Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla reopens Amazon store again after weird launch [Updated]

So Tesla opened a broken Amazon store, closed it, and now has reopened it after supposed confusion in the executive ranks. Smooth Tesla, Smooth. I keep beating my dead horse, but Tesla’s lack of empowered and qualified managers gets really annoying.

 

[mekberg]

Whomever has been in charge of Merchandise over the years - all of them have greatly underestimated the demand. In a gynormous elephant nuts kind of way.

This. I also heard from a Tesla employee (Westfield Woodland Hills?) merch would fly off the retail shelf. They discontinued merch in that location to make room for a Model 3.

 

[Todd Burch]

I 'second this' with my experience. My 2013 P85+ and I sold many Ss before there ever was a referral program. Who knows how many of those people sold more Teslas.

Yep. The FIRST DAY I drove to work after receiving my 2012 S I sold another S. This person literally followed me into my office parking lot, curious, and I offered a test drive. Sold.

Gave a second test drive to someone else within a month and that person bought too.

Have now personally sold 2 3s and 2 Ss as a result of my test drives, which I know is nowhere near the most...but if everyone did that...

 

[printf42]

OT

Yeah it’s gone, the fact it was gone so quickly and the store was a bit poorly designed/planed makes me think it might be fake, set up by an unrelated/unauthorized 3rd-party.

Stuff that was listed might not be from Tesla, maybe people who ordered something would confirm(before returning them).

But, I still think it might be a good idea if Tesla starts to sell low-price high-margin merchs on Amazon(apparels, gadgets, etc).

For example the wireless phone charging power bank alone has the potential to become a half-billion-revenue business.
Also it would be a good advertisement for Tesla energy.

And... they reopened the Amazon store.
Items are marked as “sold by Tesla Inc” so sounds legit.
Tesla
This is a link without ref code. In case you don’t want to sponsor Fred by clicking the link in his article.

Oh man, my posts don’t age well...

 

[humbaba]

Ah cool, thanks.

So Elon's statement 8 months ago was $125/kWh pack level costs within 2 years... so indeed likely well before 2021. Maybe even before 2020.

minor correction: $100/kWh, not $125.

 

[Unpilot]

Whew all caught up...you folks are some prolific poster's.

I just came back from Cuba and I can report I saw no Tesla's there so I guess demand is 0. It is really I crying shame as I thought this electric car thing might just take off.

I see we have a few new "care Bears" ...posting how nice of them.

 

[JRP3]

Out of two levers: price cut and leasing, they chose price cut and I think it is the wrong lever.

I think they said in the latest CC, the accounting rules on leasing would have a negative impact on profit. I guess they want to have GAAP profit for the next two quarters so joining index can happen. Then they can go to high growth mode again.

Correct, so the price cut is in fact the right lever to pull.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I anticipated that those inconveniences may happen and decided to postpone my pick up.

Smart. Given the stories we’ve heard, I would request “sms me a pic of the car, in situ, and i’m on my way”. Premature Model 3 excitement, only to be let down, sounds dreadful.

 

[gringotuanis]

And... they reopened the Amazon store.
Items are marked as “sold by Tesla Inc” so sounds legit.
Tesla
This is a link without ref code. In case you don’t want to sponsor Fred by clicking the link in his article.

Oh man, my posts don’t age well...

Dang that was too easy. I just ordered a mug lol.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Joe Rogan Shocked By His New Tesla Model S: Video

Joe Rogan saying Elon is a “culture changer” and that we as America “need” someone like Elon is the big message here.

Rogan after driving his new Tesla had a dramatic mind shift on the future of transport. He is a muscle car guy, and he’s now talking about how more efficient solar is what he wants now to charge his car and it’s “only a matter of time” till it happens... this snowball effect of thought and ideas — from gas stations and muscle car mentality to this —is exactly what a culture change Tesla ignites.

It’s the salient of total economic transformation and we’ve only just begun.

Cool n all, but he’s wrong about on-car-solar ever powering the car. If the sun could do that, we’d fry.

 

[DaveT]

Dave - I would not have invested in Tesla if it wasn't for all your great posts all those years ago. It has been a tough road these last few years which has made us all a bit "jumpy". There is evidence that Elon is less interested in SP than perhaps we thought because he is no longer at Wall Street's beck and call. So, I get your newfound scepticism. However, this post...speechless.

I probably ought to clarify my last post.

First, I don't think the price drop is overall good news. If demand was stronger, Tesla wouldn't have needed to drop the price and they could sell all the cars they produce and make better margins and more profit, especially in this very important Q1 quarter.

