Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

There are many things, however IMO this ^ is why the markets let off some steam in the afternoon. AAPL @ $2T is a sign of a very frothy market. Still very long TSLA, just saying likely some steam will continue to come out of the market for the rest of this week.

AAPL @ $1T was frothy....so was MSFT @ $1T.....always healthy to have pullbacks before new ATH are realized. They can only hope to keep this rocket grounded till the next lift off.

 

[Mo City]

Anyone concerned when these EV reverse mergers that appear to be nothing but fraud inevitably implode it'll hurt the EV sector appearance and damage the stock like sun Edison did with residential solar companies.

Not in the slightest. Why would anyone think such a thing?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Imagine that there is a pallet with $3M on it falling from the sky. Wouldn't you try to catch it?

"Ms Tree catches a fairing half" | SpaceX (4 hrs ago)

That's right: if you bought TSLA, you DID catch it... "never bet against Elon".

Cheers!

 

[kbM3]

Rob Maurer recently stated in his presentation to Master's students that the automotive industry combined has plans to sell 80M vehicles from now until 2030. That's unlikely to lead to annual production of anywhere close to 40M in 2030, and they could also very well fall short of these targets.

More likely, I think Tesla will do ~15M in 2030, perhaps as much as 20M, and the rest of the industry combined might do a similar number, giving Tesla ~50% or slightly less than 50% market share.

80M / year X 10 years = 800M vehicles total between now and 2030

 

[MC3OZ]

80M / year X 10 years = 800M vehicles total between now and 2030

Battery Day might be firing the starting gun on the race to scale EV production quickly..

If Tesla is aiming for 20M EVs per year by say 2030-2035, what is everyone else planning?

No one has sketched out a plan of Tesla scaling to 20M vehicles per year:-

• Who quickly can it be done?
• What models in what volumes?
• How many factories?
• Where will they get the raw materials?

Tesla having pondered the list of questions above, and having some answers, would not surprise me...

There is around 60 GWh of battery production currently planned for Europe - close to 2 X GF1.
Chinese battery production is going rapidly... the Europeans scaling up their plans would be no great surprise.

The Chinese are not even waiting for Tesla to fire the starting gun....

I think the transition will be quicker than many expect, but it can also be slower than I expect.
Picking the trend is easy, picking the precise timing is difficult.

The relevant factor at this time is it is hard to imagine a competitor scaling battery volumes, and hence vehicle volumes, faster than Tesla.

 

[MP3Mike]

80M / year X 10 years = 800M vehicles total between now and 2030

That is 80M total between now and 2030. Not per year. (And that is across multiple OEMs.)

 

[Singuy]

Battery Day might be firing the starting gun on the race to scale EV production quickly..

If Tesla is aiming for 20M EVs per year by say 2030-2035, what is everyone else planning?

No one has sketched out a plan of Tesla scaling to 20M vehicles per year:-

• Who quickly can it be done?
• What models in what volumes?
• How many factories?
• Where will they get the raw materials?

Tesla having pondered the list of questions above, and having some answers, would not surprise me...

There is around 60 GWh of battery production currently planned for Europe - close to 2 X GF1.
Chinese battery production is going rapidly... the Europeans scaling up their plans would be no great surprise.

The Chinese are not even waiting for Tesla to fire the starting gun....

I think the transition will be quicker than many expect, but it can also be slower than I expect.
Picking the trend is easy, picking the precise timing is difficult.

The relevant factor at this time is it is hard to imagine a competitor scaling battery volumes, and hence vehicle volumes, faster than Tesla.

I'm very curious about the time line of his in house production. Many speculated that battery production would have been started slightly prior to the original battery day event. But we are 4 months post original date and there are many reports of mega pack and power wall shortages. Seems like Model Y ramp is taking away the added capacity from Panasonic recently so there are no new added capacity from Tesla in house is my guess.

 

[StealthP3D]

This is 43 great minutes.

Rob really shines. He is such a valuable member of the blogging community. After this discussion, Kramer is very glad he added Rob to TheStreet.

My biggest takeaway from that was when Rob mentioned that Jim had previously spoken before about market manipulation and how it's done and asked him to talk a little about that, Jim misunderstood and immediately went into all the short sellers claims of how Tesla bulls manipulate the share price higher using hype. In other words, Jim thinks the "manipulation" story centers around a high stock price, not a low stock price.

Jim's a smart guy but this video brings out just how much he doesn't know about Tesla as well as how much he misunderstands. Rob did a good job of letting Jim speak his mind but I wish he would have educated Jim a little better. Maybe he can talk with Jim off the record and fill him in on some Tesla specifics. For example, I wish he would have explained to Jim why the Cybertruck looks like it does (exoskeleton) and how this makes for a superior truck while simultaneously lowering cost and reducing weight. I wish he had cited the payload and towing figures and mentioned ALL the accessories Cybertruck buyers get as part of the purchase: motorized tonneau cover that you can walk on (and that locks your stuff inside the "vault"), built-in air compressor, fully adjustable ride height front and rear (variable ground clearance for off-roading and ease of loading/unloading), built-in loading ramp strong enough for a battery-electric four-wheeler, and how the cab is roomier for big people than even a Ford Crew cab. He did mention the built-in inverter for mobile power and it looked like that alone blew Jim's mind!

