Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

Latest announcement is giving bears a lot to chew on. They are calling it a prepackaged bankruptcy due to the mass layoffs and store closures. A liquidation sale of cars. To the less informed investor this sounds scary to think about. My thinking is we stay in this $250-380 range until Model Y starts rolling off the lines

I think when Tesla shows a healthy margin on the mix of model 3 with sugar load of orders in two quarters we should be above 400.

 

[mblakele]

I've skipped a lot of the pages because I just can't keep up. But what I have read only talks about buying autos from Tesla online instead of in a store. What effect will closing most stores have on Tesla Energy consumer sales? Will that just be centralized and people will deal with an anonymous salesman via email or phone in Reno or someplace in California?

Why can't that go online too? IMO what the stores and phone banks do isn't really sales anyway: closer to lead generation. The sales part happens when a rep comes to your home to take measurements and generate a design. No stores needed for that part either.

Source: my (non-Tesla) rooftop solar was done without any kind of visit to a store.

 

[neroden]

Very surprised to see standard range unveiled today. Thought for sure we’d be waiting until summer.

It is good news, isn't it?

At this moment, I do not believe they will be able to break even on the lowest end model, but that isn’t terribly important yet. They likely have a path of getting there sometime in the future.

If I were forced to guess, I'd guess the marginal production cost of the base SR is $34,500 right now.

I think SR+ will be close to breakeven very soon.

And I'd guess it's got $1000 of extra profit in it above the SR (assuming no options).

These are wild guesses, and rather on the pessimistic side. But I think that's the absolute minimum it would take for Musk and the board to have greenlight the SR at this point.

 

[neroden]

Someone on reddit noticed that the SR and MR models has the same exact weight according to the spec. Perhaps they are the same car. This plays more to the theory that SR and SR+ are software limited MRs.

Maybe. Although I think they're just being sloppy. I would expect them to be the same pack with dummy cells, which would probably come out very close to the same weight, and perhaps they didn't reweigh it.

 

[Ulmo]

Who needs Turo to rent a Tesla? I can get a free one week, 1,000 mile "rental" directly from Tesla.

 

[AcesDealt]

I'm generally pretty aggravated with how dour and anti business the press is but I hope they can set aside their revolutionary ambitions and get out the message that a 35k$ model 3 before incentives is a fantastical deal.. a gift from the bourgeois shareholders one might even say. Any model 3 in that 40 to 45k$ vicinity in particular really is an excellent compare against anything.

Reference please?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Still wondering why there's no transcript of this media call at the very least. It's hard to rely on CNBC to give you fair coverage

If the share price does something wild like it did the day after the SEC, then I'm going full conspiracy and thinking some other stuff was said on the call. I mean if you look online through the typical media, no one is reporting about the updated guidance Elon gave for production/deliveries for 2019. Makes me wonder what other things were said that the media isn't reporting.

Also like you guys have said, I really hope Tesla has thought the return policy through and has a system in place where if someone does it once, they are unable to place another order for a year or two.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Not available anymore. You want a test drive? Buy a car and then have 7 days to return it if you don’t like it.

Many who are not early EV adopters won't want to buy before they test drive (or even get to sit in the car). However, what is even better than a Tesla rep test drive is a test drive from a friend or family member. The sheer number of M3s being delivered each month means those wanting a test drive prior to purchase will easily find a friend or acquaintance delighted to show all the features and give that test drive. This effect also grows future demand with those not yet able to buy just yet. There is nothing better than a test drive of M3 to motivate potential buyers to work the math and (gasp) maybe even take TCO into account.

 

[anthonyj]

I think when Tesla shows a healthy margin on the mix of model 3 with sugar load of orders in two quarters we should be above 400.

Quadruple contempt of court by the SEC would get us above $400 much faster and reliably tbh

 

[neroden]

Elon says the pricing is not going to drop

View attachment 381709

Frankly, the $35K promise turned out to be a moving target due to inflation. I think Tesla will raise prices with inflation as soon as they can credibly get away with it (i.e. after all reservation holders have gotten their chance to buy the $35K car).

 

[neroden]

Tesla Direct Sales Map (US)

This is the Map maintained by TMC Staff.

Has something changed since Aug 19,2018.

Or is Tesla just servicing cars until they get arrested?

