Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

I've just noticed that on the Tesla website, there is zero inventory for any Tesla model in the US or Europe

Now, this would be unprecedented, in the past few years, there has always been the odd Model S or X available. Even if demand was sky high, you would expect a certain combination to be available in inventory, an ex-display model or something.

I am thinking that models released from 1st July may have something special about them, and for that reason they don't want any inventory hanging around.... and this will be linked to battery day and will be mind blowing. I know that this is not an original idea as there have been some great YouTube videos (a very good Now You Know one) about this. But, this seems like it COULD be evidence.

Either that, or the Tesla website has started using cookies and only showing me inventory for Spain even if I check other countries

EV-TSLA.com - Global Inventory Search

This tends to crawl the website and maintain a better track record.

There are currently 231 model 3, 171 model S, and 235 model X for the US. Europe, though, does display 0 inventory models.

 

[carterm2]

In the spirit of "not a flamethrower", Elon should rename autopilot with autonada. Lets see if automating nothing misleads any customers.

StarPilot!

 

[Tslynk67]

Several people already posted a link to Rob Maurer discussing the mechanics of a possible S&P 500 inclusion. What I found very interesting, starting at 13:50, is that a source with - according to Rob - inside knowledge of the inclusion process told him that other companies have in the past been asked to do a secondary offering to improve liquidity.

We all know that TSLA inclusion will probably lead to (extreme?) illiquidity of the stock, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the committee asks Tesla to do the same. Tesla may not have an immediate need for more cash, but they may have an immediate need for more shares.

Sure, but we don't want liquidity, do we, we want the squeeze we've been waiting for all these years.

Now I think I understand why Citadel Securities loaded-up on those 4.3 million shares earlier this year, I think they're front-running S&P. They can trickle-feed those shares to market and make a fortune.

I really love/appreciate it when someone posts a chart and then explains what it is telling them. Thank you.
So then the MM's allowing th stock to go up into the $1700's range was to encourage purchase of calls above $1700? That explains some of the craziness on Monday. And then they drove it back down so quickly to make it look like to those that don't believe the economy is going well to purchase "safe" puts...and they just let end the week up another hundred if it doesn't get away from them.
The Profit Report being released in the middle of next week will make the puts/calls graph look very interesting? and telling? or will the MM's take the money off the table next week.

Maybe, it's all theoretical and when it goes as one says you're a prophetic genius, but the two previous weeks the MM's got their a$$es handed to them on a plate, so let's see.

Keep in mind the funds are more or less buy and hold investors in any new shares issued.

This is also a very salient point - these funds will HODL even more than we retail investors, more and more shares will be tied-up and out of circulation. This by itself will create upward pressure.

Our daily dose of comedy. Try not to laugh challenge. I made it 49 seconds.

The highlights:

She thinks you should invest based on cash flows and earnings rather than what people will do... is she freaking stupid? Unless you invest for dividends, you buy a stock exactly because you expect someone to buy it off of you for a higher price in the future. What people do is of course based on things such as cash flows and earnings, but you ultimately invest based on what you think people will do based on that information.

"I would short it if I could, and I'd have a lot of fun shorting it, BUT I don't have a strong conviction either way".... ehm what? This lady is almost as funny as Adam Jonas.

She has no clue, simple as that.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I lost my ability to drive a manual, even driving an automatic ICE seems weird these days..

For some reason transmissions can be a problematic wear item in some modern ICE cars... (according to a good mechanic who we trust).

The German designed hot hatch just has to be a bit better than the competition, and drive a bit like a Tesla, and it will sell like hot cakes in Europe,...

I've driven around Europe in one myself (in the days when I could drive a manual), parking in European cities and even small towns can be tight, a small easy to park car, is a lot less hassle.

The parking is key. If you have a small car you can find a spot much easier. If you have a larger car, you'll really struggle to get a parking space large enough.

 

[UkNorthampton]

For parking, less is more...

 

[WarpedOne]

>> For parking, less is more...

Yes, two wheels FTW.

 

[UkNorthampton]

>> For parking, less is more...

Yes, two wheels FTW.

It's lovely being in the Netherlands for example. However, in the Uk, very few places where I feel a bike is safe. I've known more people injured on bikes than anything else and much of this is behaviour of some unpleasant car drivers.

Not many cars in Metelkova as I recall. A prison turned into an arty hotel (Celica?).

 

[WarpedOne]

Two wheels not safe enough?

Link

Unfortunately, it was just a concept so I had to settle with TM3 ..

 

[lascavarian]

Nissan Ariya on CNBC now.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Nissan Ariya on CNBC now.

Am I the only one who thinks that is a very unfortunate name for any product post WW2? (I know, different spelling, but pronunciation is way too close for comfort).

 

[junas]

A delivery/service van would take some attention away from Amazon/Rivian plans and a possible niche market they may have been contemplating. Elon is good at preemptive strikes against so-called or would-be competition.

