Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

I thought those were barrel staves.

 

[Krugerrand]

I do.

The real question is if you also wear a belt.

 

[XHabjab]

There is no such loyalty like companies used to have for employees anymore. That's why we younger folks just leave. The company will cut you in a heartbeat.

The context was that @RobStark made a blanket statement claiming that

• everybody only cared about their job and
• nobody cared about the company's goals or interests.

Ummm my response was here. His statement was here.
Perhaps true in some to many cases; not true in all cases.
... and the larger context was union versus non-union. There are further points that can be made there but I'll leave it at that.

My experience has been that if you treat your colleagues and bosses well, they treat you well. Not known as strengths in a union organization.

 

[AZRI11]

I love this post but hate the facts. When I switched from my beloved P85D I was dismayed by the shoddy delivery mess. The car itself was amazing, although the badging has not yet appeared. Sadly, my car was damaged in an accident caused by an inept driver. I was a passenger seeing it in slow motion but helpless. That was on Sept 14 last year. The car has been in a body shop ever since, with multiple parts requiring multiple replacements because of Tesla errors and delays. they cannot get it right and even are very difficult to reach, Executive Escalation on this subject now ignored.

To my knowledge six reservations have not yet been made into orders because of this. One of those just bought an I-Pace instead. I remain a bull, but I am convinced that sad stories such as this are causing orders to be deferred and reservations cancelled. I remain hopeful that Tesla will fix this. If Tesla repeats this stupidity in Germany and/or Japan it might just be terminal. Right now I am a very worried bull. All of Tesla must know, but no actions seems to be being taken to fix the delivery/service/parts messes.

Parts distribution is backlogged. I also had an accident with my Model 3. Car was driveable waited two weeks for parts. Unfortunately body shop broke or damaged speaker wire harness and taillight wire harness, also damaged chrome around rear door. ETA for additional parts Feb 15th at the earliest. I can drive my car, they spliced some wires together owner of body shop was great despite broken wire harnesses. A Model X was in the shop, hit a deer a month after having car repaired for hitting another deer on the same road, same winding curve. OUCH.

 

[RobStark]

Stop. Nobody gets same day fender let alone thinks about it. It’s only on some people’s mind because Tesla is under a microscope. Plenty of others have dealt with bodywork delays for other makes of cars.

You need to stop defending the undefensible.

Walk into any dealer,go to their parts department and ask for a fender on a less than 10 year old model.

Good chance they have it in stock or a nearby dealer has it in stock. And they can get it that day.

At least that is the case in Los Angeles, maybe rural flyover country it is different.

Yes, nobody thinks about it because it is never an issue. They have *sugar* in stock.

If you need an obscure part on a 25 year old Ferrari, good chance there is a delay.

Then there are delays that is the insurance company's fault and the body shop company's fault.

Parts not available for commonly replaced parts in accidents is not a problem for any mainstream brands or bigger luxury brands.

Need a fender for a Spyker , that might be a problem.

Tesla sold 245k cars last year. It should be in the same league as Volvo.

 

[RobStark]

The context was that @RobStark made a blanket statement claiming that

• everybody only cared about their job and
• nobody cared about the company's goals or interests.

Ummm my response was here. His statement was here.
Perhaps true in some to many cases; not true in all cases.
... and the larger context was union versus non-union. There are further points that can be made there but I'll leave it at that.

My experience has been that if you treat your colleagues and bosses well, they treat you well. Not known as strengths in a union organization.

I said employees care about their jobs not the company's needs.

No every single person at Tesla. I try not to write thesis with all common sense disclaimers, because that is stupid and time consuming.

The vast majority of employees at Tesla care far more about their job than the company's needs.

Most people don't chose martyrdom.

That is just plain human nature.

If Tesla continues to cull ~7% of employees every ~6 months they are inviting organized labor in.

 

[S3XY]

Its a naive dream. Check YouTube for video’s of roro ship loading. Cars are packed densely and secured. It’s impossible to do any work on them.

Impossible you say? I think not.

 

[S3XY]

EU prices include VAT.
EU ranges are WLTP (or sometimes still, embarassingly, NEDC!), which is more optimistic than EPA combined.
Also, remember that this is VW we're talking about here. The heart of Dieselgate. A company that always talks big about the future without delivering. Expect tricks, hype, and bait & switch. That doesn't by any means mean "discount them" - they're definitely making a big EV push. But don't take everything they say at face value.

Musk stated last August that they could make a $25k Tesla in 3 years. Of course, one must account for a Musk Time Dilation Factor

Point of note, however: check out the amount VW plans to spend on battery purchases over the next 5 years, and consider that they're likely to be backloaded (e.g. fewer in the short term, more in the long term). And consider that their battery purchases also go to hybrids and PHEVs. It works out to them making something like 1,6M EVs/year 3 to 3 1/2 years from now, by my calculations. Now compare to Tesla. Tesla estimates global Model 3 sales at 500k/yr (w/o ads) / 700k/yr (w/ads) and Model Y sales at 700k/1000k per year. Then add in S, X, Semi, Pickup, Roadster.... let alone if Tesla does actually introduce a lower-end-than-Model-3 car in a few years....

