Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

I didn't see anyone post this:

Todays +$55.64 gain was the equivalent of a +$278.20c up day pre-split.

absolutely unreal.

Yet while today was a big up day for me in $ terms, as a percentage bump to my portfolio it didn't even make the top dozen. My "lightening up on TSLA" approach is working!

 

[Sofie]

Have you read The Millionaire Next Door? Your lifestyle as described is how it starts.
You won’t be able to avoid it, from the sounds of it. You’ve already made a strong move by choosing TSLA.

I think it’s fair to say that you can start treating yourself now by splurging on that name brand TP. Baby steps.

Yes! I loved that book actually! I read it when I was 16 while working two full time jobs, McDonald’s and grocery store Publix (Using the money I made to buy as much Publix stock - private company- I could) and trying to graduate high school with perfect grades so I could get a free ride for undergrad lol.
Yeah, maybe I’ll try this, what you suggest. It seems luxurious lol!

 

[JustSaying]

This is entering bubble territory. But I believe it can hit $700 before dropping down to $350ish. Please, if you are using margin, start deleveraging. I think Tesla can be the world biggest company, in 5-8 years, not now!

unless FSD rewrite is actually convincing

They used to say "The only thing that will continue to go straight up is California real estate" Oh never mind, that didn't work out. I did sell SOME of our CA real estate in April 2007 and bought it back later. I plan on doing the same with the Tesla shares I sold recently .
At 70, "I would rather be almost right than exactly wrong"
BTW, I did pull the trigger on a AWD Model Y today, "Delivery date is "2-4 weeks"" I will not cancel my LR RWD model Y reservation yet.

 

[Krugerrand]

I do understand why people who bought at low levels (I started at about $180) would consider selling today.
BUT.
Do you really want to be the people who sold just BEFORE battery day, Q3 production/earnings and the S&P inclusion?

Pfft! Majority in the $30s. No, not selling. As AC/DC might say; we got them by the balls, baby.

 

[HG Wells]

Well, I did something strange near closing.
I bought Sept 4th 520 calls and 490 puts.
I think both will be profitable.
They were both CHEAP !

EDIT: Yes I really did that. Now it will probably rise to 519 and stay there.

 

[Unpilot]

After hours is warming up a bit heading into the close

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Have you read The Millionaire Next Door? Your lifestyle as described is how it starts.
You won’t be able to avoid it, from the sounds of it. You’ve already made a strong move by choosing TSLA.

I think it’s fair to say that you can start treating yourself now by splurging on that name brand TP. Baby steps.

Once you go Charmin ultra soft...there's no turning back

 

[Mo City]

Instead of screenshots, I found the best way for me is to have a GoogleSheet that mimics my trading account. This way, i have near-realtime portfolio value and exact personal daily/history trending and snapshots.

This also removes the temptation to daytrade for quick gain since the buy/sell button is not available. I lost a lot of shares because of constantly logging in to try and time the market.

I've done my finances on Google Sheets for ~15 years.

The only problem is Sheets' stock prices sometimes lag by as much as 15-20 mins. This is very annoying when TSLA has an eruption day and my greedy self wants to view the highest balance possible. Today, in particular, I had the Fidelity app open quite a bit.

 

[smorgasbord]

With all the talk about TSLA being in a bubble, I was concerned myself. So, I ran this pretty quick exercise, mapping the CAGR of vehicle deliveries against the CAGR of TSLA's stock price (pre-split):

Year   Deliveries    Stock Price (early/mid July)
2013: 22,442        $120
2014: 31,655        $218
2015: 50,658        $275
2016: 76,297        $216
2017: 103,181       $313
2018: 245,162       $310
2019: 310,686       $245
2020: 475,000      $2500  (est delivery and current SP)

Then I calculate the CAGRs:

Year Delivery_CAGR   Stock_CAGR    
2013:  22,442          $120  (starting numbers)
2014:   41%            81.7%
2015:   50.2%          51.4%
2016:   50.4%          21.4%
2017:   46.4%          27.1%
2018:   61.3%          20.9%
2019:   55%            55%
2020:   55%            54.3%  <--- the line that matters

So, yeah, this ignores gross margin, EBITDA, ASP, capex, tax credits, etc.. I admit it's not scientific. But, it does show that TSLA's price today really isn't out of whack relative to what the business has done. Both have experienced a CAGR of about 55% over the last 7 years. And, it's not like 2013's stock price should be considered a high base on which to start.

What I think this shows is that for several years, TSLA was depressed (what Cathie Wood called a "coiled spring"), whether it be due to successful short attacks, market perception of Tesla's accomplishments being slow, a recognitiion that Bankwuptcy wasn't around the corner, etc. while the Tesla, the business, was actually growing really well.

So, high as $2500 (pre-split) seems to be, in comparison to Tesla's measurable business performance, the stock price has merely, barely, caught up.

Now, add in Tesla Energy, TaaS, Tesla HVAC, etc.

 

[Zero CO2]

we are approaching page 10,000 of the
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

when do we hit page 10K ? 9/1, 9/2 , 9/3, 9/4 ? naive forecast looks like 9/4

i started posting to this thread at page 1843 Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

my original post is aging quite well

 

[Unpilot]

we are approaching page 10,000 of the
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

when do we hit page 10K ? 9/1, 9/2 , 9/3, 9/4 ? naive forecast looks like 9/4

2 hours after sp-500 inclusion.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

After hours is warming up a bit heading into the close

it's going to take me a few days to get used to the fact that a +15 bump after hours is equivalent to a 75 point bump last week

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

2 hours after sp-500 inclusion.

