Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I've been thinking about what we all think is the giant casting machine being built at GF Shanghai:-

• it is big
• it is taking time to build (perhaps the first time Tesla has done this)
• it is complex

My conclusion, it is very unlikely that a casting machine of the same size currently exists in Fremont..

From that guess, I made some speculative assumptions...

I when Tesla found a way to build Model Y at Fremont, part of that way involved using imported casting machines the size of a house and 2 piece casting.

So building Model Y in Fremont was only temporary there were lots of good reasons to do that. But one additional reason is the large casting machine can be fully built and validated in China before the US and German versions start construction. If there are expensive mistakes/surprises that require reworking, China is the best place for that.

To me that giant casting machine looks more like the size of 3 houses not one house.... I can't see how something like that could have been built at Fremont with no one noticing.

So it is possible, perhaps even likely, that Model Y construction at Fremont was only ever temporary, so I have a hunch it may totally leave Fremont once a giant casting machine has been built in Texas.

When Model Y moves out the casting machines can be used to make a 2 piece casting for the Model 3

I have a, additional hunch that if they can move Model Y totally out of Fremont by around June 2021, they can set up Semi production at Fremont.

My ballpark idea of a semi is 12 Model 3 packs, (50 x 12 = 600, 75 x 12 = 900 - charging 4 x 250 kW) that has probably been refined over time.

Model 3 might move out of Fremont eventually, the final configuration could then be:-

• 100K Model S/X
• 10-20K Roadster
• 100K Semis

In terms of production Tesla could do this easily, in terms of moving battery packs, from GF1 that is 2K Semis per week and hence 24K Model 3 packs...

GF1 doesn't currently have that capacity and that is a lot of packs to transport even with Tesla semis..

So perhaps like Model Y the semi moves to Fremont on a temporary basis, with lower production volumes, or perhaps it staying at Fremont and they bring in packs from multiple locations, or spin up pack production for the Semi at Fremont..

It is 50/50 if Model 3 production would stay at Fremont or eventually move the Texas, the one thing moving Model 3 does is make plenty of room at Fremont..

On the production volumes above, paint at Fremont should be no issue, having Semi production at Fremont means it is less likely local health authorities would close it for any length of time. Road transport is essential, especially if that involves efficient electric trucks which can platoon.

As I say this all speculation, but I'm fairly confident Fremont doesn't currently have a giant casting machine.

 

[FrankSG]

I don't find the TSLAQ crowd to be funny or sad. I actually find them to be genuinely evil. people running a deliberate, concentrated disinformation, stock-manipulation and harassment campaign to try and put a company out of business... I just have no words.

What they do is a disgrace in any situation, but trying to take down probably the best company we currently have in terms of trying to actually turn the tide against catastrophic climate change... thats just evil. Evil, stupid and destructive.

If by some miracle mankind makes it through climate change with society mostly intact, when people look back at TSLAQ they wont see misguided people, or gullible people, or cheeky or greedy people. They will see evil, twisted, maniacs who should have been thrown in prison by now. I have ZERO respect for them. They belong in a cell. I cheer every time I think one of them loses money. I hope mark spiegel ends up destitute and flipping burgers after his dumb parents finally realize he destroyed their life's savings and ruined their lives as well as his, and take their revenge on him.

I know we are supposed to rise above it, and be the good guys, but the TSLAQ crowd deserve no such courtesy. Screw them. I hope every single one of them ruins their lives (inevitable once we have the y ramp-up,semi and FSD).

I don't look at it this way at all. Perhaps you could label their actions as evil, but I don't think you can label any of these individuals (or almost any human being for that matter) as evil.

The reason for that is that we just don't have enough information about their lives, backgrounds, and reasons for doing what they're doing. I bet that someone like Aaron Greenspan, who's dedicating his time to fabricating disinformation about EVs and Tesla, had a pretty rough childhood and/or went through some severe trauma during his life to end up in a place as filled with hate as the one he seems to be in.

