Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Wow, Tesla is done. Def shorting now thank you!!!

The better question is how factory workers absorb nitrogen dioxide when they are not leaning against the walls?

 

[Fact Checking]

OT:

A while ago I made a crazy prediction that the SpaceX Starship would use an "active steam shield", evaporating water or methane through small holes on its metal skin and use it as a heat shield.

Today Popular Mechanics released an exclusive interview with Elon:

Elon Musk Interview: Why the Starship Is Built of Stainless Steel

"You flow either fuel or water in between the sandwich layer, and then you have micro-perforations on the outside—very tiny perforations—and you essentially bleed water, or you could bleed fuel, through the micro-perforations on the outside."​

On topic:

In hindsight I wish Elon had affirmed my Q4 profitability estimates instead.

​

 

[humbaba]

Which is all different than demand for the higher-optioned models steeply decreasing. The point is you simply don't know that, so to state it implies a negative that may well not be there.

There was initial "pent up demand" for Model 3's period... 300-400L paid reservations when the options and prices were unknown. Some fraction of that backlogged demand began to be filled once they started production. Add to that the steady-state new demand since production started.

Tesla has made somewhere ~170K M3's thus far. Say the initial pent up demand had 25% of folks wanting loaded cars. That could be upwards of 100K cars. They could have additionally have a steady-state demand for loaded M3 of 3,000/month for the last 18 moths, that's an additional 45K cars needed.

That means they would have already filled the backlog and exceeded the production requirements without demand having dropped at all.

Profitability is can be affected by lower average ASP's and additional spending to introduce differing models/options.

All of this reminds me of a conversation I had with an EV denier. He kept going on about how Tesla had not even been able to fill the 500k reservations for the M3 so they were impossible to get -- I think he said something about a five year wait list. When I told him that I had ordered and received mine in four weeks without any wait list he just wouldn't believe it.

Its really hard to say how many remaining reservations there are, or how many of those will ultimately result in sales. But at this point there is clearly demand. Even if the M3 "tops out" and "only" takes over the luxury sedan market -- those are things detractors would not admit as being possible just a short time ago. While I don't think a $35k SR would be enough to push into the top four sedans, both Toyota and Honda have been put on notice -- they better have an EV replacement for their sedans before Tesla does.

But there is a large amount of selective thinking going on. Someone here (I forget who) linked to Nissan challenges Tesla in massive shift to electric with 'complete reinterpretation' of the car which has some wonderful overlooking of Tesla.

Nissan was the first major automaker to launch a high-volume battery-electric vehicle and, since the Leaf hatchback came to market in 2011, it has become the world's best-selling BEV.

I love the phrasing, the reader is expected to believe that the Leaf is the world's best-selling BEV. Let's put things into perspective, shall we?

In 2018 the Leaf had global sales of ~90k while the M3 sales in the US were a measly 139k. I mean, obviously, Nissan is crushing it and Tesla doesn't stand a chance against "the world's best-selling BEV."

Oh, but there are ~320k Leafs sold to date, right? Yeah, and if you assume no growth in Tesla sales it will take two long years to reach that number of M3s.

But never fear, the fine folks at NBC are staying current, they know that someday the Leaf will face competition:

It has been losing momentum, however, as competitors like the Tesla Model 3 and Chevrolet Bolt EV have come to market.

I mean, its not like Leaf grew global sales from ~90k in 2017 to reach the ~47k for 2018, they are losing momentum for sure, unlike their competitors the M3 and the Bolt. I didn't find even poor numbers (like the ones for the Leaf cited above) as I don't have the time to dig too hard, but combining the US and Korean sales (which appear to be the bulk of it) they mustered ~23k for 2018 compared to the ~23k for 2017 -- that is a significant increase to be sure. I can see why the author mentioned the Bolt as a competitor to the Leaf.

But don't worry, Nissan has other contenders to worry about who might take away their crown of "worlds' best selling BEV". After all, we are told that:

But the Leaf also will be getting company in the coming years. Le Vot also announced in Detroit that Nissan will have eight all-electric models in its global fleet by 2022. Alliance partners Renault and Mitsubishi are bringing out four more. The Japanese maker alone is forecasting it will see about 1 million BEVs annually by mid-decade.

So there you have it, Nissan will finally have some competition starting around 2022 to 2025 and can't merely rest on their laurels.

/s

[edited: somehow I lost the tab that had better leaf numbers, updated above, src: Strong Nissan LEAF sales drive global EV momentum; further edited -- dang I lose track of dates faster than ... what were talking about?]

 

[Heimdallr]

It's really mean to call kids a troll just because they are short.

Bolt still outselling Model 3 by 278:1?

 

[keydiver]

So that is the service schedule for Model 3?
Only one question: It says to change the key fob battery every other year. How many Ethereums will that cost? As far as I have heard, the 3 is operated from your phone or from an rfid card.

