Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jeewee3000]

However, as my shares are in a personal trading account, I could in theory just sell them on the 28th and rebuy on the 31st - or as someone else suggested, move everything into LEAPS. Of course then I'd lose by paying tax on the trade, but there's no capital gains due.

Selling on the 21st you mean. If you sell on the 28th you will still be awarded four shares for each share you held on the 21st.

21st of August will most likely be a down day for TSLA if EU-holders get bad news from their brokers.

 

[chrsk]

So with Max pain around 1435 I guess we will start the walk down today

 

[Tslynk67]

I know you've all got access to a ticker, but $1568 (+13.24 +0.85%) pre-pre-market is still a nice thing to point-out.

Volume of 3200 is as much already as we were getting in the whole session a few days back, so that bodes well.

Macro not looking great, Asian markets were mostly flat, FTSE is 1% down at the moment, but that's likely due to the UK officially now being in recession. US futures at -0.1%, which is meaningless at this time of the day and likely wouldn't impact $TSLA anyway given the current situation.

 

[Lessmog]

Use common sense. It's the VALUE of the dividend that gets taxed. A stock split dividend is a zero worth dividend.

I have no knowledge of tax laws in other countries but it would asinine to tax you on the four shares you get when the very valuable share that enabled those 4 shares just lost 4/5ths of it's value. That's just common sense.

People are making this out to be more than it is. Don't get me wrong, it's a great catalyst for a bull run but that's all it is. I'll take it.

FINALLY. Thank you!
I simply could not stay up all night and read all the posts since people write faster than I can read, but I had been waiting for someone to state this simple fact before I did. Now that that cat is out of the bag I can jump in:

Some folks (in Canada and Europe?) have been nervous about dividend tax of 15 or 25%. But Tax Man does not deal in securities, only money. How would you even go about to "pay" 15% of 4 shares, eh?

Not a problem, since the dividend is value neutral. It adds zero valuation (in and of itself). The churning of "investors" scrambling to locate the actual shares that they will owe on one particular date -- yes, that will most likely add a lot of valuation to TSLA, before that date. A whole other kettle of fish -- as tax goes.

So don't worry, be happy.

 

[charlesgres]

One other argument I haven't seen yet (but then again, may have missed a couple of thousand posts ):

If this was a dividend, it would be a 400% dividend, which is crazy.. and Tesla would have to finance the dividend, which of course they wouldn't.. it's your own shares that finance this 'dividend'.. [edit: so whatever the word used, it's not a dividend as dividend is understood: the company giving you an extra from their own pocket..]

Belgian law I read now looks at the before-after difference and if the value is the same and it was done in one transaction, then there's no taxation..

 

[saniflash]

Belgian law I read now looks at the before-after difference and if the value is the same and it was done in one transaction, then there's no taxation..

which makes a lot of sense, because there's no tax substrate (well apart from the negligible 3x $0.0001 par value you're given), whose existence however is one of the basic requirements for taxation . that's also the main reason why I think the German tax authorities will have a hard time taxing this.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Neg points for linking to Fwedtrek.

This video explains the paper (available on ResearchGate):

Also, hi Rob.. now I need to find an hour to watch this video lol.

The Tesla Daily video (just before 27 minutes) gave a nice little gem of info.

If you add all of the EV TARGETS of all the other (mainstream?) car makers, they are only aiming at building 80 million EVs by 2030, which Rob M argues is 10% of the 800 million car market of 2020-2030 leaving 90% open to Tesla. If these other companies miss their targets, even less EV/Tesla competition.

My opinion: the car market is Tesla's to lose (to China, who else?).

 

[UkNorthampton]

National Grid fires up coal power station for first time in 55 days

My opinion: UK - need more wind (over build), solar (domestic and industrial sized) and power storage (Home - Cryogenic Liquid Air + $TSLA Megapacks). Gas peaker plants not efficient in a heatwave. Also, for those who ignorantly believe that EVs are as bad as ICE because "coal is used for electricity". 30% of electricity from wind (and that's with current government preventing windfarms and not helping generally on any renewable projects. 3300 hours is 137.5 days coal-free in 2020. BTW thunderstorms here at the moment, very dark. Maybe a one day event! How economic is firing up coal for a few days a year?


"National Grid fires up coal power station for first time in 55 days
Heatwave brings wind turbines to standstill and causes gas plants to struggle
...
A string of power stations were unable to produce electricity on Wednesday because of planned maintenance work which often takes place during the summer, but even available gas plants produced less electricity than usual owing to the heat.

Gas plants can struggle to produce electricity at normal levels during high temperatures, according to experts at the energy data company EnAppSys, and it is normal for their power output to fall during heatwaves. They rely on a steady flow of air through its compressor, according to the energy technology firm Wartsila. It takes more energy to compress hot, humid air to the same mass as air which is cooler and drier, so many power plants become less efficient as the outside temperature rises.
...
Electricity output from Britain’s wind farms, which generated 30% of the UK’s electricity in the first quarter of this year, fell to lows of 4% on Wednesday afternoon.

