Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bobo]

Unrelated: what's this nonsense I'm seeing in Shortsville about all European buyers getting AP refunded whether they asked for it or not? I'm searching and can't find even *one* European buyer getting an EAP refund they didn't ask for, let alone everyone (maybe I just suck at searching? Surely this rumour started somewhere...)

Don't know if this was related, but when I had my test drive and asked about Adaptive cruise control, the Tesla guy said that the car has not been driven that much in Sweden and would need to be driven some time before the Adaptive Cruise Control is enabled.
Only normal cruise control worked on the car I tested.
I thought that this was not true, but did not want to engage in a confrontational discussion.
He also said that the Model 3 would be able to charge on the current superchargers before they were upgraded to CCS, and it turned out it was not true...

See some more info on my test drive here:
EVMonitor: Test drive of Tesla Model 3 in Malmö, Sweden

 

[FS_FRA]

I think it's a pickup truck. I.e. the realistic possibilities are: GM, Ford, FCA and Toyota - with a higher probability for a North American partner.

Has GM announced an EV power train partner?

Who are the only 2 US automakers that have not gone bankrupt, and both love pickup trucks ?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Who are the only 2 US automakers that have not gone bankrupt, and both love pickup trucks ?

If you can't beat 'em...use 'em!

Dan

 

[avoigt]

There are a few direct reports of credible Dutch users here on TMC in the Dutch language forum that they were issued with a second invoice without EAP. I guess that's where it's coming from. As usual there is no direct communication from Tesla about the how and the why. Is it a simple administrative error? Is it because AP isn't yet certified? Is it because ordering EAP later lowers the taxable base for Dutch buyers over the lifetime of the car? No one knows, and those that pretend to know tell conflicting things. That's Tesla communication for you. And it's not like it is a sudden surprise that those cars arrived on the shore of Zeebrugge obviously.

All that is certain is that I have not seen a single report on Model 3 cars in Europe with Autopilot enabled (both demo&customer cars).

Related. I don't understand how Tesla can claim about the Model 3 "the car is now fully certified for sale in these markets" when an essential differentiating feature is not. Perhaps I should take extra English lessons to understand the different meanings of 'fully'.

Its no big deal. AP needs a separate approval which is delayed due to the authorities not Tesla:

A spokesperson for Tesla said in a statement that the company is “planning to enable Autopilot in Europe beginning next week” for the Model 3. The company says all necessary tests have been completed, but that the approval is still being processed.

Autopilot is disabled on Tesla’s first Model 3 deliveries in Europe

 

[Fact Checking]

Who are the only 2 US automakers that have not gone bankrupt, and both love pickup trucks ?

Isn't Ford already partnering with Volkswagen in the EV space though?

 

[KarenRei]

Glovis Cosmos back on the move toward Zeebrugge; now halfway up the coast of Portugal. ETA changed to 11 feb.

GLOVIS COSMOS Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9707027) - VesselFinder

Back in SF, Emerald Ace is still hogging Pier 80, so Glovis Courage is stuck in its offshore holding pattern.

 

[bhtooefr]

Note that she didn't say full-size pickup.

In (in my opinion) decreasing order of likelihood:

1. FCA (has in-house electrification... that mostly grabs things off the shelf, AFAIK)
2. Ford (Maybe?)
3. Toyota (Past partnership with Tesla, maybe they need a compliance Tundra/Tacoma for something)
4. GM
5. Mercedes-Benz (Still remnants of partnership with Tesla, although they're pushing their own EV tech now... but their truck is a rebadged Nissan Navara. IIRC with their own powertrains, though...)
6. Nissan (they have enough in-house EV experience...)
7. Mitsubishi (Triton isn't sold in compliance car markets, and they're allied with Nissan anyway)
8. Volkswagen (the Amarok's not sold in compliance car markets, will be replaced by a rebadged Ranger, and VW will want to focus on their own EV tech)
9. Mazda (the BT-50 isn't sold in compliance car markets, and Mazda really doesn't care for EVs)
10. Honda (the Ridgeline isn't suited to a Tesla pack, and Honda's shown no interest in body-on-frame pickups)

I left off the Chinese, Russian, and Indian manufacturers.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Tesla Amazon store seems legit. My hat arrived in 2 days as promised. Return address is Tesla Inc in North Las Vegas. Hat is decent quality. Made in China.
View attachment 375405

If you want a hat with descent quality, head over to the SpaceX store.

The Orange One gets a multi pass. Who would have thought back then America could go magaga.

Isn't Ford already partnering with Volkswagen in the EV space though?

If I remember correctly, apart from commercial vehicle cooperation, the talk is of Ford possibly building VW's new MEB platform under license. VW has just recently indicated they are open to sharing it. Not sure at all that becoming so dependent on the world's number one car manufacturer is smart long term thinking.

 

[KarenRei]

Hate the premarket :Þ

 

[Fact Checking]

Hate the premarket :Þ

Macros are pretty ugly today: -0.9% NASDAQ futures, so far.

 

[KarenRei]

Macros are pretty ugly today: -0.9% NASDAQ futures, so far.

Well, so much for my plan to turn my calls into spreads in order to buy a protective put spread (for next week) today. :Þ Unless I want to really cap my upside and/or have a really low put spread.

 

[schonelucht]

Its no big deal. AP needs a separate approval which is delayed due to the authorities not Tesla:

It's not about the issue itself, which I agree is NBD. It's about lying about it in their quarterly shareholder letter.

