Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I watched the Jim Cramer Rob Mauer interview last night. I think it served a couple of very useful purposes. First, it got Rob exposure to Jim's very large audience of followers, since Cramer featured the interview on his website. This means that many more people will understand how little almost all of the analysts they see and hear on CNBC and other places really know about Tesla and that someone like Rob and a fair number of people on TMC really do know and understand Tesla. The fact that Cramer ended up interviewing Rob was quite the sight to behold. Second, it may move some of Cramer's audience to also include Rob's Tesla Daily podcast in their listening. Great job by Rob.

I watched it too and my take-away is that Rob schooled Jim on a number of key subjects, plus elements from his bull thesis. Jim came away impressed, dramatically more educated on Tesla, and a more bullish, but this time with a rational floor underneath it, rather than just "lots of friends have Teslas and I was told they could raise $2b in a click of the fingers".

I know Jim isn't appreciated by everyone, but he's influential to the CNBC crowd and having him on our side is a huge positive.

 

[Tslynk67]

Options strikes with better returns, higher leverage?

This might not be the best forum to ask this question.
However, I believe many here might have a good answer to this.

It appears many go for "lottos" through strikes furthest OTM. @Lycanthrope ?
I believe that's for high leverage.
Anyhow, whether anyone here does that or not, I have been doing this

I was of the view that for a given expiry date, theoretically the leverage is higher for higher strike contracts.
Leverage is ratio of contract-price-percent-change / share-price-percent-change.

Let's take options expiring in September-2021, strikes 2000 and 2400.
The contract prices of each of these compared to their prices the previous day should've grown unevenly. 2400 should have grown at a higher %.
However, I noticed that the contract price for strike $2000 had higher returns than for the contract price of 2400.
Today, 08/20, 2000 strike grew by ~16%, 2400 strike grew by 13.3%.

One explanation I can think of is the % change on the brokerage page likely is comparison between the last sold price at yesterday's close with last sold price at today's close.
I plan to track the bid/ask at closing time for a few days and see if this is the case. Assess the % changes through mid point at closing time.

Do mid-point (bid/ask) price changes not follow this lower/higher leverage pattern? That is, mid-point for 2700 strike not expected to grow faster in % points, than that of 2000 strike?

I keep getting pinged on options trading, probably just because I talk about my trades a bit, but it's easy to make tons of money on options when the stock price rises 10% every other day. So I think my success is mostly down to luck, there's no method other than picking what I think feels right.

The only scenario where I would strongly recommend LEAPS, would be when we get massive dips and crushed IV. So the post 19Q1 situation, the C19 dip, this is the time to load on the farthest-out LEAPS you can buy, preferable those at a strike close to previous ATH. I prefer my LEAPS to go DITM, far less risk over time.

I rarely buy lottery weeklies, mainly because I've lost my premium 9/10 times. Exceptions to this can be weeks like we have now - I'm thinking to get a few $2100 strikes for this, next, weeks after - will see how the premiums look when we open, might be too expensive. I've $40k cash sitting there doing nothing from the 4/9 c1500 I sold yesterday morning, thinking we were getting a pull-back - still it was 2x the money from when I bought last Friday for $20k, and that was from 2x 14/8 c1545, which cost $13.4k and were totally worthless before the split was announced, 10,000% rise after that - imagine if people had bought them fresh on that Tuesday...

So if you're playing cheap lottos, be prepared to lose the premium. If you play with serious money, be prepared for bad sleep, and lose your money.

Like I said, it's easy right now with the run-ups we've had, don't assume this will continue for ever.

 

[Robertj]

Similar to L , I started buying shares at $80 , got sucked to options and lost money for 5 years taking short term options
( less than 6 months)
With little capital left then
In the last 12 months I have played out of the money leaps , buying leaps at lows , converting to shares as we reach
new highs
This has paid off spectacularly, knowledge , timing , luck have come together
Best wishes to all but be careful ,

 

[charlesgres]

Options strikes with better returns, higher leverage?

This might not be the best forum to ask this question.
However, I believe many here might have a good answer to this.

