Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Are you sure they're advertising the new chip? I don't see much indication of that. How did the page change, versus say, a month ago?

That said... I feel like we're getting really close to major product announcements though. The product website is typically updated same day as earnings report... so expect something on Wednesday!

Processing Power Increased 40x
To make sense of all of this data, a new onboard computer with over 40 times the computing power of the previous generation runs the new Tesla-developed neural net for vision, sonar and radar processing software. Together, this system provides a view of the world that a driver alone cannot access, seeing in every direction simultaneously, and on wavelengths that go far beyond the human senses.

 

[Tslynk67]

'The leading guess is that Tesla is trying to differentiate the S/X and the Model 3 better and to further improve S/X margins'

I'm glad to get a direct answer. Let's remember that and see how that ages.

Yeah, but with the current line-up and pricing, this doesn't sit well with me.

I've three kids, a wife and two dogs, there's no way a Model 3 would cut it as a family car for our situation. Fortunately I can afford a top-spec MX, but if I couldn't, it would rule-out Tesla as an option. Given the 55% of MX sales were the 75, I can't help thinking this is the situation for many buyers.

So I still hope they'll come with a 120 and revise the 100 pricing a bit lower.

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm glad to get a direct answer.

Are you reading the right forum, did you really miss the days and dozens and dozes of posts that were spent debating this very question? If you enter "75d" into the search bar there's over 80 comments with that specific word alone - and twice as many that quoted such comments and discussed them.

Why do you keep pretending it wasn't discussed?

 

[avoigt]

Lower scores across the board than I was expecting.

Versus
In 2014, Bart Verheggen of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency surveyed 1,868 climate scientists. They found that, consistent with other research, the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation correlated with expertise - 90% of those surveyed with more than 10 peer-reviewed papers related to climate (just under half of survey respondents) explicitly agreed that greenhouse gases was the main cause of global warming.[3]

In the past decades we have usually seen young people to be more focussed on the environment than older generations and that effect continues to be true.

However we have also seen longer periods where the tendency to focus on your own including family, job and money has led to a distance to politics and to take the unpleasant road to involve yourself and fight for your position. That attitude of declaring politics just a matter for politicians has changed since we have seen major negative disruptions happening with Brexit and the Trump administration to name just two.

Today I am more hopeful that the new generation is taking part and involves themselves against all odds. The reason when this gets important is when that generation starts to act based on their convictions.

The Swedish girl demonstrating as well as a very multi color group of new often female congress representatives moving in makes me more hopeful that a younger generation starts talking, stand up for their conviction and acts based on them.

There is a good reason why Germany decided to get out of coal and spend € 40bn to make that happen is completely accepted by the population. As a side not unfortunately our dependency of gas will increase by doing that as not all will be offset by green energy.

If the new generation really starts to acts as they talk these days then I see a very positive change happening to our environment and with it to transportation. Money flows can change more quickly direction than most can imagine and with that the EV disruption accelerate.

In 2 days all Bavaria citizens are called to vote on measure of biodiversity for the state. Often changes are driven from the grass roots.

 

[bobo]

Local Swedish newspaper reporting that Swedish Transportation Agency can stop the sale of Tesla cars for up to 6 months because of concerns that Tesla is updating security systems over the air.

Link in Swedish:
https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/motor/forsaljning-av-teslabilar-kan-stoppas/

This seems like some next level logic, and Sweden is relatively small market for Tesla so I do not expect any effect on stock price. I hope none of this nonsense is picked up by the rest of the EU.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, but with the current line-up and pricing, this doesn't sit well with me.

I've three kids, a wife and two dogs, there's no way a Model 3 would cut it as a family car for our situation. Fortunately I can afford a top-spec MX, but if I couldn't, it would rule-out Tesla as an option. Given the 55% of MX sales were the 75, I can't help thinking this is the situation for many buyers.

So I still hope they'll come with a 120 and revise the 100 pricing a bit lower.

Model 3 is already the largest of the "affordable" EVs by interior space. What EV would you choose instead? You mention the Model X. What other passenger EV is as large as a Model X in terms of interior space, or even close, at any price point?

