Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I suspect China figures helping Tesla grow faster hurts Trump and his fossil fuel allies.

I believe China is not adversarial in that sense - they want to support what is good for China, which is:

• Energy independence from fossil fuels (right now it's still very reliant on U.S. natural gas imports and on crude oil imports),
• Clean up their air pollution which was and is a major source of citizen unrest.

EVs are a big step forward in that regard.

China's leadership is very technocratic: I believe something like 70% of the top Chinese leadership are engineers and scientists with top grades? Technology development plans with a 10-20 years time-line are not uncommon. The 2-5 years election cycle that dominates much of U.S. politics is unknown to them.

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe it's time to move your trading desk into the bathroom, you know, like the shorts.

And talking of dumps... According to sources familiar with the matter, this is actually a picture of Spiegel taking a dump, involuntarily, without warning and whist wearing his trousers, in the hours after 17Q3ER

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We should want to hold earnings until the China situation nears resolution. With the Fed rebounding macros for us, the trade war "end" plus earnings/guidance would be the double whammy that gives TSLA exit velocity and there's no telling where SP would stop. Donald is bottoming and will need to "resolve" this to boost markets and claim victory before directly causing a real global recession. 2 weeks.

I'm perfectly content floating at $300-$340 until then. Ideally I'd LOVE one more dip to $300 in the next two weeks so I can load up on Feb 15 calls around $340. As always, there's no chance of that happening, the market is always far far smarter than me. With the Fed as a market tailwind, we're almost certain to drift upward from here to earnings.

Not advise. Actual advice is put a c-note on the Birds @ 15/1 to win it all

 

[Starno]

I wish TSLA to report earnings before January monthly options expiration, so before 18th. The shorts will go crazy if report is any good as we expect. Otherwise next week can be big drag down and then these crazy analysts has more time to manipulate up their earning targets.

I think Elon kinda owes us that, for his 420 tweet.

But I have a feeling that it will happen week or two later.

I'm not sure but I believe the ER is usually released the first Wesdnesday of February, so probably on February 6th.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Dont hear much about the Tesla network anymore.
Plus Tesla keeps changing their FSD strategy every 2 years, so is the miles/data from the prior versions really any value?

They are still the same cars, with cameras in the same locations pointing in the same directions. So, yes, all data from all those miles are still applicable.

 

[lklundin]

It hit 180? I missed out on that

For a look into the heart of darkness Stanphyl Capital put out their year end letter Long rambling section on TSLA of course, including links to what seems to be every article with the word "electric" in it, showcasing all the "competition"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4232055-stanphyl-capital-letter-december-2018

In relation to his investors Mark BS is really painting himself into a corner here:
"In October, Tesla reported the best quarter it will ever have (a GAAP profit of $312 million), and in 2019 it shall return to its money-losing ways"
- so while mr. BS avoids making a strong assertion regarding Q4, he will still have to face serious questions, when it surfaces that Q4 was indeed more profitable than Q3 or (inclusively) that 2019 sees additional profitable quarters.

So I think I will read his next letter to his investors as well...

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm not sure but I believe the ER is usually released the first Wesdnesday of February, so probably on February 6th.

My guess is that:

• If the Q4 numbers are good (i.e. better than Q3) then the Q4 earnings report might be released on January 30th (Wednesday), announced on the 28th-29th (Monday-Tuesday).
• If there's some really big negative macro event in the week before, overshadowing the good results, they might delay it by a week to February 6 (Wednesday).

 

[Lessmog]

Luckily, TMC has sharp people like @KarenRei, who spotted that these are not actually cranes, and that instead foundation stabilisers are being driven into the soft ground.

Also, many thanks to new contributor @phnix, who earlier today explained about the need for such stabilisers at the site,


TMC (and the truth) is beating the shorts hands down.

Piles

Yah, them daft shorties wouldn't know a pile if it bit them from behind.

 

[Nocturnal]

I suspect China figures helping Tesla grow faster hurts Trump and his fossil fuel allies.

China isn't stupid. They don't have much in the way of domestic energy sources. Solar/electric will do a lot to make them more viable on the global stage. (which may or may not be bad for us)

My guess is that:

• If the Q4 numbers are good (i.e. better than Q3) then the Q4 earnings report might be released on January 30th (Wednesday), announced on the 28th-29th (Monday-Tuesday).
• If there's some really big negative macro event in the week before, overshadowing the good results, they might delay it by a week to February 6 (Wednesday).

Like if the FBI hauled Trump off in handcuffs during his public address tonight?

 

[EVNow]

A 1,5% drop; not that large. Tesla dropped 4,5% in that timeperiod.

I guess that's because overnight there were reports about Larry filing form 3 about his 1 Billion buy. That sent the stock up 3%. Ofcourse in the morning they realized its old news.

So, now its mostly tracking Nasdaq.

But, without that big drop in Nasdaq, Tesla may not have divided that much.

Larry Ellison's Big Tesla Stake Is Mostly Old News -- Barrons.com
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 7:51 AM ET 1/8/2019
News of a 3 million-share stake in Tesla (TSLA) by its recently appointed director Larry Ellison may have moved the auto maker's stock higher early this morning, but it's mostly old news.

