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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Previously Elon said the Semi was on hold because they didn't have enough batteries given the demand from cars and storage. So if Semi production is ramping up, either some unannounced battery technology is now ready for volume production, or they have a lot of extra 2170 cells beyond what they need for cars and energy storage.

Well they did have a bunch of downtime at Fremont recently while GigaNevada was still running, so maybe they built enough of a stockpile of cells to be able to start making Semis.
 
This is pretty obviously wrong- given every car maker trying to do EVs is heavily battery constrained.

Even Tesla who has put a ton more effort into this than anybody else.

If battery production and inputs could "scale immediate" because "that's how markets work" you wouldn't have Hyundai saying they've got MASSIVELY more demand for their EVs than they have batteries would you?

You wouldn't have Ford saying the Mach E is limited to 50k production because there's just no more batteries to be had.


You wouldn't have a number of EV makers having announced cuts to even the previous small #s due to battery constraints.

You wouldn't have Tesla choking their own energy storage business because they already don't have enough cells just to meet vehicle demand.


Mining companies aren't exactly silicon valley tech companies used to turning on a dime and massively scaling production (and everything that goes into it like labor, storage, equipment, etc).






"in cities"

The discussion was either worldwide- or countrywide.

Ain't happening anywhere near that fast- and didn't with cars either.


Also 10 years doesn't seem correct even then- because Barras comment was "all cars" not "a simple majority"

There were a handfull of cars in NYC for example at the turn of the century.

The last horse-drawn trolley didn't retire in NYC till 1917.

The last horse drawn fire engine not till 1922.

In 1928 there were still 90 carriage makers in business in the northeastern US.

Even into the 1930s there remained thousands of horses in NYC though obviously cars vastly outnumbered them.

(and again- most of the country isn't NYC)
ALL of those are good numbers...but not backed by the same reason... cars were undependable and building them was rocket science compared to how horses were produced.
BEVs are less complicated than ICE cars ..and more dependable already(?). And better for the environment..and more fun...and easier on the mind.
(Though I do wish we were a horse world)
 
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Below: TSLA stock price now.
Above: TSLA stock price in ten years time :rolleyes: