Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

This could be a strategy to phase in new battery/pack.

Plaid S/X with new battery
Long Range Plus for Model 3.

I would probably go the other way...

Plaid S/X with new battery
35k Model 3 with smaller pack on menu..

Most probably model 3/Y will stick with 2170 cells out of GF1.

Performance Model 3/Y might get the new battery - that would be a logical first step...

There is also a chance 18650 might continue to be used in non-Plaid Model S/X for a while..

But IMO all Model S/X with new battery is higher priority than performance Model 3/Y..

The new battery will go faster in a Plaid, it should give more range in the other variants...

It looks like Plaid with have more drag and heavier motors... speed not range is the target..

 

[Mo City]

? Euro to dollar went up, so the opening of 750(e) is roughly $825.

It was actually EUR747.60

 

[Artful Dodger]

$2k off of the M3 is a 4% drop in margins.

You can not say what the effect on margins would be because you do no know the drop in the manufacturing cost of Model 3. Historically, Tesla has dropped prices in response to lowered cost of production, often splitting the difference between price to consumers and Tesla's bottom line. That is how Tesla keeps growing margins while lowering prices. The bonus is increased demand for its products, which is actually a demand multipler since most sales occur through word of mouth via existing owners. Not to worry.

 

[NicoV]

Not saying this is a sign to buy, but.... [waves hand]

Though it'll be a shame to lose your titanium color.

Actually the drop of the titanium paint is one of the things that has prevented me in the past from upgrading to the latest version.
Now I wonder how long before a longer range Model S becomes available. The 100kWh battery is getting old.
And another thing that prevented me from buying a new one is the lack of integration of new Model 3 features in the Model S, in particular the keycard, and to a lesser extent, the airco.
I recently calculated that selling my S and buying a new one could be payed by a large part by lower company car taxes, lower insurance and lower electricity consumption. With the rumoured EU-wide drop of EV VAT, maybe it’s worth to wait a little bit longer.

 

[X Fan]

A Tim Higgins ( joint with Cara Lombardo) article of Amazon’s purchase of Zoox and no mention of Tesla (just Waymo and GM’s Cruise).

Smh at his article’s content: WSJ News Exclusive | Amazon in Advanced Talks to Buy Self-Driving-Car Tech Company Zoox

 

[mad474]

After 30 min at Berlins Tradegate Exchange:

Volume: 822
Avg. price EUR ~ 749.25
Avg. price USD ~ 821.00

Tradegate Exchange

 

[AZRI11]

A Tim Higgins ( joint with Cara Lombardo) article of Amazon’s purchase of Zoox and no mention of Tesla (just Waymo and GM’s Cruise). Smh at his article’s content: WSJ News Exclusive | Amazon in Advanced Talks to Buy Self-Driving-Car Tech Company Zoox

Zoox is desperate. Amazon is afraid of Tesla. What a perfect match I'm starting to question whether Bezos has lost it.

 

[FrankSG]

You can not say what the effect on margins would be because you do no know the drop in the manufacturing cost of Model 3. Historically, Tesla has dropped prices in response to lowered cost of production, often splitting the difference between price to consumers and Tesla's bottom line. That is how Tesla keeps growing margins while lowering prices. The bonus is increased demand for its products, which is actually a demand multipler since most sales occur through word of mouth via existing owners. Not to worry.

It is a 4% drop in margins compared to not reducing the price by $2k, but of course many other factors will influence QoQ margins of the M3 and overall business. It doesn't equate to a 4% drop in Tesla's overall margin.

I'm not so sure about price drops usually being in response to a drop in production costs. Q1'19 definitely was in response to the tax credit change, and Q3'19's cost reductions sparked price increases, not decreases.

Another theory I have is that it might be a worldwide price reduction, but it's mainly to stimulate demand in the US during Q2. Late May and June production usually goes entirely to NA, because cars can no longer be shipped and delivered overseas before EoQ. Undoubtedly orders during April and early May were much lower than normal, so it seems only natural that in Q2 there haven't been enough orders to allocate all production from late May onward to NA. Perhaps the price reduction is mainly to stimulate NA demand during the next couple of weeks, and price reductions overseas are only to stay in line with the motto of no discounts.

Of course cost reductions and/or some battery improvements could also be the reason, or a part of the reason.

But don't worry, a lot more would have to happen for me to be worried about Tesla

 

[StealthP3D]

I wonder if price reduction is effective in stimulating demand these days. How many people would decide to buy a car based on a few percentages of price decrease vs. people who are just sitting tight and won't buy anything no matter what the price (within reason).

Often it's which new car they will buy, not whether they will buy anything. When you are only 2% of the total new-vehicle market, it doesn't take many "defectors" to soak up any excess. And a $2,000 lower price is going to make the difference for a lot of buyers, the difference between stretching a little for the Tesla or just getting another plain jane, boring but "practical" gas car.