The information, published by the company in an SEC filling in connection with Ellison's addition to Tesla's board, offers little in the way of new information beyond what was already said in the late-December blog post when he was named.

Tech titan Ellison, the initial announcement read, "purchased 3 million shares earlier this year." The filing says much the same, adding the detail that the shares are technically held indirectly, through a trust.

It isn't clear when Ellison purchased his stake or at what prices. A 3 million-share stake would be worth about $1 billion based on Monday's close. It represents about 1.7% of Tesla's shares outstanding.

 

[ggr]

Nor did I say "it is the same as the Soviet Union". But it is still a planned economy. They designate specific cities or areas for specific industries - say, auto production - and build them to facilitate this. They build whole cities from scratch when they want to build new industries in a certain area.

Lingang New City in Shanghai - the outskirts of which are hosting GF3 - was a ghost town five years ago. Tons of construction, no people. Suddenly, by three years ago, it was populated and operational. By 2020 it's supposed to have half a million people. This is highly planned growth.

Yes. Shenzhen was a fishing village until about 1996, when China realized that Great Britain really would give back Hong Kong. So the made it the telecoms development city, and by the early 2000s it had the headquarters of ZTE, development offices for Huawei and a few others, and a million people. I had the misfortune to go there for standards meeting a couple of times.

 

[Tslynk67]

This looks like shorts capping to me - keeping the SP just in the red while NASDAQ rises, then letting it drop when NASDAS drops...

 

[KarenRei]

China isn't stupid. They don't have much in the way of domestic energy sources. Solar/electric will do a lot to make them more viable on the global stage. (which may or may not be bad for us)

Xi Jinping Thought - Wikipedia

1. Ensuring Communist Party of China leadership over all forms of work in China.
2. The Communist Party of China should take a people-centric approach for the public interest.
3. The continuation of "comprehensive deepening of reforms".
4. Adopting new science-based ideas for "innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development".
5. Following "socialism with Chinese characteristics" with "people as the masters of the country".
6. Governing China with Rule of Law.
7. "Practice socialist core values", including Marxism, communism and socialism with Chinese characteristics.
8. "Improving people's livelihood and well-being is the primary goal of development".
9. Coexist well with nature with "energy conservation and environmental protection" policies and "contribute to global ecological safety".
10. Strengthen national security.
11. The Communist Party of China should have "absolute leadership over" China's People's Liberation Army.
12. Promoting the one country, two systems system for Hong Kong and Macau with a future of "complete national reunification" and to follow the One-China policy and 1992 Consensus for Taiwan.
13. Establish a common destiny between Chinese people and other people around the world with a "peaceful international environment".
14. Improve party discipline in the Communist Party of China.

 

[larmor]

I guess that's because overnight there were reports about Larry filing form 3 about his 1 Billion buy. That sent the stock up 3%. Ofcourse in the morning they realized its old news.

So, now its mostly tracking Nasdaq.

But, without that big drop in Nasdaq, Tesla may not have divided that much.

Old news which can be spun to neutral or negative. Meanwhile bloomberg article retweeted by Musk does not populate to headline articles on most of my stock feeds and sources...

 

[Tslynk67]

Like if the FBI hauled Trump off in handcuffs during his public address tonight?

You call that a negative?

 

[EVNow]

My guess is that:

• If the Q4 numbers are good (i.e. better than Q3) then the Q4 earnings report might be released on January 30th (Wednesday), announced on the 28th-29th (Monday-Tuesday).
• If there's some really big negative macro event in the week before, overshadowing the good results, they might delay it by a week to February 6 (Wednesday).

In the past Tesla has mostly released earnings in the first week on Wednesday. They usually announce the date 2 weeks before earnings - on Wednesday aftermarket or Thursday.

If they follow this pattern - they would announce the date on 23rd and have the call on 6th.

I think last quarter was an anomaly - not only because of first real profitable quarter, but also because of the take private tweet and the aftermath. They announced the date soon after Musk settled the case and had the earnings the same week.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This looks like shorts capping to me - keeping the SP just in the red while NASDAQ rises, then letting it drop when NASDAS drops...

Yep, and on super low volume. Volume for the day is high-ish, but mostly the huge spike of buys on open. Rest of the day has been tiny.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yep, and on super low volume. Volume for the day is high-ish, but mostly the huge spike of buys on open. Rest of the day has been tiny.

Yes, very easily manipulated at this point in time.

I struggle to believe the rise and subsequent selling this morning were based on Ellison's Q3 form showing he had 3m shares, if that's really the case then I'm shocked at how deeply uninformed people must be...

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

This looks like shorts capping to me - keeping the SP just in the red while NASDAQ rises, then letting it drop when NASDAS drops...

i think its more of a resistance , i dont think there is much incentive to cap at 335. they should save the ammo for the coming 350.

 

[lklundin]

China isn't stupid. They don't have much in the way of domestic energy sources. Solar/electric will do a lot to make them more viable on the global stage. (which may or may not be bad for us)

China has mountains of coal. The problem is that burning it makes their cites uninhabitable from smog.

Also, (to be pedantic) China has plenty of sun and wind (although not exactly where it is needed, so they are building ultra-high-voltage power lines).