It appears many go for "lottos" through strikes furthest OTM. @Lycanthrope ?
I believe that's for high leverage.
Anyhow, whether anyone here does that or not, I have been doing this

I was of the view that for a given expiry date, theoretically the leverage is higher for higher strike contracts.
Leverage is ratio of contract-price-percent-change / share-price-percent-change.

Let's take options expiring in September-2021, strikes 2000 and 2400.
The contract prices of each of these compared to their prices the previous day should've grown unevenly. 2400 should have grown at a higher %.
However, I noticed that the contract price for strike $2000 had higher returns than for the contract price of 2400.
Today, 08/20, 2000 strike grew by ~16%, 2400 strike grew by 13.3%.

One explanation I can think of is the % change on the brokerage page likely is comparison between the last sold price at yesterday's close with last sold price at today's close.
I plan to track the bid/ask at closing time for a few days and see if this is the case. Assess the % changes through mid point at closing time.

Do mid-point (bid/ask) price changes not follow this lower/higher leverage pattern? That is, mid-point for 2700 strike not expected to grow faster in % points, than that of 2000 strike?

That's my strategy as well.. I buy the higher strikes for a higher leverage (because they are cheaper and so the delta gain is percentually higher), and when the SP approaches the strike price, I roll up to a higher strike, and when expiry approaches I roll up and out to avoid the theta decay..

If you buy a leap ITM that you hold for a long time, the percentual gain can be visibly very high, but the gain can be much higher with continuously rolling up OTM's.. it's just a lot less visible in your portfolio items..

I prefer OTM's 9 months out.. shorter expiries are riskier, longer expiries have less leverage..

Edit: strategy works (so far) for stocks you are sure of that will go up in value significantly over said period, like TSLA or AAPL.. May not work for other stocks..

 

[Thekiwi]

remember a week ago when many thought Tesla being setup to be $420 post split was a joke?

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Is there any logical basis for TSLA >$2000?

Yes.

Allow me to be blunt: You need to study Tesla more.

If you don't understand why it's over $2k, it's because you need the imagination AND knowledge to understand that the "machine that builds the machine" is quickly coming to fruition, far faster than most thought possible:

Sparks, NV, is expanding (again)
GF China, #2, is almost done
GF Austin
GF Berlin
Tesla Solar is growing, a sleeping giant
Megapacks
FSD/Robotaxi
etc., etc., etc.

. . . and early next year we'll see the US's greatest presidential liar, cheat, scammer, and moron (AGW "is a Chinese hoax") out of office. That one step alone will see Tesla's fortunes expand amazingly as the Federal Tax Credit is fixed to STOP penalizing the first movers in the EV space, such as Tesla.

Good to see what ARK Invest thinks too, this from Jan, 2020; well worth your time to read, twice even:

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

 

[engle]

The way USA pre-market is going, we may open >= $2,100 today: (Of course, that would *only* be a 5% gain overnight)

Fully agree with @TSLA Pilot, the company is executing on all batteries now! (Doesn't sound as good as "cylinders" is there a better metaphor for BEVs?)

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Does this apply to your wife as well? j/k....good advice...i highly recommend this as well.

Hate to say this, but . . . yes. YES: KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT.

Learn from our experience.

We loaned about $40k to buy my wife's sister her Model 3 last year. Payments have come, BUT they've been less than "like clockwork" despite a signed and very formal loan agreement. This is awkward so I've not brought it up with my wife.

Now that we're at a massive sum of PAPER gains on TSLA, what do you think the odds are that I'll have much leverage on getting those payments back on the agreed-upon schedule?

Those odds would decrease even further if the full extent of our gains was known within the family. So, YES, IMHO it is far, far better to keep your pie hole shut when it comes to TSLA investments. Nothing good will come of it.

Nothing.

 

[MartinAustin]

I watched it too and my take-away is that Rob schooled Jim on a number of key subjects, plus elements from his bull thesis. Jim came away impressed, dramatically more educated on Tesla, and a more bullish, but this time with a rational floor underneath it, rather than just "lots of friends have Teslas and I was told they could raise $2b in a click of the fingers".

