Ok, so my shares in Osakesäästötili will be for buying CT, and the shares in Arvo-osuustili will stay there, at least for ten years. Suits for me.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
"The greatest pleasure is to vanquish your enemies and chase them before you, to rob them of their wealth and see those dear to them bathed in tears, to ride their horses and clasp to your bosom their wives and daughters."
... and no prisoners.
Cheers!
SebastianR
Active Member
I love your language. Always great to see! (If I would write something using similar constellations of characters, I would have had a few too many of @Lycanthrope 's beers though - I suck in Finnish)
@Causalien - fully agree on your reasoning, I tried to express something similar yesterday. I think for EV stocks it is even more pronounced. So how do you trade a bubble? I mean avoid the fraudsters and fools who don't have a product and no technology etc. that's obvious. But beyond that?
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I was only 11 years old at the time of the dot com bubble, but if I'm not mistaken FOMO was extremely high back then. As Cathie Wood has been saying since early this year, this is not the case right now. She isn't too worried about a bubble or a peak, because there is a fair amount of fear and caution in the current market. Perhaps less so the last 1-2 months, but until quite recently the market was very worried about:
- An irrationally quick market recovery from the COVID lows.
- A COVID 2nd wave in the fall/winter.
Whereas in the past one could invest in bonds or simply hold cash if equity valuations were high, holding cash right now comes with deflation risk, and the returns of bonds are in the gutter due to low interest rates. Therefore, even at historically high valuations equities remain an attractive place to invest capital.
I think high valuations are warranted as of right now, although things could of course change if the FED decides to reverse QE, or if interest rates are increased.
I wouldn't call myself an expert in macro-economics, so I could be missing things, but I'm not too worried about valuations imploding unless the FED changes course. Besides, even if Tesla's valuation is cut in half, with its current growth rate it should only take a year or two to recover.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I think tesla is unusual because it has so many 'true believer' stock holders (including me) that have mentally committed to the fact they are not selling yet AT ANY PRICE.
I don't plan on selling until after I've seen
S&P inclusion
Model Y in Europe
Battery Day
Q3 financials.
Thats at ANY price. if TSLA hit $3k today I'm not selling. I'm sure a lot of us feel the same. This means for those poor souls who have finally realized the company is a good bet and want to buy some shares right now, there are VERY few sellers, so the price is just going to keep climbing up.
I dont think its a tech stock bubble regarding TSLA (Nikola well...), more a case that we can see both amazing growth from TSLA<M and the inevitable doom and crash of volkswagen, GM etc. That money has to go somewhere, and so do those auto sales. You don't have to believe in super-economic growth to back TSLA at this price, just believe in a seismic shift of value AWAY from legacy auto and towards a single company.
I don't plan on selling until after I've seen
S&P inclusion
Model Y in Europe
Battery Day
Q3 financials.
Thats at ANY price. if TSLA hit $3k today I'm not selling. I'm sure a lot of us feel the same. This means for those poor souls who have finally realized the company is a good bet and want to buy some shares right now, there are VERY few sellers, so the price is just going to keep climbing up.
I dont think its a tech stock bubble regarding TSLA (Nikola well...), more a case that we can see both amazing growth from TSLA<M and the inevitable doom and crash of volkswagen, GM etc. That money has to go somewhere, and so do those auto sales. You don't have to believe in super-economic growth to back TSLA at this price, just believe in a seismic shift of value AWAY from legacy auto and towards a single company.
On share dilution to help SP500 and raise capital
One has to decide where the mind of Musk is, along with that of his board members (especially the newest one).
Don't they have a hatred of short sellers?
If it were me and I wanted to bring all interests into alignment, I would not raise for SP500 until after all near term bullish catalysts were done. I think EM is a shrewd MF willing to push the limits to succeed and punish others.
Like in this age of digital currency, contactless payments, online banking, don't you think he does not regularly think how right he was that Paypal could have dominated if he had had his way back then? He ain't gonna get pushed around like some punk now! Add up the market cap of Paypal, SQ, Bitcoin, and a few others.
42.
