Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

Why are his views even presented, what’s CNBC agenda .
This looks premeditated.
Let the market place of investment ideas discredit his falsehoods.

Clearly they have an agenda. The immediate reaction is they are trying to bring down the stock price so their friends can load in time for S&P inclusion. Why else would they cancel Gali's appearance on Friday and interview this perma bear on a Monday morning? A guy who makes sense and repeats the same selective nonsense in every interview.

I think @StealthP3D posted his thoughts on Friday after Gali's interview was canceled. He may have been right.

 

[hobbes]

Love your analysis but you make it sound as if Q3 2020 is already in the bag! I agree it is very likely it will be a blowout quarter, but I think you are going a bit too far here.

Fair question. With past results, there have always been a few statistics that bears would highlight to spread doubt. The Q3 2020 results put these doubts to rest.

• Tesla is not profitable without Regulatory Credits (no longer true)
• Tesla loses money on each car sold (this was never true but more obvious now with profits excluding Reg Credits)
• The more cars Tesla sells, the more they lose (the opposite is clearly true now… revenues will grow 31% and GAAP profits will grow 242%....the Operating Leverage is huge).
• Even with growth in vehicles, revenues have declined or remained flat (no longer true)
• There is not enough demand to meet the production of two factories at full capacity (Q3 is the first test and Tesla has passed…demand has met ramped up production)
• Price Cuts will weaken margins (nope…margins went up)
• Tesla share price is too high (Sorry Elon..it's actually cheap - at $3.50 non-GAAP EPS for Q3, that is $14 annualized giving Tesla a 100 P/E ratio - Amazon was at a P/E of 236 when it first turned profitable (as are many growth companies)...at a 236 P/E, Tesla SP would have to be at $3,300)

With the Q3 results, the only FUD remaining is “the financials are fraudulent”. At that point, it is only the tin foil hats remaining in the FUD club.

 

[Todd Burch]

MMD right on cue. Seems to be getting eaten up. Makes me think once MMD is over we'll see a nice rise. We'll see.

 

[StealthP3D]

Clearly they have an agenda. The immediate reaction is they are trying to bring down the stock price so their friends can load in time for S&P inclusion. Why else would they cancel Gali's appearance on Friday and interview this perma bear on a Monday morning? A guy who makes sense and repeats the same selective nonsense in every interview.

I think @StealthP3D posted his thoughts on Friday after Gali's interview was canceled. He may have been right.

Right. Except Gali's appearance was scheduled for Thursday, the day after earnings release.

 

[Todd Burch]

Up it goes... mostly tracking macros at the moment, as we're still fighting MMD headwinds I believe, so there's currently no NASDAQ multiplier. Should see the increases intensify in the next hour I'd guess.

 

[Tslynk67]

MMD right on cue. Seems to be getting eaten up. Makes me think once MMD is over we'll see a nice rise. We'll see.

Certainly looking a bit more resilient than the previous two trading days...

Mondays have been kind to us in recent months, a repeat today would be most welcome - doesn't feel natural trading in the 1400's

 

[jbcarioca]

This is a bogus right-wing talking point. You may as well say that salaries paid to employees of companies are double-taxed (actually taxed to the Nth power) because purchasers of the sold goods or services have already paid taxes on their income used to pay for them.
Generally speaking, money is taxed whenever it changes hands. The wealthy already have all sorts of special exceptions carved out for themselves to minimize or eliminate taxes when it flows into their hands but it's never low enough to satisfy them so they spout this BS.

Funny! Actually the more money one has the less tax generally is likely to be paid, in percentage terms in the US and many other countries. That is entirely different than is the taxation for dividends in general. Obviously, when the shares are held in tax preferred instruments there is zero or little taxation, or at least long deferral of tax. Then there is carried interest and so many other techniques. None of that reflects the general reality that some, but far from all, investments have taxes paid by both source and recipient. That is true of dividends.

The US tax code and those of other countries in which I personally have been subject to taxation (inter alia France, UK, Brazil, Bahamas) is so skewed in favor of people who are already high income/high net worth that very little tax has been payable for me, and I am not nearly so well off as are many others. The only taxes that tend to actually be paid by richer people usually are property tax, sales tax/VAT and the odd road tax. Most of those taxes can be themselves tax-deductible with appropriate investment vehicles.

TSLA shareholders are different than that to the extent of ~10% or so of float is held by individuals who do not have enough resources to effectively eliminate taxation on income. For those people the taxation at source and to beneficiary on the same transaction can be significant. In any case TSLA will not be paying dividends anytime soon.

