Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dreadnought]

Weekend OT

Happy Birthday to everybody born 69 days after 4/20! Special greetings to a certain visionary entrepreneur who builds rockets and digs tunnels as a hobby and builds amazing electric cars for a living (you know who you are).

 

[Christine69420]

The YouTube interview in this article is interesting:-
Tesla, Terafactories, & Lithium: Securing The Supply Chain | CleanTechnica

Thank you! It really opened my eyes on Litium and Tera Factory building!

 

[Ipe]

It is not either/or.

Tesla isn't scrapping the piggy bank for pennies.

Elon said he told his managers to spend money as needed as long as they don't waste it.

Charging speeding is now 225 Kw on the current S. An extra 25 Kw isn't a game changer.

I would much rather have state of the art headlamps/taillights with redesign than heat pump.

A CCS chargeport instead of a friggin’ adapter on a 100k luxury car.

 

[Tslynk67]

Am I reading correctly? There were 17,5 cars in inventory? Then they added 0,5 so finally they could sell them
View attachment 557571

He he, no it's just my total inability with Apple Numbers - like the fact there's no legend, can't work out how to do it. Weird as most Mac-based software is super-easy to use, the the iWork suite I've always found a bit opaque...

Here's the table - which I've updates as-and-when I've remembered to go look...

 

[mongo]

I'm confused at your comment. The point I saw being made was that passing the Federal Safety Standards was the last major hurdle before they could bid on Postal Service supply contracts. And that their vehicles had passed the testing. It doesn't appear relevant who does the testing, the relevant part is that it's been done and it was successful.

Tl;dr; PR is PRish.

True, the Postal Service is looking for commercially available vehicles, so production and certification are gating functions.

My comment was related to idea that it was a "major hurdle". To me, that implies some difficult task that weeds out lesser manufacturers from greater. In reality, it's like a rubric in a high school class, if you do these 5 things on a take home, open book, no time limit test, you get 100%. The crash/ impact test are the ones that might require a late stage redesign if starting a design from scratch.

There are other FMVSS qualified pure electric delivery vehicles put there, which is why the press release said

making Workhorse the only American all-electric OEM designing and manufacturing last mile delivery vehicles to complete this testing,

The testing isn't the unique item there, it's limiting the scope to: American manufacturers that only make electric vehicles. So the Freightliner based Daimler eM2 (pilot vehicles on road since 2018, production next year) would not count (per WH press release) since they both also make non-electric vehicles.

I also don't get how Workhorse can call themselves all electric, given their previous range extended W-15 pickup A $52,000 plug-in electric pickup truck w/ range extender receives over 5,000 fleet orders, opens reservation to the public - Electrek and fuel cell delivery van FedEx Takes Delivery Of Workhorse Range-Extended Electric Van
Either those concepts were canned or electric only refers to the final motive power.

Back to testing, the C650 and C1000 both are 12,500 lb gross vehicle weight rating, which puts them in the over 10k lb group (like most delivery trucks). This exempts them from a bunch of tests and requirements (no airbags required).

Expected range is 100 miles on the base battery pack Workhorse ready to run with C-Series electric delivery van - FreightWaves

 

[Singuy]

I'd guess somewhere in between Q4'19 and Q1'20 numbers. China inventory will definitely grow, simply because production rate grew.

Overseas excl. China will likely be extremely low, because demand should've outpaced supply. A lot of the production that is usually allocated to overseas, would've been produced during Fremont shut down.

They're likely doing their best to sell as much as they can in NA, but I'd guess it'll be slightly higher than at the end of Q4'19. Iirc they didn't have to use any incentives to sell inventory at the end of Q4'19, but all these incentives this quarter indicate Tesla is having to work harder to sell all vehicles in NA.

Don't confuse sells with deliveries. Free super charging for all current m3 is to incentives delieveries. Cars are already sold. People are getting emails about picking car up before June 30th to get 1 year of supercharging, not order before June 30th. They want people to call out of work and ditch their kids to pick up a car.

