Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Compact and larger is NOT niche outside North America.

China and South Korea are not France-Italy or Japan. People in China buy tiny cars because they can't afford larger cars.

Best selling doesn't mean Best profits. They actually have very little profit in the segment.

How much profit and oil demand destruction does Tesla accomplish going after Zoe and itty bitty ICEv with efficient itty bitty ICE?

There is more profit and oil demand destruction in the bigger class of cars.

We know Tesla has authorized one vehicle below the Model 3 designed and manufactured in China for the global market. LEAF is one size bigger than ZOE. It would be silly to skip the LEAF class to manufacture ZOE class car in Europe.

Tesla is also opening a design centre in Berlin, rumored to be creating a small European car.
 
"itty bitty" = Mainstream outside North America (and especially in Europe)

"premium compact and larger sales class" = niche (outside North America)

"furthering the mission" = (my prefered interpretation) initially replacing as many ICE urban vehicles as possible (pollution, lifespan, inteligence), later all ICE (climate change) - the more EV cars AND vans Tesla and others can displace, the better.

UK 2019 car sales slip to seven-year low: who's up, who's down?
Out of these, the biggest is probably the Sportage ('compact crossover SUV' according to Wiki) or possibly Kuga (escape in USA/NA?)

UK
"The bestselling cars of 2019 were:

  1. Ford Fiesta 77,833
  2. VW Golf 58,994
  3. Ford Focus 56,619
  4. Vauxhall Corsa 54,239
  5. Mercedes A-Class 53,724
  6. Nissan Qashqai 55,532
  7. Ford Kuga 41,671
  8. Mini hatchback 41,188
  9. VW Polo 37,453
  10. Kia Sportage 34,502
That's exactly the same top 10 as last year, just in a slightly jumbled order. Hats off, in particular, to the strong performances by the Golf and Corsa, both on run-out and due for replacement imminently."

Regionally, car markets seem very diverse. I didn't know many of the cars on this list/slides:- https://www.whatcar.com/news/best-selling-cars-around-the-world

Agree Tesla should start designing cars in the size classes below the Model 3/Y.

It usually takes an OEM about 7 years to go from initial design to volume production of a new car, Tesla can probably do it much quicker, but they are still looking at several years, particularly as the China and Berlin design centres that seem to be tasked with this are only just starting to ramp up themselves. I would look for reveals in 18 months to 2 years and then a short time to production start, that is a delayed reveal to avoid Osborning current models and giving information to competitors.
 
Open interest numbers seem to have changed quite a bit as compared to yesterday. As I look at the option chain on ToS you can see that open interest is well spread out from 2000 to 2500 strikes. I do not see heavy concentration at the 2100 level anymore. I think the MMs did a good job of closing out a number of those open contracts. Are they signaling that they don’t want to bother controlling what happens today? I see something similar for puts OI. Buckle up folks!

The maximum-pain.com website is still showing old data with a heavy concentration at 2100 level. Maybe they have not updated their data. For example ToS is showing OI for 2100 Aug 28 expiry is 6417 where the maximum-pain.com website is showing OI is 23611.
 
How can you compare a hardware company and the universal operating system for PC to *sugar* websites like petrocks.com?

I agree there is an ev stock bubble built on the backs of Tesla's unstoppable valuation increase right now. Overall the tech sector now has lower risk than value dividend paying equities going forward. Remember that fiduciary who claims Tesla is dangerous? What is dangerous for my retirement account is value stocks because these mega corporations like oil, cruise, dining, hospitality and travel will drop 40% the next time a weird bug is announced by the WHO just to front run another potential Covid like black swan while tech prepares another round of record profits. And guess what, these bugs come and go every 3-4 years.

I have several small pension accounts, they should be invested in green/ethical and high growth stocks, however a couple of months ago I got a warning from the pension provider that the value of the pension was at risk due to the fall in commercial property values. Checking my pensions I can't actually see a fall so it was probably a general letter or concerned a small percentage of one of my pensions. UK commercial property has fallen enormously since the COVID-19 lockdown due to tenants refusing to pay rent (taking rent holidays) and the effects of company closures and reduced demand for offices when everyone is working from home. The investment was probably transferred to a "safe" security as I am coming up to the desired retirement age, still it is ironic that a policy designed to protect the pension from volatility can lead to massive falls in the pension value (although it didn't in my case).

I will be taking money out of the pensions over the next few months, as I have realised I can do a better job of investing and won't have any annual fees. Money probably won't be invested in Tesla because I am over exposed, but in green, ethical and biotech, with a HODL policy of at least 5 years.
 
Good start to the 7 AM trading window. I just saw this on the bid side. Yep that’s a 15.7 million USD order. Positioning for next week’s split?

C43CEF2B-09DD-4D8A-94BD-1DB548E18981.jpeg
 
Compact and larger is NOT niche outside North America.

China and South Korea are not France-Italy or Japan. People in China buy tiny cars because they can't afford larger cars.

Best selling doesn't mean Best profits. They actually have very little profit in the segment.

How much profit and oil demand destruction does Tesla accomplish going after Zoe and itty bitty ICEv with efficient itty bitty ICE?

There is more profit and oil demand destruction in the bigger class of cars.

We know Tesla has authorized one vehicle below the Model 3 designed and manufactured in China for the global market. LEAF is one size bigger than ZOE. It would be silly to skip the LEAF class to manufacture ZOE class car in Europe.

you keep arguing this, Rob, whilst completely ignoring us Europeans that consistent tell you that Teslas are too big for a LOT of people, yes, including the Model 3.

A compact Tesla - Ford Fiesta, VW Polo/Golf, size is an absolute necessity for the Mussion.
 
