Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

I don't know if SpaceX helps TSLA but I know it helps sell Tesla vehicles because I'm one of them. Landing Falcons is what pushed me over the edge to order my S. I've lived on the SpaceCoast for 37 years and am awe struck when they land, nothing else like it. I've tried filming a landing on my Model S dashcam but haven't succeeded yet. I work at the Cape.

But if more people buy a Tesla because of SpaceX, doesn’t this have a direct effect on TSLA?

 

[dhanson865]

[OC] The richest person in each state as of 2019 : dataisbeautiful

So my question to you is how long will it take to get Elon on this map?

was I unreasonable in my post about it?

 

[FrankSG]

[OC] The richest person in each state as of 2019 : dataisbeautiful

So my question to you is how long will it take to get Elon on this map?

was I unreasonable in my post about it?

Elon said he's going to stay with friends, and only rent something for kids. Either way, I reckon he'll surpass Bezos by 2025 pretty easily. It just requires Tesla's valuation to be more than about half of Amazon's, and that excludes SpaceX.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Apologies if already posted:

特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

特拉风

T☰SLA mania

@Tesla__Mania

Breaking - Tesla China reduces Model S and Model X pricing by RMB 29,000 or about $4,000, meanwhile all MIC Model 3 prices stay the same. North America market will also reduce price for all current vehicles. Watch out for official announcement soon.

 

[kengchang]

Is this the new price for Model S? It was 79,990 before correct?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Apologies if already posted:

特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

That’d be great if true, because I’m getting one in five months.

However, I wonder if they’re going to reduce it preEOQ to help boost interest for the higher end vehicles, or after, to capture the higher margins before EOQ.

Edit: apparently true. Excellent! Hope it lasts until October!!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

View attachment 545148
Is this the new price for Model S? It was 79,990 before correct?

Yes, thats a $5,000 drop for the LR and performance models.

 

[kengchang]

5K off to S/X, 2K off to Model 3

Model S

Model 3

Model X

Model Y

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know. Nowadays kids have seen all kinds of space movies, without or without aliens. I wonder if going back into space in reality still commands the same sort of inspiration.

Human space exploration started out with a bang and abruptly came to a screeching halt. We have barely scratched the surface.

So yes, space is STILL the final frontier. We have the deep sea but I don't think that stimulates people's imaginations as much.

As to how SpaceX successes and failures reflect upon TSLA shares, I agree with those who say success is a smallish positive and failure would be a bigger negative. However, once the odds of success or failure are weighted into the share price gain/loss formula, I think a SpaceX event is pretty much an overall positive. In other words, the chance of mission failure has got to be less than 10%, while the share price loss from failure would be less than 10 times the small positive gain from a successful mission.

So, overall not the kind of risk you want to sell just to avoid it. Unless you are already over-leveraged or taking on too much risk for your own good.

 

[FrankSG]

Apologies if already posted:

特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

Hmmm... his interpretation is it applies to all S3XY cars, but that's just his interpretation.

This could be somewhat bad, and indicate low demand for S+X, if it is a price reduction only for S+X. The S+X could take a $4k price reduction and still have 17-19% gross margin. But nonetheless, a $4k price reduction seems excessive.

I don't know if it could be anything good like the introduction of new batteries. It seems unlikely, because I don't know how they'd have secretly built out enough volume of new battery tech to transition all production over to that. Maybe if it is only the S and X?

Or maybe, this could mean the Plaid Powertrain introduction is imminent? Maybe this is the most likely explanation. Shift the current LR version down to be the new low-end trim, make the performance the new mid-end trim, and introduce the new Plaid as the new high-end trim.

I can't fathom though, how it could possibly apply to the 3 and the Y, so I'm assuming TESLA MANIA is wrong about that interpretation.

EDIT: Looks like this is already outdated, because @kengchang confirmed it is also for the 3.

 

[kengchang]

EDIT: Looks like this is already outdated, because @kengchang confirmed it is also for the 3 and the Y.

No change to the Y, price gap is now 6K

 

[Mo City]

Elon said he's going to stay with friends, and only rent something for kids. Either way, I reckon he'll surpass Bezos by 2025 pretty easily. It just requires Tesla's valuation to be more than about half of Amazon's, and that excludes SpaceX.

