Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Here’s the link to the rumored GigaTexas site from the city of Hutto webpage Welcome to City of Hutto, TX

Anyone familiar with the distribution of wind power on the ERCOT (Texas) electrical grid? Any chance Giga Texas is the first Gigafactory powered by 100% renewables?

The Austin / San Antonio region looks to be outside the strongest wind zones in the North. So how does the Texas grid deliver wind power?

We've already heard that Texas categorizes battery storage as power generation. How will that affect Tesla's permitting process to add Megapacks for Giga Texas?

Cheers!

 

[ggr]

Those numbers seem off by a factor of 1000
Google search for "surface area of Earth" returns a land area of 57.51 million mi², which is 148,950,216.23 sq km or about 150M sq km
that's about 15T squares
cube root : ~25K

Ah, the old "misplaced the decimal point" trick!

 

[smorgasbord]

Is fit and finish issue something one should bet INFINITE losses on?

I'm not justifying their approach nor agreeing with their conclusions, I'm pointing out that not everything they say is completely wrong.

For instance, I think there's risk in the Solar City acquisition lawsuits going against Tesla. If so, will it be a $40M slap on the wrist like "Funding secured" (which I think was the wrong decision, btw, and support Elon since he said "considering"), or will it be a more serious penalty?

 

[Singuy]

I'm not justifying their approach nor agreeing with their conclusions, I'm pointing out that not everything they say is completely wrong.

For instance, I think there's risk in the Solar City acquisition lawsuits going against Tesla. If so, will it be a $40M slap on the wrist like "Funding secured" (which I think was the wrong decision, btw, and support Elon since he said "considering"), or will it be a more serious penalty?

Betting against Tesla's stock and deciding to short Tesla because of fit and finish is completely wrong. Thinking Tesla cars are not built well due to fit and finish is a valid statement.

Q usually doesn't say things that are wrong factually. They just bet their money on these facts which is completely wrong (aka making a minor issue into a major one). They all get fixated on the smallest issues and fail to look at the big picture, then triple down on it. Instead of thinking, oh people probably doesn't care about fit and finished, but instead they insist that not enough people know about the problem so we have to educate the masses because it's a crusade for righteousness.

 

[mickle]

Which one in that photo is Lora?

"On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog"

 

[smorgasbord]

Tc spends just as much time or more like us on Tesla research. How is this worth his time when you have lost 20-30x your money since Tesla inception while someone like Dave on YouTube has made 20-30x his money.

Given TSLA's gyrations, it's entirely possible that playing the short smartly (go short as TSLA increases, cover as it decreases) could have resulted in as much profits as being long. Between stock ownership and options, I've made quite a bit of money being long on TSLA (although I haven't done options in a couple years), but I could see where an attentive short position could have been very profitable as well.

FWIW, I talked about a possible impact to TSLA from the Solar City acquistion lawsuits. You responded, again, with a fit and finish example.

How about addressing the potential risks with the SC lawsuits? Do you see any? Assuming you do (and I'd like to hear your rationale if you don't), how large a potential impact could that be? Remember, at least one prominent TSLAQ-ian became so because of what he saw with that process - so do you just dismiss that as readily as you do fit and finish?

 

[Singuy]

Given TSLA's gyrations, it's entirely possible that playing the short smartly (go short as TSLA increases, cover as it decreases) could have resulted in as much profits as being long. Between stock ownership and options, I've made quite a bit of money being long on TSLA (although I haven't done options in a couple years), but I could see where an attentive short position could have been very profitable as well.

FWIW, I talked about a possible impact to TSLA from the Solar City acquistion lawsuits. You responded, again, with a fit and finish example.

How about addressing the potential risks with the SC lawsuits? Do you see any? Assuming you do (and I'd like to hear your rationale if you don't), how large a potential impact could that be? Remember, at least one prominent TSLAQ-ian became so because of what he saw with that process - so do you just dismiss that as readily as you do fit and finish?

Hard to prove the solar city was a bail out when there have been 3 versions of the solar roof and now it's mass producing. "Not making money" out of the buy out is also not a good argument since many companies buy out other smaller companies just to pick it apart. Most acquisitions historically speaking are money losers from most companies. Are those all bail outs? Look at maxwell stocks, not exactly making stellar returns prior to the buy out. Another bailout? How come no one is complaining about Maxwell?

Lots to prove and I see it as a nothing burger.

 

[smorgasbord]

Hard to prove the solar city was a bail out when there have been 3 versions of the solar roof and now it's mass producing. "Not making money" out of the buy out is also not a good argument since many companies buy out other smaller companies just to pick it apart. Most acquisitions historically speaking are money losers from most companies. Are those all bail outs? Look at maxwell stocks, not exactly making stellar returns prior to the buy out. Another bailout? How come no one is complaining about Maxwell?

