Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Not bad at up over 5% today.

i hate to burst everyone’s bubble, but in other news NKLA gained 6.3% today, with investors hoping that the company will one day be able to show some sort of revenue from some sort of product. (Rumors are the Nikola Store will be selling T-shirts soon!)

 

[mongo]

A little tougher to look back and decide when that earnings report was. I think I see in in PAYC and I see two positive in a row for TWTR.
If that is the case, it seems to propel things quite a lot higher, like 50%.
Those studies are really kind of meaningless then

Further examples and discussion invited. Dates for when data allowed inclusion preferred because that is what needs to be looked at.

My snapshots start just before the previous earning report.
It's all case by case though.

 

[Knightshade]

SP500 inclusion?

do research. Here ya go:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/40...ing-what-happens-when-stock-is-added-to-index
At least read the abstract: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr484.pdf
2.7-5.4% affect? Is that worth it? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v64.n5.7?journalCode=ufaj20
Cumulative excess returns zero? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v43.n1.58?src=recsys

I'd love a big rush up but history does not seem to support.
Any contrary evidence?

AFAIK nothing else came into the S&P 500 with anywhere NEAR the market cap tesla will have (meaning a lot more of it needs to be bought by index funds) and also that level of short float needing to fight the index funds for covering shares

 

[Nocturnal]

Ok, got inspired by you jerks to spend some money in the Tesla store. Would have spent more but they haven't restocked kids t-shirts in months it seems.

 

[Stretch2727]

No I just went to Redhat because it was the only one I remembered during my trading time.
The others came from wikipedia, adjusted for dates, went back to examine. SP500 addition date easy to find, that is what I examined.

I think you also need to consider the market cap of the company added to the S & P. Tesla is unusual that it has a large market cap and was not added earlier. The estimate is $60B (yes billion) will flow into Tesla.

I would also guess most funds will front run the inclusion and add prior to the official date based on earnings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Jun 29, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA roars back to a 2nd-place ATH Close"

Traded: $8,821,500,765.27 ($8.82 B)
Volume: 9,026,683
VWAP: $977.27

Closing SP / VWAP: 103.33%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = 187.209B / 178.308B = 104.99%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 57.3% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.3% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.51% of Short Volume (54th Percentile rank)​

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

I would also guess most funds will front run the inclusion and add prior to the official date based on earnings.

Even a small loss in Q2 could kick that process off... most good judges with then conclude inclusion after Q3 results is very likely,

I have had that opinion for some time, and Q2 might be closer to a profit than I previously expected.

There is no prize for being the last ones to join the party...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think I cracked the TSLA short seller algorithm:

while(portfolio > 0) {

print "Tesla is a great short at $N"
N += 100
portfolio -= 100000​

}

 

[Highway2Heel]

Even a small loss in Q2 could kick that process off... most good judges with then conclude inclusion after Q3 results is very likely,

I have had that opinion for some time, and Q2 might be closer to a profit than I previously expected.

There is no prize for being the last ones to join the party...

In other words...

 

[qphan79]

UGH... I'm so tempted to by FSD on my Model X just to support 2Q #'s.. but I would hate for it to be all for naught. Therefore, it has to make sense to spend $7k for the actual service.. which idk if I can justify. Thoughts? Encouragement?

Just do it!! You also have 48 hours to return if you change your mind though. I probably had the same mindset as you...I like driving so much that I didn’t think FSD would ever be worth it. But FSD is already great now and only going to be getting better in the coming days!

 

[Prunesquallor]

After-action Report: Mon, Jun 29, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA roars back to a 2nd-place ATH Close"

Traded: $8,821,500,765.27 ($8.82 B)
Volume: 9,026,683
VWAP: $977.27

Closing SP / VWAP: 103.33%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = 187.209B / 178.308B = 104.99%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 57.3% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.3% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.51% of Short Volume (54th Percentile rank)​

View attachment 558376

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

Missed one important point. @Prunesquallor F’ed up and missed his epic dry powder shot at 948.