VW acts like they're being extremely ambitious with their production targets, but they're really not. Ambitious compared to "mainstream" automakers, sure, but not compared to Tesla.

I think he was referring to being able to profitably (i.e. cost reductions would allow for) make a $25k in 3 years, not that they would or plan to make one in 3 years.

 

[RobStark]

My post was obviously in jest.However I think the number of people when buying a new car that think about fender repair is pretty damn small.

Nobody thinks about it because it is has never a problem.

Not at Toyota or Lexus. Not at Honda or Acura. Not at Volkswagen or Audi.

If Tesla establishes the reputation with mainstream buyers that if you get into a fender bender you will need to arrange for alternate transportation for the next 2-6 months that will be a problem.

Early adopters, many of whom have an extra vehicle not needed every single day, may not complain loudly or swear off Tesla.

For people that only have one car,and are replacing their Prius with a Model 3, extremely long repair times will be an issue if not fixed.

 

[mongo]

Lunar eclipse is happening, night owls.

 

[Off Shore]

The real question is if you also wear a belt.

I do. (I'm a safety man.)

 

[S3XY]

Over the holidays my CA relatives with discretionary income told me they will not buy a Tesla 'because repairs take months.' As other posters have said, mainstream customers will not have the tolerance for perceived challenges that many previous customers had. Any campaign by Tesla to change their image should be preceded by fixing the problems.

A question. For areas where Tesla is not permitted to have a service center or additional SC's, like MI and upstate NY, could Tesla contract with a company, perhaps an existing retail chain, to provide this function, perhaps in addition to some other line of business? No vehicle sales. Is the obstacle a legal one (because of the contract does it run foul of the constraint on OEM's, or does it have to count as a 'dealer'?) or is the problem that it's inconsistent with vertical integration?

My understanding as per a mobile service tech I talked to is that NYS limits Sales Centers but not Service Centers. Of course he could be mistaken so take this with a grain of salt and consider it hearsay.

 

[Off Shore]

Not quite as far off topic:

xkcd

Mod: fixed link. --ggr

 

[RobStark]

Not quite as far off topic:

xkcd

Link doesn't work, for me at least.

 

[S3XY]

Exactly. It's the relative dip piece that those miss when asking why folks didn't buy the last time the stock was at a particular level. If it's dropped over several weeks and a lot of news, I may not add more. But when something that's clearly not valid bad news brings a significant overnight drop, then I buy some trading shares. It's basically free money.



Forget the one more thing. The minute Y reservations are opened, I submit my deposit. I'm quite sure there are at minimum many tens of thousands of other 3 owners in the same boat.

[raises hand]

 

[anthonyj]

What’s with all this talk about a lot of EU service centers closing shop and being delisted from the site? Seeing this on Mark Spiegels page, any truth to it?

 

[Fact Checking]

After setting the ER date - except for the last Q3, the SP hasn't moved much.

Tesla set their ER date very predictably for the past two years, except Q3'18 which was moved to a one week earlier date. Moving the earnings date earlier is generally associated with better results. (For any stock, not just Tesla.)

Hence the big price reaction for the Q3'18 date announcement and no big reaction for the other quarters.

Note that Q4'18 was announced one week earlier as well: Wall Street expectations were for February 6, date was set to January 30.

So in principle this should be bullish - but maybe this time it will be nullified by the weak guidance Elon released on the day before. It's also a possibility that the early earnings report signals profitability - but we know that already. So it's hard to tell.

 

[mbiver]

Maybe it can be sighted on of the Panama Canal webcams

Multimedia - PanCanal.com

Modell 3 has arrived in Switzreland.

 

[KarenRei]

Glovis Captain is in the canal Headed for the first set of locks.

ED: Emerging from the first lock.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

While it's hard to make "generalized" statements because everyone's use-case and configuration are different,0,31kWh/mi is a pretty pessimistic consumption figure. Some people will average that (particularly if they got the 20" wheels and like to drive fast ), but not most people.

But yes, the main point stands, which is that charging is generally AC, not DC. Fast charging is for road trips. And you're paying to support the infrastructure.

With a LR RWD w/ stock aero wheels (but the aero caps removed), and doing 80mph highway driving, and usually at least one hard launch per trip, sometimes more, in the "cool" weather ( 35~50F ) I have managed to average in the neighborhood of 300Wh/mi. In warmer weather (50~100F) but otherwise driving the same, I have averaged around 245Wh/mi.