A compact Tesla - Ford Fiesta, VW Polo/Golf, size is an absolute necessity for the Mussion.

Not necessarily.

In Elon's mind, by the time Tesla would scale the manufacture of a compact Tesla vehicle, FSD and Tesla Network should be up and running.

Compact cars don't make sense if there is an active FSD fleet since:
1) customers needing transport but not having the means to buy a Tesla (Model 3 and up) could use Tesla Network for $1/mile. Cheaper than owning and insuring a compact car and you don't need a place to park it (an issue with many people living in apartment buildings or in the city center).

2) A compact car does not seat 5 people and their luggage. I.e. it's preferable that the robotaxi's are of decent size to transport people and their luggage.

3) Eliminating the compact cars owned by the true masses (meaning even greater masses than the 'Model 3 mass') but letting them use FSD would decrease the numbers of cars on the road greatly, reducing congestion/traffic jams.

So given the current technology and philosophy of transportation, I would agree Europe is screaming for a Tesla compact for around €25.000. But if you truly believe in the dawn of FSD within five years (as Elon does), compacts make a lot less sense.
 
I wonder if Tesla use any focus group
Let's hope not. With focus groups you get "all we want is a faster horse" kind of thinking. And remember, there needs to be profit to advance, and larger cars mean more profit. Smaller cars are when you don't need lots of profit to expand the growing business.
 
you keep arguing this, Rob, whilst completely ignoring us Europeans that consistent tell you that Teslas are too big for a LOT of people, yes, including the Model 3.

A compact Tesla - Ford Fiesta, VW Polo/Golf, size is an absolute necessity for the Mussion.
Agree. I live in central London and the 3 is workable but I'd prefer a small crossover/hatchback that was narrower and shorter. Better for parking and more practical than the 3.

As an example of how difficult some Tesla's are in London regarding size, the Model X can't drive across Chelsea Bridge. It's too wide to fit through the barriers.
 
Last edited:
I love your language. Always great to see! (If I would write something using similar constellations of characters, I would have had a few too many of @Lycanthrope 's beers though - I suck in Finnish)

@Causalien - fully agree on your reasoning, I tried to express something similar yesterday. I think for EV stocks it is even more pronounced. So how do you trade a bubble? I mean avoid the fraudsters and fools who don't have a product and no technology etc. that's obvious. But beyond that?
Buy TSLA and HODL perhaps? Have you tried that?
 
The real run starts when we see the new FSD software in a few weeks. The hype will carry it to $1 trillion valuation this year. Why do you think your short shorts are delayed?
I used to think you were being hyperbolic for dramatic effect but this year has taught me that anything is possible.
 
At this point I am hoping that S&P will wait until next ER to add TSLA to S&P500. Let Tesla hold battery day where they will present their next breakthrough in scaling, let them release full FSD(not robotaxi) with higher take rates and they can recognize all deferred revenue, Q3 numbers will be off the charts due to Shanghai margins and Y margins being much better than expected. Who knows, by then TSLA might be >$1T...

Current market caps:
1/ AAPL $2,138B
2/ MSFT $1,714B
3/ AMZN $1,703B
4/ GOOGL $1,100B
5/ FB $835B
6/ BRK $518B
7/ TSLA $417B
8/ V $409B
9/ JNJ $403B
10/ PG $344B
 
Agree. I live in central London and the 3 is workable but I'd prefer a small crossover/hatchback that was narrower and shorter. Better for parking and more practical than the 3.

As an example of how difficult some Tesla's are in London regarding size, the Model X can't drive across Chelsea Bridge. It's too wide to fit through the barriers.

What you need is the cybertruck.

It will squeeze in and expand all those narrow streetz and barriers. Then the X and will fit just fine afterwards.
 
Open interest numbers seem to have changed quite a bit as compared to yesterday. As I look at the option chain on ToS you can see that open interest is well spread out from 2000 to 2500 strikes. I do not see heavy concentration at the 2100 level anymore. I think the MMs did a good job of closing out a number of those open contracts. Are they signaling that they don’t want to bother controlling what happens today? I see something similar for puts OI. Buckle up folks!

The maximum-pain.com website is still showing old data with a heavy concentration at 2100 level. Maybe they have not updated their data. For example ToS is showing OI for 2100 Aug 28 expiry is 6417 where the maximum-pain.com website is showing OI is 23611.

Looks like this chart is now updated. Max pain at 2080 but imo it should not matter for today.
4A7B0334-D10F-4199-B651-9EDC88CC5BF8.jpeg
 
I have several small pension accounts, they should be invested in green/ethical and high growth stocks, however a couple of months ago I got a warning from the pension provider that the value of the pension was at risk due to the fall in commercial property values. Checking my pensions I can't actually see a fall so it was probably a general letter or concerned a small percentage of one of my pensions. UK commercial property has fallen enormously since the COVID-19 lockdown due to tenants refusing to pay rent (taking rent holidays) and the effects of company closures and reduced demand for offices when everyone is working from home. The investment was probably transferred to a "safe" security as I am coming up to the desired retirement age, still it is ironic that a policy designed to protect the pension from volatility can lead to massive falls in the pension value (although it didn't in my case).

I will be taking money out of the pensions over the next few months, as I have realised I can do a better job of investing and won't have any annual fees. Money probably won't be invested in Tesla because I am over exposed, but in green, ethical and biotech, with a HODL policy of at least 5 years.

I combined most of my (UK) pensions into one, took BIG hits/penalties and chucked it all into TSLA. Worked out nicely (so far).

Baillie Gifford (spelling) for a UK version of ARK? I don't seem to be able to invest in ARK in ISAs - not sure about pensions.
 
Last edited: