Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TespaceX]

Deteriorating Chinese-US relations most likely. It'll be interesting to see where the U.S. goes from here; Trump is under growing political pressure to be "tough on China" after attacks from Democrats. However, he can ill afford a steeply correcting stock market heading into the election. Quite the box he's in.

China orders U.S. consulate in Chengdu closed in growing spat

That probably is the likeliest cause for tomorrow’s futures.

But, the extra $600 weekly CARES payment ending may have a (small) hand in it as well? For many states, including the larger states such as CA, TX, FL, and NY, this weekend marks the end of the extra $600 payment, even though the technical end date of the program is the 31.

 

[Mo City]

That probably is the likeliest cause for tomorrow’s futures.

But, the extra $600 weekly CARES payment ending may have a (small) hand in it as well? For many states, including the larger states such as CA, TX, FL, and NY, this weekend marks the end of the extra $600 payment, even though the technical end date of the program is the 31.

There has been rapid movement on this recently. There will be an extension in August (but probably not $600/week) and the gap may be bridged.

 

[Buckminster]

I do not believe that is correct....

As of last Fridays close there'd be about 26 million shares REQUIRED to be bought by the index funds.

The 60-80 million share #s throw around are people misunderstanding the difference between indexed and benchmarked and assuming the benchmark funds (which are larger than the index funds) will ALSO have to buy in exact weight... (which if they did would be almost 40 million more shares- but again they're not required to buy ANY)

Now, they might still buy some-likely will buy some- but then likely they already HAVE some since their composition isn't based on the actual index-some of the recent runup in price might well be such funds getting ahead of the game...plus those who want to add it later can always wait till after the chaos dies down if they do want to buy since again- no requirement on them....


ARKK is actually a great example of an actively managed fund that BENCHMARKS against the S&P500 (generally beating it too)- but is not required to mirror it... and indeed they already have the tesla shares they want (and often sell them off as the price goes up since they don't want TSLA to be more than a certain % of the value of the fund.)


So if only the index funds buy at inclusion, and they're the only ones that HAVE TO- that removes about 18% of the existing float. And it'll certainly bump the price up.

But not near as much as pulling 50-60% of the float off the market would as I've seen some folks claim would happen- because that'd only be true if the benchmark funds ALSO had to buy at the same time- and they don't.

Agreed, they don't have to. My guess is that they will buy 75% at least though. Who wants to answer to their boss when TSLA doubles and the CFO has to makeup the shortfall from reserves?

 

[adiggs]

That's like loan shark rates --- 30%

A few years back, I had my shares setup to participate in Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program. They were lent out pretty consistently and at the peak, I think I was being paid 14% to lend them out. Which means Fidelity was probably charging 20% to lend them (Fidelity borrows from me, and then lends to a short seller).

I thought I was being paid loan shark rates at that level . Then the rates went way down, and I pulled out. Not worth it to lend them out at 0.30% - that's barely more than a savings account.

 

[heltok]

Does it matter what rating Tesla has? They have $9B in the bank, starting in Q3 they will be making another billion+ per quarter in free cash flow. In 2-4months they will release city street FSD and unlock more deferred revenue.

How much does a factory cost to build? Shanghai cost 2B, let’s say they are 50%(conservative) done there, so they need 1B more, 2B for phase 1 of Giga Berlin, 4B phase 1 of Tera Texas. So even if they had to pay everything in Q3 they could probably do it. By the time spending is ramping up in Berlin and Texas, they will have had Q3 and Q4 added to their balance sheet. I feel confident that Tesla could announce 2-4more gigafactories without raising more money if they had the engineering manpower to handle even faster expansions...

 

[adiggs]

I'm sure there's been all sorts of S&P 500 front-running going on, in various ways, including both stock and option trading.

Not that anybody here would do any front running of S&P 500 inclusion

 

[Buckminster]

TSLA share float is like a frothy beer:

Shorts have been skimming around in the froth selling to one another. In 1 month, the froth will have pretty much disappeared forever. Bailie Gifford represents that first glug of cold nectar. Will Bailie Gifford want to convert their nectar to froth through a dark pool aerator to help the wasps get at it? Shorts and index funds will be competing for it but Bailie Gifford's investors have gotten used to the taste. It tastes 4 times as good as it did a year ago (beer always tastes better when the weather heats up). Do Bailie Gifford want to offer a frothy alternative like NKLA in it's place and risk their investors moving to ARK - not just yet thank you very much.

 

[chrsk]

With current 1465$ we are actually bellow last Friday, and that’s after q2

 

[WarpedOne]

>> With current 1465$ we are actually bellow last Friday, and that’s after q2

STFU and buy the dip.

 

[Artful Dodger]

↑ BT Newly-released Analyst's SP tgts:

• Mean: $1,393
• Std Dev: 663

Today I expect technical selling, then strong support at the Mid-BB:

The linear trend in the Mid-BB may see it near 1,390 at the Open today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Chamath on CNBC right now, absolutely destroying the bear thesis.

"Tesla's growth is about renewable energy components, not electric cars: Chamath Palihapitiya"

 

[JBRR]

Tesla getting upgraded by Moody's in the middle of a pandemic. Meanwhile, all other auto OEMS bordering on downgrades. How does that fit the TSLAQ narrative?

 

[Thekiwi]

Pre-market in tech stocks not looking pretty. TSLA down 5%.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Pre-market in tech stocks not looking pretty. TSLA down 5%.

Solution: Stay long. We’re going to be rewarded the next years. I think.

 

[Tslynk67]

For realz!

 

[Artful Dodger]

That was it? It was just typical MMD.

Fibonacci Retracement.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I'm over here sipping tea in regards to the stock price. Even if it drops back down to the $1400 numbers, it's still over $1000 from this time last year.

TSLA just being TSLA. :3

 

[Artful Dodger]

I spent nearly seven years in the United States Navy. Dating myself, that was from 1974 until 1980. That experience has often brought me to reflect upon the Navy’s role in protecting the world’s shipping lanes.

When considering the billions and billions of dollars spent on the U.S. military, the argument against Tesla regulatory credits leaves me speechless.

The U.S. Navy is tasked with protecting oil tankers and their cargo across the globe. Is this not a direct subsidy of the fossil-fuel industry?

Tesla regulatory credits; pocket change. The gall of the fossil-fuel industry is mind boggling. We should be crying bullshit in a loud and clear voice.

No kidding. What is the cost in capitol and human resources to keep the US 6th Fleet in the Eastern Med. Hint: it's trillions, because lost/wasted lives matter.

 

[charlesgres]

Seems to me that the funds are going to be able to buy in at bottom prices, so the run up we were all hoping for may not materialize.. It'll merely bring us back where we were last weeks..
Bummer..

Edit: which was double of what we had last month, I am not complaining.. but we'll miss the fireworks at the end, looks like it..

 

[RobStark]

Everybody here is going to love this.

Trump takes some credit for Tesla bringing manufacturing jobs to Texas.


Trump tells Hannity he urged Elon Musk to open Tesla plant in Texas