've also seen your vicious attacks.

SF TESLA CLUB on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

iconic NASA Meatball

OT:

Spoiler: NASA Spaceballs

NASA - Extragalactic Space Balls

 

[MP3Mike]

• there was 14K of unsold inventory left over from Q1
  • $55K ASP
  • 22% Gross Margin
  • that adds $170M in Gross Profit

• China production is increasing:
  • Model 3 SR+ is over 2.8K wk
  • Model 3 LR will bring the total to 4K/wk
  • GF3 had no covid related shutdown in Q2
  • Gross margins on MiC Model 3 already = Fremont
  • anticipate GF3 to contribute ~$400M in Gross Profit

• FSD stoplight/stopsign functionality unlocks ~$140M to net profit

• Eurozone/FCA CO2 credits are a further tailwind which increases with deliveries

I don't know how much it will add to the profitability, but it seems like they have really opened up the $2,500 infotainment upgrade to a lot of people. If anything it helps keep the service centers busy doing productive, profitable work. Also, most will be getting HW3 at the same time, which should help unlock more of the FSD money.

What if each upgrade netted in $700 of profit, plus $700 of released FSD money. And each of the 113 US service centers did two each week day for the rest of the quarter that would be ~$11M. So I guess not much, but every little bit helps right?

 

[joh01652]

$60k goes a lot further in TX than CA.


Also, if they don't like it, they can go found their own company. Seriously, these are the inherent risks you take when you are an employee.

Current economic environment, I bet a LOT of Tesla employees would move if necessary. Those that don't, that's just life, you find another job.

No one guarantees anyone anything. Welcome to life.

I agree.

I've worked in healthcare full-time for just over 11 years now. I got a great job right out of college, and for several years the honeymoon was great. But management changes, top-down restructuring, and ever-increasing workloads negatively altered the vibe of the place and my attitude. So I quit and got into traveling healthcare.

As bitter as I was towards the hospital at the time, my departure was the best thing that could have happened to me, and looking back now my only regret was not quitting sooner.

Going forward, Tesla will have to grow and adapt to new conditions, and the workers in turn will need to do the same. Some will thrive, some will stagnate, others will quit. But yeah that's life, nobody is guaranteed anything.

Tesla workers are free agents. If they don't like Tesla, they are free to find employment elsewhere. Just like the rest of us.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I guess you are referring to buying options. That is definitely gambling, and the odds (time, quote spread) are not in your favor.

Selling options (covered) is a whole different ball game. Time is your friend. And selling puts is a nice way to buy shares with a discount.

If the option doesn’t get exercised you get a nice 8-10% return in one month time (and you can immediately open a new position to repeat the process). If the shares do get assigned you can sell covered calls (short term or long term) for more returns.

Yeah, I just don't want shares called away. I don't buy PUTS because I have zero concerns about the long-term value of the shares, and don't feel like paying the house a premium for insurance I don't need. I don't sell (cash-covered) PUTS because I don't want to tie up capital in cash; I tie it up in SHARES...

Selling puts is too much of a long term commitment, IMHO. The wiggles of the trading channel move too quickly to predict for LEAP-type time frames, it's seldom more than 4-6 weeks to transit the trading range. Now we've done it twice in the past 10 trading days: (that's a whole lotta guessing in advance to profit from the churn; guess wrong, or get the timing wrong, and the house rakes your bet)


Note: the Chart above doesn't show it, but TSLA did touch the Upper-BB in After-hrs trading on Apr 29 (after Q1 Earnings), but slumped overnight in typical 'sell-the-news' Wall St. fashion.

@KarenRei has some success with her strategy of 'rolling-over' her options as the SP moves, but to me it's too much work, stress, and expense (my broker charges $20 per contract), especially when I know like 82% of the time where the SP is going, and more importantly the price for the inflection points.

IMHO, this pattern of SP movement (whipsawed @ 2x QQQ macros) will continue until TSLA is listed in the S&P 500. I think it'll be a different rodeo then, but also the world has changed post-covid, and I expect some effect on the macros themselves as the world readjusts.

