Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

ExxonMobil could do it every day for a year without blinking. There really has to be a restriction preventing the same rich person from doing it repeatedly. There probably will be.

Probably won’t be allowed for companies.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Speaking of which, how does one do a trade-in now?

I will try to remember to post an update on this assuming i do a trade-in.

Very surprised to see standard range unveiled today. Thought for sure we’d be waiting until summer.

At this moment, I do not believe they will be able to break even on the lowest end model, but that isn’t terribly important yet. They likely have a path of getting there sometime in the future.

i have never skipped so many posts as i did after elon said there would be tesla news today. 35k model 3 was the first thing that came to my mind when he said there would be news after trading hours. some suggested it would be an announcement about paying of debt...really???

not to pat myself on the back, but 35k really was my first guess. but i also thought model y reveal, fsd, or s/x refresh sounded reasonable. maybe i just got lucky (but have not yet profited from this luck, according to AH trading...)

Elon did say high foot traffic stores would remain as galleries. I guess that means popular malls.

I wonder what this means for solar sales strategy

My guess is it ends up being sort of about the six and one-half [Inaudible] where if there's a given amount of free cash flow, you sort of decide-you decide to achieve that with a smaller production or smaller volume of cars or at a higher margin or large volume cars at a smaller margin. I think we're already toward the second. We'd rather make more cars at a lower margin, but I think it's more or less a flat rate.

I will pay $43k for a $35k car. $8k in software. certainly not all of that $8k is profit, but it's not far. Some of the more insightful posts i have seen have been saying to assume tesla sells model 3s at cost of hardware. Then what happens for profits from software sales alone?

Prediction : German automakers for the most part will only try to compete against S&X. With lower volumes, they may be able to do so with small losses. But they will have no answer to 3 for many years to come. Same for Y.

I'm mentally marking this as the the top prediction for competition for next few years. This makes sense.

Actually one of the things which makes Musk an exceptionally good exec. I noticed this early: he will change direction *really fast* compared to most CEOs.

With a constantly changing signal (demand, advances in tech, etc.) it's strange that others don't change as fast as Elon. Strongly agree with your statement.

 

[neroden]

I would love to help and I am also admitted in the DC Circuit Court of Appeals and we could discuss maybe in a separate thread but two problems are 1. I am retired and in TN so we would need someone local as well but the bigger problem is the issue before the court. I could see an Amicus on the first case before settlement but the contempt is usually focused not on the SEC's authority or enforcement action but instead on whether Elon violated the agreement. It is not obvious to me how an Amicus could help the court determine whether the tweet was one that should have been preapproved.

The amicus would be regarding the issues of materiality and accuracy. As investors, we believe:
(1) the 500k tweet was not material
(2) the tweet was not inaccurate
(3) the tweet was a reiteration of previously stated material
(4) the tweet did not cause market movements, nor was it plausible for it to do so

These are factual questions which determine, under the agreement, whether it should have been pre-approved. As professional investors, we perhaps have some insight into these factual questions.

With S + X + 3, I had already calculated that Tesla was going to make "around 500K cars", and in the context of "from 0 to", it was clear to me that this was just talking about progress since the first Roadster, in general terms.

The "color" in the brief would merely be raising the question that we, as investors, have seen trades based on early access to inside information (Consumer Reports) -- clearly material; and dissemination of trade libels for the apparent purposes of stock manipulation (Larry Fossi) -- actions which moved the stock price -- and we wonder why the SEC is focusing on something which we, as investors, do not even consider to be material, and which did not move the stock price, while ignoring matters which appear to be use of material non-public information, or deliberate spreading of disinformation, which did move the stock price. This seems like it is not in accordance with the public policy goals of the SEC.

We could state that we find it bizarre and unhelpful to the functioning of the markets for Musk to be found in contempt of court for a non-material, non-news statement while simultaneously market-moving uses of inside information and fraudulent statements -- which we have reported -- are being ignored. We understand that the SEC has limited funds and work hours, but are confused by the SEC ignoring large, obvious market manipulation in the *same* stock while spending staff time on something which doesn't seem to be material at all.

The problem is that the issue is did he violate his agreement. Maybe some public policy argument and harm to us (long retail investors) could be made but I would like to discuss that strategy and the relevance outside of the forum. I would be willing to do so. There are others here that would need to help.

Thanks. You can PM me. I am very much not a lawyer, but I'll try to be helpful.

 

[EVNow]

Frankly, the $35K promise turned out to be a moving target due to inflation. I think Tesla will raise prices with inflation as soon as they can credibly get away with it (i.e. after all reservation holders have gotten their chance to buy the $35K car).

Depends. It’s possible they won’t increase the price, though after the tax credit phase out, the price will effectively go up.

If what is promised by Maxwell is true, they may not need to increase price after all.

 

[scaesare]

I will say, the Bolt seats are very comfortable.

That is far from unanimous.

 

[Zaxxon]

ExxonMobil could do it every day for a year without blinking. There really has to be a restriction preventing the same rich person from doing it repeatedly. There probably will be.

