Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BelfastEV]

I last sold a bit of my position at 576 (pre split!) of which I’ll prob see 576 again this week (post split!). I sold 576 to go against my model 3 purchase. Always said to hold to a 1 trillion valuation so that’s at least my exit point if not higher for the rest of my holding. I’ve had one long since sept 2012 at £18.09 per share...

anyone in the UK with Hargreaves Lansdown ? What a mess they have made of the stock splits for Tesla and Apple . Only showing your account as 1/5th and 1/4th of it’s real share value. Eg if you had Tesla shares worth 25k showing as 5k etc . Basically it’s your pre split no of shares at the new share price... let’s say I had 20 shares and now I should have 100. If I wanted to sell 20 post split shares I’d be scared to incase they sold my whole holding!

 

[Robocop]

According to the S&P themselves, the Sept rebalance takes effect on the 18th. (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/web-data-downloads/regulatory/spdji-equity-rebalance-current.xlsx )

If ZM gets into the S&P 500 with no mention of Tesla, TSLA share price is going to tank.

Has a company this large (market cap) post-profitability ever been ignored before? Like is it common for SP to not include a company due to volatility / something else?

 

[Vad42]

As of this morning it was Zuck. Probably closing in on Ortega and Ellison.

Both Ortega and Ellison are relative paupers. If this continues "he" will soon be number 2. Gates is not that far ahead of him after today.

Real Time Billionaires

 

[jerry33]

So what you are saying is.

All these people who couldn't afford Tsla at 2k a share ended up buying and selling hundreds of millions of shares today at 500 dollars a share?

Of course not all, but I do suspect that it's why the stock wasn't pushed down during the times when it looked as if it might be. I see from other forums people posting they bought one, two, or three shares.

 

[Jack6591]

According to the S&P themselves, the Sept rebalance takes effect on the 18th. (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/web-data-downloads/regulatory/spdji-equity-rebalance-current.xlsx )

If ZM gets into the S&P 500 with no mention of Tesla, TSLA share price is going to tank.

I’m not sure I agree. TSLA’s extraordinary rise is an aside to conventional wisdom, there in lies its attraction. Tesla is far more significant than the S&P 500. Tesla’s inclusion would bring legitimacy to the S&P — not vice versa.

 

[Sparky4life]

Hovering at $450 B valuation. Are people getting bored of my Market Cap chart updates yet? Maybe I should make the axis logarithmic for tension?? Add AAPL, GOOG???

View attachment 582814

Yes. Everyone knows that Tesla is not an automotive company. Just do top 10.

 

[Mo City]

Current top 10 USA market caps:

AAPL 2.21T
AMZN 1.73T
MSFT 1.71T
GOOG 1.11T
FB 835.3B
BRK 521.9B
TSLA 464.3B
V 451.1B
JNJ 403.9B
WMT 393.2B

Movin' on up!

 

[Sanny]

Current SP rise is hard to understand for many and I see more and more cautious calls to take some profits. I choose to use the following easy logic just for myself - Tesla board knows much more than us about current SP technical factors - sp500 inclusion, short dynamics, etc. I will consider selling some when I see capital raise announcement from Tesla. Also, when my short shorts will finally arrive.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I sold 576 to go against my model 3 purchase

When people ask you how much your M3 was, tell them two hundred and fifty grand!

 

[Unpilot]

All in all I would say it was a good day.

 

[Singuy]

When people ask you how much your M3 was, tell them two hundred and fifty grand!

When people ask you how much your house cost, tell them 4.5 million because you didn't take out a second mortgage to buy Tesla.

 

[Thekiwi]

I didn't see anyone post this:

Todays +$55.64 gain was the equivalent of a +$278.20c up day pre-split.

absolutely unreal.

 

[Discoducky]

Would like to add that I thought back then, in 2014, with all that Tesla was doing, other car companies would 'get wise' and start competing when they could plainly see that the Tesla product was better in ways that they couldn't compete with. And to be perfectly frank, it was apparent to vehicle engineers as well as lowly Staff Program Managers like myself. My assumption was that Tesla had a 5 to 7 year lead on critical components like AP hardware, Inverter efficiency, BMS software, infotainment software, OTA software and chassis packaging (for simplicity of this discussion). Given another company had vision and capital, they could implement a strategy and likely 'catch up' in 5 to 7 years.

Turns out, this hasn't happened, at all. With the speed of everything that is happening at Tesla in this pandemic, it seems Tesla has not only INCREASED this gap, but the gap continues to expand. I don't need to list out the reasons for this community, but it is so apparent now that there is ZERO competition outside of possibly Lucid (yeah Peter!) and hopefully Rivian. But the possible large capital and large scale traditional car companies are still not able to put in place a vision, hire or even attract proper management.

