Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

If jan 30th is ER

Then today's stock price drop marks my first entry point when Tuesday comes. Unforrunately, i was already asleep when it reached - 12%. But if Monday comes, I'd sell my first batch of puts. The next entry point is probably if my alert wakes me up from 290

 

[elasalle]

OT.
If most of vehicles going to Europe and that too from San Fran Docks, does it mean there isn't much work for the transport companies just purchased?

Does Tesla use a East Coast Port to ship S/X to Europe. 3-5 days vehicles could be in East Coast port, where as going around panama canal just to be back near Florida seems to take 2-3 times longer?

Looks like bulk of VINs registered in Jan are all AWD ..

 

[anthonyj]

This is a surprise announcement. It's very early for Q4.

I know, I know. But last time was a 45 hour notice. Like a nuclear weapon

 

[Ulmo]

Volume matters in the 'does is the stock price leading options prices or the other way around' chicken-and-egg question.

Just look at the per expiry week open interest:

2019/Jan/18:  PUTs:   622,509 ; CALLs:   266,647   # rest is from today

Did they have early access to the email?

 

[Causalien]

Anybody got any guess on why q1 will be barely net positive income? Could elon mean CFF in the cash flow barely positive or is he talking about something that makes eps in income statement barely positive?

 

[oneday]

Just got off the mountain. One of the best days of skiing I’ve had in years.

I foolishly gambled and let some calls expire worthless today due to the big drop, they were well in the money all week and only reason I didn’t sell was greed. Really didn’t see that coming. Having owned Tesla shares since 2014 I should really have wised up by now. Tesla volatility is no joke. Win some, lose some I guess.

I’m going to reposition at the beginning of next week. Not sure how yet... but I need to gamble less so I’ll deleverage some.

I still strongly feel Tesla is the most undervalued stock I know of. I believe in the mission. And think they are executing better than anyone else could.

Look forward to earnings report, the call and very much to guidance for q1 and beyond.

 

[Ulmo]

So I'm always confident to make predictions, except about the future. I'm 99% sure $TSLA will close somewhere between $024 and $420 today.

You win!

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla drastically increases Supercharger prices around the world

Referral going away, layoffs, supercharger price increase...

This is the work of Larry Joseph Ellison. Elon is listening to him. Hope you guys like your bear steak cooked well-done

 

[Ulmo]

Another big manpower cut? this is not normal behavior for a company in fast growth mode with lots of customer service needs.

Where have you been?

Tesla already has been growing. Right now they're producing, and will go back to growing later.

 

[Starno]

Tesla drastically increases Supercharger prices around the world

Referral going away, layoffs, supercharger price increase...

This is the work of Larry Joseph Ellison. Elon is listening to him. Hope you guys like your bear steak cooked well-done

Not so sure it comes from Larry. It's just that now because the hardest part of the production ramp has been pretty much achieved. Now they simply shift their focus to prepare the field for the more affordable Model 3.

 

[generalenthu]

So I'm 100% sure you are now relieved that European homologation for the Model 3 has been received today, that mechanic's liens were a blown-up nothingburger and that Tesla's negative GAAP working capital enabled profitability, right?

Any other concern trolling topics I forgot about?

Are you still worried about the fake cranes in Shanghai perhaps?

You forgot the paint shop. Some shorts believe Tesla is capped at ~250k vehicles per year. That's what they're estimating for 2019. See the latest model attached from a hedge fund guy, who is short TSLA based on this thesis. Valuetrap13 on twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Not so sure it comes from Larry. It's just that now because the hardest part of the production ramp has been pretty much achieved. Now they simply shift their focus to prepare the field for the more affordable Model 3.

I just hope that this increase in Supercharger profitability funds a mass Supercharger expansion. The goal was to make the expansion self-funding. Hopefully this will do it.

 

[SebastianR]

You forgot the paint shop. Some shorts believe Tesla is capped at ~250k vehicles per year. That's what they're estimating for 2019. See the latest model attached from a hedge fund guy, who is short TSLA based on this thesis. Valuetrap13 on twitter

How does that even make sense?!? Shorts are funny...

 

[bonnie]

You forgot the paint shop. Some shorts believe Tesla is capped at ~250k vehicles per year. That's what they're estimating for 2019. See the latest model attached from a hedge fund guy, who is short TSLA based on this thesis. Valuetrap13 on twitter

Pretty sure they can build another paint shop (or two). That's not a real constraint.

 

[EVNow]

Jan 18,2019
Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results and Webcast
PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 18, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31st, 2018 after market close on Wednesday, January 30th, 2019. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2018 Update Letter, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

Wow - Tuesday is going to be crazy.

Won't be surprised if the SP climbs up quickly or if there are wild swings.

We have the govt shutdown (and emergency declaration) and now this announcement. Besides, 3 day weekend is probably long enough for the market to forget all about the Friday letter. I've barely started buying calls for Q4 ER

What are your guesses for market action on Tuesday ? High, Low & closing price ? We should start a poll.

BTW, after ER will also be wild. We already have the bad news out of the way - but Wall St will still declare a "miss".

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wow - Tuesday is going to be crazy.

Won't be surprised if the SP climbs up quickly or if there are wild swings.

We have the govt shutdown (and emergency declaration) and now this announcement. Besides, 3 day weekend is probably long enough for the market to forget all about the Friday letter. I've barely started buying calls for Q4 ER

What are your guesses for market action on Tuesday ? High, Low & closing price ? We should start a poll.

BTW, after ER will also be wild. We already have the bad news out of the way - but Wall St will still declare a "miss".

My thoughts? Buckle up.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla drastically increases Supercharger prices around the world

Referral going away, layoffs, supercharger price increase...

This is the work of Larry Joseph Ellison. Elon is listening to him. Hope you guys like your bear steak cooked well-done

Bad Headline. Looks like a fairer way of pricing than before.

After all if the costs differ, shouldn't their price differ as well ?

Officially, Tesla is moving away from its per state/region pricing structure to implement a per station pricing structure in order to get more comprehensive prices based on local electricity rates and demand charges.

 

[M3Rider]

Jan 18,2019
Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results and Webcast
PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 18, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31st, 2018 after market close on Wednesday, January 30th, 2019. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2018 Update Letter, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

Now, that creates some cognitive dissonance.

An early $TSLA ER is bullish and hints at good results, as was the argument of many when early Q3 results were announced.

But we were just told Q4 is less than Q3 and something unknown is to happen in Q1 to wipe out profits. That last part is worrying me in the sense that it can negatively affect the sentiment going into Q4 ER and after. Can something nice be said about Q1?

 

[EVNow]

January 30th is really early for a Q4 ER.

Yes, slightly. I was expecting on 6th - with the date announced on 23rd. I think Tesla was compelled to make an earlier announcement because of today's price action - and the fact that entire Feb's SP is taken into account for conversion decision of March bonds.

 

[RobStark]

The longer you wait to fire someone, the longer it has been since you should have fired them.
-Elon Musk

I think Elon plagiarized Yogi Berra.