My Model 3 has a key fob. My wife doesn't own a smartphone.

 

[anthonyj]

Since TSLA has always gone back up after these dips, I'm always curious why people sell here.
Why not just wait for the inevitable climb back up?

Because new people FOMO and buy high and then panic. Which makes me skeptical of it breaking ATH any time soon. Why would people buy $360+ if it’s just going to dump to the $300 magnet? It’s almost a self fulfilled prophecy at this point. Very frustrating

 

[bdy0627]

I was less aggressive than you with my option plays in the past, and yet I got burned pretty badly. Being here for few years, I've seen people lose everything, or a lot. Warnings usually don't work. Early on, I even warned TrendTrader007, who is a bit of a legend around here. He did really, really well in the beginning, continued pressing bets and got hurt quite badly couple of times*.

Anyhow, while I don't think it will be useful, my conscience requires me to point that this is very aggressive play, and you're amplifying short term trends; and while you can make out like a bandit, it could be very bad too. Elon doesn't care about short-term holders, and this is what your portfolio emphasizes. He really doesn't. Cost to roll will be very high, if SP is low at any date, but especially towards expiration date.
Signing out, and I'll never repeat this again (to you).

*I did see some people catch and control risk quite well and while at times unpleasant, ride waves apparently quite well, like @bdy0627, but that seems to be an exception, rather than the rule.

I have to say that I did very well for about 10 dips out of perhaps 12. I got hit really hard during the privatization tweet period. I did not manage things well over that time at all. I became over-leveraged and my time eventually ran out. I kept rolling calls through August/September/October, until I could roll no more. It was absolutely gut wrenching for me. What I found (and apparently most others) is that it is critically important to leave more room than you think you need time-wise just in case the unexpected happens.

During that run in August through October, we had what seemed like 3 black swan events over just a few months. I was prepared for 1 and could just barely recover from 2. Unfortunately, not 3. Now, my shortest term call is 5 months out. If this current dip brings us down into the $260s, I will buy some March calls but most of my calls will be June and J20 LEAPs. I really like going heavy with leverage when we are down below $280, but even then you have to give yourself more than a few weeks to recover just in case TSLA doesn't climb as quickly as it almost always has over its history. Of course, it is difficult if you were already quite leveraged when the stock was up high and you are trying to increase your leverage on a dip. As long as you have stock to convert and you have a few months on the calls, you can come out fine. If you get really aggressive and are out of powder (cash and stock) with calls expiring within a month, the odds of a devastating outcome are just too high.

 

[humbaba]

Bolt still outselling Model 3 by 278:1?

now that's just cruel

 

[elasalle]

I hope Tesla has similar plans with their factories in order to keep up with competition.

Porsche says its EV factory walls absorb nitrogen dioxide – pollutant its cheating diesel cars were emitting

Does Porsche do Farting App over the Air ??

 

[humbaba]

While I can't claim to be happy about the stock price (not low enough for me to be buying, not high enough to be selling), there is some cold comfort in being ~1% above NASDAQ. Wow, the market is taking a beating...

 

[SteveG3]

It's really mean to call kids a troll just because they are short.

Anton, as long as you are here, Tesla related question you near ‘certainly’ have an info edge re trying to call than the rest of us,


Do you think either by

- internal whistleblowing,

- external investigative action, or

-with the passage of time legal liability essentially vanishing and the story being told

we will all find out the depth, breadth, and the mechanics of the misinformation campaign directed towards Tesla?


I’m genuinely curious what you think with all you’ve so very very likely have seen and heard which we have not.

 

[humbaba]

Does Porsche do Farting App over the Air ??

(in reference to "Porsche says its EV factory walls absorb nitrogen dioxide – pollutant its cheating diesel cars were emitting")

no, but they will do a Nitrogen Dioxide emitting app over the air

 

[Fact Checking]

China Gives Ivanka Trump 5 New Trademarks Ahead Of Trade Talks With U.S. | HuffPost

"China has granted Ivanka Trump’s business preliminary approval of five new trademarks ahead of next week’s trade talks with the U.S., The Associated Press reported.

Four of them, including wedding gowns, sunglasses and child care centers, got the green light on Sunday. The fifth, which involves charitable fundraising, art valuations and brokerage, was approved earlier this month, online records posted by the Chinese government’s trademark office indicate."​

Even though I'm sure the timing is a total coincidence, China trade deal secured?

US cancels trade planning meeting with China, source says
​

Oh damn, they should have approved ten new trademarks of Ivanka instead!!