Lots to prove and I see it as a nothing burger.

So, it was so much a "nothing burger" that ALL of Tesla's Board of Directors, except Elon, settled out of court? In total, they paid out $60M, from insurance - which led to Musk now self-insuring the Tesla BoD. Not quite a "nothing" in my book. Also, that it's taken almost 3 years to get the product to market shows that it was far from ready when Tesla bought Solar City. If anything, it points to the technology being developed AFTER the acquisition.

From Tesla's Elon Musk knew SolarCity faced a 'liquidity crisis' at time of 2016 deal, legal documents show :

Tesla CEO Elon Musk knew at the time of the 2016 acquisition of SolarCity that the solar installer was facing a liquidity crunch, according to newly unearthed emails between Musk and ex-SolarCity finance chief Brad Buss.

and

The plaintiffs allege that Musk was able to get the SolarCity acquisition approved only by misrepresenting the financial well-being of the solar installer, saying it should be cash-flow positive within six months. No other financial experts agreed with that assessment, the plaintiffs argued, and due diligence by outside firms including Evercore was rushed to hide SolarCity’s troubles.

Musk himself is quoted in his deposition as saying:

But in a stunningly rare moment of contrition, Musk expressed regret over the decision at his deposition, part of a class-action shareholder suit that’s gained momentum in recent months. “At the time I thought it made strategic sense for Tesla and SolarCity to combine. Hindsight is 20-20,” Musk said. “If I could wind back the clock, you know, I would say probably would have let SolarCity execute by itself.”

from Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Musk was his usual combative self in the deposition: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03...-s-SolarCity-suit-deposition--the-highlights/


About the best news that I can see is that the rest of the BoD was only penalized $60M. If that's the order of magnitude for this lawsuit (not the $2.6B being asked for), then it's certainly something survivable - Musk can pay that from his CA home property sales.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Anyone familiar with the distribution of wind power on the ERCOT (Texas) electrical grid? Any chance Giga Texas is the first Gigafactory powered by 100% renewables?

The Austin / San Antonio region looks to be outside the strongest wind zones in the North. So how does the Texas grid deliver wind power?

We've already heard that Texas categorizes battery storage as power generation. How will that affect Tesla's permitting process to add Megapacks for Giga Texas?

Cheers!

The Public Utilities Commision of Texas developed the CREZ transmission system to get the wind power from the Panhandle and Permian Basin to the Texaplex. Read all about it here:

https://cleanenergysolutions.org/si...nts/jeff-billo_webinar-ercot-crez-process.pdf



Austin commercial customers should be able to specify 100% renewable credits.

 

[Causalien]

aa

So, it was so much a "nothing burger" that ALL of Tesla's Board of Directors, except Elon, settled out of court? In total, they paid out $60M, from insurance - which led to Musk now self-insuring the Tesla BoD. Not quite a "nothing" in my book. Also, that it's taken almost 3 years to get the product to market shows that it was far from ready when Tesla bought Solar City. If anything, it points to the technology being developed AFTER the acquisition.

From Tesla's Elon Musk knew SolarCity faced a 'liquidity crisis' at time of 2016 deal, legal documents show :


and


Musk himself is quoted in his deposition as saying:

from Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Musk was his usual combative self in the deposition: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03...-s-SolarCity-suit-deposition--the-highlights/


About the best news that I can see is that the rest of the BoD was only penalized $60M. If that's the order of magnitude for this lawsuit (not the $2.6B being asked for), then it's certainly something survivable - Musk can pay that from his CA home property sales.

Good. He needed this.

 

[RobStark]

Weekend O.T.

ICEv Safety first 32 seconds. I am a fan of this channel and this video but posted for first 32 seconds.

 

[Singuy]

So, it was so much a "nothing burger" that ALL of Tesla's Board of Directors, except Elon, settled out of court? In total, they paid out $60M, from insurance - which led to Musk now self-insuring the Tesla BoD. Not quite a "nothing" in my book. Also, that it's taken almost 3 years to get the product to market shows that it was far from ready when Tesla bought Solar City. If anything, it points to the technology being developed AFTER the acquisition.

From Tesla's Elon Musk knew SolarCity faced a 'liquidity crisis' at time of 2016 deal, legal documents show :


and


Musk himself is quoted in his deposition as saying:

from Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Musk was his usual combative self in the deposition: https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03...-s-SolarCity-suit-deposition--the-highlights/


About the best news that I can see is that the rest of the BoD was only penalized $60M. If that's the order of magnitude for this lawsuit (not the $2.6B being asked for), then it's certainly something survivable - Musk can pay that from his CA home property sales.

