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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I strongly disagree with your post when comparing the cost of ICE maintenance and repairs with Tesla maintenance and repairs. In my experience, my two ICE vehicles were costing me a fortune in repairs. Replacing the catalytic converter on my Lexus cost over $2000. The list is very long of all the parts I've replaced on my Lexus and my BMW. Some of the parts I've replaced: thermostat, water pump, expansion tank, radiator (you BMW owners know all about these at ~60K miles - right?) fuel pump, ignition coil(s), battery, valve cover gasket, catalytic converter, oil/filter and spark plug changes.
Does your wife's 20 year old car leak oil on to the garage/driveway? Both of my ICE cars leaked oil, constantly. When visiting family/friends, I had to park my car on the street, so as not to leave oil stains on their driveway. My garage will need to be professionally cleaned to remove the oil stains. Have you ever priced the cost to replace all the gaskets on an ICE vehicle to fix the oil leaks?
I will never buy another ICE vehicle for myself or my family again. You could not pay me to drive an ICE vehicle again. I have two Teslas (Cybertruck on order) and they are absolutely fantastic. Scheduling service with the Tesla app and Tesla service was great when I got my HW3 upgrades. I haven't been to a gas station in nearly 2 years. Charging my Teslas is a breeze. Love my Teslas!
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Thumper
Active Member
This.....Got 'his digits'
I only just met him, and I want to give him one digit.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
UK is set for huge changes in the auto world:
Scrapage payment of £6k likely to be imminent for those moving to BEVs
UK Gigafactory possibly inbound
Brexit effect coming at the turn of the year - EU cars may get more costly
COVID means cars are not selling
Scrapage payment of £6k likely to be imminent for those moving to BEVs
UK Gigafactory possibly inbound
Brexit effect coming at the turn of the year - EU cars may get more costly
COVID means cars are not selling
jhm
Well-Known Member
I liked the discussion of price parity. Here's what I would add.
For moderate priced cars, a $5000 reduction in purchase price roughly doubles the demand for the vehicle. So back when a full range battery might cost, say, $20k, a 25% reduction in the EV drive train could unlock twice the demand. When the EV drivetrain was about $10k, a 50% reduction could unlock a doubling of demand. Meanwhile the ICE drivetrain is around $5k plus or minus a few thousand. As EV drivetrains get down close to the same range of $5k, then further reductions in the cost of the drivetrain make very little difference in the addressable market. Rather the cost of everything else and the performance and features of the vehicle drive marketability. So I see parity as the cost pont for the EV drivetrain below which that cost is no longer a barrier to demand creation. At parity, the full automotive market is addressable by EVs.
Tesla is quite close to that point, but it is beneficial to make vehicles that command premium pricing, as a generous gross margin is key the cash flow needed to expand rapidly.
For moderate priced cars, a $5000 reduction in purchase price roughly doubles the demand for the vehicle. So back when a full range battery might cost, say, $20k, a 25% reduction in the EV drive train could unlock twice the demand. When the EV drivetrain was about $10k, a 50% reduction could unlock a doubling of demand. Meanwhile the ICE drivetrain is around $5k plus or minus a few thousand. As EV drivetrains get down close to the same range of $5k, then further reductions in the cost of the drivetrain make very little difference in the addressable market. Rather the cost of everything else and the performance and features of the vehicle drive marketability. So I see parity as the cost pont for the EV drivetrain below which that cost is no longer a barrier to demand creation. At parity, the full automotive market is addressable by EVs.
Tesla is quite close to that point, but it is beneficial to make vehicles that command premium pricing, as a generous gross margin is key the cash flow needed to expand rapidly.
jhm
Well-Known Member
In a few hours, my family will trade in our first Tesla, Blueberry, a Model S 85 from 2015, and take delivery of our new Model Y LR.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
How did you get a LR ? I thought they were only shipping AWD ?
Hmmmm, just wait until end July, boom, #CTandHouseSecured
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
The accountant is projecting GAAP loss of 80 cents/share - meaning no S&P just yet.
More positively, Q4 profit would equate to forward p/e of 50.
Near-future quarterly financial projections
More positively, Q4 profit would equate to forward p/e of 50.
Near-future quarterly financial projections
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Trade in? Certainly the TMC community would see great incremental value in owning jhm's first Tesla. I fear you left $20-100k on the table. Enjoy the Y!
Those estimates at 85k deliveries are close enough for Tesla to pull some surprises to get to profitable. One major thing being how much revenue it choses to recognize from FSD.
Also, the estimate of 8k of Model Y I think is low. I'm thinking Model Y deliveries will be in the 10-12k range with a possibility up to 13-14k.
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Their strategy was and will still be planned obsolescence, which is why they can afford losing money on new car sales, and make bulk of their profits from parts and services.
Sometimes they push too hard and customers would push back.
Most of the time they get away with it, by convincing customers leasing a new car every three years is acceptable.
Once people see how long a Model 3 will stay fresh as new, they will wake up, we are not far from that.
Youtube users The Wolfpack Berlin has a new video from Giga Berlin:
JusRelax
Active Member
This estimate is actually from @Todesbuckler . @The Accountant did say that his estimate is pretty close and that he will post his later.
Also I genuinely believe that Tesla lowered the 3, S, and X prices not because there was not enough demand based on a "limited production ramp from Fremont being closed" but because they quickly got Fremont back up to full production. So while I wouldn't bet on it, I don't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility that we see production in the area of 95-100k with 92-95k deliveries. Maybe even in the 97-98k range if Model Y ramped well.
I wouldn't be making any short term bets on this hunch thought haha.
An uninformed Care Bear appears on forum probably means there are new shorts in the game(understandably someone think it’s a good idea when we are at a new ATH).
Over the past 12 months I learned to appreciate what they do, so I want to say thank you to them(And to the money they are going to lose in the years to come).
Over the past 12 months I learned to appreciate what they do, so I want to say thank you to them(And to the money they are going to lose in the years to come).
It's interesting seeing the difference in construction speed between Gigas Shanghai and Berlin. Berlin looks like it is being build so much slower than Shanghai. The Chinese just threw so many resources at production. It's like Berlin is being build in series and Shanghai in parallel.
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