And Tesla does have plans for an affordable, larger EV: its called the Model Y. You've probably heard of it It's their top priority new EV right now. Just about to be unveiled, with lots of money getting poured into tooling right after that.

Arguably eliminating the 75D versions contributes to this, and not just simply by improving Tesla's margins. Now they have the lines down at night. Which means at the very least that they could work on line modifications to help improve their efficiency, but even more interestingly, they could now try to merge the old (inefficient) S body line onto the X line. Which would free up the S line. Which could then potentially be retooled for the Y, if Tesla wants to have it at Fremont.

That's in no way saying that this "will" happen. But it is a possibility now that S/X production is reduced and there's some line downtime - a possibility which didn't previously exist.

(Other things that eliminating the 75Ds does: it also frees up more spare part capacity to improve service, and frees up more paint shop and stamping capacity for the Model 3. It also removes Tesla's shortest-range high-end vehicles, which has the effect of making all of the "competition"'s ranges look pathetic)

 

[shlokavica22]

Since I don't expect the stock to rise to those levels this week, not selling them would be like leaving money lying on the table...

Just to clarify- the calls you sold are part of a spread, or at least covered with stock, or are they?

 

[avoigt]

Local Swedish newspaper reporting that Swedish Transportation Agency can stop the sale of Tesla cars for up to 6 months because of concerns that Tesla is updating security systems over the air.

Link in Swedish:
https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/motor/forsaljning-av-teslabilar-kan-stoppas/

This seems like some next level logic, and Sweden is relatively small market for Tesla so I do not expect any effect on stock price. I hope none of this nonsense is picked up by the rest of the EU.

Given that the S and X do over the air updates all the time without flaws and continues to improve the safety and security of the cars in Europe such a measure can only be initiated by politicians who really do not know what they talk about influenced by experts influenced themselves by ICE auto lobbyists.

Not updating over the air is less secure for the car and with it for people. Updating in a service center is not more secure either.

 

[shlokavica22]

Macro related:

US charges China's Huawei with fraud

The charges are:

• The indictment alleges Huawei misled the US and a global bank about its relationship with two subsidiaries, Huawei Device USA and Skycom Tech, to conduct business with Iran.
• Huawei stole technology from T Mobile used to test smartphone durability, as well as obstructing justice and committing wire fraud

Reminder- US-China trade meeting starts tomorrow.

 

[KarenRei]

Macro related:

US charges China's Huawei with fraud

The charges are:

• The indictment alleges Huawei misled the US and a global bank about its relationship with two subsidiaries, Huawei Device USA and Skycom Tech, to conduct business with Iran.
• Huawei stole technology from T Mobile used to test smartphone durability, as well as obstructing justice and committing wire fraud

Reminder- US-China trade meeting starts tomorrow.

Macros relatively flat. Surprising. I guess this was already priced in.

And I still don't get why oil went down yesterday when sanctions were imposed on PDVSA.

 

[lklundin]

Yeah, but I'm a bit curious as to why they're only converting a few at each location. I would have thought it would be more cost-effective to do all at each spot, at least in terms of planning.

Look on the bright side, at least us "classic" Tesla drivers won't find the Superchargers M3'd

As a soon-to-be Model 3 owner, I am optimistically imagining that Tesla can not be bothered to upgrade these aging 120 kW stalls, when soon a deluge of 180 kW Superchargers will appear...

 

[shlokavica22]

Macros relatively flat. Surprising.

And I still don't get why oil went down yesterday when sanctions were imposed on PDVSA.

In a way it's all related:

In September, China’s Development Bank has approved a $5bn loan for Venezuela’s oil industry. The authorisation has also been granted for a direct investment of more than $250m from China Development Bank to increase PDVSA production. However, China has already invested billions in Venezuela’s oil industry over the last decade and has yet to arrest this decline.

 

[heltok]

Local Swedish newspaper reporting that Swedish Transportation Agency can stop the sale of Tesla cars for up to 6 months because of concerns that Tesla is updating security systems over the air.

Link in Swedish:
https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/motor/forsaljning-av-teslabilar-kan-stoppas/

This seems like some next level logic, and Sweden is relatively small market for Tesla so I do not expect any effect on stock price. I hope none of this nonsense is picked up by the rest of the EU.