One has to decide where the mind of Musk is, along with that of his board members (especially the newest one).
Don't they have a hatred of short sellers?
If it were me and I wanted to bring all interests into alignment, I would not raise for SP500 until after all near term bullish catalysts were done. I think EM is a shrewd MF willing to push the limits to succeed and punish others.
Like in this age of digital currency, contactless payments, online banking, don't you think he does not regularly think how right he was that Paypal could have dominated if he had had his way back then? He ain't gonna get pushed around like some punk now! Add up the market cap of Paypal, SQ, Bitcoin, and a few others.
42.
If I make a bold assumption: short term, stock market is set up to transfer money from retail investors to professionals. Then what is going on now makes a lot of sense. Keep the wave rolling, suck a bunch of new money into the stock. Count on them to freak out and sell on a big drop. Which can be just some bad news, macro or specific to tsla, or simply summoned into existence by some media attention of the right kind plus a little money deployed into the market. Or just setting the tone after the completion of the split and battery day when the market is trying to price it.
Shitputs, mumble, mumble margin, errr... hey, can someone with a brain answer this one? Cheers!
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
"itty bitty" = Mainstream outside North America (and especially in Europe)
"premium compact and larger sales class" = niche (outside North America)
"furthering the mission" = (my prefered interpretation) initially replacing as many ICE urban vehicles as possible (pollution, lifespan, inteligence), later all ICE (climate change) - the more EV cars AND vans Tesla and others can displace, the better.
UK 2019 car sales slip to seven-year low: who's up, who's down?
Out of these, the biggest is probably the Sportage ('compact crossover SUV' according to Wiki) or possibly Kuga (escape in USA/NA?)
UK
"The bestselling cars of 2019 were:
- Ford Fiesta 77,833
- VW Golf 58,994
- Ford Focus 56,619
- Vauxhall Corsa 54,239
- Mercedes A-Class 53,724
- Nissan Qashqai 55,532
- Ford Kuga 41,671
- Mini hatchback 41,188
- VW Polo 37,453
- Kia Sportage 34,502
Regionally, car markets seem very diverse. I didn't know many of the cars on this list/slides:- https://www.whatcar.com/news/best-selling-cars-around-the-world
LiveLong&Profit
Member
My plan is - when TSLA is valued at:
Plan is subject to change and renewed yearly.
(May take ~20 years for dividends to come into consideration, but building a viable civilization on Mars is not cheap - a steady huge cash stream in form of dividends is perhaps useful)
- 10x of today: Sell 10%
- 50x of today: Sell 20%
- 100x of today: Sell half.
Plan is subject to change and renewed yearly.
(May take ~20 years for dividends to come into consideration, but building a viable civilization on Mars is not cheap - a steady huge cash stream in form of dividends is perhaps useful)
I suspect that to be the case. A decrease in IV would mean sideways action in the share price and you would see the time decay reduce option value towards the intrinsic value of the underlying calls and puts.
Today as IV increased I watched decreases in share price and observed calls losing value at a slower rate than puts increasing and likewise with upward price movement id see puts lose value slower than calls would increase.
Breakevens for this trade are the strike price ($2050) +/- the premium paid ($447.1 ) which is $1602.9 and $2497.1 by the expiration date (Oct 2). Breakevens being 21.8% from the strike.
The image that came to mind was a balloon that you blew more air into (increased IV). If you tapped it up it tended to float longer.
With increased IV a similar straddle with similar time to expiration of
Oct 9 with a strike of $2250 have call premiums of $285 and put premiums of $296. One straddle (buy one call and buy one put) would cost $58,100 with breakevens of $1669 and $2831. Breakevens at these higher IVs are 25.82% from the strike.
At a certain point one could be tempted to trade against increased volatility as IV gets too high. Trading an iron condor you would make money as long as the share price stayed within the upper and lower limits of your iron condor trade. I would not be tempted as my balls are not giant and I prefer to observe from the bleachers in such circumstances.
My thoughts on straddles are that they are best valued when buying rumors and selling news. Once large events occur I would imagine share price would settle and consolidate and IV would drop.
