Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

#Tesla registered 144 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. ~45% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 251059.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

QTD (1/1 - 3/31)
57,503
..in January only!

That is all well and good, but the best information that we have at this point is that GF1 is putting Model 3 battery packs out at a pace of ~6,000/week. And you can't make a Model 3 without a battery... (And they have limited capacity to store unused packs.)

 

[gene]

Bjørn Nyland just did a very controlled Model 3 efficiency comparison with many different variants, plus a Bolt, an Ioniq, and a Model S:

He was blown away by how efficient the Model 3 is (he'd been sort of pooh-poohing it since a bad test run on an early-model variant with two occupants and 19" wheels and winter tyres). He also had an unusually poor supercharger rate back then. It's been nice watching Bjørn go from Model 3-ambivalent to Model 3-excited over the past several livestreams - right as it starts being sold in Europe. Lots of people listen to him when it comes to EV information.

I have 12,000 miles on my Model 3 RWD, 18" Aero's. Total lifetime consumption is 220 wh/mile.

 

[Smokey4141]

In 15 years, when EVs are the only type of cars for sale, Tesla will be around. Not making cars. But supplying batteries for 10s of millions of cars. Autopilot and other tech will be leased out. You’ll all see.

Or, anyone can just buy batteries from Panasonic.... Now, or in the future....
Just as Tesla does now...
You know that, right?

 

[anthonyj]

This time I'm more afraid of the SP running up before I can buy the calls than of it going below $300. We have just 7 trading days before ER. Why would anyone want to sell the stock below $300 at this point - even shorts ?

Honestly, this might be unpopular opinion but I think people might sell because they are expecting to get back in at an even lower price. I think even the long term investors are starting to think this way. The herd is recognizing the chart pattern and the swings are becoming a self-fulfilled prophecy.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Or, anyone can just buy batteries from Panasonic.... Now, or in the future....
Just as Tesla does now...
You know that, right?

...sort of. Tesla isn’t just throwing off-the-shelf batteries anyone can buy from Panasonic in their cars. The batteries are a collaboration between the two companies.

 

[dondy]

So you don't refute that e-tron will be able to charge more cheaply per kWh at higher kW stations, where available.

Audi is not going to provide free charging.
Offered prices are more expensive than in SC.Period.

Power-train in audi is of the same origin as in I-Pace with the same characteristics. Period.

You don't have even basic idea how charging of EV works, your calculations are deranged.
Go ride first an EV.

P.S. "Dramatic" sells of I-Pace in the Netherlands are fake. These are sells to the dealerships to get dutch registration before the deadline, the real numbers are much smaller and there are already returns because of abysmal range (150km reported in dutch traffic). Just wait and see.

 

[anthonyj]

Or, anyone can just buy batteries from Panasonic.... Now, or in the future....
Just as Tesla does now...
You know that, right?

Gigglefactory is running at full production, and produces >50% of the worlds batteries. How will they be able to supply more than they can make? I don’t see other auto manufacturers with their own gigglefactories

 

[printf42]

Are you suspecting these cars missed the boat ?

I am suspecting there’s another boat, 8 more in fact.

 

[printf42]

Do they have other cars on the ship already? It wouldn't make sense to send a half full ship and then load another half full ship 5 days later, and have another ship coming in 3 days after that. I don't know the answer, but if they are not ride sharing with another mfr, they should be shipping more than 2000 cars.

Most likely they are sharing the ride, and don’t want to put all the eggs in one basket, maybe gets lower insurance rate who knows.

 

[avoigt]

Audi is not going to provide free charging.
Offered prices are more expensive than in SC.Period.

Power-train in audi is of the same origin as in I-Pace with the same characteristics. Period.

You don't have even basic idea how charging of EV works, your calculations are deranged.
Go ride first an EV.

P.S. "Dramatic" sells of I-Pace in the Netherlands are fake. These are sells to the dealerships to get dutch registration before the deadline, the real numbers are much smaller and there are already returns because of abysmal range (150km reported in dutch traffic). Just wait and see.

Can you elaborate on your P.S. note which is an interesting information.

Any source for that?

 

[humbaba]

I have 12,000 miles on my Model 3 RWD, 18" Aero's. Total lifetime consumption is 220 wh/mile.

I'm curious: how do you get that figure? In the Tesla I'm only seeing ability to go back last 30 miles -- I'd love to be able to track consumption over longer periods of time.

 

[gene]

I'm curious: how do you get that figure? In the Tesla I'm only seeing ability to go back last 30 miles -- I'd love to be able to track consumption over longer periods of time.