Tesla China will be STELLAR. China has TWO space programs: CNSA and GF3! Germany will be massive, and will drag their auto industry (kicking, moaning, kvetching) into the EV future. Japan is the last hurdle for EV adoption, with their staid and orthodox automakers. But now, Tesla's newest Board Member brings a deep understanding of Japanese culture, industry, and finance. Imma call it right now: Mission: Possible! Together, Elon and Hiro will change Japan in a way MacArther never could. #Renewables

Here's on last short-term prediction for Tesla Battery Day: Wall St. will buy the rumor, and sell the news. Because the art of Japanese Kabuki Theatre demands and sets the form of the play.

Cheers!

 

[printf42]

Elon tweets:

Super exciting day coming up!

Spoiler

It’s about NASA mission.
Quick everyone jump to his timeline and ask about battery day!!!

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - this morning:

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don't know about that. Around 1992, when they switched back to the "Meatball", I was peripherally involved with a project at NASA Dryden (at Edwards AFB). I distinctly remember a strong push internally to "Bring back the Worm!".

Probably because it was easier to paint on the aircraft

 

[Sudre]

4) Fremont continues MX, MS, Roadster and perhaps experimental production techniques at much reduced work force. Company is no longer crippled by loss of Fremont production. Eventually, remaining lines are transfered to (second?) new US giga and Fremont is closed.

The only thing I would add to number 4 for clarification is Fremont could become the manufacturing engineering dream world. Few actual line workers since robots would start taking over every position. Engineers would far outnumber the line workers as they play with ideas on how to give robot hands better than humans. They could setup line segments then completely automate that segment, load it onto a truck and take it to another Giga in operation to switch out that piece with almost no down time.

Say for example there is a person that installs the steering wheel (making it up). Once the Fremont team figures out how to get a robot to do that function they can easily ship it off to a factory and insert it where the steering wheel guy once stood.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The only thing I would add to number 4 for clarification is Fremont could become the manufacturing engineering dream world. Few actual line workers since robots would start taking over every position. Engineers would far outnumber the line workers as they play with ideas on how to give robot hands better than humans. They could setup line segments then completely automate that segment, load it onto a truck and take it to another Giga in operation to switch out that piece with almost no down time.

Say for example there is a person that installs the steering wheel (making it up). Once the Fremont team figures out how to get a robot to do that function they can easily ship it off to a factory and insert it where the steering wheel guy once stood.

I think that would make a lot of sense, too.

 

[FrankSG]

I support all your decisions even when you wrongfully admonished me in the past.

Hope I’m doing better @FrankSG!

Until the SP gets to at least her mid range target, she’s useless too.

How about that @FrankSG ?

I was actually referring to your profile picture, not the content of your posts

I often skim over a lot of posts depending on how much time I have in the morning, but I usually enjoy the posts by you that I do read

 

[FreshPrince]

This is how I would see it unfolding (if it does at all):

1) New US Gigafactory opens with CT and battery manufacturing (at least one year from now?). By this time Giga Shanghai expansion is complete, Giga Berlin is at initial capacity.

2) Expand new US Giga capability for M3 and MY (so, what, at least two years from now?)

3) As demand dictates, begin ramping down Fremont and transferring its M3 and MY manufacturing to new US Giga. For employees that want to transfer to the nice, shiny, new Giga, there will likely be promotion potential. For those that don't want to leave, the layoffs begin as production shrinks. Depending on contraction rate, perhaps this could be handled through hiring freeze and natural attrition. It happens all the time. (three to four years from now?)

4) Fremont continues MX, MS, Roadster and perhaps experimental production techniques at much reduced work force. Company is no longer crippled by loss of Fremont production. Eventually, remaining lines are transfered to (second?) new US giga and Fremont is closed.

0) Tesla will move it's headquarters to the newly announced Terafactory.

I believe this is a bargaining chip and based on Musk's tone I think he already made up his mind.

 

[oldTAVguy]

I was actually referring to your profile picture, not the content of your posts

I often skim over a lot of posts depending on how much time I have in the morning, but I usually enjoy the posts by you that I do read

It's love.

 

[LJS22]

Anyone get the feeling Elon is going to make Giga/Tera Texas announcement next week? At that point he’ll have full freedom to continue to operate in Fremont, he can essentially for the first time make plans regarding Tesla’s future as this gives him a timeline and it’s pretty clear the offers have been flying in all week.

