Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

There will be 20 million shares traded at 270 soon

Can you define soon ?

I don't know about 270, but I find it unlikely that in the next 3 weeks (until EA announcement), SP will stay above current level. But, 2 bad days from here, we can hit 270s.

Today TSLA (down 2.12%) is in sync with NASDAQ (down 2.08%).

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla has committed to publishing their safety data quarterly. Might we get this before the earnings call?

 

[Krugerrand]

I like seeing Tesla take the price of all cars down $2k. I wish they could have gone further, especially for S and X. OTOH, I suspect that the $35k base model will still be pegged to that price. Perhaps this was one reason with Tesla withheld the short range version until after tax credit was reduced.

I'd love to see S and X sales double over the next 2 years. I think if they can carve about $5k off the price, this should do it. In China the new GF3 may give Tesla the means to carve much more off the price in China.

At any rate, I think it is important for Tesla to offer newer models and to make existing models more price competitive. What this will do is lock in a very strong market position. Tesla is still mostly competing with ICE vehicles. Tesla still has a long way to go to achieve pricing competitive with ICE.

First ever disagree with you. They aren’t going to increase S & X sales - they’ve said so and explained why, so until they do an about face it ain’t going to happen.

Not sure why people keep clinging to that thought. I believe S and X days are numbered. For a year now people have been talking complete refresh and bigger and newer technology battery. At most I think we’ll see an interior refresh - no more if Tesla holds to their public statement.

We’ll see but the longer it takes to happen the less likely it’s to happen because 3 SR and Y and Semi and pickup and Roadster and China Gigafactory and Europe Gigafactory and Tesla Solar and Tesla Energy and whatever else is on the neverending list. S and X did their jobs but I’m thinking collectors’ cars sooner rather than later.

Obviously Tesla is going to offer new models just as quickly as they can and hopefully they’ll be able to simultaneously do multiple new models at once. That is their plan.

I’d imagine that price lowering will continue to happen as they achieve efficiencies and economies of scale. Pricing as we’ve seen so far will also be linked to currency exchanges and tariffs and VAT and duties and other types of taxes. This will not be new or surprising.

Mission is as it’s always been; accelerate the transition to sustainable energy as fast as we can. Suggesting or hinting that they aren’t doing that (your last paragraph) the best way they feel they can is unfair.

 

[tivoboy]

Better wait until tomorrow, when the uptick rule isn't in effect.

let the price come to YOU, don't chase it. Overall markets are going lower in the near term. TSLA will not be immune.

 

[NicoV]

I find it hard to believe that the SINGLE digit $ cost of a mobile OS is what enabled third party companies to survive in the low cost smartphone market. (and they don't really get access to any current generation OS at the time). Not having to build an OS from scratch is a thing for sure but not having to have paid a third party for it to license wasn't the difference between starting or not starting, or profit and no profit, etc.

I didn’t mean the cost was the important thing.
The important thing was that Google was behind it, and determined to build an ecosystem at scale around it. Without Google pushing for critical mass, we would have had 20 different knockoffs with the same fate of Windows Phone, each of them failing to reach critical mass. Without Google pushing Android, I’m pretty sure Apple would have had much more market share today in a market with competitors with me-too products (living of the profits of their flip phones) that are struggling to survive. Doesn’t that look like the car landscape 10 years from now? Maybe the Chinese government will turn out to play the role of Google, but I doubt that would get much traction in the Western world.

 

[Johnny Ma]

let the price come to YOU, don't chase it.

I am at $550 patiently waiting

 

[EVNow]

let the price come to YOU, don't chase it.

Good advice since we have 3 weeks before EA announcement.

Positive catalysts to be aware of though :
- Trump announcing on twitter they have struck a deal with China (Possible this month, not very likely)
- A deal is reached to reopen the govt (highly likely)
- The Govt reopen deal includes extension of tax credit (unlikely)

 

[Johnny Ma]

- The Govt reopen deal includes extension of tax credit (unlikely)

Not counting on this, but GM reaching 200k sales in 2018 might make it slightly more likely than it was. They'll be very interested in lobbying hard for it.

 

[uselesslogin]

I thought this might be of interest:
Toyota Motor North America Reports December 2018, Year-End Sales | Toyota USA Newsroom

Camry posted sales of 29,093 units; top-selling car in the segment for 2018

So the Model 3 is about 4,000 units behind for the month. With a continuing decline in ICE sales the Model 3 might win a month after the SR is released.

