RobStark
Well-Known Member
AFAIK CCS does not allow adapters.
European Model 3s are getting CCS only ports and European superchargers are adding CCS in addition to Tesla standard.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
AFAIK CCS does not allow adapters.
European Model 3s are getting CCS only ports and European superchargers are adding CCS in addition to Tesla standard.
Newbie questions: Is the opening price the after hours price? How much chance that the price decreases from there or does after hours price reflect investor sentiment? I'm trying to work out when and how to buy Tuesday. Might a simple market order get the lowest price if it's straight up after open?
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
So basically you are suggesting the Tesla should yield their advantage in supercharger coverage to create a dependency on third parties to provide coverage? Not only does that not sound like anything Tesla would do, it strikes me as a terrible idea.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for interoperability, but a significant advantage that Tesla has is that they have a supercharger network that supports the cars they sell. In an ideal world a Tesla would be able to use these third party superchargers as you suggest, but unless and until superchargers become utterly commonplace or vehicle ranges render them superfluous it is in Tesla's (and Tesla's customer's) best interest to maintain and expand the supercharger network.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
After hours can be quite volatile due to low volume. Up, down, all around. Its foolish to think that this pricing reflects investor sentiment when most investors are neither buying nor selling.
Where the pre-market price is at when the market opens is the price when the market opens. It doesn't matter what the price was at previous trading day close, only what its at when the market opens. There is usually a large spike in trades at open which can immediately drive the price up or down quite a bit, but after that -- in general -- more volume means fewer wild swings.
[edited to clarify: a large buy order (or a large sell order) can cause a spike in the relevant direction -- but when volume is the result of many individual orders the changes tend to be smoother.]
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
To me the smell of petrol, smells like death. Sorry for your loss
Where is Audi's Gigafactory? They are not serious yet. Maybe when their executives are out of prison they will start building one
I've got it, a prison/gigafactory
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Hey guys I have been reading the forum for long time, I don't post often but enjoy being here. I was going through some delivery numbers and I found something that I cannot figure out. So my question is:
I have the following numbers from delivery reports right after the quarter ended.
I assume that there was no inventory for M3 at the end of Q1, so the vehicles in transit to Q2 were 2040
Q2 production 28578+2040=30618- 18440 (deliveredQ2)=12178 -11166(in transit intoQ3)=1012 missing(or inventory)
For Q3 we have 11166(transit)+ 53239(produced)=64405-55840(delivered)=8565-8048(transit into Q4) =517 missing(or inventory)
Q4 would like this 61394(produced) +8048= 69442-63150(delivered)=6292- 1010(in transit)= 5282 missing?
So for Q1+Q2+Q3=6811 missing or inventory Can someone can tell me where my math is wrong cause if I am right means we have over 6k in inventory only m3. But we had a report that at the end of the year report on electrek said we had about 3k inventory between S/3/X. If I do the same math for S and X I get almost 4k so is that possible to have 10k in inventory at the end of the year.
I have the following numbers from delivery reports right after the quarter ended.
I assume that there was no inventory for M3 at the end of Q1, so the vehicles in transit to Q2 were 2040
Q2 production 28578+2040=30618- 18440 (deliveredQ2)=12178 -11166(in transit intoQ3)=1012 missing(or inventory)
For Q3 we have 11166(transit)+ 53239(produced)=64405-55840(delivered)=8565-8048(transit into Q4) =517 missing(or inventory)
Q4 would like this 61394(produced) +8048= 69442-63150(delivered)=6292- 1010(in transit)= 5282 missing?
So for Q1+Q2+Q3=6811 missing or inventory Can someone can tell me where my math is wrong cause if I am right means we have over 6k in inventory only m3. But we had a report that at the end of the year report on electrek said we had about 3k inventory between S/3/X. If I do the same math for S and X I get almost 4k so is that possible to have 10k in inventory at the end of the year.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Refined Graphene: A Cool Huawei Feature
Will Tesla announce first FIRST application of graphene in batteries during 2020?
Will Tesla announce first FIRST application of graphene in batteries during 2020?
