Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

The standard range is 220
The standard range plus is 240
The mid range is 264

Is the 220 a software limited 240 or is the 240 a software limited mid range ?

I'm betting neither, and here's my bet. This is speculation.

1 - The new Grohmann pack machine is working.
2 - It can be programmed to put any number of "blanks" into the same pack case, thus giving packs with fewer cells in a very customizable fashion.

 

[neroden]

I personally know one such fool who bought a bolt in December. I spent 2 hours explaining and convincing even begging at times for him to reconsider- he didn’t need a car immediately and shouldn’t settle for the Bolt. Tesla was so far superior it was worth waiting for if he didn’t want to go for LR which was available immediately in Dec with full rebates! But nope, it was the Fool’s Birthday and he was gonna get himself a new car, which was the BOLT

I will say, the Bolt seats are very comfortable. Model 3 seats have changed, like, 4 times already, but I really disliked the first iteration.

 

[neroden]

Sunken costs fallacy. Elon understands this very well: he jettisons a lot of work he's done on things all the time. (Remember to look at SpaceX for some more examples.)

Actually one of the things which makes Musk an exceptionally good exec. I noticed this early: he will change direction *really fast* compared to most CEOs.

 

[S3XY]

I know my service center could use more Tesla loaners. Maybe will come back as just another loaner which they can use anyways.

Service center? What's that?

 

[phil0909]

Going through every last one of the day's posts, I've noticed only one poster (sorry - don't remember your handle) who mentioned insurance as one of the hurdles to overcome in purchasing a car. That will entail one more sticking point for anyone thinking of borrowing a car for 1,000 miles with "only" a $35,000 or so fully refundable downpayment. Plus registration. Plus. Plus. Plus. And you wouldn't be able to protect-wrap it and expect to get that back. And don't think you'd get away without having to cough up for that little rock ding here or scrape there.

By the way, after two months of this thread, we now are at a run rate of having 117,000 posts this year.

C'mon, Fremont! You can beat that!!!!!

That seems like too many posts...

 

[neroden]

Am I the only one who sees a mountain of slightly used Model 3's from people with no intention of keeping the car?

Tesla badly needs a Chief Risk Officer, and I volunteer.

They should have the following restriction:
-- if you return your model 3 in the 7 day/1000 mile period, you have two options:
---- get a replacement model 3 (used if you consider yours to be defective / a lemon, or turn out to hate the color)
---- get cash back.

...but if you get cash, you should not be allowed to order another Model 3 for a year. I think that would deter "joyriders".

 

[kyzhk]

Potentially stock boosting from unlocking the SR variant model 3 + coming soon model Y:

Wouldn't it be fun if delivery estimate for model 3 gets pushed out for 2 years based on current production rate indicating very strong demand. You cannot get more recession proof than that.

Another point:
we've been comparing Tesla to Apple on how they both created a new massive market for itself and how much owner loves the product. Now that Tesla is switching to online only sales like how it all started with Amazon, perhaps we will start seeing people equating Tesla = Apple + Amazon.

 

[dc_h]

That seems like too many posts...

I skipped 100 pages. Apparently was busy today.

Will we hit 1000 pages before opening tomorrow?

 

[neroden]

I'm curious if the bears would intentionally orchestrate a scene where they bought a lot of cars and returned them in an effort to destroy the company. I don't think unlimited returns on cars is a good idea when there are so many malicious actors out there.

There are only so many bears, so if you only allow each one to return a car once per year, I think you would control the problem.

 

[Curt Renz]

The second would seem to violate the interstate commerce clause...

It certainly would. But to put teeth in it, Congress needs to pass a law denying a state the right to force a manufacturer that has never had local franchised dealerships to get some if they are going to sell in that state. Then the federal law would override the state laws. Without help from Congress, the Constitution's Interstate Commerce Clause becomes difficult to enforce. As I have in this matter, write those who represent you in Congress.