In my observation, Tesla tends to be quick on the draw to make these kinds of adjustments on the fly - they do it without hesitation before the situation becomes a problem. If it turns out they probably didn't need to do that, oh well, better safe than sorry. Gotta keep them cars moving out of the factory and into real people's hands ASAP while constantly driving production costs lower. Tesla's strategy is the longer, safer one.

In Elon's mind, lowering the price is like buying an insurance policy that everything will continue to work like clockwork while simultaneously accelerating the mission. Elon likes to lower the price if he thinks it will allow them to continue to increase production and lower costs further.

 

[LN1_Casey]

It was actually EUR747.60

Tradegate Exchange

It had it as a low 750 when I posted. Dunno which site would be more accurate.

Regardless, it's dropped to a low of 745.

 

[MC3OZ]

Once Karpthy gets FSD working, he will move on to the much harder problem of Tesla price adjustments.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, macros are positive. NASDAQ-100 Futures currently up +0.78%

Stock Indices Futures - Investing.com

 

[RobStark]

 

[CyberDutchie]

$2k off of the M3 is a 4% drop in margins. Then again, they used to sell it for $1k less than now a year ago, and the Y should bring increased economies of scale and cost reductions along with it, so maybe it won't have that big of an impact.

Catching up so maybe this was mentioned already. But $2K off of the M3, brings the price closer to the $35K that Elon promised many years ago. He still gets blasted for that, so this may actually be a positive thing.

 

[StealthP3D]

Catching up so maybe this was mentioned already. But $2K off of the M3, brings the price closer to the $35K that Elon promised many years ago. He still gets blasted for that, so this may actually be a positive thing.

Huh? Tesla already did that in Q1 2019. Anyone who was holding out for the $35,000 model could get one. For months. People blast Elon for just about anything. Even donating free masks and ventilators to hospitals that need them.

 

[FrankSG]

Another theory I have is that it might be a worldwide price reduction, but it's mainly to stimulate demand in the US during Q2. Late May and June production usually goes entirely to NA, because cars can no longer be shipped and delivered overseas before EoQ. Undoubtedly orders during April and early May were much lower than normal, so it seems only natural that in Q2 there haven't been enough orders to allocate all production from late May onward to NA. Perhaps the price reduction is mainly to stimulate NA demand during the next couple of weeks, and price reductions overseas are only to stay in line with the motto of no discounts.

Some people on Reddit are reporting prices have not changed in EU and New Zealand.

Sounds like it might be limited to US + China, which would lend credibility to this theory that it is mainly to be able to sell all production from now till EoQ in the US.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Huh? Tesla already did that in Q1 2019. Anyone who was holding out for the $35,000 model could get one. For months. People blast Elon for just about anything. Even donating free masks and ventilators to hospitals that need them.

Yes, the standard range, but that version doesn’t get advertised on the order page, you have to call Tesla. It gives the media an excuse to keep saying Model 3 starts at $40K. Now, the standard range plus shows up as $37,999 which psychologically looks pretty close to $35K (even though it’s still closer to $40K than $35K).

 

[stef]

Some people on Reddit are reporting prices have not changed in EU and New Zealand.

Sounds like it might be limited to US + China, which would lend credibility to this theory that it is mainly to be able to sell all production from now till EoQ in the US.

Can confirm no reductions in Switzerland at the moment.
Also zero model 3 inventory and the usual level of 15-25 cars for S and X.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes, the standard range, but that version doesn’t get advertised on the order page, you have to call Tesla. It gives the media an excuse to keep saying Model 3 starts at $40K. Now, the standard range plus shows up as $37,999 which psychologically looks pretty close to $35K (even though it’s still closer to $40K than $35K).

I'm on the same page here,,,

I will not even be surprised if Tesla stops making the SR+ and LR AWD for a while and makes only SR & Performance Model 3 combined with Model Y. The aim is to make best use of cells out of GF1.

Panasonic will expand capacity at GF1 to make more 2170s, there may be some limit on how many Model Ys can they can make at Fremont, but Tesla will want to maximise that number...

An on menu SR hasn't made sense so far, but it must be close to making sense.... and with the right battery pack it would make a reasonable Robo-taxi..

 

[LN1_Casey]

I'm on the same page here,,,

I will not even be surprised if Tesla stops making the SR+ and LR AWD for a while and makes only SR & Performance Model 3 combined with Model Y. The aim is to make best use of cells out of GF1.

Panasonic will expand capacity at GF1 to make more 2170s, there may be some limit on how many Model Ys can they can make at Fremont, but Tesla will want to maximise that number...

An on menu SR hasn't made sense so far, but it must be close to making sense.... and with the right battery pack it would make a reasonable Robo-taxi..

Why would they only make SR Model 3's? They're basically software locked SR+, and they have a lower margin because of it.