Hey, Adam Jonas was actually correct for all of today's regular trading. Then came the aftermarket and he might never be right again.

 

[Uncle Ron]

Wells Fargo account had correct share count when I logged in after market open [+5]. Some of the other numbers where a bit off, who cares about that, I still know how to count, I think.
This has got to be a bit of a squeeze. I mean stock split via dividend, S&P inclusion, battery day and blow out 3rd quarter on the horizon, if that ain't got them running they need counseling.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Aug 31, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Trending #1 on Twitter; 4 New ATHs Today"

Traded: $56,816,352,719.62 ($56.82 B)
Volume: 118,710,864
VWAP: $478.61

Closing SP / VWAP: 104.36%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $464.339B / $182.919B = 253.85%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $335.51B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $193.33B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap on pace to unlock 3rd tranche of CEO comp. plan on Thu, Sep 03, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 43.4% (43rd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 39.6% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.81% of Short Volume (56th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "TSLA up 74% for the month of August 2020"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Hock1]

I've had an on-line brokerage account since 1996 and I've never seen this much SNAFU over a simple stock split. So, no, it's not because the brokerage software is still in it's infancy!

This is not a simple stock split. This was a distribution of a stock dividend, designed to shine a light on the manipulative practices of short sellers. A major reason for the huge gains in the SP over the last 3-4 weeks, is that those who have shorted TSLA under the Madoff Exemption have not been able to produce the dividend shares to the rightful owners at the pay date.. This is why many brokerages are giving some sort of BS reason why the dividend shares have not been delivered to the rightful owners. These manipulators are desperately trying to buy these post-split shares right now. They were due today, but the SEC, FINRA and the other abetting agencies are giving them a free ride for a few days. Those who understand what I am saying should be absolutely outraged about how our markets now operate.

 

[StealthP3D]

that is actually a story of caution. Qcom recently reached the peaks of 1999 - twenty years later

No doubt Qualcomm shares got ahead of themselves (I didn't sell a single share until it peaked and within 3 months I had sold it all within 30% of it's singular all-time peak). During those three months I took advantage of a number of opportunities to sell it all off within 30% of the peak. Of couurse it's higher than that now. Not only is it impossible to time the peak but what is often over-looked by people who think that Qualcomm would have made a terrible "buy and hold" is this:

QCOM went public 29 years ago in 1991 at $16/share. If you had bought 1000 shares for $16,000, you would now have 32,640 shares. Some of those shares are due to the one-time dividend spin-off of Leap Wireless and are not reflected in a long-term QCOM stock chart (at all). Your Qualcomm shares would now be worth $3,887,424.

But here's the kicker - in 2003 QCOM started paying dividends that helped offset the lack of capital appreciation between 2000 and 2018. It's beyond the scope of this analysis to exactly quantify those dividends but this Investopedia article from 2019 says dividends from a 100 share IPO purchase would annualize out at over $6,000/year. That means a 1000 share IPO purchase of $16,000 would have had annualized dividends of $60,000 between 2003 and 2019! Each quarters dividend would be roughly equal to your entire initial investment! Currently QCOM pays $0.65/share quarterly dividend so your 32,640 shares with a cost basis of $16,000 would be paying $84,864 annually just in dividends! This number has been steadily rising for years and is expected to continue to do so.

This is the power of compounding! And it works even if the underlying stock has a long period of no capital appreciation. What matters is long-term growth. You want to buy and hold companies with superior long-term growth potential and execution. Sure, if it were possible to time the peaks and valleys consistently, it would be better to try to time the market. But it has been shown time and time again that even experienced and successful traders have trouble timing the market better than a buy and hold strategy.

Stock selection is proven and works. Timing the market is not proven and generally doesn't work better than buy/hold.

 

[mickle]

Once you go Charmin ultra soft...there's no turning back

I mentioned this before during the toilet paper shortage... if you are a pre-Teslanaire the upgrade to Charmin is a good choice, but after that get yourself a Toto bidet toilet seat. You won't want to use anything else after that and you'll barely need any Charmin.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I couldn’t order my Tesla Model Y yet because I need a 7 seaters to haul my 5 kids. So I invested all the money dedicated to my Model Y this morning. The taxes just paid themselves.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

This is not a simple stock split. This was a distribution of a stock dividend, designed to shine a light on the manipulative practices of short sellers. A major reason for the huge gains in the SP over the last 3-4 weeks, is that those who have shorted TSLA under the Madoff Exemption have not been able to produce the dividend shares to the rightful owners at the pay date.. This is why many brokerages are giving some sort of BS reason why the dividend shares have not been delivered to the rightful owners. These manipulators are desperately trying to buy these post-split shares right now. They were due today, but the SEC, FINRA and the other abetting agencies are giving them a free ride for a few days. Those who understand what I am saying should be absolutely outraged about how our markets now operate.

so how many days do they have to cover ? i.e is there a legal obligation to cover within a certain amount of days ?

If so, can we expect a percipitous short term drop immediately thereafter (assuming no S&P inclusion ) or other positive news ?