I have two trip odometers. If I leave one never reset since the car was new, then it reads consumption since the car was new. I had the same on my Model S which was 306 watts/mile with 90,000 miles on the car. I actually drive quite briskly around town and love to show off the acceleration at green lights. But on the fwy I stay around speed limit of 65 to 70.

 

[kcveins]

I have two trip odometers. If I leave one never reset since the car was new, then it reads consumption since the car was new. I had the same on my Model S which was 306 watts/mile with 90,000 miles on the car. I actually drive quite briskly around town and love to show off the acceleration at green lights. But on the fwy I stay around speed limit of 65 to 70.

That's the advantage of being in SoCal. I have an average of 318 watts/mile over 121,000 blissful miles in my Model S here in Chicago

 

[humbaba]

I have two trip odometers. If I leave one never reset since the car was new, then it reads consumption since the car was new. I had the same on my Model S which was 306 watts/mile with 90,000 miles on the car. I actually drive quite briskly around town and love to show off the acceleration at green lights. But on the fwy I stay around speed limit of 65 to 70.

Thanks. I'm still puzzled: your signature says your Model S was sold and that you have three M3's. Mine is also an M3 -- though its a mid-range I didn't think there'd be an interface difference between the two?

Anyway, I just double checked and there are no trip odometers I can find, other than in "Consumption" there's a trip tab that only shows the current trip. No A/B, no life time. There's the odometer that shows total miles on the car, but nothing I can find to show the energy consumed for it.

I may be missing something obvious, but I can't find anything -- that's why I'm asking...

 

[skitown]

Thanks. I'm still puzzled: your signature says your Model S was sold and that you have three M3's. Mine is also an M3 -- though its a mid-range I didn't think there'd be an interface difference between the two?

Anyway, I just double checked and there are no trip odometers I can find, other than in "Consumption" there's a trip tab that only shows the current trip. No A/B, no life time. There's the odometer that shows total miles on the car, but nothing I can find to show the energy consumed for it.

I may be missing something obvious, but I can't find anything -- that's why I'm asking...

See page 4/5 of the manual.

https://www.tesla.com/content/dam/tesla/Ownership/Own/Model 3 Owners Manual.pdf

Trips. You can display distance driven, energy usage and energy efficiency starting at any time, or since Model 3 was last charged. You can also display this information for up to two trips. Touch ... in the top right corner of a trip to rename or reset a trip.

edit: this info is in the “cards” area of your touchscreen.

 

[AudubonB]

I have an idea. Free cruise to Europe for 10 lucky people. Must be willing to detail ten Teslas per day.

This was written in jest, and it's funny. HOWEVER -

I was thinking seriously along similar lines. For a company that likes to think outside the box, and make efficient its production profile, there is a very large gap that needs to be filled.

The multi-week trip from Port of SF to Europe...Australasia...Latin America... affords the innovative auto manufacturer uninterrupted time to work on its product. Now, under normal circumstances "Summon" can not be activated - there neither is enough room between the rows of cars for one to be moved; in fact, no tie-downs can be accessed. Nevertheless, I have come up with ways in which this very feature could indeed be utilized.
Although I very, very strongly suspect these auto transports are not designed to accommodate, for example, auto-washing...nor should they for traditional manufacturers*!...it would be a trivial matter to design them so that one could do just that in each of the decks.

*: If your car is heading to some dealer's lot, it might sit there for many weeks, getting dirtier all the time. No reason to wash it prior to customer pick up. Not Tesla's MO.

 

[Smokey4141]

...sort of. Tesla isn’t just throwing off-the-shelf batteries anyone can buy from Panasonic in their cars. The batteries are a collaboration between the two companies.

And I agree with you.... But Panasonic is certainly willing to sell their battery technology - along with things they learn along the way - to anyone else...

I was responding to the poster that said that ~Tesla~ will be selling batteries, and I'm just saying it's a "stretch" to think that...

 

[KarenRei]

That's the advantage of being in SoCal. I have an average of 318 watts/mile over 121,000 blissful miles in my Model S here in Chicago

Model S is an entirely different beast. Big energy consumer. It handily lost Bjørn's efficiency comparison.

 

[anthonyj]

Not FUD, just facts. I think this is actually a good thing. Use that money to build more stations. Nobody should be using superchargers as their only charging source. And I get free lifetime supercharging so it’s all good

 

[JRP3]

Battery longevity at different C rate is also a problem. If we assume that audi is just using commodity lithium ion battery supplier for their batteries, they will likely see rapid deterioration at high C rate.

As I've mentioned in the past different cell chemistry and/or different cell construction can charge at higher C rates, with a trade off in energy density.