For a lot of TSLAQ folk, I wouldn't be surprised if they're suffering from loneliness/isolation, and simply need a place to belong. The TSLAQ community might be a way to make up for a lack of strong family ties and a life of rejection/isolation. Can you really label a human, who's simply trying to fulfill one of his most basic needs (human connection), as evil?

I'm theorizing here of course, but I'm skeptical that these people had a great life filled with love, and good role models. If they did, and they nonetheless, aware of what they were doing, decided to join TSLAQ and participated in TSLAQ's harmful efforts, then yes, I guess that could be considered evil. I doubt that's the case though, and either way, I don't think we have the information to make that judgement call.

 

[ggr]

Haha, as long as it wasn't LARTs.
(I think it means Large Attitude Re-adjustment tool, or a 2"by4")

Almost right. Close enough.

 

[EinSV]

They had already sold ~90% of their holdings prior to Q1. Price T Rowe used to hold 16M TSLA shares in late 2018, but owned <2M at the end of 2019.

View attachment 542284

Nice timing

 

[mblakele]

James Dyson interview: how I blew £500m on electric car to rival Tesla | Rich List | The Sunday Times
Does anyone have access to this article? Im guessing it will just say Tesla was too far ahead to catch.

Here's a bit more — but still a tease. Perhaps someone else can post more.

First proper look at James Dyson's failed electric car as entrepreneur tops Sunday Times Rich List for first time

[...] James Dyson scrapped the project in October last year, claiming it was not commercially viable. [...]

The development car was dubbed N526 internally. The model pictured with Dyson above is the first that ran. “I drove it secretly in a screened-off compound we have here,” he told the paper.

If the Dyson car had made it to production, it would have had the longest range of any electric car on the market, it is claimed: a whopping 600 miles per charge. The long-range Tesla Model S, by comparison, can ‘only’ manage 379 miles, officially. The full range would have been possible “even on a freezing February night, on the naughty side of 70mph on the motorway, with the heater on and the radio at full blast”, according to the article.

Assuming the N526’s lithium ion battery pack behaves like every other electric car’s, the range would have been lessened by a more spirited driving style. Which would have been tempting given the claimed sportscar-like performance figures: the Dyson car’s twin electric motors are said to produce 536bhp and 480 lb ft of torque, allowing for zero to 62mph in 4.8sec — less than half a second off a Tesla Model X long range — despite its big battery pack resulting in a truck-like 2,600kg overall weight. Top speed is a claimed 125mph.

Like the Model X, the N526 seats seven adults, though it’s actually longer and taller than the Tesla: the vast (aluminium) structure measures five metres long, two metres wide and 1.7 metres tall. Wheels claimed to be bigger than any car on the market and a windscreen raked “more steeply than on a Ferrari” contribute to a fairly sporty design. Its similarities to models from Jaguar Land Rover, such as the Range Rover, Velar and I-Pace (Jag’s first pure-electric model) is there for all to see, however.

The “thin and firmly upholstered” seats have rounded headrests, lending them “the look of a lollipop.”,according to writer John Arlidge, who also notes storage bins that “look like pull-out filing cabinets” and driver instrumentation shown purely via head-up display.

The project cost the entrepreneur £500m of his own money, according Rich List 2020, because Dyson is a private company rather than shareholder-owned. For that reason, the decision to pull the plug must have stung. Hard. The article is the first in which James Dyson has expressed just what a personal blow its failure was. “There’s huge sadness and disappointment,” he told the paper. “Ours is a life of risk and of failure. We try things and they fail. Life isn’t easy.”

To read the full reasons for the project’s failure, in Dyson’s own words, and about how the technology developed for the N526 and beyond (including solid-state batteries) might not go to waste, read the full interview in The Sunday Times this weekend or click here to read it at thesundaytimes.co.uk.

[...]​

 

[JRP3]

I bet that someone like Aaron Greenspan, who's dedicating his time to fabricating disinformation about EVs and Tesla, had a pretty rough childhood and/or went through some severe trauma during his life...

So did many people, including Elon. No excuse. They are actively working to destroy one of if not the most important company of the century, to the detriment of humanity as a whole. They are evil and I don't care about their backstory.