Elon is going for a FU push this quarter. Analysts are prepared for Tesla to have a bad quarter but Elon is in it to win it. Still calling it now, this will be Tesla's highest gaap + quarter to show Tesla's position of strength, and to see Chanos pee in those short shorts during earnings report.

 

[Tslynk67]

Small data point. InsideEV’s reporting that overall Swiss car sales are own 39% yoy for the month of May, plug-in EV’s are up 40%, M3 with 16% of the market.

 

[FrankSG]

I'm not convinced of that means low sales.

I don't think it does either. It's just that it looks like they have to pull a few levers to get to high sales/deliveries this quarter.

Which is unsurprising, because for NA they basically had a full quarter worth of production, but only half a quarter worth of demand. If they didn't have to pull any levers in NA, that would've been absurdly bullish.

 

[mongo]

Don't confuse sells with deliveries. Free super charging for all current m3 is to incentives delieveries. Cars are already sold. People are getting emails about picking car up before June 30th to get 1 year of supercharging, not order before June 30th. They want people to call out of work and ditch their kids to pick up a car.

Did you mean orders vs deliveries?
This is Tesla, it's not a sale till the car is delivered. I agree with you on incentivizing Q2 pick up (the in transit metric). However, I've also read tales of people placing new orders this week and getting delivery this quarter.

 

[MarcoRP]

Weekend OT

Happy Birthday to everybody born 69 days after 4/20! Special greetings to a certain visionary entrepreneur who builds rockets and digs tunnels as a hobby and builds amazing electric cars for a living (you know who you are).

Me looking around to see if anyone noticed it’s Elon’s birthday. Doh!!

 

[StealthP3D]

Weekend OT

Happy Birthday to everybody born 69 days after 4/20! Special greetings to a certain visionary entrepreneur who builds rockets and digs tunnels as a hobby and builds amazing electric cars for a living (you know who you are).

I would celebrate Elon's birthday with cake, ice cream and candles but that seems a bit trite for the most bad-ass (and important) industrialist of the 21st century.

So Happy Birthday Elon!

____________

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thank you! It really opened my eyes on Litium and Tera Factory building!

Except Nickel and Graphite are the main ingredients, not lithium. Same question there too, except we know chem keeps changing. If the Lithium supply is an issue within 10 yrs, it has already been solved.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I feel like people read way too much into individual reports and try to make it seem like the global situation for the quarter is smooth.
There may be relatively low demnand in state A, and insane demand in states B,C and D. There may for some reason be more problems delivering cars in state E than state F, or maybe insufficient delivery drivers/admin personnel in state G whereas state H has surplus everything.
Someone ordering a new car and getting in within a day or two just means they happened to order a black model 3 LR+ with black interior in the exact same county where they happen to have one too many of those.
I suspect logictics for a company this big, and growing thjis fast is complex as hell.

Just buy and hold, we will know soon enough. Anything in the 80s+ is absolutely awesome I reckon.I still assume lower though.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I feel like people read way too much into individual reports and try to make it seem like the global situation for the quarter is smooth.
There may be relatively low demnand in state A, and insane demand in states B,C and D. There may for some reason be more problems delivering cars in state E than state F, or maybe insufficient delivery drivers/admin personnel in state G whereas state H has surplus everything.
Someone ordering a new car and getting in within a day or two just means they happened to order a black model 3 LR+ with black interior in the exact same county where they happen to have one too many of those.
I suspect logictics for a company this big, and growing thjis fast is complex as hell.

Just buy and hold, we will know soon enough. Anything in the 80s+ is absolutely awesome I reckon.I still assume lower though.

How much do you think that Analysis' will go off and raise their expectations, this week, only to try and bash the "fail" if they're not in the 90's or something?

I'm actually surprised more haven't raised yet.

 

[goinfraftw]

I re-read this Wikipedia page: Paris Agreement - Wikipedia

...after reading it, does anyone else feel like we're all just armchair quarterbacks here on an already made win?