These accessories would cost many thousands of dollars if you had to add them on but they are included with every model version of Cybertruck.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm very curious about the time line of his in house production. Many speculated that battery production would have been started slightly prior to the original battery day event. But we are 4 months post original date and there are many reports of mega pack and power wall shortages. Seems like Model Y ramp is taking away the added capacity from Panasonic recently so there are no new added capacity from Tesla in house is my guess.

IMO the main point of Battery Day is Tesla about being to scale in house battery production quickly.

If we remember the original leak about Tesla having ordered Battery Formation Equipment that was for Fremont, Nevada, Shanghai and Berlin.

Berlin making cells for Model Y production is more or less confirmed...

No process scales instantly, the key is to scale cell production in sync with vehicle production.

I also expect Battery Day to say plenty about Energy Storage Batteries, but again production will not scale instantly.

They are also getting more cells from Panasonic, CATL and LG... fair chance these are long term supply deals...

While (I hope) they can scale quickly, it takes, capital, staff and raw materials to scale... there is no point in scaling too fast, that is worse than being too slow.

 

[FrankSG]

80M / year X 10 years = 800M vehicles total between now and 2030

Like @MP3Mike said, according to Rob the entire automotive industry ex-Tesla plans to produce 80M EVs in aggregate between now and 2030, not per year.

 

[MC3OZ]

Like @MP3Mike said, according to Rob the entire automotive industry ex-Tesla plans to produce 80M EVs in aggregate between now and 2030, not per year.

So they are planning on selling 90% ICE vehicles a lot of that time even if EVs achieve price parity with ICE.
If EVs are available from anyone (including Chinese car makers) for around the same price as ICE, many customers will go with the EV.
Plans change all the time, especially when they need to change.

 

[Artful Dodger]

SHORTSVILLE TIMES:

Not be be outdone in the 'free advertising' department, Rickola Motors (NASDAQ: DICK $4.20 -0.69%) has released this drone video of ongoing construction at their new Terrafactory: (please 'Like' and 'Subscribe', it helps the channel)

"Rickola Factory Construction Site August 19 2020 + DICK Stock Analysis" (13:13)

BREAKING: The Shortsville Times has also received this exclusive footage of Rickola's newest Waste Infrastructure Management Prototype (W.I.M.P.)

Remember to visit our Patreon page to support our C.E.O. cause.

Certainly good times, great fortune, and all they deserve awaits Rickola Corp.

/S

 

[CyberDutchie]

Pierre (TSLA analyst) claims DOJO uses Nvidia chips

View attachment 578411

I agree, project Dojo is a clustered compute architecture for AI training and inferencing, not an in-car processor.

Using A100 for this makes sense: I heard rumors of a recent massive NVIDIA order placed by Tesla. A100 was announced in May and initially available only in NVIDIA’s proprietary DGX system architecture, but now going into production as a board.

A100 delivers 5 petaflops, or about 20x the performance of V100. I do not see Tesla building a competing chip for AI training in such a short time. Whatever chips they develop will be a special-purpose chip for Tesla’s FSD architecture.

 

[Curt Renz]

My bank mailed me a 7% off MSRP coupon for a Maserati. What should I do?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Futures trending down....let's hope it does not drag $TSLA down too much tomorrow....nite y'all!

 

[Artful Dodger]

My bank mailed me a 7% off MSRP coupon for a Maserati. What should I do?

Mail them back a photoshop'd coupon for a Tesla. Ask to cash it.

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

SHORTSVILLE TIMES:

Not be be outdone in the 'free advertising' department, Rickola Motors (NASDAQ: DICK $4.20 -0.69%) has released this drone video of ongoing construction at their new Terrafactory: (please 'Like' and 'Subscribe', it helps the channel)

"Rickola Factory Construction Site August 19 2020 + DICK Stock Analysis" (13:13)

BREAKING: The Shortsville Times has also received this exclusive footage of Rickola's newest Waste Infrastructure Managment Prototype (W.I.M.P.)

Remember to visit our Patreon page to support our C.E.O. cause.

Certainly good times, great fortune, and all they deserve awaits Rickola Corp.

/S

Open to suggestions on how to better our product

 

[hoang51]

My bank mailed me a 7% off MSRP coupon for a Maserati. What should I do?

Buy it and flip it on eBay for profit. /S

 

[dc_h]

Pierre (TSLA analyst) claims DOJO uses Nvidia chips

View attachment 578411

If the Tesla chip is faster, uses less electricity and can run the same native code as Tesla cars, they’re going to use it. If Nvidia was so great, why are they waiting to build Dojo? If Dojo comes after the first v4 chips, it seems rational the v4 chip will be used for Dojo.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Some very quick math around the 80 million other EVs until 2030.

Tesla with Elons 50% growth per year will lead to around 20 million Tesla vehicles made in 2030. Something like 55 million from now until 2030. If Tesla has a 40% market share everyone else will do 30 million in 2030. With a similar curve as Tesla that will be around 80 million from now until 2030.

That's 50 million EVs in 2030. With a total carmarket of 80 million that would give EVs a 62% market share. Going to 70-80-90% in the next couple of years after that.

Seems totally plausible to me.