"Easily" by 2025?

You do realize Amazon is expected to continue growing in a significant way. Like Tesla, COVID-19 has put them into a ridiculously favorable competitive position.

If Tesla and SpaceX pan out the way we expect, no doubt Elon will surpass Bezos down the line. But the target is moving fast.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Did they remove free supercharging for the S and X? I can't find it mentioned on the S/X page.

Edit: On the custom order page. It's still on the new inventory page.

 

[StealthP3D]

To my chagrin, it appears this was photoshopped by this guy..
Starman on Twitter

As opposed to an official paid photo-shoot? It looks like Tesla has a bevy of boutique advertising agencies that don't even bill Tesla or take any of their resources to hire and manage!

 

[MC3OZ]

Or maybe, this could mean the Plaid Powertrain introduction is imminent? Maybe this is the most likely explanation. Shift the current LR version down to be the new low-end trim, make the performance the new mid-end trim, and introduce the new Plaid as the new high-end trim.

That is my hunch....

I've also been expecting a slow walk down of Model 3 prices, when that is possible,,

Yes, demand in Q2 might be an issue, but provided margins are still OK, cutting prices isn't a disaster.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well we said we wanted more action in the stock and we're about to get it lol.....unfortunately to the downside.

I'm not surprised by the 3 price drop. There needed to be a bigger discrepancy between the 3 and the Y because everyone is going to chose the Y with such a small price difference between the two. They probably needed to generate more demand for the 3 and were just waiting on margin expansion in MIC chine and the Y. The S/X price drops could be anticipation of clearing out all inventory in anticipation of the refresh and/or introduction of new batteries/Plaid drivetrain. If not, well at least S/X do not have nearly the same impact on margins and revenue nowadays as they did a year ago.

Regardless, market's definitely going to treat this as bad news and I'd imagine we're gonna get hit pretty hard tomorrow. I would love to Tesla to actually put out press releases with these drops saying we've achieve further cost efficiencies and thus we are dropping the price of the cars while maintaining our margin target. If I remember correctly, they did that once or twice before, but most of the time they don't say anything.

 

[FrankSG]

"Easily" by 2025?

You do realize Amazon is expected to continue growing in a significant way. Like Tesla, COVID-19 has put them into a ridiculously favorable competitive position.

If Tesla and SpaceX pan out the way we expect, no doubt Elon will surpass Bezos down the line. But the target is moving fast.

I don't know that much about Amazon, but I reckon TSLA will likely be at least $800B to $1T by then, very possibly significantly higher.

Of course AMZN will grow too, but I'd imagine less fast. Maybe not "easily", but I'd say chances are pretty good Elon will surpass Bezos by then. Not that I care very much about Elon's and Bezos' relative wealth, but yeah...

 

[woodisgood]

Well we said we wanted more action in the stock and we're about to get it lol.....unfortunately to the downside.

I'm not surprised by the 3 price drop. There needed to be a bigger discrepancy between the 3 and the Y because everyone is going to chose the Y with such a small price difference between the two. The S/X price drops could be anticipation of clearing out all inventory in anticipation of the refresh and/or introduction of new batteries/Plaid drivetrain. If not, well at least S/X do not have nearly the same impact on margins and revenue nowadays as they did a year ago.

Regardless, market's definitely going to treat this as bad news and I'd imagine we're gonna get hit pretty hard tomorrow. I would love to Tesla to actually put out press releases with these drops saying we've achieve further cost efficiencies and thus we are dropping the price of the cars while maintaining our margin target. If I remember correctly, they did that once or twice before, but most of the time they don't say anything.

Ah but you're assuming MMs will let puts pay out. At least we will be testing the theory that flattening the options market has been someone's goal.

 

[FrankSG]

That is my hunch....

I've also been expecting a slow walk down of Model 3 prices, when that is possible,,

Yes, demand in Q2 might be an issue, but provided margins are still OK, cutting prices isn't a disaster.

$2k off of the M3 is a 4% drop in margins. Then again, they used to sell it for $1k less than now a year ago, and the Y should bring increased economies of scale and cost reductions along with it, so maybe it won't have that big of an impact.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ah but you're assuming MMs will let puts pay out.

Would be hilarious if MM's keep the stock from dropping big while shorts yell out "Manipulation!!!"