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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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They meet once a month, but some months have had two separate inclusions. I don't know how/why.

They can call a meeting whenever they think it's beneficial. Just like almost any board of anything can. The scheduled meetings are just for convenience, they don't preclude calling additional meetings to take care of important business in a timely manner.
 
Really? Ok give EVEN ONE SINGLE example where someone drove someone else out of business when they were production constrained. According to you they were selling out every item as fast as they could make them and still chose to cut prices?

‘You’re missing the whole point. When you are present and near future production constrained, cutting prices does not increase sales. It does not hurt your competition.

If it’s so simple, you must have lots of examples where they were production constrained completely selling out, ramping production as fast as possible and still cut prices. Correct?

First car makers and horse drawn vehicle makers? Production was probably constrained (am not sure). That may have been Ford's real prompt. It's always described as cost led but perhaps it was partly a way to solve volume.

Why buy a brand new horse carriage when these new cars will be increasing available and some good quality used horse vehicles will be available from people who upgrade.

Before cars, most horse carriage owners kept used ones themselves until they needed a new one. Buying used wasn't cheap. Buying new was ok as you got years of use. Now with an imminent glut of used ones, new sales of horse carriages will crash.

Same for propeller transport planes Vs jets (faster, quieter), military advances of all kinds (muzzle loaders, sail ships, spitfire/jets, coal/oil), velum/paper, ice/electric vehicles. HMS Dreadnaught quote... can't find but basically everything before was dismissed as pre-dreadnaught.

If you are an ice manufacturer who finances your vehicles whether car, van or truck (semi), your sales will diminish but more importantly your leased out vehicles will be worth less and less. At some point you are better off not making and leasing cars / lorries.

So I think the examples are not well described by history but are there when technology changes. What use was a military muzzleloader after cartridge rifles were introduced?
 
They are pre-empting the cutting of production. Yes, you can call it "juicing demand", my point is they have room to do that, and they have to do it when they substantially increase production (or else their prices were too low before the production increase). Because demand is highly sensitive to price. What matters is how much it costs you to produce it (and that is where Tesla has the lead).

And yes, it's related to technological lead, both in manufacturing but also in the engineering of the vehicle. Let me ask you this:

If Tesla can get the same functionality out of a 75 kWh battery that it takes another manufacturer 86 kWh to even come close to the same functionality, what does that do to the pricing of the respective cars? And any manufacturing lead is additive to this. There is a reason no other manufacturer is coming out with an EV made in the same volumes as the Model 3 (and soon the Model Y). Because they can't do it without losing boatloads of money.

I don't see the reduction in price as a problem, however it is useful to recognise what the driver is for pricing changes as it can provide insight into what may happen as production accelerates. While I want Tesla to charge as much as they can get away with for their vehicles it is far better to drop the price a little to ensure their increased supply is fully met with happy customers.

As the production volume continues to increase more rapidly (in # of units) We're likely to see more need to drop the price as there are only so many people with enough $ to afford vehicles at the current price at any given point in time. But as you say, that is a good thing while Tesla is driving their costs down as it helps accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. It also delivers more value per $ spent for the customer - which I think is one of the best signs of a healthy business.

As we get closer to full autonomy there could well be an argument to intentionally push margin compression over the short term if supply ramps faster than the market can adapt as the most important thing Tesla can do is increase the fleet size - leading to faster growth in the autonomous vehicle ride hailing service money printer. Kind of like Apple selling a lower priced Iphone to lock customers into their ecosystem, or Amazon throwing extra services into their prime bundle.
 
You must be joking! Actual facts about the business?? You mean there is a real functioning company behind this Wall Street Circus? :confused: /s

Hard to read what he really means, one interpretation is, if everything he wants is actually discussed in ER, and all of it is super peachy, then the valuation is justified. Personally, I still am no wiser for what this share price really means. I don't think it is justified by fundamentals, at least not with the usual sentiment. Maybe if we count in the systemic wind direction change in the overall sentiment towards Tesla, it is justified.
 
IMHO too much emphasis has placed on Tesla joining the S&P500. If they join, great, if not, whoopee doo. Tesla does not need to be added to their index to grow market cap. Same as Tesla does not need to buy their way into International Car Shows and advertise to grow their market share.

Exactly! In a post Internet age things move at the speed of light. It could be the S&P 500 has outlived it's usefulness and will slowly wither and die as a relevant metric of American public markets. Tesla is disruptive in more ways than might be obvious. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they (the S&P BoD) are so short-sighted they don't want TSLA and TSLA isn't about to try to appease them in any way they may request.

Elon has a middle finger and we all know he's not afraid to use it. :)
 
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Frankfurt opens in the green.

although the real i important issues are, Do we need steel balls until this evening or for three months?

Will Elon start selling long spoons next?

Keep your steel balls away from my transparent aluminium windows!

You need a long spoon when supping with the devil. Or Wall Street
 
With the baby tweet and this, not sure what to think:p
 

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Hard to read what he really means, one interpretation is, if everything he wants is actually discussed in ER, and all of it is super peachy, then the valuation is justified.

Cramer is a manipulator. At least he is on our side now (for now).

The way I took his comments:

He knows how earnings conference calls go, what kind of things management will say, etc. So he's reciting all the things he knows Musk will say during the conference call (as things investors should look towards for guidance) to help ensure a positive movement in the stock. Cramer probably has a large personal position in TSLA calls with strikes well over $2000 expiring in the next few months. He's one of the tools who will be pushing us to unfathomable heights if the macros allow it.

I don't really want this to happen but I can't deny it will be exciting if it happens! :D
 
What is Elon referring to - Autopilot 4D versus 2.5D?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1285812824581660676

BTW - Elon in a good mood just 14 hours ahead of ER - asking for memes....

Old neural network architecture is labelling one frame(2D) from a single camera and to train a neural network on the last two frames(2.5D(2D(x,y)+0.5D(~time))) to predictict where objects are in the image(2D) then do some neural network magic to get it into bird eye view(~2.5D).

New neural network architecture will take a video feed, generate a point cloud of all the static objects(3D) and of the moving objects(4D) and train a neural network to predict where static objects are(3D) and dynamic objects will be(4D) based on the current image frames and recurrent information from the neural network at previous timestep.


I think he is referring to how the neural network internally will be representing the information. If it needs to think in 4D it will start to think in 4D. In order to predict where a moving car will be in 4D space, which is needed in order to predict the depth of the next frame for example, the neural network will find an internal representation in vector form for this. See this video at 22:47
Here is a video about a similar technique:
 
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