As a research ecologist that works in the field of climate change, i can assure you there's an awful lot of precise, repeatable, scientific measurements and datasets supporting the fact that the climate is changing at a rate that's unprecedented during the ~200k years when the modern human species (H. sapiens) have trod the Earth (& that the industrial age & greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the large majority of the climate warming that's been observed over the last 100 years). If one or several political parties put their collective heads in the sand & choose to ignore those facts for short-term political gains, then that's an unconscionable shame to put it as mildly as I can. But that's also the beauty of the many win-win's & vast synergies Tesla creates. One can still choose to believe it's all a hoax spun up by the global elite & still love the company, the cars, & energy products because of cleaner air, safer means of transporting you & your loved ones, lower lifetime costs, local power production, cool technology, fun to drive, & job & economic growth where-ever new GFs & service centers sprout up. Lots of stuff there for humans of all political persuasions & belief systems to get behind & some of us will also hope (& be monitoring) along the way that the 900 pound climate gorilla thing can be semi-tamed & stabilized later this century so that it continues providing the benign environment our species has flourished in. The faster Tesla and other green tech ramps, the better on all fronts! OT
Sudre
Active Member
Probably a lot of things could add up to a conclusion.
Loaners, Test drive cars, Test cars, Inventory, arrive at store but not picked up yet.
Oh and the shorts favorite. Put on a boat and dumped in the ocean cars.
Put this statement from the VW Board Chairman Pösch in context with the Mail from Elon:
"The today price level cannot be kept when cars are equipped with electric drive trains (...) therefore in the small car segment a price increase for this cars is inevitable".
VW-Aufsichtsratschef warnt: Kleinwagen werden erheblich teurer
Translated that sounds to me like VW does not intend to work or believe in cost improvements like Tesla does to bring low cost EVs to market for the smaller price point but instead intends to increase the overall prices in that segment asking the consumer to pay more versus an ICE.
Put this into context with Elons letter to improve costs further to bring costs for the 3 further down.
"The ID will be available starting with € 30k but the consumer needs to accept some shortages" The range is now only between 300 - 400 km he said. In the future people with lower income have to ask themselves if they still will be able to afford a car for their own.
In orger to comply with the carbon emission regulations about € 3k additional material costs per car apply.
He also said , 'there is not alternative to EVs. VW will massively invest in battery production.' So far the company has a pilot plant for battery production.
"The today price level cannot be kept when cars are equipped with electric drive trains (...) therefore in the small car segment a price increase for this cars is inevitable".
VW-Aufsichtsratschef warnt: Kleinwagen werden erheblich teurer
Translated that sounds to me like VW does not intend to work or believe in cost improvements like Tesla does to bring low cost EVs to market for the smaller price point but instead intends to increase the overall prices in that segment asking the consumer to pay more versus an ICE.
Put this into context with Elons letter to improve costs further to bring costs for the 3 further down.
"The ID will be available starting with € 30k but the consumer needs to accept some shortages" The range is now only between 300 - 400 km he said. In the future people with lower income have to ask themselves if they still will be able to afford a car for their own.
In orger to comply with the carbon emission regulations about € 3k additional material costs per car apply.
He also said , 'there is not alternative to EVs. VW will massively invest in battery production.' So far the company has a pilot plant for battery production.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So 30k EUR is $34.5k.
Note that "300-400 km" is 185-248 miles, centered around 350 km / 220 miles, which is the Model 3 Standard Range.
Does VW intend to go head on with Tesla on pricing and range, but with a smaller, less safe car, and no AP/FSD hardware? (No radar I assume.)
Also, it's quite possible that as economies of scale improve, Tesla might be able to reduce the entry price to below $35k: $33k, $32k, putting the squeeze on VW.
Sean Wagner
Member
Price sensitivity in the European small car segment is very significant - Diesels have had a harder time there because they cost 1000+ EUR more, and that will feed right through into diminished demand.
Of note: the coming VW ID is a class or two above, depending on the yardstick [interior or exterior]. Also of note that reality is dawning on the folks in Wolfsburg - they won't come out of the gate leagues ahead of those upstart Californians. Then again, they don't have to as long as they're ahead of the classic car club.
Of note: the coming VW ID is a class or two above, depending on the yardstick [interior or exterior]. Also of note that reality is dawning on the folks in Wolfsburg - they won't come out of the gate leagues ahead of those upstart Californians. Then again, they don't have to as long as they're ahead of the classic car club.
Re working *in* the ship: how much time would Tesla save if they had a crew onboard? Could be worth it?
My brother did a trip from Barcelona to New York in a cargo ship for "fun", had plenty of time for his writing and drawing, but of course is not that an easy life, and you can't always work (it depends by the sea).
I'm don't know, for example, if cars are fixed to the deck for safety -storms in the ocean are something to be afraid of.
Tesla could upgrade crew living conditions with a better cook, better food, and customizing the rooms.
I'm sure @KarenRei knows a lot about ships, she could tell us if this is feasible or just a naive dream.
My brother did a trip from Barcelona to New York in a cargo ship for "fun", had plenty of time for his writing and drawing, but of course is not that an easy life, and you can't always work (it depends by the sea).