This could quickly devolve into seriously off-topic. If this debate needs further conversation we probably should go to Market Politics.

 

[Todd Burch]

My trendometer is sensing a trend.

 

[phantasms]

This morning's Ark newsletter..

 

[wtlloyd]

Bullsh*t is not data.

"know your enemy"?
I am reminded of how the Democrats ignored Republicans framing the ACA as "Death Panels" to their losing the momentum on the single payer proposal.
Knowing the dis-information being spouted helps to counter it, but you don't have to accept it just because you listened. That said, it is probably a big waste of time for many here who are long term investors, I can get that.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Looks like all the tech stocks that got hammered last week are making a bit of a comeback. AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, etc.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I saw somewhere - 'Fully Charged'? That someone is making a heat pump boiler for replacing or augmenting a gas boiler. I guess if the input to the gas boiler is hot enough, the gas boiler doesn't kick in. Personally, I can see in a future house (less likely this one, possibly as part of a major refurbishment) not having gas at all.

Gas is nice for cooking, but if it can be avoided you save the standing charge (daily charge irrespective of usage) and distribution losses.

From an out-of date article

"Typical standing charges range from:

• electricity – 5p to 60p per day
• gas – 10p to 80p per day"

I can't remember what we pay. Looks like Octopus is/was 19p per day - so roughly £6 per month - £72 / yr. In summer our gas standing charge is often higher than our usage.

We already use electricity for cooking, so can get rid of gas entirely. Payback time will be 10-20 years without subsidies mainly because of rather extensive plumbing to update to the air source heat pump, but updating the gas boiler (a new one cannot legally be put in the current place) would be worse as a similar amount of plumbing required and some gas pipe work (many people in the UK have the gas boiler in the kitchen, but ours is not suitable and putting it there would need even more plumbing). A side effect of removing the current gas boiler is that we can make the house more air-tight cutting down heating need.

A powerwall + heatpump to go with out 4 kW solar panels would be the most efficient solution, but payback time for the powerwall is currently too long for it to be worthwhile. With myself now retired and my wife working from home daytime electricity usage in winter is higher than our solar panel generation, daylight covers most of our waking hours in summer, so a powerwall would only be really useful in the spring and autumn. I suspect this is the situation for most homes in the UK, solar + heatpump is good, while a powerwall adds very little extra.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

whoa, making a big jump. Up 40+ now.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Gordon Johnson is so ridiculously wrong so often on Tesla that I don't see how anyone can trust his judgement on other investment advice. He must be marketing to fossil fuel related interests that he's one of them and not care about anyone else.

 

[Rarity]

Why are his views even presented

My theory is that he or an ally of his paid CNBC for the appearance (I assume the same when ARK investments is on). I don't think he got his money's worth, because the hosts' tone was too skeptical. And then he botched the delivery.

 

[elasalle]

Gordon Johnson is so ridiculously wrong so often on Tesla that I don't see how anyone can trust his judgement on other investment advice. He must be marketing to fossil fuel related interests that he's one of them and not care about anyone else.

CNBC keeps parading the "Boy who cried Wolf" - and no one believes him.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

TMC allows many different viewpoints, also ones critical of Tesla and Elon Musk, and censoring is not the preferred weapon of a moderator. But the link to a Reddit post containing hundreds of fake stories about Elon clearly does not belong on this forum. So it was removed, and so were all responses to it.

 

[CLK350]

Re robotaxis, ARK Invest just published a preliminary note: Ride-Hailing Is Overlooked as an Opportunity for Tesla mentioning driver assisted ride hailing as an Uber contender for large cities .."ARK estimates that Tesla’s ride-hailing service could deliver roughly 50% EBITDA margins, a premium to Uber’s in cities it dominates and, that at global scale and an average of $1 per mile, its addressable market would be roughly $50 billion .."

Re Dip Players - I wish I could figure out how to play the "long dips" like the current one. Normally, based on conviction, given I'm already 95% invested (not having sold any of course near the peak), I'm now trying to gather more funds and buy that dip, 6-15 % interest should be peanuts, but it takes so long to get approved ...

 

[Todd Burch]

And just like that, we now have a 2-3x multiplier. Slight breather here on the way back to $1500+.

 

[AlMc]

I do love seeing Gordo on CNBC....His next gig...Late night comedy on NBC.