Runarbt
Active Member
That's kinda bearish imho.. you plan to sell during 2020!?
What happen the next months and even couple of Years - is short-medium term noise. $1000 pre OR post split.. doesnt really matter imho.
We will see only hints of Teslas full potential the next years.. and will be minimum 5-10 years before market realize what is happening. To sell before this.. nah.. havent considered it at all. 4real. I havent held through ups and downs the last 10 years (lost count, bought at $32..) to sell before Tesla is a mature company.. (i.e. FSD, Solar, Batteries, all EV markets covered AND mcap is multiples of current AAPL)
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Compact and larger is NOT niche outside North America.
China and South Korea are not France-Italy or Japan. People in China buy tiny cars because they can't afford larger cars.
Best selling doesn't mean Best profits. They actually have very little profit in the segment.
How much profit and oil demand destruction does Tesla accomplish going after Zoe and itty bitty ICEv with efficient itty bitty ICE?
There is more profit and oil demand destruction in the bigger class of cars.
We know Tesla has authorized one vehicle below the Model 3 designed and manufactured in China for the global market. LEAF is one size bigger than ZOE. It would be silly to skip the LEAF class to manufacture ZOE class car in Europe.
I'm too greedy to give away our future growth to new shareholders unless there is a giant benefit from the extra cash. Tesla revenues will already be screaming higher over the next few years that current debt will be a rounding error.The FED is giving NONE of that liquidity to Tesla. It's because the ratings agencies like Moody's are slow-walking the credit upgrades for Tesla (FED only buys bonds from 'investment' grade companies, as defined by their credit rating).
Telsa with $25B+ cash on hand and ZERO debt gets an immediate upgrade to a high credit rating.
Once Tesla has that high credit rating, it can start selling bonds to the FED. Personally, I think thats the time to hit da shortzes with a share buy-back program, but hey that's just because I'd like to see blood running in the Street...
Proving once again, when you no longer need money, banks will trip over themselves to give you more.
By the way, on Monday there will be about 932M outstanding shares of TSLA. 65M is only 7%, as I said above. Isn't that worth a 225% increase in cash on hand? I suspect Moody's would think so.
Cheers!
If Tesla really can use extra cash to accelerate progress they can just issue junk bonds,which while more expensive than IG debt, are at historical lows and are far cheaper than equity if our growth assumptions are correct.
So you will only sell half of Tesla even after Tesla becomes the entire stock market.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
FOMOnis hard to measure. But I have a pretty concrete system to do it. Categorizing several ppl based on their understanding of the market and where they are on the economic totem pole.
It's starting to reach some of the bottom ppl. Anecdotal evidence. One guy whom I consider an indicator convinced several ppl in the group to start trading. It'd be different if the guy is actually top tier intelligence and has talent, bit he is at the bottom of the rung when I consider his intuition in finances.
The blow off the top will happen in a very short time frame. YYou can track the % rise over a short period of time for that. As literally, everyone that should not be in stock, got into tech stocks within the span of 6 months in y2k.
@SebastinR How do one profit? You start laddering up sellimg calls. (high vol) Small % each time it jump up a bunch. Basically nobody can time the top. But whatever you got before will be much better than the pop. The stock split will helpfull allow us to sell off smaller chunks as opposed to the insane large $$$ amount now.
If a bubble pop like y2k happens, we'll see tsla reach 10k within a 6 months time frame. Let's hope it doesn't happen.
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How can you compare a hardware company and the universal operating system for PC to *sugar* websites like petrocks.com?
I agree there is an ev stock bubble built on the backs of Tesla's unstoppable valuation increase right now. Overall the tech sector now has lower risk than value dividend paying equities going forward. Remember that fiduciary who claims Tesla is dangerous? What is dangerous for my retirement account is value stocks because these mega corporations like oil, cruise, dining, hospitality and travel will drop 40% the next time a weird bug is announced by the WHO just to front run another potential Covid like black swan while tech prepares another round of record profits. And guess what, these bugs come and go every 3-4 years.
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