I'm don't know, for example, if cars are fixed to the deck for safety -storms in the ocean are something to be afraid of.
Tesla could upgrade crew living conditions with a better cook, better food, and customizing the rooms.
I'm sure @KarenRei knows a lot about ships, she could tell us if this is feasible or just a naive dream.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So here's a problem I see for VW: higher class models tend to generate a disproportionate fraction of cash and profits. By positioning the I.D. right above the compact segment VW risks cannibalizing all their mid and high end models. They could end up generating losses pretty quickly, not because their EVs are necessarily unprofitable, but because their ICE premium market might collapse faster. If we look at BMW and Mercedes sales in the U.S. it doesn't take much to lose market share.
This is going to be a grand experiment: VW is the first top tier ICE OEM who cannibalizes their own ICE offerings with honest, properly designed, good looking EVs. (Which the I.D. tries to be.)
If VW manages to convert to EVs successfully, then this could be a model for the rest.
I'm very curious how this is going to play out.
From an efficency or cost point of view, anything that could be done to a car would be better off happening in a factory before shipment. Maybe SW updates, but you would not want to risk an issue and making the car undrivable.
This may an urban legend: There was a ship that loaded lumber at one port and off loaded furniture at another. I think that was an attempt to get around tariffs/ dutys.
We also should remember that there are reservations for currently unserved countries that may or may not be included in other data; my own reservation for Brazil also refers to my US address when both are in my profile. An Eastern European colleague told me the same thing is in his, also US in his case. I have no idea at all how many of these there are. We also have all the RHD countries, with U.K., Japan and Australia likely to be the largest ones. Does anybody have semi-reliable estimates of reservation numbers for these countries? Were we able to do that we would have a much more robust idea of pent-up demand for SR in presently served markets.On my numbers Tesla finished Q4 with 348k reservations and still has 143k in the US.
Remaining US reservations are likely mostly waiting for non premium interior, short range and lease options. There are also likely some waiting for their current leases to finish/get finances together to purchase currently available 3 options.
On these numbers: 597k total gross reservations, 79k deliveries to non reservation holders, 68k deliveries to reservation holders, 180k total cancellations.
In the US this is: 285k gross reservations, 75k deliveries to non reservation holders, 65k deliveries to reservation holders, 117k total cancellations.
This means c.70% of non cancelled US reservation holders are still waiting to order.
Key information used:
Key assumptions used:
- 455k net and 518k gross at the start of August 2017.
- Q4 and Q1 net reservation count broadly stable QoQ. Q1 count >450k.
- Q2 net reservation count c.420k.
- As of 24-Oct-18, <20% of the 455k Aug-17 reservations had cancelled.
- >75% of Q4 Model 3 orders came from non reservation holders
- At Aug-17 c.55% of reservations were from the US. (Broadly in-line with 2016 and 2017 volume mix)
- c.59% of Q3 deliveries and c.73% of Q4 deliveries were to non reservation holders. This is using Troy's model 3 tracker survey data, with a different sample rate for reservation vs non reservation holders. This method predicted Tesla's >75% Q4 orders disclosure, so I think these are reasonable assumptions.
- 5% of deliveries have been to Canada
- c.20% increase in US cancellation rate QoQ in Q4 with max tax credit missed for lower priced options. (This number could be higher, but I'd have thought most people would have known this already and cancelled before Oct-24)
Anyway personally I think there is no global M3 saturation prospect for at least three years. By then MY will do it by itself, in all probability.
That's reassuring, I was starting to imagine this:
https://a1cf74336522e87f135f-2f21ac...m/images/characters/p-wallE-Elissa-Knight.jpg
Attachments
Also, without a formal handover, there would be an insurance issue. But the formal handover would require so much Tesla staff that they might as well offload the cars themselves. Also, a handover on board would delay the off-loading, incurring costs from the shipping company and/or port.
Matching 2k cars on difference car decks with as many anxious drivers seems like a difficult problem, the cars would need to leave in some order so a lot of discipline would be needed from the new owners.
Also, the port area is surely restricted, so paper work would be needed for that.
I think a Tesla port outlet would come at a (much) later stage.
You are likely to make a penny and lose a dollar.
The thing is that there is no knowing when the SP is at a peak/bottom. Some time last year it looked like the SP was bouncing up and down around 360$, but during January you would have had to sell at much lower prices to make a profitable swing trade - all while wondering when the SP will shoot up, leaving you behind with some cash that you just got from a sale at a now-lousy price.
Better you than me.
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