I believe the rules are technically about operating a car repair shop. So if they operate a car repair shop in Toledo which happens to send repairmen across the border to Michigan, the rules do not apply.

 

[Steve m]

My WAG is that the battery packs contain the same number of cells, but the 220 mile version has cells that aren’t 100% to spec. There are manufacturing variances and during the cell testing process, they find cells that are lower spec. Tesla already does this for motors.

This reminds me of a story of where a US electronics manufacturor ordered a large number of resisters where they stated 95% of the resistors had to be within 1% of the stated value.

The Japanese manufacturor then delivered two packs of resistors. Those that were in tollerence and those that weren't.

They also asked the US company why they wanted out of tollerence parts?

 

[neroden]

from Popular Mechanics: "The Shelburne Police Department tells Popular Mechanics that the owner of the vehicle took their Tesla onto the ice to go fishing, and that at some point during the expedition the car hit a rock. The car started making unusual noises, and shortly after that caught fire. No one was hurt."

Seriously, he drove the Tesla onto the ice to go fishing. Oh my god. OK.

 

[TNEVol]

You seem to know your stuff. Can you help us with an amicus brief to the court? This situation is bizarre and I think the Court should be told what's really going on. I figure even if the judge refulses to take the amicus brief it'll wake her up...

I would love to help and I am also admitted in the DC Circuit Court of Appeals and we could discuss maybe in a separate thread but two problems are 1. I am retired and in TN so we would need someone local as well but the bigger problem is the issue before the court. I could see an Amicus on the first case before settlement but the contempt is usually focused not on the SEC's authority or enforcement action but instead on whether Elon violated the agreement. It is not obvious to me how an Amicus could help the court determine whether the tweet was one that should have been preapproved. The problem is that the issue is did he violate his agreement. Maybe some public policy argument and harm to us (long retail investors) could be made but I would like to discuss that strategy and the relevance outside of the forum. I would be willing to do so. There are others here that would need to help.

 

[EVNow]

Latest announcement is giving bears a lot to chew on. They are calling it a prepackaged bankruptcy due to the mass layoffs and store closures. A liquidation sale of cars. To the less informed investor this sounds scary to think about. My thinking is we stay in this $250-380 range until Model Y starts rolling off the lines

I’m fine with that. Can you get the SP to 380 soon ?

 

[neroden]

At the current pricing of the Model 3, the Bolt is on life support. The downward spiral begins. They keep losing money on the Bolt because they can't scale production up enough to utilize economy of scale due to poor sale figures, which will continue to make this car a money loser.

This goes for any new upcoming EVs. Tesla's advantage cannot be understated.

Yeah, I think the only companies doing comparable scaling are BYD and BAIC. Full stop. Not even SAIC.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That was the euphemism eventually used by the industry. Actually, it was more often called a stick shift.

Feeling old now. All those terms were common language when I grew up. Standard, Stick... besides, what kid wanted an automatic anyway?

Meanwhile, I thought SR was Short Range, but that would be just stupid marketing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Dang, now that's what I call a blog post! Elon does NOT disappoint.

"So you won't let us open a store in your State?" Well F-Y-A! We'll close all stores everywhere, and sell online only.

Only the inventor of PayPal could act so boldly. And with a net 6% cost savings.

Well played Sir, well played.

Cheers!

 

[AcesDealt]

Frankly, the $35K promise turned out to be a moving target due to inflation. I think Tesla will raise prices with inflation as soon as they can credibly get away with it (i.e. after all reservation holders have gotten their chance to buy the $35K car).

I think that's quite possible and an important thing to keep in mind. My expectation prior, typically unpopular, was that they would stop at 38k$ or so but figure out how to exhaust the 35k$ reservation line as is only fair. Perhaps this methodology of going about it is more palatable since it demonstrates first they can saturate 7k demand levels. The key indicator would be that waiting time increases.

I think their talk about 350k+ 2019 production is a bit of a bluster, possibly even a cover up. They are not going to spend that cap ex if the excess demand is at the bottom price and that is where it would be.

 

[BBone]

Service center? What's that?

I was going to say "ouch" . But I think I read a hidden meaning in your reply. Guessing since we're almost neighbours (Buffalo<-> TO) that you come up to Oakville, ON for your "SC"? I didn't see another one close by.