I know Jim isn't appreciated by everyone, but he's influential to the CNBC crowd and having him on our side is a huge positive.

I'm just relieved that one of the mainstream media has connected in a solid and respectful way with someone from "our side' that actually studies Tesla, speaks the language of investment analysis, and has solid information on any Tesla component subject. And it's on Youtube. So we can easily forward the link to connect Jim Cramer's discussion and begin to force doubters away from their positions. Also we can say "get this guy on your show if you really want to discuss Tesla - look how much Jim Cramer learned" etc.

We have been badly in need of this in the past. Mainstream media has been dominated by the positions of the powerful- other automakers, oil, Chanos etc. We've had "glancing blows" with people like Gali Russell. This seems more like a foundation that can be built upon.

(In other words, nicely done Rob )

 

[Thekiwi]

Yes.

Allow me to be blunt: You need to study Tesla more.

If you don't understand why it's over $2k, it's because you need the imagination AND knowledge to understand that the "machine that builds the machine" is quickly coming to fruition, far faster than most thought possible:

Sparks, NV, is expanding (again)
GF China, #2, is almost done
GF Austin
GF Berlin
Tesla Solar is growing, a sleeping giant
Megapacks
FSD/Robotaxi
etc., etc., etc.

. . . and early next year we'll see the US's greatest presidential liar, cheat, scammer, and moron (AGW "is a Chinese hoax") out of office. That one step alone will see Tesla's fortunes expand amazingly as the Federal Tax Credit is fixed to STOP penalizing the first movers in the EV space, such as Tesla.

Good to see what ARK Invest thinks too, this from Jan, 2020; well worth your time to read, twice even:

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

The ARK piece you link to is for 2024 price targets for when Tesla is far further down the track of ramping production and FSD capability (or not) eventuates - Tesla has already crossed the lower 4 of the 10 2024 price target scenarios listed by ARK, most of the much higher stock price scenarios assumes Tesla will achieve autonomy and regulators allow Tesla to launch an autonomous network by 2024 (two things that I would love to see happen, but are not in anyway certain - especially by 2024).

I think its fair for TSLA bulls to ask whether Tesla fundamentals support the current share price. It is perfectly reasonable for one to consider whether the stock price has overshot on valuation in the short term, while still remaining invested due to it being a worthy long term investment.

 

[hobbes]

I am watching the lakers beat the Blazers. An e-tron commercial just had a kid sitting in the backseat as mommy turned on the car. And the kid looked like they were in the SpaceX Dragon...coincidence?
2019 Audi e-tron TV Commercial, 'The Next Frontier of Electric' [T1]
Not their first etron astronaut commercial

Likely inspired by Tesla fan ad:

Edit: @stef beat me to it.

 

[Tslynk67]

So, will the Market Monkeys walk the SP down before the opening of main pre-market...?

 

[HG Wells]

So, will the Market Monkeys walk the SP down before the opening of main pre-market...?

I should hope so.
How else am I going to buy MORE !

 

[Christine69420]

Fully agree with @TSLA Pilot, the company is executing on all batteries now! (Doesn't sound as good as "cylinders" is there a better metaphor for BEVs?)

The TSLA stock is supercharging!

 

[avoigt]

I'm just relieved that one of the mainstream media has connected in a solid and respectful way with someone from "our side' that actually studies Tesla, speaks the language of investment analysis, and has solid information on any Tesla component subject. And it's on Youtube. So we can easily forward the link to connect Jim Cramer's discussion and begin to force doubters away from their positions. Also we can say "get this guy on your show if you really want to discuss Tesla - look how much Jim Cramer learned" etc.

We have been badly in need of this in the past. Mainstream media has been dominated by the positions of the powerful- other automakers, oil, Chanos etc. We've had "glancing blows" with people like Gali Russell. This seems more like a foundation that can be built upon.

(In other words, nicely done Rob )

I fully agree and despite Rob was uncertain at first how his engagement with "The Street" will be received we should be happy for everyone with fact-based analysis who makes it into the mainstream media because it's urgently needed.