 

[MABMAB]

@mabman
Extend your charts back to the earnings report that qualified the stock
WST:
View attachment 558353
TWTR:
View attachment 558352
PAYC: Oct 29
View attachment 558360

THANK YOU

 

[Artful Dodger]

Missed one important point. @Prunesquallor F’ed up and missed his epic dry powder shot at 948.

I know, right? Some days I feel like a kid in kindergarten.

Cheers!

 

[dgodfrey]

Not bad at up over 5% today.

i hate to burst everyone’s bubble, but in other news NKLA gained 6.3% today, with investors hoping that the company will one day be able to show some sort of revenue from some sort of product. (Rumors are the Nikola Store will be selling T-shirts soon!)

I think we've been hardened to analyze competition to Tesla from years of defending and deflecting and hopefully digesting the short narrative for a decade now. I know that I've learned what to look for when a company talks a good game. Every time Milton makes some outrageous claim, it reminds me of what Elon may have looked like at the time to the uninformed. And then I look into why it's different.
We can now shred the comparison with ease having the trump card of credibility, accomplishments, results and actual product. One is real, the other isn't. I do agree with others here though that rather than become one of the NKLAQ, take the high road and ignore it.

The other observation that I have about why NKLA is doing so well is that there's a huge population of anti-Tesla and anti-Elon types that will cheer on any challenger to dethrone the new king. It seems obvious to us that they really haven't even looked into what the challenger's arsenal is or even if they have one. It doesn't matter to them because it's ABT (Anything But Tesla). I run into this on other BEV forums all the time and they will take any little scrap of negativity and that's their argument to pile on with claims that Tesla is the devil and Musk is a cult leader. They have a confirmation bias that runs wild without cause and no matter what evidence you provide, they will not budge. They have a religious detachment from reality of "don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up".
It's somewhat pathetic that they will avoid Tesla at all costs while suffering with slow charging, frustrating road trips, uncomfortable seats, lack of OTA, etc., and try to puff up the features of a Bolt or Leaf as superior to the point of flagrant lying. Truly the definition of delusional.

 

[dl003]

I don't think market cap of a company has as big an effect on stock price as the percentage of the total stock market that is under the management of index funds. So 18b or 180b, sounds like more than 30% of float will be bought by index funds, or 60% adjusted for existing inst holdings and I think that's the most important factor. So think back to February 4 when we had 50m+ shares changing hand in a day, 35m more than the average which is in the neighborhood of how many will be bought by index funds. I think we can expect a conservative 20% increase or more likely 30% from this.

 

[AlMc]

Either Tim needs to hang it up or CNBC needs to up the quality of its contributors.

Is there a box to check off indicating 'BOTH'

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone have an estimate on 2Q deliveries required for a good shot at 2Q GAAP profitability?

Before Elon's e-mail to employees encouraging them to go all out to "ensure" Q2 profitability I would have told you it's possible to be profitable with only 50K sales and possible to show a loss with 90K sales.

However, considering Elon's e-mail, I will now say the number required to achieve profitability is about 2% less than they will deliver.

 

[Silentk]

Volkswagen factory produces last ever combustion engine car, shifts to EVs only | The Driven

The tide is turning...

 

[StealthP3D]

hi all,
is there anyone concerned about the flood that is on goin in China? How much does it affect the delivery in China in the remaining days of Q2 and future quarters?

The flood happening in Shanghai district will have a huge impact on profitability and their ability to deliver. Whenever you have a flood of vehicles this large coming out of a Tesla factory in the worlds largest EV market, you can bet your bottom dollar it's going to have a big impact on deliveries.

 

[dl003]

Volkswagen factory produces last ever combustion engine car, shifts to EVs only | The Driven

The tide is turning...

so they have solved the problem of space to park cars without working software? Bullish.