Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

It always seems to be the weeks that I'm away from my computer that this stuff happens...

The last few months the investor class must have finally done the math on battery cost curves compared to ICE cost curves to learn what most of us have already known for a few years now.

Dino powered cars are dinosaurs.

 

[mongo]

Try again....?
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View attachment 563678

Great find!

I'm minded to think that might be a mistake on the S+X web pages. They only just changed them to 225kW. Would they then change the cars to 250kW just about a month later? No-one has reported 250kW anywhere (owners or media). On the other hand, maybe @kengchang just had an amazing scoop!

The specs were updated sometime between June 28 and July 9 (per Wayback Machine). It previously stated 200kW.

The 225kW was a bump up for certain versions of existing cars. The 250kW wording change is an update for new production.

 

[Silentk]

Excerpts from the article:
"His financial success—and the fantastic life his portfolio has afforded his family—is a testament to the power of compounding....."
"His fortune comes not from some flash of entrepreneurial brilliance but from a lifetime of prudent buy-and-hold investing"

Paging @StealthP3D

To be fair seems like he made his millions from lens colouring and lens colour removal tech. The buy and hold turned that into billions. Easier when you have the big money to start with! Seems like a lovely guy though.

 

[willow_hiller]

The specs were updated sometime between June 28 and July 9 (per Wayback Machine). It previously stated 200kW.

The 225kW was a bump up for certain versions of existing cars. The 250kW wording change is an update for new production.

Some good discussion about it on /r/teslamotors: Model X specs now showing 250 KW supercharging max. : teslamotors

Evidently they found it about 9 hours ago.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Anyone know if @Papafox is OK? He hasn’t posted his trading chart for Friday (of all days).

Of course, he could be starting a separate thread just for that day...

Weekends he sometimes posts much later on Sunday or so
I’m sure @Papafox is okay (unless kidnapped by $TSLAQ)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Are you guys still comfortable buying in the 1500 range? I currently have 12 shares, still have some money left to buy 3 more shares, but i’m having doubts perhaps i should wait for a dip, marketcrash? Just to buy more shares than i can buy right now. I know we got good things to come but still.. like to hear others opinions thnx.

$TSLA will go up to $2000 or even $3000 possibly but eventually will have a hard and fast drop

 

[jerry33]

Why do you want a 3,650 mile battery in your car? If that technology comes, I would rather have a battery that is 1/6 the size. The car would still be capable of driving 600+ mile on a single charge yet the car would be much lighter and there would be much more space.

It probably needs 3,560 miles to get the 225,000 mile life. 1/6 of 225,000 miles isn't a lot.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

(unless kidnapped by $TSLAQ)

Oh no, we're gonna have to come up with $20 billion to get him back.

 

[StealthP3D]

The Tesla announcement says that eligible shareholders may attend battery investor day. I can only imagine, crowd size will limited to safe numbers and distancing.

Leaves me wondering, what an eligible shareholder will be.

Elon keeps a "little black book", well, not really a black book, just a database of questionable shareholder/owners. Any shareholder listed here will not be eligible.

How to get in Elon's little black book:

1) low conviction shareholders
2) anyone who sold as soon as we hit $900
3) suggesting a demand problem
4) complaining of panel gap variances of less than 2.1 mm
5) FUSC owners whose favorite pastime is hanging out at their local Supercharger(s)
6) "hearting" a Mark Spiegel Tweet
7) using an acronym you invented


/s

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting. What would you project the Rise and fall to be to? (Ie rise to $2800 pre-inclusion and fall to $1500 post)

I'll refer you to my initial statement:

"This type of thing (effect of SP addition) is notoriously difficult for anyone to predict, and especially this far in advance since the macro climate at the time of addition will have quite an impact."

 

[Jack6591]

Why do you want a 3,650 mile battery in your car? If that technology comes, I would rather have a battery that is 1/6 the size. The car would still be capable of driving 600+ mile on a single charge yet the car would be much lighter and there would be much more space.

The automotive industry has always been a feature-rich environment. Battery size and density offerings should not be limited. Application, application, application, Tesla needs a quiver full of arrows.

 

[StealthP3D]

There was a cute Seal of the President of the United States on it at least.

Are you implying the President uses disposable masks that cost $211 each and were made by a company owned by one of his donors?

That's not very funny!

 

[ZsoZso]

Why do you want a 3,650 mile battery in your car? If that technology comes, I would rather have a battery that is 1/6 the size. The car would still be capable of driving 600+ mile on a single charge yet the car would be much lighter and there would be much more space.

If you watch the video, it is explained clearly. While the current Li-ion technology produces batteries that lasts several thousand charge cycles, the new technology (Li-metal and anodeless) is so far not capable of anything in that ballpark, best lab results reach only ~75 charge cycles before the battery dies. You wouldn't want to build a car that needs full battery replacement several times a year -- regular 6-months maintenance instead of oil change, do battery change for tens of thousands of $$$ ? That would not fly!

However, the insane capacity per weight makes the technology viable if you only need to charge once a few months, then you can reach 250k miles with that kind of battery pack before it dies. That is reasonable, plus no more range anxiety!

 

[LTC_RRR]

Looks good! Hawke is no David Bowie, but whacha gonna do?

Neither was N. Tesla

 

[Mo City]

$TSLA will go up to $2000 or even $3000 possibly but eventually will have a hard and fast drop

When do you expect that hard drop to happen?

 

[Thumper]

Extreme storage density and absolute quantity implies extreme danger in case of uncontrolled discharge. How do others see this?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

However, the insane capacity per weight makes the technology viable

Surely the best application of insane capacity for weight is electric airplanes?

 

[Bet TSLA]

$TSLA will go up to $2000 or even $3000 possibly but eventually will have a hard and fast drop

Always certain. Always wrong.

 

[StealthP3D]

Those are splitting hairs looking for a reason to choose a 3 IMO.

I have nothing against the Model Y, I have actually been considering recommending my wife trade in her Model 3 for a Y. But it's our road trip car and I love how far it can go on a single charge at higher speeds with the Aero covers on. So, for that very reason, I've been reluctant to recommend trading it in. I actually did mention it once as an option but my wife is reluctant to give up "her baby". I don't even think the LR RWD is available anymore. In my opinion, there is something special about that car.

And, as for the way I use my car, I drive a lot of little-travelled twisty roads and I would seriously miss the road-hugging ability of my Stealth P3D. I'm sure the Performance Model Y handles great, perhaps the best handling crossover available, but there is no way it's gonna match the way I can squirt out of a tight, wet corner in my 3. It's like magic! Regardless of what people say, it really is a sports car (and I would apply that to the RWD just as much). The Model 3 is not the most narrowly focused sports car but it has that personality while still being a great daily driver. For me, a car is much more than a way to get from A to B. It's only splitting hairs if you only view a car as an appliance. Which, I agree, is probably most car buyers.

 

[tinm]

The age old question. We could run up to $2500, then see a fall back to $1800 and you don't get the chance to get in at this price, or it might fall back to $1400 next week!

If you're planning to invest for the long term, I'd most likely just get in now, but there's no right or wrong answer.

As a way to accumulate more shares for the long run, I'm tempted to put in some good-til-canceled orders at 3000, 4000, and 5000 just to catch a possible spike in the next 60 days which would no doubt come back down for a breather at base camp to regroup before the march up the side of the mountain again.