Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

People finally catching up to what Chamath said 13 months ago (watch at least the first minute):

Well in response to that final minute with Palihapitiya 13 months ago while TSLA was a little more than a quarter its current price, Wapner brought his friend Chanos on the show 2 months ago when TSLA was barely more than half its current price.

 

[SO16]

Well in response to that final minute with Palihapitiya 13 months ago, Wapner brought his friend Chanos on the show 2 months ago when TSLA was barely more than half its current price.

Awesome! Hopefully Chanos suckered some more shorts into hopping on. I used to get upset at the shorts, now I thank them.

 

[mikevbf]

I hope you guys now have some time for the long term stuff:
Raw material supply chains for battery production!

EV Stock Channel (IMO underrated youtube channel) released two battery videos in the last two weeks. Each featured a lithium supply chain analyst/expert.
Main takeaway: You need 5 to 7 years to get a new lithium mine running. Tesla needs a lot of lithium for one TWh Factory, way more than what is available today (factor 2 or 3). But Elon and the Tesla guys are very good a long term planing. Now I'm even more excited about battery day; over 900(0)!

Those interviews are lengthy, but if you want to understand why other OEM won't have the batteries to compete at scale with Tesla, this here is IMO the #1 reason. (This will kill them when they finally want (are forced) to go all EV).

Yes watched both these interviews. It used to be to see if a company was serious about the EV space you needed to look and see how much they invested in batteries. Soon I believe that is going to shift further down the supply chain to mining. I'm still trying to figure out how Tesla is going to pull off Tera factories based on mining lead times. I guess it's just going to take a while and probably helped by the Redwood recycling program.

 

[Tslynk67]

In case anyone is interested, MAX PAIN for friday is at 815.
Stock Option Max Pain

There are call-walls at $850 and $880 and a big one at $900, so I would bet a walk-down later in the week.

Volume improved today, but still not the levels we saw in early February.

 

[Reductionist]

Oh wow. This can't be good for margins...
Jaguar dealers are offering whopping $20,000 discounts on the I-Pace EV

"We may lose money on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume"
- Jaguar, probably



Still a Tesla killer tho

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Anyone have a link to whatever Ron Baron had to say today on CNBC?

 

[mickificki]

Anyone have a link to whatever Ron Baron had to say today on CNBC?

Apparently his interview is next Monday.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - half hour ago: SpaceX Falcon 9 Launch A 'Major Shot In The Arm' For Tesla Brand, Analyst Says

Primary Excerpt:

While SpaceX and Tesla are separate companies despite some R&D cross pollination in some key areas, from a consumer perspective the Musk DNA remains the linchpin to both of these next generation technology stalwarts and we would characterize the historic success of SpaceX as another major shot in the arm to the Tesla brand,” Ives wrote in a Monday note.

Rebuttal Exerpt:

Last week, Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital told Benzinga there should be no connection between SpaceX an Tesla’s share price.

"Seeing as there's no meaningful financial connection whatsoever between the business of Tesla and the business of SpaceX (other than what Musk might happen to steal from one to the other), there should be no reaction in $TSLA stock regardless of what happens with the launch," Spiegel told Benzinga.

 

[wipster]

Jeez, I swear the MSM can misconstrue anything... this "article" makes my blood boil. It even misquotes Fred!
Autopilot? Watch a Tesla slam into an overturned truck at a high speed

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Oh wow. This can't be good for margins...
Jaguar dealers are offering whopping $20,000 discounts on the I-Pace EV
Jaguar / dealerships about negative gross margins: "We'll make it up in volume"


Still a Tesla killer tho

I could be wrong but this seems off

"The Jaguar I-Pace won a ton of design awards and managed to rack up a modest 18,000 sales worldwide last year. But the company only sold a couple thousand in the US in 2019. Despite its promise to be a legit alternative to Tesla, that hasn’t materialized. It didn’t help that Jaguar faced a shortage of batteries."

2019 "is" last year Fred. Am I missing something???? The I-Pace did not sell 18,000 vehicles in any year. I don't even think the Ipace has sold 18,000 vehicles total yet.

Edit: Unless Fred is saying sales=reservations. So now a "sale" is a reservation according to Fred. Leave it to him to confuse sales, sold, etc...

Dear lord Fred get your sh*t together and do professional journalism.