I'll add a bit of tidbit. I know custom ASIC development and I know technical program and product management as well as a customer delight. If Tesla has a battery breakthrough in the realm, even the ballpark, of increasing W/kg beyond that of the typical trend, their lead will continue to extend and grow well beyond 2030.

If you haven't read this article, The Case For Tesla's "Business Miracle" | Loup Ventures, it describes the 'business miracle' but in short, it is so rare to get more than 2 years head start, let alone 7 to 10 and then to STILL have at LEAST a 3 to 5 year lead (based on customer ASICs and software design) that continues to GROW is quite almost certainly a once in a lifetime event and quite possibly not yet seen in modern times.

Right on queue: Tesla's battery strategy has "no advantage," Ford CEO says

and the article is rife with tone deaf quotes about how Ford is going to fall further behind.

This is quite possible the best or opposite view here (short and sweet version):

 

[StealthP3D]

In the olden days there were no online accounts so you would either call your broker for info or wait for the monthly statement to come in the mail. They may have had similar problems, but they were not as visible and immediate as now.

I've had an on-line brokerage account since 1996 and I've never seen this much SNAFU over a simple stock split. So, no, it's not because the brokerage software is still in it's infancy!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The delayed S&P inclusion is the force behind all post covid dip rise. If they want to wait another quarter before inclusion.....all the better!

We'd be s lot closer to $300($1500) if they'd just processed the inclusion a while back because NOBODY IS GOING TO SELL until we see if there's a squeeze on inclusion.

Every short that has to cover will find few folks offering shares, therefore the longer Wall Street puts this off in hopes of a pullback, the worse it will get. It's absolutely delightful.

 

[Rockster]

Quick story:

I bought TSLA after reserving my Model 3 a few years ago, my plan was to hold pretty much forever. I was into Tesla hook line and sinker, I'm a lifer. I never thought I would sell, then Covid hid and it shook me out of my position at 820. I was certain it was going to be a rough Q2 and I would buy back after everything settled down, and anyways, I made a nice gain. Then the mother of all rallies hit. Every day I watched the stock thinking, I can't buy now it's too high. I said that at 900, 1,000, 1,200, 1,500, 2,000. Then the split, I can't buy now. FOMO is a real thing.

Finally this morning, I put all that aside and bought back in my original amount of shares. Yes, it is 6 times less that I would have had, but I'm trying not to think of that. It feels great to be back on this ride!

I did the same exact thing. I got out in the high 700's and back in 100% at about $1500, so I'm still making money but I'll forever kick myself for that misstep. Welcome back!

 

[jpsgoneev]

Yes! This is exactly me right now. You kind of adjust to a certain low cost lifestyle, working like crazy, saving, and frugality your whole life and it’s just natural to see a number, smile, and carry on with said normality of life.
Heck, I wouldn’t even know what to do with myself if I went to the store and bought name brand toilet paper let alone give myself full range of my TSLA gains.

Have you read The Millionaire Next Door? Your lifestyle as described is how it starts.
You won’t be able to avoid it, from the sounds of it. You’ve already made a strong move by choosing TSLA.

I think it’s fair to say that you can start treating yourself now by splurging on that name brand TP. Baby steps.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I do understand why people who bought at low levels (I started at about $180) would consider selling today.
BUT.
Do you really want to be the people who sold just BEFORE battery day, Q3 production/earnings and the S&P inclusion?

 

[Ameliorate]

I do understand why people who bought at low levels (I started at about $180) would consider selling today.
BUT.
Do you really want to be the people who sold just BEFORE battery day, Q3 production/earnings and the S&P inclusion?

Awfully kind of them to let somebody else aboard the gain train. Maybe they have enough I hope they spend it well!

 

[EVortex]

I've had an on-line brokerage account since 1996 and I've never seen this much SNAFU over a simple stock split. So, no, it's not because the brokerage software is still in it's infancy!

Many of the more sophisticated systems have functions for handling things like stock splits, but there are a lot of systems that require manual database updates and code changes that need to be managed and implemented appropriately. A "manual" update would normally include a scripted process plan with a scheduled task and dependencies list and QA/validation steps along the way. Depending on the complexity of the system and how good the system owner is at following and validating the conversion process, things can go anywhere from perfectly to poorly. The brokerage I use had all the changes in their test system (not prod) until early this morning when they migrated to prod and everything started showing up correctly and working properly. Did they have a sophisticated system with a split function built-in or did they perform their split process steps correctly? Don't know, but either way it worked well for them, but sounds like not so much for many others. I think it's not about software in its infancy, but it is about software/conversion best or accepted practices being followed or not.