Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

Someone on CNBC (I think Phil Lebeau) was saying he's hearing chatter about Tesla possibly buying SpaceX. Adding SpaceX for around 25% dilution? YES PLEASE.

 

[Fred42]

Cadillac Exterior Design Director Brian Smith Promises Stunning New Electric Cars

The article says Cadillac plans to have a flagship EV sedan by 2025. It repeats the message that they'll have the electric SUV in 2022. In response to a question, Cadillac's design director says they "are staying on track with engineering and marketing and leadership to keep the decisions rolling" and mentions challenges. One is not everyone working at home has the right software. That sounds like a challenge to me.

 

[EinSV]

Someone on CNBC (I think Phil Lebeau) was saying he's hearing chatter about Tesla possibly buying SpaceX. Adding SpaceX for around 25% dilution? YES PLEASE.

0.000% chance of that happening IMO.

 

[StealthP3D]

So I put my Model Y order in May 30, car paid off and I'm ready to get it.

But still no VIN assigned to my account.

Yesterday, upon news that Y was getting referral SC miles, I called Tesla and asked about adding on SC miles onto my Y order now that they were available, but the sales rep wouldn't budge. First she said (after putting me on hold to speak with her supervisor), "well yes, we can use your friend's referral code, but only they will get the miles, not you." After explaining that I wanted to use my own referral code, she again put me on hold for a few minutes to talk to her supervisor, but again came back saying that retroactively adding referral code after ordering wasn't allowed according to "policy."

So $80K of my money has gone to Tesla over the past year, plus trading in my 2019 M3, and they won't give me $10 worth for them of SC credits. Whatever, my TSLA stock has paid for both vehicles so I guess I don't really care. But still...sheesh.

Earlier you posted a question about using your referral code to purchase it retroactively. I would have responded but for two things:

1) It's the wrong thread.
2) It's silly to think you could use an incentive like that retroactively. It's an incentive to encourage word of mouth sales. Once the order is placed without a referral you can't add one after the fact, that would defeat the purpose of referrals. There was a time when Tesla was more lenient on this but that time is long gone.

This is still the wrong thread so lets not discuss it further here.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Where did you get this updated timeline from? No specifics were listed in the email.

I'm definitely guessing based on the fact that the Semi was delayed till 2021 and now Elon in that email is stating they are ready to start getting the semi to volume production now. If they were planning on getting to volume production any later than Q2 2021, what's the point of sending that email? So therefore I'd have to think Semi will be in volume production by Q1 2021 at the latest and possibly as soon as Q4 2020.

There's obviously a lot of pieces to the puzzle that we don't know about yet. There were the rumors that Elon wanted the next factory to be up and running(albeit probably in tent mode or only a partially complete building) by end of 2020.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Almost exactly 10-years ago today: $TSLA IPO'd at $17 (2010-06-29)..
10 years later... $TSLA stock is still at $17, just ignore the $1000 up front

That's a 50.7% CAGR (Not too shabby over 10 years)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Btw anyone else feel like given this Semi news came out of nowhere, that the Semi will be part of the battery day demonstration? In the email, Elon states they've improved many aspects of the design and Elon has always said the specs will probably be better than the initial specs(thought we don't know by how much). I could see them debuting the production version of the Semi at the battery day event(in addition to the Plaid S)

 

[Sudre]

I'm definitely guessing based on the fact that the Semi was delayed till 2021 and now Elon in that email is stating they are ready to start getting the semi to volume production now. If they were planning on getting to volume production any later than Q2 2021, what's the point of sending that email? So therefore I'd have to think Semi will be in volume production by Q1 2021 at the latest and possibly as soon as Q4 2020.

There's obviously a lot of pieces to the puzzle that we don't know about yet. There were the rumors that Elon wanted the next factory to be up and running(albeit probably in tent mode or only a partially complete building) by end of 2020.

I kinda agree with this. I think Tesla is ready as far as they have everything they need to be able to mass produce the Semi. Which is to say they still have to put those pieces on the board / in a factory. I don't think it means tomorrow they flip a switch and they start coming off the line. I believe this is a hint that the new cells are ready and past all testing. The trial machines have probably even been tested and work. The Rigs that have been driving around work as intended.

The question is how did Mr Market take that leaked email. Do they think that email means the factory is all ready to go? Elon is just keeping it's location a secret.

 

[AlMc]

Someone on CNBC (I think Phil Lebeau) was saying he's hearing chatter about Tesla possibly buying SpaceX. Adding SpaceX for around 25% dilution? YES PLEASE.