 

[Sudre]

ED: Okay, I've been given permission to be a bit less vague (jumping back to the earlier topic):

A little birdie says that - independent of their own truck programme - Tesla has partnered with [major automaker name redacted] to provide the powertrain for their electric pickup programme, due out [time redacted - not exactly tomorrow, but not exactly five years from now either ].

Dig a bit more into companies who you'd expect to have an interest in electric pickups but *haven't* announced powertrain partnerships with anyone for them, and you might be able to figure this out. But that's all I can say.

It's also possible that the little birdie is wrong. The evidence to me says no. But again, I can't elaborate on why.

Oh come on now I heard Tesla was going to have all these battery cells piling up around GF1 with nothing to use them for. /s

 

[Lessmog]

Fred Alert - Click Only If You Want To Give Him Clicks

... ...

Both referenced job postings have since been removed from the site. But the takeaway is clear: Tesla is getting ready to start - or has already started - tooling for Model Y. And there will be an alumium foundry at GF1 for producing high pressure die-cast parts. I imagine they'll have a steel foundry as well? Unless they don't use any custom cast steel parts....

Is that some new tech? I know about cast iron, which is brittle and has a high carbon content, but I always thought steel is forged, that is hammered, to bring carbon level low -- or don't you need to do that with hydrogen-reduced steel perhaps so it can be cast?
Always nice to learn!

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla partners with Ford for the power train on the F150.

Then comes out with a Tesla pickup that is orders of magnitude better.

Ford goes bankrupt.

Telsa picks the carcass for the bit it wants.

I sell a few shares of Tesla and retire.

 

[KarenRei]

Is that some new tech? I know about cast iron, which is brittle and has a high carbon content, but I always thought steel is forged, that is hammered, to bring carbon level low -- or don't you need to do that with hydrogen-reduced steel perhaps so it can be cast?
Always nice to learn!

Steel casting - Wikipedia

 

[shlokavica22]

Well, so much for my plan to turn my calls into spreads in order to buy a protective put spread (for next week) today. :Þ Unless I want to really cap my upside and/or have a really low put spread.

It's hard for me to grasp what's your reasoning behind that? You will be even more exposed to theta and if the market continues yo-yoing with small movements, it will bite in both positions.

Did you btw buy back the spread you opened the other day (I lost track on the posts since the Green deal discussion erupted in the group chat)?

 

[jhm]

BTW., just to demonstrate how dumb that argument is, freight ships are pretty darn efficient, they have an estimated person-equivalent MPG rating of around ~370:

Fuel Efficiency: Modes of Transportation Ranked By MPG​

A GLOVIS class ship cruising at 17 knots will use about ~100 tons of diesel fuel (33k gallons) on this 9,200 miles sea distance, shipping 3,000 Tesla cars. (If I calculated it correctly.)

A fleet of 3,000 average diesel cars uses about 5,000 gallons or ~15 tons of diesel fuel per day.

So these 3,000 Teslas are going to save the fuel used for their shipping from the U.S. to Europe in only about 7 days of driving.

For the remaining 15 years of their expected life time they are going to prevent another ~77,900 tons of diesel fuel from being burned.

Model 3's could be shipped to 30 times the distance of the Moon, or 300 times around the Earth, and still emit less carbon than gas cars...

33k gallons / 3000 vehicles = 11 gallons per vehicle to travel from California to Europe. Anyone who just put 11 gallons in their gas tank, criticizing Tesla on this point, is a hypocrite.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla turning former Sport Haus building into new Reno dealership

It's hard for me to grasp what's your reasoning behind that? You will be even more exposed to theta and if the market continues yo-yoing with small movements, it will bite in both positions.

Did you btw buy back the spread you opened the other day (I lost track on the posts since the Green deal discussion erupted in the group chat)?

I opened a spread several days ago, then bought it back the same day for a 35% profit. Basically got a free call out of it. So I'm in a position to open a spread again.

These are ITM calls. Well, used to be quite ITM... not so much any more :Þ (22 Feb $300s). So theta isn't the biggest concern, it's losing the intrinsic value.

If the stock had been like it was a few days ago, I'd have sold calls ($345-$360 range) and use that to fund a narrow ($5-10 wide) put spread (<=$300) But now the options look far less appealing.

My concerns are that there's supposed to be a commerce department report next week involving a recommendation as to whether to increase tariffs on cars from the EU. Trump would have 90 days to react to it. If he were to choose to do so, the EU already has retaliatory tariffs planned, which would surely bite Tesla hard. Fear of this should result in a significant stock hit.

On the other hand, if there's no recommendation, or a recommendation against tariffs, or a clear sign that a deal will be struck (the EU is offering up the complete elimination of its auto tariff), this would be a huge boost for Tesla. But it seems the less likely possibility.

 

[shlokavica22]

Tesla partners with Ford for the power train on the F150.

Then comes out with a Tesla pickup that is orders of magnitude better.

Ford goes bankrupt.

Telsa picks the carcass for the bit it wants.

I sell a few shares of Tesla and retire.

I have puts on F and money wise I would like that, but honestly speaking I doubt Elon's target is to intentionally bankrupt competitors.
If TSLA can scale up the battery production faster than the auto production, it makes perfect sense to help some other company to switch to EVs faster and retire more ICEs asap. Trucks are not yet part of TSLA's portfolio, so no harm done.