Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Nice try, as a share holder this is a serious question. The technology of Autonomous driving is amazing, and the geek in me is impressed. As I have stated before, its a great safety accessory ( still debating if its worth $7K). With that stated, even Elon must be concerned about limiting the liability of even a few "accidents" against the company.

As to your assertion of me "not being happy". As an African American,yes, I am pissed, but it has nothing to with Tesla, or the reason I posted this topic.

If Tesla has working FSD with regulatory approval to operate Robotaxi network ... and there is an accident....

it is important to parse these 2 statement halves individually.

Regulatory approval for FSD is huge in terms of revenue for FSD sales and the Tesla network...

The share price will be higher and Tesla will insure Robotaxis against accidents...

Regulatory approval will not be hard to get and without regulatory approval Tesla can be conservative about removing the legal need for driver monitoring... Yes there is a grey are when Tesla says FSD is working and applies for approval, drivers are then likely to be free operate their car without supervision...

But the time regulators approve Robotaxis, travelling in a Robotaxi will probably be safer than being in a car with a human driver.

Accidents are always unfortunate and no system is perfect, but I don't agree this is an issue investors need to worry about...

If you are looking to take some profits, when regulators approve Tesla Robotaxis is a time to think about it...

There must be some workplaces where the risk in turning up to work each day is much higher than the risk of travelling in a Robotaxi. yes any legal settlement would be expensive, but there will not be many...

Once the public are convinced Robotaxis are safe the occasional accident will not stop them using the service, aeroplanes occasionally crash, but most people are happy to fly. I imagine when a plane crashes there is also the potential for a large legal settlement, especially if the accident investigation indicates any error or oversight on the part of the operating airline, the pilot or the manufacturer. And planes don't usually crash when everyone does their job perfectly..

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Jeez, I swear the MSM can misconstrue anything... this "article" makes my blood boil. It even misquotes Fred!
Autopilot? Watch a Tesla slam into an overturned truck at a high speed

That's not MSM, that's MarketWatch. In the same category as Business Insider you can pay for any headline you want on MarketWatch, no one should think of it as journalism. And certainly no one should link to it!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Max Pain comes from the idea of maximum pain for option Sellers. So as the share price moves away from maximum pain for option sellers (either direction), the amount of money (shares delivered or received) increases from that baseline.

Stock Option Max Pain

That's the site I use for TSLA. The hope pages has blogs and other links to information about max pain theory and details..

I'm still not sure I get it. If MAX PAIN is the best outcome for the option sellers why isn't it called NO PAIN? How can it be MAX if the losses grow for them further away?

Or do they have some fetish where making money causes them pain?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I'm still not sure I get it. If MAX PAIN is the best outcome for the option sellers why isn't it called NO PAIN? How can it be MAX if the losses grow for them further away?

Or do they have some fetish where making money causes them pain?

It’s maximum pain for those who bought the options (i.e. it’s the price at which the sellers have to pay out the least amount of total money on both sides of the trade-> puts/calls)

 

[dc_h]

I'm still not sure I get it. If MAX PAIN is the best outcome for the option sellers why isn't it called NO PAIN? How can it be MAX if the losses grow for them further away?

Or do they have some fetish where making money causes them pain?

It’s max pain for option owners. The market makers who sell the options have an incentive to maximize pain to buyers. Since they own underlying shares, they have considerable ability to manipulate the market. Once in a while, if the top blows off, they lose that control.

As a seller of covered calls expiring on Friday at 1000, I’m a bit anxious the top is going to blow off this week. With Giga Berlin starting and Shanghai progress, and the image enhancing of the astronauts on all things Elon, this could be a crazy week.

 

[wipster]

That's not MSM, that's MarketWatch. In the same category as Business Insider you can pay for any headline you want on MarketWatch, no one should think of it as journalism. And certainly no one should link to it!

Exsqueeze me, baking powder, MSM or not it's still out there for the uninformed to read and it still pisses me off. And if you don't like me linking to it, don't read it.