The UK recorded its hottest August day in 17 years as temperatures climbed to over 36C earlier this week
...
It brings to an end the coal free run, but Britain has operated for almost 3,300 hours without coal so far in 2020 – over 60% of the year,"

 

[Mike Smith]

GM's highly regarded 41 yr old CFO Dhivya Suryadevara has quit. I bet a lot of the young bright talent there are disillusioned by the ongoing lies about 'going all in on EVs'.

Departure of GM CFO Dhivya Suryadevara highlights ongoing 'brain drain' problem for auto industry

 

[UkNorthampton]

GM's highly regarded 41 yr old CFO Dhivya Suryadevara has quit. I bet a lot of the young bright talent there are disillusioned by the ongoing lies about 'going all in on EVs'.

Departure of GM CFO Dhivya Suryadevara highlights ongoing 'brain drain' problem for auto industry

From your link:

No Adam, NOT the BIGGEST challenge...

Drip (Tesla), drip (emissions rules), drip (debt), drip (sales), drip (talent), drip (pensions), drip (public hate pollution)... flood.

"Adam Jonas this week called the competition for talent, or “brain drain,” the “biggest challenge facing” the Detroit automakers.


“While we did not anticipate this departure, we have published on our concerns about the ability of legacy auto makers to retain top talent and to attract it,” he wrote Tuesday in an investor note. Jonas cited a problem with the companies being “infused with environmental liabilities” in relation to internal combustion engines."

 

[MikeAtkinson]

The Tesla Daily video (just before 27 minutes) gave a nice little gem of info.

If you add all of the EV TARGETS of all the other (mainstream?) car makers, they are only aiming at building 80 million EVs by 2030, which Rob M argues is 10% of the 800 million car market of 2020-2030 leaving 90% open to Tesla. If these other companies miss their targets, even less EV/Tesla competition.

My opinion: the car market is Tesla's to lose (to China, who else?).

Yes, I saw that, flawed maths. Not all of those 800 million cars will be EVs, especially in the next few years, if we assume an S adoption curve then only about half will be EVs.

Tradition OEMs, if they also follow an S curve, will probably end up with about 20 million EVs in 2030 between them, Tesla and China will have the rest.

The above is assuming that the OEMs do not make further announcements of increased production, which is a bad assumption, they will.

 

[Yuha]

I have a guess why the split is done as a dividend rather than a regular split. It seems that a stock split requires the approval of shareholders but a dividend can be decided by the board:

One for the Lawyers: Forward Split in Delaware Requires Shareholder Approval

Since a split would almost certainly be accepted by shareholders, the issue is most likely timing.

I also found this but didn't read as the access seems to require at least a registration. Maybe someone more knowledgeable could read and summarize it for us:

Stock Split Checklist
by Practical Law Corporate & Securities

"This Checklist summarizes the key steps and considerations for effecting a stock split in the form of a stock dividend. It covers the steps and issues that are common to most companies, with a focus on reporting companies that are publicly held and incorporated in Delaware."

 

[Artful Dodger]

I know you've all got access to a ticker, but $1568 (+13.24 +0.85%) pre-pre-market is still a nice thing to point-out.

$1,589.07 (+$34.31 +2.20%) at 07:32 ET

 

[CaliBear1]

Ok, is it Hiro or Hiero? Further exposing my inner sci-fi geek, "Hiero's Journey" was one of my favorite books as a teenager. It was a fun and imaginative post-apocalyptic adventure set long after a nuclear war which spawned crazy mutated life forms. I could draw some parallels to make it relevant to this thread, but I'm too busy watching Shorts panic.

And yes, I'm getting old!

I am with YOU! I asked if anyone could get Hiero to do a Q&A with a group of YOUTUBERS/Ludicrous.

 

[chrsk]

$1,589.07 (+$34.31 +2.20%) at 07:32 ET

Will be interesting to see if they try to push it down at opening...

 

[OrthoSurg]

In a recent podcast, when asked to compare Tesla and Jaguar, Trevor said something like "in terms of software Tesla destroys Jaguar, in terms of quality Jaguar destroys Tesla"

The most important I guess is the quality of the software

 

[jeewee3000]

The battle for $320 is raging right now.

 

[H Mak]

We just hit $1600 in premarket

 

[JBRR]

 

[Bobfitz1]

Valuation?

By begining of 2022 Tesla will be making at least 2 million cars a year at $50k per car and a 15% margin.
That is 15 billion in profit and at a 50x P/E for a hyper growth company it will be worth 750 billion dollars or roughly 3x todays market cap.
Not including FSD or power or anything else.

And with Battery Day cost, density and lifetime improvements, Tesla will be able to lower product prices incrementally to keep demand growth ahead of supply. Which is not to say some price cuts will be needed to juice demand, just that having that lever if needed is great insurance.

Between now and 2022 there are multiple reductions of manufacturing cost arriving, led by the current expansion of Shanghai GF with it's higher margins. Roughly 3/4 of the 2M cars by 2022 will be made in new factories designed from the ground up to work at higher efficiency from multiple major innovations like the mega caster. It would be interesting to see some updated analysis of what the margin percentage is likely to be come 2022, when these margin increasing efficiencies are realized. The question of when TE starts growing into a sizable part of total revenue has been answered. It is this year and next. What is amazing about your valuation estimate is that 3x current by 2022 may turn out to be a conservative!