On the other hand, there are some positives. Most notably, Tesla wouldn't have dropped the price unless they were able to do so while still achieving decent margins. So, it does show in some regard cost efficiency improvements they are likely making. However, usually it's not that straightforward, and in this case I think it's a bit of both. Soft U.S. demand after the expiring full federal tax credit, weak seasonal Jan/Feb sales, delay in SR Model 3... combined with Tesla's ability to increase their gross margin on the Model 3s that they are producing.

I think Tesla's goal is not to "increase" demand per se with this price drop, but rather they just want to be able to sell all the cars they produce this quarter... and by dropping the price, this does get some more people to buy the Model 3 and will help Q1 revenue.

On a bigger picture note, I do think that the bulk of Model 3 demand will be in the $35k-45k price range, and Tesla doesn't offer the low-end yet and is missing out on a lot of potential buyers. So, in this regard, it's a tricky time to navigate for Tesla. They need to quickly offer the $35k SR Model 3, but they're not able to do so immediately. But they're needing to keep demand up to sell all the cars the produce, especially until they can get the SR Model 3 out which will hopefully shore up demand.

I think we'll be debating/arguing about "demand" for Model 3 for the next few years, just like folks here did with the Model S and X. However, in the end, it's quite possible that Model 3 demand might not be as high as Elon has predicted. I personally think a lot of it depends on range. A SR Model 3 at 220 miles just isn't enough range for most to get super excited about an EV. If the $35k Model 3 had 300 miles, then that would be a different story. In other words, if Tesla sold a $35k Model 3 that got 300 miles range (or even 270 miles), then I think demand would be as high, if not higher than Elon estimates. But that is going to take time for Tesla to get there.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Batteries don't so much lose power as they get less efficient and have less usable capacity. If you warm them back up, it come back.

My apologizes if am I misreading your post, but power (kW) is different from energy (kWh). Each of those modules contains only 18 Wh of energy (the same as one 2170 cell), Absolute max current is 1,900A at absolute max voltage of 17V, so yeah it will put out 32kW, for a total of 2 seconds or 15kW for 4 seconds. Not exactly, since the voltage drops as is discharges but you see my point.

Even then, you can't efficiently run an inverter off of a capacitor the is cycled form 100% to 0. Power in = power out = voltage times amps. If the caps are current limited, the voltage falls linearly and the power output does also.

I doubt Tesla would use a cap bank to increase the energy capacity of the pack. Increasing the power capacity on the other hand could be advantageous in very cold conditions and potentially avoid 18 second P3D 0-60 times. Having a cap bank may also improve regen/efficiency a smidge, but it would mostly be to increase low temperature power.

Polar Vortex vs Model 3 Performance 0-60 time. (okay, 0-59)

 

[EVNow]

@AudubonB Is it possible to make a rule in this sub-forum to not let newbies post for a certain # of days (and only after posting certain # of times in other sub-forums) ? This will reduce the noise.

One more option is to have their posts needing approval before getting displayed.

I've used these options to control trolls effectively in other forums.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

I probably ought to clarify my last post.

First, I don't think the price drop is overall good news. If demand was stronger, Tesla wouldn't have needed to drop the price and they could sell all the cars they produce and make better margins and more profit, especially in this very important Q1 quarter.

On the other hand, there are some positives. Most notably, Tesla wouldn't have dropped the price unless they were able to do so while still achieving decent margins. So, it does show in some regard cost efficiency improvements they are likely making. However, usually it's not that straightforward, and in this case I think it's a bit of both. Soft U.S. demand after the expiring full federal tax credit, weak seasonal Jan/Feb sales, delay in SR Model 3... combined with Tesla's ability to increase their gross margin on the Model 3s that they are producing.

I think Tesla's goal is not to "increase" demand per se with this price drop, but rather they just want to be able to sell all the cars they produce this quarter... and by dropping the price, this does get some more people to buy the Model 3 and will help Q1 revenue.

On a bigger picture note, I do think that the bulk of Model 3 demand will be in the $35k-45k price range, and Tesla doesn't offer the low-end yet and is missing out on a lot of potential buyers. So, in this regard, it's a tricky time to navigate for Tesla. They need to quickly offer the $35k SR Model 3, but they're not able to do so immediately. But they're needing to keep demand up to sell all the cars the produce, especially until they can get the SR Model 3 out which will hopefully shore up demand.