 

[adiggs]

I'm still not sure I get it. If MAX PAIN is the best outcome for the option sellers why isn't it called NO PAIN? How can it be MAX if the losses grow for them further away?

Or do they have some fetish where making money causes them pain?

I guess it's really an aggregate statement about the money made by option buyers - max pain for buyers = min pain for option sellers (so you're right - it's max pain for buyers, and the desired outcome for sellers).

I've found that link helpful for expanding my view / understanding of the idea. One of the charts there is the amount of money paid out by option sellers at different strike prices.


One thing I've discovered isn't talked about with max pain, is that it's an aggregate measure. The overall intent / desired outcome by the significant option sellers / buyers, isn't necessarily the same outcome. I don't know of any way to get the individual positions and thus insight into the different motivations by market participants (so the insight is true, and useless).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Some advice for:
- those that are new to investing in TSLA
- the faint of heart
- clueless people/TSLAQ

"Don't sell."

You're welcome.

I don't know. We could be seeing a false recovery here with a mega-macro downturn that lasts quite a while. Selling at $900-1100 with the plan to buy back in at $500-700 might not be a terrible plan. Perhaps "Sell TSLA last" makes more sense? NOT ADVICE.

 

[FreqFlyer]

If Tesla has working FSD with regulatory approval to operate Robotaxi network ... and there is an accident....

it is important to parse these 2 statement halves individually.

Regulatory approval for FSD is huge in terms of revenue for FSD sales and the Tesla network...

The share price will be higher and Tesla will insure Robotaxis against accidents...

Regulatory approval will not be hard to get and without regulatory approval Tesla can be conservative about removing the legal need for driver monitoring... Yes there is a grey are when Tesla says FSD is working and applies for approval, drivers are then likely to be free operate their car without supervision...

But the time regulators approve Robotaxis, travelling in a Robotaxi will probably be safer than being in a car with a human driver.

Accidents are always unfortunate and no system is perfect, but I don't agree this is an issue investors need to worry about...

If you are looking to take some profits, when regulators approve Tesla Robotaxis is a time to think about it...

There must be some workplaces where the risk in turning up to work each day is much higher than the risk of travelling in a Robotaxi. yes any legal settlement would be expensive, but there will not be many...

Once the public are convinced Robotaxis are safe the occasional accident will not stop them using the service, aeroplanes occasionally crash, but most people are happy to fly. I imagine when a plane crashes there is also the potential for a large legal settlement, especially if the accident investigation indicates any error or oversight on the part of the operating airline, the pilot or the manufacturer. And planes don't usually crash when everyone does their job perfectly..

Thank you for your well thought out post.

 

[phantasms]

I don't know. We could be seeing a false recovery here with a mega-macro downturn that lasts quite a while. Selling at $900-1100 with the plan to buy back in at $500-700 might not be a terrible plan. Perhaps "Sell TSLA last" makes more sense? NOT ADVICE.

I did that on the COVID dip. It worked out very well for me but at the same time was very stressful. I’ve made enough cash on other stuff in the past few months that I’ll probably hold my core and just add on a bunch every step of the way down. Yes, I’m expecting new much lower lows for the market as a whole, not TSLA, but I’m just lucky idiot so don’t bet on it. lol

 

[BornToFly]

As a seller of covered calls expiring on Friday at 1000, I’m a bit anxious the top is going to blow off this week. With Giga Berlin starting and Shanghai progress, and the image enhancing of the astronauts on all things Elon, this could be a crazy week.

I'm in the same boat. I have covered calls at 1000 for 1/3 of my shares expiring this Friday. I can't decide if we go over if I let them get called away, or if I buy more shares at 1000 with a buy stop loss order to cover the calls. 1000 is one of those numbers that might trigger a lot of selling and profit taking, so we might not stay above it.