- I expect he’ll make good on his promise to move HQ
- Texas seems obvious.
- battery day will get a finalized date
- I also expect a Tesla HVAC home system to be announced soon as he’s been dropping hints on this recently (following Q2 earnings)

News should be coming in hard and fast once Fremont is back to full production.

 

[JRP3]

I think I personally would have left his post and not banned him, exactly because of those reasons: he was up front about his intentions and he put a lot of effort in writing that elaborate post. Also, it doesn’t hurt to hear what the ‘other side’ has to say (preferably only once in a while). If there’s support for it then I can repost what he wrote (and you can all have a swing at it).

So if a banned troll is nice about violating the rules again and puts in a lot of effort it's OK? This was his typical false concern trolling and he disrupted the forum for months, there was nothing in his post which was worthwhile.

Yeah, I'm falling into the trap of trying to be helpful. Personally I saw nothing of value in his posting, but probably should have just done nothing. Having said that I would not vote to restore it or him. I will try harder to do nothing.

I'd say you made the right call on this one.

 

[ggies07]

Quick everyone jump to his timeline and ask about battery day!!!
[/spoiler]

Seriously. I need to know so I can block off my work calendar so no "video meetings" occur then!!

 

[wtlloyd]

Below is a screenshot from Fox news form today (I am a liberal, but it is always good to see both sides of the story).

OK, I realize these are most likely not correlated - a surprise win for the Republicans in the Democratic bastion California and Tesla being abused by Democrats in California.

BUT, it actually might have been an influence in the election, with Californians being pissed off at their government for kicking out Tesla out of the state.

But even if kicking out Tesla did not cause Democrats to lose the election, I am pretty sure the Democratic leaders (Pelosi et al) are very very worried that it might have been an important factor - and the presidential elections are only a few months away.

Which means that they will be much more careful and considerate with dealing with Elon now

At this point Elon has the best of both worlds - Republicans are very very happy with him, Tesla became overnight an all American brand even in the Bible belt, and Democrats are/will do everything to make Elon happy


View attachment 541366

WOW, man. I don't know if you are actually in the EU, but that's still no excuse for being so far out wrong in everything you said. You could google this stuff, ya know. Going back to 1993, which is kinda the modern political era of Reich wing ascendency, the Democrats have held that seat a total of 11 months, out of 26 years. Hardly a Democratic base. This is desert country, people here like off roading, motorcycles and ATV's, guns and tri-tip/pulled pork. It has built into a bedroom community of Los Angeles, there is a massive commute down south via the 5, 14 and 15 every weekday.
What Democratic leaders don't like is Billionaires who think they can roll over elected officials. They know that the general public is not well served by an autocrat who demands to do as he pleases without working through the channels.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

This is how I would see it unfolding (if it does at all):

1) New US Gigafactory opens with CT and battery manufacturing (at least one year from now?). By this time Giga Shanghai expansion is complete, Giga Berlin is at initial capacity.

2) Expand new US Giga capability for M3 and MY (so, what, at least two years from now?)

3) As demand dictates, begin ramping down Fremont and transferring its M3 and MY manufacturing to new US Giga. For employees that want to transfer to the nice, shiny, new Giga, there will likely be promotion potential. For those that don't want to leave, the layoffs begin as production shrinks. Depending on contraction rate, perhaps this could be handled through hiring freeze and natural attrition. It happens all the time. (three to four years from now?)

4) Fremont continues MX, MS, Roadster and perhaps experimental production techniques at much reduced work force. Company is no longer crippled by loss of Fremont production. Eventually, remaining lines are transfered to (second?) new US giga and Fremont is closed.

That’s exactly what I was thinking. And I bet Elon was planning it long before the factory lockdown drama.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Wed, May 13, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $793.84
Volume: 19,065,148
Traded: $15,134,615,010.14 ($15.13 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.63%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 38.7% (41st Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 58.7% (60th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt volume back down to 0.97% of Short Volume today (vs. 5.6% yesterday).

Comment: "Macros swoon; TSLA does a half-pike"