1. Ignoring the FUD, rationally understand that all countries (including SYRIA) decided to collaborate for the 1st time in history.
2. Paris Agreement is not legally bound, but collaboratively and consensus-ly (i.e. politically) bound.
3. At least $100B needs to be mobilized for climate change, worldwide, by 2020 going until 2025 ANNUALLY.
4. Agreement is bottom-up rather than enforced top-down across the planet.

There's a lot more I don't completely understand, but it's probably the most remarkable, world-wide, agreement human civilization has ever put together. I'm just going to ignore the FUD at this point; seems pretty contrived when taking the Paris Climate Accord into account fully.

1 year later: COVID, Worldwide lockdowns, Massive protests, Australia Wildfires, Massive Locusts Swarms in Africa/India, 100° temps in Siberia, 5-6x increase in TSLA, Model Y, ESG in co's...

...it looks like we're living through it. What did I miss?!

 

[vikings123]

I feel like people read way too much into individual reports and try to make it seem like the global situation for the quarter is smooth.
There may be relatively low demnand in state A, and insane demand in states B,C and D. There may for some reason be more problems delivering cars in state E than state F, or maybe insufficient delivery drivers/admin personnel in state G whereas state H has surplus everything.
Someone ordering a new car and getting in within a day or two just means they happened to order a black model 3 LR+ with black interior in the exact same county where they happen to have one too many of those.
I suspect logictics for a company this big, and growing thjis fast is complex as hell.

Just buy and hold, we will know soon enough. Anything in the 80s+ is absolutely awesome I reckon.I still assume lower though.

Supply chain/material availability issues would be the only reason why they might not deliver more than 80K cars. They also pulled forward demand by reducing prices.

Keep in mind Tesla had 6 weeks of production downtime. Given the innovation DNA at this company they likely made a number of improvements to their supply chain and manufacturing to ramp up really quickly. It was surprising to see them ship as many cars as they did to EU/RoW once they came back online. And then also be able to serve the US market while also producing 15-18K model Ys this quarter.

 

[ruralectric]

Driving down I10 in Texas today I can say the Q2 push is very real. I’ve seen a few trucks carrying new cars east. (Another truck was half Tesla’s half normal cars)

Don't you mean "Another truck was half Tesla's half <sugar>"?

cheers

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Indeed, something as simple as updating the tail-lights would be a start, they look archaic.

And the interior is very stale now. In theory my next car is a Roadster II (excusing MY for wifey), but I'm slightly hesitant because of the obvious lack of practicality. The other option would be a Plaid MS, but TBH I wouldn't buy one without a major update to the interior.

Lack of practicality??? That practicality went all out the window when someone can afford to buy the roadster....You only need 2 seats anyways...one for you and one for your girlfriend...i mean wife.

 

[VValleyEV]

Owning a Tesla is an advantage as an investor.

I bought my first Tesla in September 2016, when FUD was even more out of control than usual ("Solar City merger will bankrupt Tesla" blah blah blah). Experiencing how amazing my Model S was on a daily basis gave me the courage to add heavily to my investment through the end of the year, when TSLA was at bargain prices (best buying opportunity until May/June 2019).

I bought my Model S in Sep 2018, and experienced same disconnect between the awesome car and the BS from the press, and that is what persuaded me to purchase some stock at those amazingly tasty prices. Many have pointed out that I could have done spectacularly better if I put the money in TSLA rather than the MS, but is was having that car that really opened my eyes to the investment opportunity.

There continues to be such a steady stream of BS in the press that owning a Tesla is similar to having inside information.

THIS puts it so very well.

 

[StealthP3D]

How much do you think that Analysis' will go off and raise their expectations, this week, only to try and bash the "fail" if they're not in the 90's or something?

I'm actually surprised more haven't raised yet.

The hater analysts are paralyzed. They are afraid if they raise too much the share price will emulate a Falcon rocket but if they raise too little Tesla's results will blow them away. Either way, the results are the same. So they are paralyzed with fear and stuck doing nothing.