 

[mrdoubleb]

First ever disagree with you. They aren’t going to increase S & X sales - they’ve said so and explained why, so until they do an about face it ain’t going to happen.

Not sure why people keep clinging to that thought. I believe S and X days are numbered. For a year now people have been talking complete refresh and bigger and newer technology battery. At most I think we’ll see an interior refresh - no more if Tesla holds to their public statement.

Agree. Also, Gali seems to regularly project in his videos S/X sales hitting ~120k in coming years with seemingly no justification except for this refresh. I know many people watch his videos and I do think he is doing great work (I only wish he would cut caffeine intake by half), but he also completely ignores Tesla`s repeat statements how they don`t plan to increase that production save for efficiencies.

Regarding those production lines I`d much rather know if Tesla is still on only 2 shifts like a year ago, as if they are, that would be super impressive and would have margin implications on those cars.

 

[EVNow]

I didn’t mean the cost was the important thing.
The important thing was that Google was behind it, and determined to build an ecosystem at scale around it. Without Google pushing for critical mass, we would have had 20 different knockoffs with the same fate of Windows Phone, each of them failing to reach critical mass. Without Google pushing Android, I’m pretty sure Apple would have had much more market share today in a market with competitors with me-too products (living of the profits of their flip phones) that are struggling to survive. Doesn’t that look like the car landscape 10 years from now? Maybe the Chinese government will turn out to play the role of Google, but I doubt that would get much traction in the Western world.

Its always fun to argue what could have been. But, if Google wasn't there with Android - since Apple would not license their software and there was clearly demand for cheaper phones - some other tech giant would have filled that role by now - Amazon, Microsoft or even FB. Fairly sure, Windows Phone would have taken off if Android wasn't there. BTW, you are confusing between Windows Phone & Windows Mobile.

 

[Chickenlittle]

It is real and very recent - the aftermath of the earthquake in Alaska. Should be very applicable to California too. What I'm saying is that it's super cool that a lot of Beta testers are driving tons of miles to test the FSD, but some scenarios like this they are not going to see. But they do need to be identified and tested before FSD is released to a mass consumer. Because sooner or later one of these rare things will happen and you want to make sure you've prepared for it.

Are you kidding? Design FSD to deal with earthquake? Why exclude volcanic eruption? Ok not very often but tornados? Coastal flooding? Hurricanes, acts of terrorism? All more common

 

[AndyH]

I'm 5 years long but couldn't resist anymore after reading all the posts here about calls and puts. I bought some calls for the first time today. 15 mars 375.

 

[Chickenlittle]

You seem to be moving the goalpost. You said:

"They're not even averaging 5k a week anywhere in the quarter based on these Model 3 production number"

They sold > 61K Model 3's. There's 12 production weeks in a typical quarter (and this one probably had additional holiday shutdown). So not only did they average 5K anywhere in the quarter, they did it for the entire production quarter.


Now you don't like the fact they may have been averaging 6K/wk in a good chunk of Dec.?

Of course they are moving the goals. You would be locked up if you publicly suggested that production would be 245,000 this year only two years ago

 

[EVNow]

It is real and very recent - the aftermath of the earthquake in Alaska. Should be very applicable to California too. What I'm saying is that it's super cool that a lot of Beta testers are driving tons of miles to test the FSD, but some scenarios like this they are not going to see. But they do need to be identified and tested before FSD is released to a mass consumer. Because sooner or later one of these rare things will happen and you want to make sure you've prepared for it.

I don't think you need to take care of every possible catastrophic scenario - just need a way to stop FSD. May be remotely disable FSD in case of such emergencies ? FSD will safely slow down and park if it can't figure out whats happening ?

 

[Navin]

Looks like institutional guys are buying on Tesla’s weakness
Money Flows: Buying on Weakness - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

 

[Analyst007]

300$ mark Breaking down. I hope we see 250 before ER so I can load up big

 

[KarenRei]

Really odd that Consumer Reports never posted consumer satisfaction numbers (as far as I can tell) in 2018. Normally they post in mid to late December.

 

[Lucky_Man]

No, did you read the post you replied to? Because I very clearly spelled out why they're not going to do this until absolutely forced to. And may possibly just kill off the line rather than redesigning it, depending on market needs at the time.

Hmmm, if the S & X line is eventually re-purposed, the market price for our used MS's and MX's is gonna jump up, right? The "Classic" car syndrome...

 

[mickificki]

300$ mark Breaking down. I hope we see 250 before ER so I can load up big

i hope you choke on your $250 (not literally)....