0.000% chance of that happening IMO.

More of a chance that Space X and 'wealthy friends of EM' buy Tesla at a premium and merge it with SpaceX, take private as 'Musk Enterprises'.......

 

[tinm]

pretty sure apologies were made immediately.

I still haven’t gotten one

 

[Cherry Wine]

Btw anyone else feel like given this Semi news came out of nowhere, that the Semi will be part of the battery day demonstration? In the email, Elon states they've improved many aspects of the design and Elon has always said the specs will probably be better than the initial specs(thought we don't know by how much). I could see them debuting the production version of the Semi at the battery day event(in addition to the Plaid S)

Pretty sure that Semi/Plaid were always intended to be part of battery day.

Remember: "show and tell"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone notice that we've now solidly passed the next market capitalization tranche for Musk's compensation plan? What's the ETA to knocking out another operational milestone?

None of Elon's tranches vest on a single-day Closing SP. The two metrics, 1-mth and 6-mth Avg Closing Price right now stand at $848.86 and $651.04 repectively.

Remember, 6 months ago on Dec 11, 2019 TSLA closed at $352.70 so that data point drops out of the 6-mth avg tomorrow, to be replaced by tomorrow's Closing SP.

We've come a long way, and there's 11 more tranches to go in Elon's CEO comp. plan. Feel priviledged to be along for the ride; happy to help where I can.

Cheers!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Anyone want to speculate what this 'limited production' Elon says the semi has been in actually meant?

Has there been any sighting of any other semi than the first two presented years ago now? Unless they've made at least some more I wouldn't call that even a limited production. Is there hope that they might have another 5-10 semis hidden away? But then what would be the point if they haven't driven them on public roads at all?

Dream scenario is that Friday as the push to get the stockprice down starts a convoy of 10 semis drives into LA and parades around for a few hours. Just let me short some NKLA first.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - hour ago: Ford delays F-150 electric pickup truck to 'mid-2022' - Electrek

 

[LJS22]

Anyone want to speculate what this 'limited production' Elon says the semi has been in actually meant?

Has there been any sighting of any other semi than the first two presented years ago now? Unless they've made at least some more I wouldn't call that even a limited production. Is there hope that they might have another 5-10 semis hidden away? But then what would be the point if they haven't driven them on public roads at all?

Dream scenario is that Friday as the push to get the stockprice down starts a convoy of 10 semis drives into LA and parades around for a few hours. Just let me short some NKLA first.

One was pictured coming back from winter testing. Looked like it had been beat to hell

 

[EVortex]

I kinda agree with this. I think Tesla is ready as far as they have everything they need to be able to mass produce the Semi. Which is to say they still have to put those pieces on the board / in a factory. I don't think it means tomorrow they flip a switch and they start coming off the line. I believe this is a hint that the new cells are ready and past all testing. The trial machines have probably even been tested and work. The Rigs that have been driving around work as intended.

The question is how did Mr Market take that leaked email. Do they think that email means the factory is all ready to go? Elon is just keeping it's location a secret.

Also just watched NKLA take off like crazy with hydrogen fuel cell and electric semi and pickup ideas - nothing close to working and road tested prototypes - why not jump in now with the Tesla semi? Will this be a NKLA killer?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

One was pictured coming back from winter testing. Looked like it had been beat to hell

Pretty sure the consensus was that was one of the two original ones.

 

[EVortex]

Pretty sure the consensus was that was one of the two original ones.

I saw them several times hauling on I-80 between Freemont and Reno. Saw one at the Rocklin SC getting charged. These trucks have been used in real world hauling for Tesla.

 

[Zaxxon]

0.000% chance of that happening IMO.

Exactly. There is no chance that SpaceX becomes a public company in any form before Mars.

None of Elon's tranches vest on a single-day Closing SP.

I'm aware of how it works. Just saying we're well above the price point for the 2nd tranche, so when the next operational milestone is hit, there's a good chance the average is ready or just about ready.

Electrek - hour ago: Ford delays F-150 electric pickup truck to 'mid-2022' - Electrek

Which basically means the car is ceding a ton of sales to Tesla. The F-150 brand is strong, but 6 months of deliveries is a long time for Cybertruck to gain traction. And given Musk's stated goal to move the truck up, I don't see start of production slipping past late 2021.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pfft! I’ve been in since less another zero. You late to the game.

Nawh this is not the end. This is not even the beginning of the end. It is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Cheers!