 

[StealthP3D]

Thanks for the clarification, I was wrong.

Yes, the TSLA-bull in me swapped "index composition" for "S&P 500 inclusion."

You weren't totally wrong, The rules for S&P 500 are not set in concrete and neither are the rules for being discarded. It's completely at the discretion of the body that runs it. The rules exist to maintain a strong semblance of consistency and to avoid the appearance of favoritism, bias and general chaos but they do use their own discretion when they feel the net effect is favorable to the index and that the candidate belongs.

It wouldn't surprise me to see TSLA enter the S&P 500 soon using either route (by meeting the criteria or by being accepted in advance of meeting the criteria).

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
If the Dyson car had made it to production, it would have had the longest range of any electric car on the market, it is claimed: a whopping 600 miles per charge. The long-range Tesla Model S, by comparison, can ‘only’ manage 379 miles, officially. The full range would have been possible “even on a freezing February night, on the naughty side of 70mph on the motorway, with the heater on and the radio at full blast”, according to the article.
...
​

​

Let's see if I can find the right combination of emojis.

 

[Steve m]

#tslaq has become irrelevant.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't look at it this way at all. Perhaps you could label their actions as evil, but I don't think you can label any of these individuals (or almost any human being for that matter) as evil.

The reason for that is that we just don't have enough information about their lives, backgrounds, and reasons for doing what they're doing. I bet that someone like Aaron Greenspan, who's dedicating his time to fabricating disinformation about EVs and Tesla, had a pretty rough childhood and/or went through some severe trauma during his life to end up in a place as filled with hate as the one he seems to be in.

For a lot of TSLAQ folk, I wouldn't be surprised if they're suffering from loneliness/isolation, and simply need a place to belong. The TSLAQ community might be a way to make up for a lack of strong family ties and a life of rejection/isolation. Can you really label a human, who's simply trying to fulfill one of his most basic needs (human connection), as evil?

I'm theorizing here of course, but I'm skeptical that these people had a great life filled with love, and good role models. If they did, and they nonetheless, aware of what they were doing, decided to join TSLAQ and participated in TSLAQ's harmful efforts, then yes, I guess that could be considered evil. I doubt that's the case though, and either way, I don't think we have the information to make that judgement call.

Well to be honest Frank, I'm quite far left on the spectrum and I didn't expect to run into someone on a TSLA investment forum even further to the left of me!

To be more serious, I have great compassion for those who are disadvantaged in their formative years. But when many (probably most) of the TESLAQ trolls of note come from economically advantaged households and they still are doing evil, my leash becomes a lot shorter. I won't go so far as to call the person evil but, at some point, an adult has to own their actions, especially when those actions are deliberate and continuing. I would definitely make an exception for a TESLAQ troll still early in years as they might not have found their way yet. But the leaders of the movement, and the ones most effective at slowing mankind's movement to healthier and more sustainable technologies, are almost all old enough and experienced enough to know exactly what they are doing. It's not a mistake or a bad decision at that point, it's premeditated and planned. If that can't be strongly condemned and the people who do it held in contempt, then where does it stop? The science says the threat we are facing is potentially catastrophic to life as we know it.

I bet almost all people who take another's life in a premeditated manner didn't necessarily have the best upbringing either (and I recognise that's not always due to economics). And, heaven forbid, child-molesters and sexual predators. Where does it end? At some point, an adult needs to take responsibility for their actions and how they affect the world we all live in. In other words, the TESLAQ peanut gallery is unfortunate (that it exists and functions), but those who spend a lot of time (and often money) strategizing and furthering the movement deserve to be held to a higher standard.

 

[goinfraftw]

Well to be honest Frank, I'm quite far left on the spectrum and I didn't expect to run into someone on a TSLA investment forum even further to the left of me!