More than a year since Maxwell acquisition and I don't see any ultra capacitors in the cars or any dry electric diodes being pushed out. Must be pointing to a tech that is being developed AFTER the acquisition huh. Looking at their stock price, it was tanking down to 3 dollars a share, all time low for the company. Must be bailing out a second cousin's wife or something.

 

[smorgasbord]

More than a year since Maxwell acquisition and I don't see any ultra capacitors in the cars or any dry electric diodes being pushed out. Must be pointing to a tech that is being developed AFTER the acquisition huh. Looking at their stock price, it was tanking down to 3 dollars a share, all time low for the company. Must be bailing out a second cousin's wife or something.

That's a completely false equivalence. The Maxell acquisition didn't require shareholder approval, whereas Solar City did - and information was presented to us shareholders for that approval that is now being challenged as not being accurate - and the accusation is that Musk knew that presented information wasn't accurate.

EDIT: Including that Musk was promising that the technology was not just ready, but that the roofs on the movie set homes were the actual product, ready for sale.

 

[Thumper]

OT Here's the entire sequence Smorgasboard was referring to. It is very insightful and valuable.
Why Don't Americans Trust Experts Anymore? | Amanpour and Company

 

[dc_h]

Anyone familiar with the distribution of wind power on the ERCOT (Texas) electrical grid? Any chance Giga Texas is the first Gigafactory powered by 100% renewables?

The Austin / San Antonio region looks to be outside the strongest wind zones in the North. So how does the Texas grid deliver wind power?

We've already heard that Texas categorizes battery storage as power generation. How will that affect Tesla's permitting process to add Megapacks for Giga Texas?

Cheers!

Austin is very sophisticated about renewables. They’ve done a steady migration to wind and solar, so each year they’ve been able to reduce per watt costs 5-10% and by the time the original contracts are up, they’ll be all renewable and continue to drive down costs.

 

[smorgasbord]

Weekend O.T.

ICEv Safety first 32 seconds. I am a fan of this channel and this video but posted for first 32 seconds.

The third episode, the mail-lady showing up, made Last Night Tonight with John Oliver.

 

[ggies07]

I'm not sure what's going on with Elon, we all know he talks about simulations, etc, but I didn't realize this phrase was now connect to Trump and ultra conservatives....

 

[willow_hiller]

I'm not sure what's going on with Elon, we all know he talks about simulations, etc, but I didn't realize this phrase was now connect to Trump and ultra conservatives....

Given the context of his recent tweets, I wouldn't be surprised if he's just making a Matrix reference after literally taking a red pill (DayQuil): Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[bkp_duke]

Anyone familiar with the distribution of wind power on the ERCOT (Texas) electrical grid? Any chance Giga Texas is the first Gigafactory powered by 100% renewables?

The Austin / San Antonio region looks to be outside the strongest wind zones in the North. So how does the Texas grid deliver wind power?

We've already heard that Texas categorizes battery storage as power generation. How will that affect Tesla's permitting process to add Megapacks for Giga Texas?

Cheers!

Lived in TX for 10 years (Dallas area). In most parts of the state, electric power is deregulated and there is very strong competition. You can buy power from a producer across the state, say if you want to go 100% wind or another renewable.

As a customer, you get one bill, but the charges are actually from two separate companies:
1) the company that runs the delivery (polls transformers, etc.) - this is usually say 2-3c/kwh for power delivery for residential customers
2) the company that produces the power - this varies considerably, but customers have a great deal of choice (Power To Choose | Home)

This kind of free market has been a huge boon for power in TX. Power rates are low, the grid is reliable, and renewables have been able to compete against fossil fuels on price and gain an increasing fraction of the power generation capacity of the state.

More info here:
The Ultimate Guide to Texas Electricity Deregulation – Electric Choice



Needless to say, when my family moved to San Diego . . . we got sticker shock on power rates. Went 100% solar + batteries just to give SDG&E the big middle finger. But that is a side point.

 

[jerry33]

Anyone familiar with the distribution of wind power on the ERCOT (Texas) electrical grid? Any chance Giga Texas is the first Gigafactory powered by 100% renewables?

The Austin / San Antonio region looks to be outside the strongest wind zones in the North. So how does the Texas grid deliver wind power?

We've already heard that Texas categorizes battery storage as power generation. How will that affect Tesla's permitting process to add Megapacks for Giga Texas?

Cheers!

Second question first. For private usage (res or comm) it doesn't matter. It's only the electricity suppliers such as OnCore that are penalized.

Wind power is carried by transmission lines. Regardless of the wind strength in the area, if it's not near a transmission line it won't be built (unless the builder wishes to pay--it's a lot). There are a few other rules, but near an existing transmission line is the main one.