Edit 2: I misread the text above so I'll give myself a

 

[Reductionist]

I could be wrong but this seems off

"The Jaguar I-Pace won a ton of design awards and managed to rack up a modest 18,000 sales worldwide last year. But the company only sold a couple thousand in the US in 2019. Despite its promise to be a legit alternative to Tesla, that hasn’t materialized. It didn’t help that Jaguar faced a shortage of batteries."

2019 "is" last year Fred. Am I missing something???? The I-Pace did not sell 18,000 vehicles in any year. I don't even think the Ipace has sold 18,000 vehicles total yet.

Edit: Unless Fred is saying sales=reservations. So now a "sale" is a reservation according to Fred. Leave it to him to confuse sales, sold, etc...

Dear lord Fred get your sh*t together and do professional journalism.

17400 sales globally last year, 10.7% of total Jaguar sales, according to this InsideEVs article. Also says ~24k total sales globally since introduction.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

17400 sales globally last year, 10.7% of total Jaguar sales, according to this InsideEVs article. Also says ~24k total sales globally since introduction.

Totally my fault at reading and missing the US part on the breakdown haha. I own up to it

Also, I'll give Jag more credit, they sold more Ipace's than I thought they would. They had to discount like crazy but they did

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla Model 3 made the list.

32 Fun Commuter Cars - 2020's Best Fuel Efficient Cars

32 Truly Fun-to-Drive Cars That Get 30 MPG or Better

"The Model 3 Performance is the only purely electric car on this list, and it certainly deserves the spot. We took a couple to Lime Rock Park a few months back, and had a ton of fun."

 

[skybluecgreen]

Someone who knows more about technical analysis correct me if I'm wrong, but the TSLA chart as of today seems to fit the bill for this 'high-tight-flag' pattern: Smart Chart Reading: High Tight Flag Can Deliver Skyscraper-Sized Gains

That's a great call! Investors.com has TSLA as the stock of the day and called the move a breakout of a cup & handle but I would call that a high tight flag that we broke out of at 870. Either way- it's a good set up. These technical signals have to be viewed cautiously but it looks like there is good potential for a run from here!

Tesla Stock Break Outs Into Buy Range | Investor's Business Daily

 

[Mo City]

Anyone have a link to whatever Ron Baron had to say today on CNBC?

When I woke up this morning about an hour after opening and saw where TSLA was, my first thought was what did Ron Baron say.

We can only wonder what happens next Monday morning when he does chime in.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Yes watched both these interviews. It used to be to see if a company was serious about the EV space you needed to look and see how much they invested in batteries. Soon I believe that is going to shift further down the supply chain to mining. I'm still trying to figure out how Tesla is going to pull off Tera factories based on mining lead times. I guess it's just going to take a while and probably helped by the Redwood recycling program.

Definitely no expert here, but I am a victim of some very unprofitable investments in lithium tracker funds and mining companies in the last few years. As I understand it, from stuff people have said here, there was actually quite a large over-investment in mining for lithium and other battery resources. I think the suppy chain problem is at the batery level, not the mining level.

Check the 5 year chart for this tracker:
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech (LIT) Stock Price, Quote, History & News - Yahoo Finance

Also a relevant chart here:
Global lithium production 2019 | Statista

 

[adiggs]

Won't there be more PAIN if the stock keeps going up? I can't figure out why it's not called MIN PAIN? Serious question.

Max Pain comes from the idea of maximum pain for option Sellers. So as the share price moves away from maximum pain for option sellers (either direction), the amount of money (shares delivered or received) increases from that baseline.

Stock Option Max Pain

That's the site I use for TSLA. The hope pages has blogs and other links to information about max pain theory and details..

 

[NicoV]

When I woke up this morning about an hour after opening and saw where TSLA was, my first thought was what did Ron Baron say.

We can only wonder what happens next Monday morning when he does chime in.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla being the most valuable car company in the world would be a major topic on the news before Monday.

 

[adiggs]

Oh wow. This can't be good for margins...
Jaguar dealers are offering whopping $20,000 discounts on the I-Pace EV

"We may lose money on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume"
- Jaguar, probably



Still a Tesla killer tho

Reminds me of this SNL skit:
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/first-citiwide-bank-change-ii/n9703

"How do you do it HOW DO YOU DO IT?"

"Volume"

 

[StealthP3D]

A big move towards TM by TSLA.

A very strong day for the sector led by TSLA except the German 3 were body-slammed.

According to your chart, Mitsubishi was down 6.3%.