To be more serious, I have great compassion for those who are disadvantaged in their formative years. But when many (probably most) of the TESLAQ trolls of note come from economically advantaged households and they still are doing evil, my leash becomes a lot shorter. I won't go so far as to call the person evil but, at some point, an adult has to own their actions, especially when those actions are deliberate and continuing. I would definitely make an exception for a TESLAQ troll still early in years as they might not have found their way yet. But the leaders of the movement, and the ones most effective at slowing mankind's movement to healthier and more sustainable technologies, are almost all old enough and experienced enough to know exactly what they are doing. It's not a mistake or a bad decision at that point, it's premeditated and planned. If that can't be strongly condemned and the people who do it held in contempt, then where does it stop? The science says the threat we are facing is potentially catastrophic to life as we know it.

Agree w/ everything said. I come from a mostly single-income immigrant family and live in CA, USA. My parents worked in manufacturing as an accountant and (for a few years) assembly line worker. I, too, have great compassion for those coming from disadvantage households and a very short leash for those coming from advantaged households (and continue to put themselves over their own family, friends, society, etc.).

Frankly, this is a scenario where everyone needs to come together on as a society and say, "f it - we're going to make sure life survives for the future."

 

[MarcoRP]

Apparently the first V3 Supercharger in Taiwan is under construction at the National University of Taiwan in Taipei. It’s a massive campus of course, but I should get the specific details tomorrow.

 

[FrankSG]

Apparently the first V3 Supercharger in Taiwan is under construction at the National University of Taiwan in Taipei. It’s a massive campus of course, but I should get the specific details tomorrow.View attachment 542301

I was there in October of last year! Too bad I didn't get a chance to see this.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My conclusion, it is very unlikely that a casting machine of the same size currently exists in Fremont..

Casting for Fremont is done at Lathrop.

 

[Sudre]

They had already sold ~90% of their holdings prior to Q1. Price T Rowe used to hold 16M TSLA shares in late 2018, but owned <2M at the end of 2019.

View attachment 542284

They are probably realizing they should have held on to them. LOL
I think there was another one that had TSLA and it is at negatives for the year too.... altho I a lot of funds are in the negatives so far this year.

Kind of glad my IRA is like 90% TSLA. I get to make fun of Edward Jones when they calls me for ideas. LOL

 

[FrankSG]

Well to be honest Frank, I'm quite far left on the spectrum and I didn't expect to run into someone on a TSLA investment forum even further to the left of me!

I'm not into politics whatsoever. I don't even know what left and right are besides two opposites on a spectrum of political opinions?

To be more serious, I have great compassion for those who are disadvantaged in their formative years. But when many (probably most) of the TESLAQ trolls of note come from economically advantaged households and they still are doing evil, my leash becomes a lot shorter. I won't go so far as to call the person evil but, at some point, an adult has to own their actions, especially when those actions are deliberate and continuing. I would definitely make an exception for a TESLAQ troll still early in years as they might not have found their way yet. But the leaders of the movement, and the ones most effective at slowing mankind's movement to healthier and more sustainable technologies, are almost all old enough and experienced enough to know exactly what they are doing. It's not a mistake or a bad decision at that point, it's premeditated and planned. If that can't be strongly condemned and the people who do it held in contempt, then where does it stop? The science says the threat we are facing is potentially catastrophic to life as we know it.

I bet almost all people who take another's life in a premeditated manner didn't necessarily have the best upbringing either (and I recognise that's not always due to economics). And, heaven forbid, child-molesters and sexual predators. Where does it end? At some point, an adult needs to take responsibility for their actions and how they affect the world we all live in. In other words, the TESLAQ peanut gallery is unfortunate (that it exists and functions), but those who spend a lot of time (and often money) strategizing and furthering the movement deserve to be held to a higher standard.

*I typed out this post, and then re-reading yours I noticed the "and I recognise that's not always due to economics". so I guess you don't believe that. So forgive me for incorrectly starting off this post with that statement.*

Correct me if I'm wrong, but these arguments sound like they're based on the belief that money = happiness. Growing up in an economically advantaged/disadvantaged household does probably correlate somewhat with a good/bad upbringing, but I'd be very careful to think those are one and the same.