I wouldn't say delivery vans are a niche market. It might be in the states, but look at Ford Europe 2019 sales:

* ford fiesta: 227100 (wasn't this most popular in the UK?)
* ford focus: 223100 (3rd most popular n the UK?)
* ford transit/tourneo vans: 263600
* ford ranger: 12900 (yes, 12900 despite being most sold pickup truck in Europe. You can spot these only when there is a motor circus in town.)

Van segment is too important to be missed in the long term. Since people have very small cars in Europe most things are delivered to home.

 

[kanweg]

The parking is key. If you have a small car you can find a spot much easier. If you have a larger car, you'll really struggle to get a parking space large enough.
View attachment 564755

Small Practical cars will all look about the same (ugly). I thought Elon shouldn’t worry about cool looks and instead focus on 4 wheel steering as the unique selling point. Might raise the price too much, but perhaps he can pull it off.

 

[Favguy]

Small Practical cars will all look about the same (ugly). I thought Elon shouldn’t worry about cool looks and instead focus on 4 wheel steering as the unique selling point. Might raise the price too much, but perhaps he can pull it off.

Small cars do not have to be ugly, there are some very nice exceptions. The current fiat 500 being just one of them. Tesla should absolutely worry about looks. the aesthetic of a product, especially a premium one is very important.

 

[elasalle]

Small cars do not have to be ugly, there are some very nice exceptions. The current fiat 500 being just one of them. Tesla should absolutely worry about looks. the aesthetic of a product, especially a premium one is very important.

Maybe design/manufacturing based on Cybertruck would work. ... Just the Front portion of Cybertruck, no pickup at the back
Simple Triangle all Stamped in one, make full use of Glass.
~ Cheers!!

 

[lascavarian]

Blackrock guest on CNBC comments reduced position at 1000 ish shr price but still holds personally. Personalities trying to narrow down where he sold but he was cagey. Frothy seems to be the preferred framing. Seems fund was in and buying at $300 but out at $1000 for now.

 

[Runarbt]

Two wheels not safe enough?

Link

Unfortunately, it was just a concept so I had to settle with TM3 ..

Damn.. that would be cool. Elon! - please, can I have a 1+1 seat version of this awesome 3-wheel tilting vehicle?

 

[ZachF]

Like wtf is this company's fundamentals anymore? What other manufacturing company is positing profits Q2?

...PPE makers?

 

[bhtooefr]

It is worth noting that for an EV, C segment (think Golf or Focus) should be easier than B segment (think Polo or Fiesta)

Side crumple zone has to be so wide, so the wider the car is, the more battery you can fit as a percentage of total width, improving range.

Longer wheelbase allows fitting more battery, improving range. It also allows a lower seating position for the same passenger space, reducing frontal area, improving range.

Longer body allows better streamlining, improving range.

If you're battery cost/supply-constrained, of course the battery benefits of going bigger don't apply, but the aerodynamic benefits do still apply. (In that case, it may make sense to do a car that straddles segments, like the Skoda Rapid, which was built on a narrower width B-segment platform, but longer wheelbase to fit into the C-segment length.) But, we're talking about Tesla here, not a legacy automaker.

And, I mean, a 4.3-4.4 meter long Tesla with smaller diameter tires (to make better use of the wheelbase) would still be quite a bit smaller than the Model 3. While B segment exists and is popular in Europe, I'd venture a guess that 500 km WLTP would be too difficult, whereas it shouldn't be much of a problem in the C segment. (Worth noting that comparing, say, a Polo (#3 best selling car in Europe in 2019) to a Golf (#1 best selling in Europe), the 1.0T Polos use more fuel than the 1.0T Golfs on WLTP.)

Premium C segment and B segment cars do both exist - the Germans have the Mercedes A-Class, Audi A3, and BMW 1-Series as premium C-segment hatches (and all three have sedan versions sold in the US (the BMW being the 2-series)), and the Audi A1 and MINI (owned by BMW) Hatch for the B-segment. So, there is a market for either.

Oh, and that's another thing - a C segment car is far easier to sell into the US market than a B segment car would be - and, similarly, a derived C segment CUV is an easier sell than a B segment CUV. (That doesn't mean Tesla shouldn't make a B segment car, but it means economies of scale may be better on the C segment car, and if they're resource-constrained (this means human, really, I don't think they're capital-constrained, and given design cycles they'll likely have battery resources under control by the time production would start) on what to make first, I'd prioritize C segment, and then move down to B segment.)

 

[Queeg500]

I do hope Franz and his team trawl this thread for our ideas. I'd hate them to create another pile of junk design that won't sell.

 

[LJS22]

Blackrock guest on CNBC comments reduced position at 1000 ish shr price but still holds personally. Personalities trying to narrow down where he sold but he was cagey. Frothy seems to be the preferred framing. Seems fund was in and buying at $300 but out at $1000 for now.

Seems his comments dropped the pre market price quite a bit