Congrats for that great interview Rob ! , I really enjoyed listening to Jim Cramer talking himself about a hologram and simulation

I criticized him many times before until finally, his female family members told him how completely wrong he is about Tesla. Everybody can be wrong and Jim was for years a loud negative voice.

It's interesting though that he did not listen to any analysts but his wife and daughter. I applaud him for changing opinions but not for his reasoning. The interview and previous statements showed me again how poorly he did his research in the past. However, happy to have him on the right side now.

While it may feel like the naysayer, Fudsters and Shorts are silenced. Don't be mistaken it's just for now as the SP appreciation went over them like a fast train and they struggle to keep pace but they will be back.

As a matter of fact there are many great YouTuber, writers, and twitter accounts out there who talk the truth but are not really heard.

One reason why I turned most of my time to twitter, CleanTechnica, and others was to begin my fight with all the negative elements who don't know facts and spread misinformation. Twitter is a cave full of snakes and you need to have a thick skin for working in there but Karen, as well as FactChecking went there too which is appreciated.

This forum is where everything started and I will remain forever grateful for all that I learned here from people much smarter than me.

 

[jerry33]

FWIW I keep CNBC on in the background while I work and trade. I truly don’t see Jim turning back anytime soon.

I assume that's so you can do the opposite of what they are saying.

 

[Singuy]

I watched it too and my take-away is that Rob schooled Jim on a number of key subjects, plus elements from his bull thesis. Jim came away impressed, dramatically more educated on Tesla, and a more bullish, but this time with a rational floor underneath it, rather than just "lots of friends have Teslas and I was told they could raise $2b in a click of the fingers".

I know Jim isn't appreciated by everyone, but he's influential to the CNBC crowd and having him on our side is a huge positive.

My take away is that Cramer learned more about Tesla than perhaps any other company in those 45mins. Love him or hate him, I have no clue how he give advice to telephone callers on the thousands of tickers in the market. He knows a little bit of something about everything which is pretty amazing. So to fit this much Tesla info into his head is pretty amazing.

People need to understand that we spend hours a day on Tesla. The cnbc folks cannot because there's not enough time in the world to do that much deep diving. So the good news is that as Tesla climb, it has a positive feed back loop as it becomes a darling of theirs because the sheer number of people who buys in don't want to hear FUD from them as negative reports will just turn half of Americans off, if half of Americans now own TSLA.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Everybody I know is texting me to sell

Nobody buys but they all recommend to sell

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I fully agree and despite Rob was uncertain at first how his engagement with "The Street" will be received we should be happy for everyone with fact-based analysis who makes it into the mainstream media because it's urgently needed.

Congrats for that great interview Rob ! , I really enjoyed listening to Jim Cramer talking himself about a hologram and simulation

I criticized him many times before until finally, his female family members told him how completely wrong he is about Tesla. Everybody can be wrong and Jim was for years a loud negative voice.

It's interesting though that he did not listen to any analysts but his wife and daughter. I applaud him for changing opinions but not for his reasoning. The interview and previous statements showed me again how poorly he did his research in the past. However, happy to have him on the right side now.

While it may feel like the naysayer, Fudsters and Shorts are silenced. Don't be mistaken it's just for now as the SP appreciation went over them like a fast train and they struggle to keep pace but they will be back.

As a matter of fact there are many great YouTuber, writers, and twitter accounts out there who talk the truth but are not really heard.

One reason why I turned most of my time to twitter, CleanTechnica, and others was to begin my fight with all the negative elements who don't know facts and spread misinformation. Twitter is a cave full of snakes and you need to have a thick skin for working in there but Karen, as well as FactChecking went there too which is appreciated.

This forum is where everything started and I will remain forever grateful for all that I learned here from people much smarter than me.

100% concur re: Cramer. Scary that he's still so "off" on Tesla; his interview with Rob demonstrates that the knowledge of a retail investor can now be so much better than what's held by the "experts."

As for Karen and FackChecking: A massive loss for this forum that they were run off. Depressing really, to see such idiocy by heavy-handed mods.

 

[Boomer19]

"If any Propagandist, Bob Lutz or that Bonehead makes a call on TSLA Batteries..."

whos "that Bonehead"? : )