 

[vikings123]

I don't know. We could be seeing a false recovery here with a mega-macro downturn that lasts quite a while. Selling at $900-1100 with the plan to buy back in at $500-700 might not be a terrible plan. Perhaps "Sell TSLA last" makes more sense? NOT ADVICE.

I don't know if we will see a major pullback. I have been holding on to some dry powder for a few weeks now anticipating macro weakness but this market is on steroids, amazing how much liquidity Fed pumped into this. It's crazy how many stocks have doubled or tripled over the past couple of months especially in the tech/cloud sector. Look at ZS, earnings announced on Thursday and the stock is up 30% in two days, just crazy. Or SHOP or CRWD or LVGO, the list goes on.

I think TSLA is breaking out of a consolidation phase and I'd rather sell it(IRA, no tax implications etc) on the way down instead of going with a predetermined price. Play safe, who knows when they decide to pull the rug. I just don't think it will be a significant drop.

 

[Krugerrand]

Alameda County now has a curfew order from 8pm to 5am. Not sure how this might affect shift workers at Tesla.

 

[Thumper]

Between the civil unrest and the reckless behavior like pool parties, I will be very surprised if we don't get a major wave of infections again. Not sure how it will affect the economy and TSLA

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It’s max pain for option owners. The market makers who sell the options have an incentive to maximize pain to buyers. Since they own underlying shares, they have considerable ability to manipulate the market. Once in a while, if the top blows off, they lose that control.

This is how I figured it was all along. BUT IT STILL DOES NOT MAKE SENSE.

If you have a call at 1000 you would feel more pain if it goes down to 700 or whatever (as long as below 815 this week). If you have a put at 500 you would be worse of if it goes to 900 than 815. Unless I'm missing something there's not a single option seller or buyer that has max pain at max pain. Why would anyone look at them as a group? It makes much more sense to look at this from the other side.

I'm gonna come up with a new name and convince the world to change it.

 

[kengchang]

Alameda County now has a curfew order from 8pm to 5am. Not sure how this might affect shift workers at Tesla.

No effect

There are exemptions from the curfew for “peace officers, firefighters, emergency operations personnel, other government employees engaged in authorized emergency operations, members of the National Guard, or any other responding military personnel deployed to the county,” as well as “individuals who can establish to the satisfaction of a peace officer that they are in such place for the sole purpose of traveling to their home or workplace or to obtain medical assistance,” the order said.

 

[elasalle]

This is how I figured it was all along. BUT IT STILL DOES NOT MAKE SENSE.

If you have a call at 1000 you would feel more pain if it goes down to 700 or whatever (as long as below 815 this week). If you have a put at 500 you would be worse of if it goes to 900 than 815. Unless I'm missing something there's not a single option seller or buyer that has max pain at max pain. Why would anyone look at them as a group? It makes much more sense to look at this from the other side.

I'm gonna come up with a new name and convince the world to change it.

You are looking at Options as a whole.
Max Pain is the the point where Option Sellers secure the most profits - Or @ which holders of Options would have the max worthless expirations

 

[Mike Smith]

Ford is currently worth $23 billion
Nikola Motors is worth $15 billion

So the market is saying Ford is worth little more than a half-baked idea and some unsecured pre-orders. I agree.

 

[Krugerrand]

No effect

There are exemptions from the curfew for “peace officers, firefighters, emergency operations personnel, other government employees engaged in authorized emergency operations, members of the National Guard, or any other responding military personnel deployed to the county,” as well as “individuals who can establish to the satisfaction of a peace officer that they are in such place for the sole purpose of traveling to their home or workplace or to obtain medical assistance,” the order said.

Ok, so how exactly does an individual satisfy a peace officer they are traveling for work? Seriously. A statement of, ‘I’m driving to work/from work at Tesla and yes, I’m coming directly from home/going directly home...’ is an honor system kind of thing. No?

 

[ZeApelido]

SpaceXQ will be waiting !

Seeking Alpha 2030:

Monthly Boring Drills sales are down 30% in the Marsdinavia provence.