​

 

[Anton W]

@Anton W


this is a weird comment. IF this is Anton W from SA, i recall you had a Volt you never bothered to ever plug in "because too much trouble or some such hoohah" so electric is non existant 4 U anyway.
{hugz and kissez you cute little QT and thnx 4 subsidizing my 'vaca' to hawai'i and island of Kaua'i}
{will U ever answer my question bout your 20 non-existant model 3 reservations}
{beeg _smootch_ for ya you phat troll}

I'm not a troll. I'm an investor*.




*According to the SEC

 

[Electroman]

So many disagrees here, but apparently Tesla agrees with me that the Supercharger price increases are risky. Smart move Tesla

Anton - forget all that.

Can you come and give us your M3 vs Bolt updates here? Why did you stop publishing that after just two months? This is exactly the definition of hit piece, or trolling.

You have very little to no credibility here, or even in SA. More like a laughing stock. Most of your writings are hit pieces looking at a narrow irrelevant piece of the puzzle. Audi rates for a nonexistent car and a nonexistent charging system (with 300 kW rate) and with a completely incorrect analysis. The more you keep doubling down, the more you come out like a clown.

Can you please go back to your Seeking Lies cave?

 

[Bobfitz1]

There was initial "pent up demand" for Model 3's period... 300-400L paid reservations when the options and prices were unknown. Some fraction of that backlogged demand began to be filled once they started production. Add to that the steady-state new demand since production started.

Tesla has made somewhere ~170K M3's thus far. Say the initial pent up demand had 25% of folks wanting loaded cars. That could be upwards of 100K cars. They could have additionally have a steady-state demand for loaded M3 of 3,000/month for the last 18 moths, that's an additional 45K cars needed. That means they would have already filled the backlog and exceeded the production requirements without demand having dropped at all.

Profitability is can be affected by lower average ASP's and additional spending to introduce differing models/options.

None of us know what % of reservations holders wanted loaded cars. You are playing with made up numbers to support your position.
Actual demand for any particular variant is not our guess at a percentage. It is how many reservation holders are ready to purchase a AWD or P3 once they become available or soon afterward. 400K people made refundable reservation deposits so they would have the option to buy an M3 when their reservation # came up, and wait fewer years while production ramped and those ahead of them were called on to purchase. Only some % of reservations made translates into actual demand at the present time. Tesla has made ~ 170K cars since Q4 2017. About 130K after AWD and P3 became available. The VIN numbers requested include a portion that indicates if those will be for dual motor cars. So it is possible for some on TMC to discern the Q3 and Q4 mix of single motor (lower cost) and dual motor (higher cost and margins). Do you seriously imagine that 60% of all M3s sold so far are AWD or P3?

Why would you make up a number of additional AWD and P3 cars as 'new' non reservation demand, of 3K per month, then multiply by 18 months when they have only been built and sold the past 7 months??

When production falls short of real demand for higher priced versions, the estimated wait on the configurator will get longer and longer.
Tesla shifted some production from single motor to dual motor cars to meet all the available real time demand for them.
They would have further shifted production (requesting even more dual motor VINs) to dual motor cars if there had been more buyers for those versions in Q3 and Q4. Sorry, you are terminally confused about what 'demand' for higher cost versions actually means quarter to quarter. Tesla's educated guess about real demand is what influences the mix of M3s to be built and what VINs are requested. They can change that mix several times a quarter if needed to ensure they don't have excess higher cost cars carried in inventory.

 

[tivoboy]

Slightly Off Topic.

I use TD Ameritrade think or swim for my alerting system. Works great, USUALLY. today, their alerts are totally out of whack. I'm getting triggers for stocks with prices WAY above current selling and WAY below current selling. for example, my SPY alerts from Dec for SPY < 230 went off this morning, dow under 20K, T over 40$, SQ over 81$, etc..

But, my TSLA alerts just started going off. OBVIOUSLY totally wrong. TSLA LAST over 379$, TSLA LAST over $384 and my favorite, TSLA over 3650$... clearly that was a fat finger I put in over a month ago - with the EXTRA 0.

Anyway, I can't wait to see what's next. Probably AMZN over 2000, GOOGL over 2100. I'm sure I still have outstanding alerts in those levels.

back to normal watching.

 

[scaesare]

None of us know what % of reservations holders wanted loaded cars.

Precisely. That's why you can't make the claim:

it's not clear why continuing U.S. demand for high margin versions should decline as steeply as it has

 

[winfield100]

I'm not a troll. I'm an investor*.

*According to the SEC

i'm stunned you deigned 2 answer.
about those 20 model 3 reservations.
did you get a res number for any?
you slumming here looking for hoohah 4 another sleeze kinky article?
{hugz 'n kissez and a beeg smootch, thnx 4 subsidizing my Kaua'i vaca}
{no quoting me unless 100% if u do sew for a sleeze kinky article, 'k}
m'whah, you hunky chunky, cheek maag'nit!

 

[Buckminster]

LUVB2B has posted his Q4 update people.