I think we'll be debating/arguing about "demand" for Model 3 for the next few years, just like folks here did with the Model S and X. However, in the end, it's quite possible that Model 3 demand might not be as high as Elon has predicted. I personally think a lot of it depends on range. A SR Model 3 at 220 miles just isn't enough range for most to get super excited about an EV. If the $35k Model 3 had 300 miles, then that would be a different story. In other words, if Tesla sold a $35k Model 3 that got 300 miles range (or even 270 miles), then I think demand would be as high, if not higher than Elon estimates. But that is going to take time for Tesla to get there.

Well said.

 

[EVNow]

A SR Model 3 at 220 miles just isn't enough range for most to get super excited about an EV.

I disagree. The 400k reservations were for a 200 mile, $35k car.

Availability of Bolt of Leaf 2 LR hasn't changed that. They are mostly still waiting for the $35k, 200 mile car. Along with leasing, the $35k car will let Tesla sell 500k 3s per year, when they can make that many.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I mean seriously, I'm obviously joking. Admit you laughed.

No, I thought "If he actually believes that he's an imbecile, and if he doesn't then he's just wasting my time." Bye.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I’m probably wasting breath here, but if some want to get the terminology right...

An increase or a shift to the right in demand is when the entire demand curve moves. It means more will sell, *for the same price*.

Mostly what is described on these pages as an increase in demand is just movement along a static demand curve, caused by reduced price. This is not an *increase* in demand.

The reduced price theoretically reflects an increase in supply, since theory tells us that market price is where the demand and supply curves meet.

Demand curve - Wikipedia

 

[EVNow]

I mean seriously, I'm obviously joking. Admit you laughed.

I did LOL at this commit - not the original one.

 

[Thekiwi]

I probably ought to clarify my last post.

First, I don't think the price drop is overall good news. If demand was stronger, Tesla wouldn't have needed to drop the price and they could sell all the cars they produce and make better margins and more profit, especially in this very important Q1 quarter.

On the other hand, there are some positives. Most notably, Tesla wouldn't have dropped the price unless they were able to do so while still achieving decent margins. So, it does show in some regard cost efficiency improvements they are likely making. However, usually it's not that straightforward, and in this case I think it's a bit of both. Soft U.S. demand after the expiring full federal tax credit, weak seasonal Jan/Feb sales, delay in SR Model 3... combined with Tesla's ability to increase their gross margin on the Model 3s that they are producing.

I think Tesla's goal is not to "increase" demand per se with this price drop, but rather they just want to be able to sell all the cars they produce this quarter... and by dropping the price, this does get some more people to buy the Model 3 and will help Q1 revenue.

On a bigger picture note, I do think that the bulk of Model 3 demand will be in the $35k-45k price range, and Tesla doesn't offer the low-end yet and is missing out on a lot of potential buyers. So, in this regard, it's a tricky time to navigate for Tesla. They need to quickly offer the $35k SR Model 3, but they're not able to do so immediately. But they're needing to keep demand up to sell all the cars the produce, especially until they can get the SR Model 3 out which will hopefully shore up demand.

I think we'll be debating/arguing about "demand" for Model 3 for the next few years, just like folks here did with the Model S and X. However, in the end, it's quite possible that Model 3 demand might not be as high as Elon has predicted. I personally think a lot of it depends on range. A SR Model 3 at 220 miles just isn't enough range for most to get super excited about an EV. If the $35k Model 3 had 300 miles, then that would be a different story. In other words, if Tesla sold a $35k Model 3 that got 300 miles range (or even 270 miles), then I think demand would be as high, if not higher than Elon estimates. But that is going to take time for Tesla to get there.

I agree that the bulk of demand for Model 3 will be in the $35-$45k range, but I think you are overestimating the minimum range demanded by most people for an EV - many are wanting them primarily as commuter cars and 220 miles is more than ample range. in fact I think a significantly lower range would even be acceptable to many (the ~150 mile “City Range” I suggested earlier). Worth remembering the bulk of non-tesla EVs have been sold at much lower ranges.

 

[EVNow]

I’m probably wasting breath here, but if some want to get the terminology right...

An increase or a shift to the right in demand is when the entire demand curve moves. It means more will sell, *for the same price*.

Mostly what is described on these pages as an increase in demand is just movement along a static demand curve, caused by reduced price. This is not an *increase* in demand.

The reduced price theoretically reflects an increase in supply, since theory tells us that market price is where the demand and supply curves meet.

Demand curve - Wikipedia

Its not that black and white.

A demand curve shows different demands at different prices. So, when the price is lower, the demand is *higher* (usually). In other words, the decrease in price allows higher demand - and higher supply to satisfy that increased demand.