It's already mostly handled for individuals:

Note that the standard window is one day, and the 7-day window is valid only if you have never test-driven a Tesla. It's a one-time offer for the lifetime of that person. Also, if you tried getting insurance, then dropping it after a day, repeatedly. Well, your carrier would drop you pretty quick-like.

Probably won’t be allowed for companies.

I would hope not.

 

[neroden]

Indeed, we are the owners of the company.

I apparently have more shares than several of the Board of Directors (Linda Rice?!?) they certainly should be sharing the conference call with us.

 

[neroden]

Energy likely has no solid plan for customer acquisition.

Oh, it's clear. Take the waiting list for Powerwalls and say "Would you like solar panels with that?" They already tried it with me but I wanted the Solar Roof. (And then I cancelled due to not being allowed by my family to do more home construction for a few years after the last disaster.)

 

[EVNow]

I will say, the Bolt seats are very comfortable. Model 3 seats have changed, like, 4 times already, but I really disliked the first iteration.

You got to be kidding. With Bolt, the biggest compliant was the seat. Apparently there were two types and one was really bad. In fact, if you start searching on google “bolt seats” ... guess what’s the next suggested word

The Front Seats - OUCH! - Chevy Bolt EV Forum

 

[CalX]

Actually [and I'm a Tesla owner and mega-fan], guiding for 350k to 500k production is not the same as "will build 500k". There's a HUGE difference between a range of 350k to 500k and just plain 500k - the range leaves you speculating on production - "will build 500k" does not.

It's been mentioned several times that 350k to 500k was for model 3 only and does not include 80k or more S and X which puts the total production at 430k to 580k for which 500k is reasonably near the middle of that range.

 

[Zaxxon]

I just noticed that the FSD upgrade for my 3 is down to $3k, the same price it would have cost had I added it when I purchased the car. Tempting now that HW3 is about to hit.

Even more tempting to buy it during a quarter where Tesla could use the additional cash...

 

[EVNow]

Tesla badly needs a Chief Risk Officer, and I volunteer.

They should have the following restriction:
-- if you return your model 3 in the 7 day/1000 mile period, you have two options:
---- get a replacement model 3 (used if you consider yours to be defective / a lemon, or turn out to hate the color)
---- get cash back.

...but if you get cash, you should not be allowed to order another Model 3 for a year. I think that would deter "joyriders".

This is like the std rule that any site that allows trial subscription would use.

 

[EVNow]

I just noticed that the FSD upgrade for my 3 is down to $3k, the same price it would have cost had I added it when I purchased the car. Tempting now that HW3 is about to hit.

Even more tempting to buy it during a quarter where Tesla could use the additional cash...

Is AP still the same price ?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Latest announcement is giving bears a lot to chew on. They are calling it a prepackaged bankruptcy due to the mass layoffs and store closures. A liquidation sale of cars. To the less informed investor this sounds scary to think about. My thinking is we stay in this $250-380 range until Model Y starts rolling off the lines

People also say the earth is flat. Just because someone can spout bullshit that sounds plausible to folks that lack critical thinking abilities doesn’t make them correct.

 

[azaz]

I wonder if they start doing conventional advertising now that most stores will be shut down. the stores (especially those in Malls) introduced people to the brand that wouldn't know otherwise. they have to replace that somewhere.

 

[SPadival]

From Dana "don't mention the elephant in the room" Hull's article (which I won't link because the headline did not mention the elephant in the room - the $35k Model 3)

“Given that there was just a lot happening in Q1, and we’re taking a lot of one-time charges and there are a lot of challenges getting cars to China and Europe, we do not expect to be profitable in Q1,” Musk said on a call with reporters. “But we do think that profitability in Q2 is likely.”

The CEO doubled down on his defence against the SEC’s claims by reiterating comments he made on a Jan. 30 earnings call that Tesla would sell as many as 500,000 Model 3s this year.

“350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s is what I said in the earnings call,” Musk told reporters. “And we expect to make somewhere between 70,000 to 100,000” Model S sedans and Model X crossovers.

 

[Zaxxon]

Is AP still the same price ?

I already have EAP, so I can't see the upgrade price. Log into your Tesla account, click Manage on your car, then Autopilot Upgrades.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder if they start doing conventional advertising now that most stores will be shut down. the stores (especially those in Malls) introduced people to the brand that wouldn't know otherwise. they have to replace that somewhere.

No.

 

[Remus]

This reminds me of when Amazon begin to offer $25 limit free shipping. People scream they would lose money and go under.

I guess Tesla went to full Amazon mode, or even more aggressive: use all profit from operation for market expansion.

So not surprisingly shorts renewed their bankwupcy song. And based on Amazon's history the stock price maybe suppressed for long time due to low margin.

But you will never know it will just take off without any notice.

 

[EVNow]

I already have EAP, so I can't see the upgrade price. Log into your Tesla account, click Manage on your car, then Autopilot Upgrades.

Well, $4k.