It's probably an unpopular opinion, and I'd guess most people disagree with this, but I believe that generally not the individuals are to blame, but some part of the system. Either their parents, their education (imo every single education system is terrible), and/or bad circumstances. Of course there are people like Elon and Steve Jobs (adoption), who manage to overcome adversity, but I've been through some bad times myself, and the biggest thing I've learned is that in certain cases you can't claim to understand how others feel. Especially when it comes to pain/suffering, the rabbit hole goes deeper than a lot of people can imagine.

I'm open to changing my belief if given enough evidence to the contrary, but as of right now I don't believe that humans end up doing evil things if they grow up well, don't experience major trauma, and have all their basic needs met, which goes beyond food/water/sleep/housing and includes human connection, and physical and emotional well-being.

Maybe the problem is that that's still too uncommon in today's society in spite of all of our advances. But instead of punishing and hating the people who do bad/evil things, I'd rather focus on fixing the things that caused them to do those things in the first place. I don't mean to say we should give out hugs instead of prison sentences.... although... now that I think about it, I reckon people would commit less crimes afterwards if they were given hugs & compassion for 5-10 years instead of spending 5-10 years in prison

I came across this Reddit post a month ago asking about people who adopted children above the age of 5. I'd say at least about half of the stories are pretty rough. Don't think this is where my beliefs come from, because I've thought this way for much much longer, but even I was kind of surprised by how bad this was:

[Serious] Parents who have adopted a older child (5 and up), how has it gone for you? - Reddit

 

[Buckminster]

Casting for Fremont is done at Lathrop.

The new gigafactories are going to great. 2 years ago, Nevada and Lathrop feeding Freemont was state of the art, making other OEM's supply chains look ancient. Now, all we can see is the inefficiency of three sites that should have been one from the start. Elon was indeed human in 2010 when he bought NUMMI...

 

[Buckminster]

Well to be honest Frank, I'm quite far left on the spectrum and I didn't expect to run into someone on a TSLA investment forum even further to the left of me!

To be more serious, I have great compassion for those who are disadvantaged in their formative years. But when many (probably most) of the TESLAQ trolls of note come from economically advantaged households and they still are doing evil, my leash becomes a lot shorter. I won't go so far as to call the person evil but, at some point, an adult has to own their actions, especially when those actions are deliberate and continuing. I would definitely make an exception for a TESLAQ troll still early in years as they might not have found their way yet. But the leaders of the movement, and the ones most effective at slowing mankind's movement to healthier and more sustainable technologies, are almost all old enough and experienced enough to know exactly what they are doing. It's not a mistake or a bad decision at that point, it's premeditated and planned. If that can't be strongly condemned and the people who do it held in contempt, then where does it stop? The science says the threat we are facing is potentially catastrophic to life as we know it.

I bet almost all people who take another's life in a premeditated manner didn't necessarily have the best upbringing either (and I recognise that's not always due to economics). And, heaven forbid, child-molesters and sexual predators. Where does it end? At some point, an adult needs to take responsibility for their actions and how they affect the world we all live in. In other words, the TESLAQ peanut gallery is unfortunate (that it exists and functions), but those who spend a lot of time (and often money) strategizing and furthering the movement deserve to be held to a higher standard.

TSLAQ community is exactly what you should expect from Homosapiens - chimps throwing poop at one another. It's a miracle that our world works as well as it does. That's not to say that it can't be improved.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I never really thought much about V2G, but I saw a couple videos about it, and I can see this being a huge upside for TSLA. If people can charge their batteries at low rates and sell the electricity back at a higher rate, then Tesla could offer people the option to have the battery be basically free if Tesla keeps 100% of the revenue, or you can buy it and keep 100% of the revenue yourself, or some points in between. I could image that demand would skyrocket if the price of each car dropped $7500 or more because you buy the car w/o the battery and Tesla provides you one for free. If anything happens to the battery, Tesla just gives you another one. Tesla then gets millions of rolling power walls out there that can be generating revenue.

Maybe I'm missing something or misunderstand it, but this seems like it would be an amazing battery day announcement.

 

[Mo City]

So for the V2G thing, is it a matter of charging overnight at a lower cost and then selling back to the grid during the high-demand daytime? Is a Powerwall required?