 

[neroden]

Semi-OT:

The way you buy cars has changed. Time to get used to it. People said the same of book sales.

FWIW, it took ABEBooks (which lists edition and condition, in detail) to really move book sales online. I don't buy collectible books through Amazon.com. So there are always subtleties in figuring out how to move this stuff online. Tesla has *not* got the kinks worked out yet, particularly for used car sales.

 

[RobStark]

This guy is sad.

Yesterday, this guy priced matched Tesla's Model 3 value proposition on the car itself.

Today, he is 10% too expensive and he is still 1 year away from Job 1.

 

[anthonyj]

Latest announcement is giving bears a lot to chew on. They are calling it a prepackaged bankruptcy due to the mass layoffs and store closures. A liquidation sale of cars. To the less informed investor this sounds scary to think about. My thinking is we stay in this $250-380 range until Model Y starts rolling off the lines

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT

So you were neighbors?

Yup, went to the same school (hard knox).

Cheers!

 

[neroden]

This makes the 360-400k 2019 total deliveries guidance in the shareholder letter look a bit ridiculous. Not even an overlap with this new 420-600k production suggestion. I presume and hope the guidance on this media call today has been approved by the Tesla comms team, though it doesn't necessarily contradict what was said on the Q4 call.

This implies that they think they can relieve a bottleneck at Fremont. Fremont appeared to be stuck at 7K/week. With Shanghai producing 3K/week starting in September (optimistic), that would only get to 400K Model 3s.

We know they just relieved a big bottleneck at the Gigafactory, but they must also have a plan for getting Fremont over 7K/week Model 3s if they're talking 350K-500K Model 3s in 2019.

420k Model 3s would be equivalent to c.8k cars per week for 9M19, followed by c.11k per week in Q4 with GF3 ramping immediately to capacity from September, all with 1 week downtime per quarter. I think getting to 500k Model 3s would likely require more significant capex in Fremont.

Indeed, or at least some breakthrough.

 

[TNEVol]

The way you buy cars has changed. Time to get used to it. People said the same of book sales.

I bought a used Volt (bridge to 3) and a P/U through Carvana without a test drive with exactly the same 7 day no cost return and they were the best cars and purchase experience other than Tesla I ever had.

 

[neroden]

I don’t believe that will be a big issue. It takes a lot of time and effort to put together the money for a car - loans down payments credit checks etc - not something that people would do frivolously.

ExxonMobil could do it every day for a year without blinking. There really has to be a restriction preventing the same rich person from doing it repeatedly. There probably will be.

 

[dc_h]

Potentially stock boosting from unlocking the SR variant model 3 + coming soon model Y:

Wouldn't it be fun if delivery estimate for model 3 gets pushed out for 2 years based on current production rate indicating very strong demand. You cannot get more recession proof than that.

Another point:
we've been comparing Tesla to Apple on how they both created a new massive market for itself and how much owner loves the product. Now that Tesla is switching to online only sales like how it all started with Amazon, perhaps we will start seeing people equating Tesla = Apple + Amazon.

I don’t know how tomorrow plays out, but I think Tesla is way more aggressive than Apple ever was. Apple invented a market and was satisfied with being a close follower. Tesla will not be a close follower. They will pour it all into continuous productivity and innovation.

 

[neroden]

So, is there anything more to "accredited investor" than this?:
Personal net worth >$1M
or
Income > $200K in each of last 2 years or joint income >$300K
or
Trust with assets> $5M

Nope! That's it! (Unless you're an organization like a corporation or charity, they have their own rules)

Oh, your primary residence doesn't count towards net worth for this purpose.

I'm still concerned that the SEC thing might lead him to go private very soon. Consequences for many here if that happens. (yeah, I'm personally in above club but I prefer everyone here who've been riding this rollercoaster be able to continue).

 

[neroden]

Liquidity will prevent abuse of the scheme. Few disingenuous people have $35K sitting around.

There are enough. *Cough* Donald Trump *Cough*