The “journalist” either has low intelligence or is trying to be misleading. Agency said they are closing a 3 year old investigation, but might consider reopening it IF there is a crash involving Tesla Autopilot in Sweden. So maybe if some events happen in the future they will consider to give themselves the option, which they may or may not use, to ban Tesla sales for 6months.

 

[lklundin]

The Glovis Cosmos, where a crew member posted a selfie and wrote that it is headed for Norway is for now headed for Zeebrugge,

Vessel details for: GLOVIS COSMOS (Vehicles Carrier) - IMO 9707027, MMSI 538006227, Call Sign V7KV9 Registered in Marshall Is | AIS Marine Traffic

While the Zeebrugge harbour lists the Glovis Captain with an ETA of Feb. 2nd, there seems to be no entry for Glovis Cosmos,
Aankomst schepen | Port of Zeebrugge

 

[KarenRei]

The “journalist” either has low intelligence or is trying to be misleading. Agency said they are closing a 3 year old investigation, but might consider reopening it IF there is a crash involving Tesla Autopilot in Sweden. So maybe if some events happen in the future they will consider to give themselves the option, which they may or may not use, to ban Tesla sales for 6months.

Source for the accurate info? This info needs to be shared so the stock doesn't get FUDed down.

 

[dc_h]

Given that the S and X do over the air updates all the time without flaws and continues to improve the safety and security of the cars in Europe such a measure can only be initiated by politicians who really do not know what they talk about influenced by experts influenced themselves by ICE auto lobbyists.

Not updating over the air is less secure for the car and with it for people. Updating in a service center is not more secure either.

My pc security isand phone are updated over the air. It’s the only way to stay secure. I’d guess Elon might make a flight to fight this before a stupid precedent is created.

 

[SebastianR]

Let me put it this way. Dropping the 75D models is a big deal with little management explanation. What do you think, with an eye on being measured by the ultimate answer, was the forum conclusion on that subject? Was it sufficiently debated?

I suspect we'll get the answers here soon and I'm not sure it will be good.

I will make a bolt prediction right here, right now - it is a bit OT - yet very much related to TSLA and market movements so I won't mark it OT just yet:

Prediction: we will see many more examples of "easily preventable Tesla investor communications blunders". We will see them not because Elon Musk hates TSLA investors but we will see them as Tesla shifts from "funded through the capital markets and thus being exposed to FUD of short-sellers" to "self-funding through free cash-flow from a very significant Model 3 production". If I'm correct then we all including the institutional investors are less relevant in future to the success of Tesla. Thus communication will be focused on customers, employees and anything else that advances the Tesla mission.

tl;dr: I do believe there is a reason for the end of the 75D versions. I don't think Tesla believes that TSLA needs to be pampered urgently and thus we will hear about it later. For now the key aspect of the communication was directed at customers to manage their expectations without generating one huge last wave of 75D sales.

In short, I disagree: I don't think "it will not be good" I simply think "it is not important enough to Tesla right now".

 

[bobo]

Source for the accurate info? This info needs to be shared so the stock doesn't get FUDed down.

I could not find a link to the Transportstyrelsen (the agency in question), but here is a link that publishes a bit more detail:
Nya uppgifter: Tesla kan tvingas stoppa försäljningen i Sverige

It looks like this is a big "confusion" from a journalist and Tesla is free to sell cars.

 

[SebastianR]

It looks like this is a big "confusion" from a journalist and Tesla is free to sell cars.

Not to unpack my tin-foil hat but if I was a journalist, I would not mind a few mistakes here and there in my articles as that drives engagement: this would have been a complete non-story had it not been for this "confusion". And non-stories won't sell...

Now that we expect a first shipment of Model 3 in Europe I expect a new wave of "confused" articles in the coming days. As I mentioned some time ago: the home-team in Europe is not sleeping and in absence of real controversies, we will need to create and fabricate controversies to get those sweet sweet clicks, don't we?

 

[winfield100]

Kinda on topic
135 megawatt virtual power plant getting enhanced by Tesla batteries in Australia (Tesla Energy)
Yurika! Queensland to install Tesla big battery in Townsville