Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gora321]

anonymous‏ @EricSteiman
$NFLX is a 155B company and generated NEGATIVE 2.5B in FCF for all of 2018.
$TSLA is a 50B company and generated 1.7B combined in Q3 & Q4

10:10 AM - 15 Feb 2019
anonymous on Twitter

 

[gora321]

Vladimir Grinshpun‏ @VGrinshpun
Vladimir Grinshpun Retweeted Bloomberg

The length to which journalists are going to attract clicks using random mention of $TSLA is remarkable. I mean, the only thing common between a Tesla and this thing is that both have four wheels. Oh, wait...

Vladimir Grinshpun added,

BloombergVerified account @business
It’s all-electric like a Tesla. It’s priced like a Ford Fiesta Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
5:06 PM - 15 Feb 2019
Vladimir Grinshpun on Twitter

 

[gora321]

Tobias Raab‏ @TobiRaab
Also beim #Tesla Service Center in #Frankfurt warten massig #Model3 auf ihre Auslieferung. Glückwunsch an die neuen Besitzer und allzeit gute Fahrt und großen Dank an die Mitarbeiter für die spontane Hilfe heute!

Translated from German by Microsoft


So at #Tesla the service center in #Frankfurt waiting massively #Model3 for their delivery. Congratulations to the new owners and always good ride and big thanks to the staff for the spontaneous help today!

4:41 AM - 15 Feb 2019
Tobias Raab on Twitter

 

[gora321]

Sofiaan Fraval‏ @Sofiaan
It happened today! Thank you @Tesla @ElonMusk and all Tesla Santa Barbara staff. You guys rock! I’m so grateful today.

3:51 PM - 15 Feb 2019
Sofiaan Fraval on Twitter

 

[gora321]

Diana B.‏ @teslachick
Car prices could jump $1,800 or more if Trump imposes 25 percent auto tariffs — EXCEPT FOR #TESLA LOL $TSLA MADE IN AMERICA

Car prices could jump $1,800 or more if Trump imposes 25 percent auto tariffs

3:58 PM - 15 Feb 2019
Diana B. on Twitter

 

[gora321]

I Visited 107 Tesla Stores — Here’s What I Discovered | CleanTechnica

 

[SebastianR]

Weekend & holiday off-topic - this is the German ADAC edition!

First for those who don't know the ADAC, it is indeed a fixture of German car culture - one of the oldest and biggest car clubs in the world(?), a massive conglomerate with non-profit elements (the car club itself), then a massive multi-million Euro enterprise bolted on to it selling insurances, providing road side assistance, air ambulance services, selling tourist materials/guide books/maps, operating driving / car safety centres, organising massive events, doing car rentals - the works.

Most importantly they have a huge lobby voice and often determine / impact on vehicle policies/politics around traffic laws etc. They have a "mixed" history with regards to cars: on the one hand, they provide a list of environmentally friendly cars, on the other hand they are strictly against any restrictions on Diesel cars - in fact they lobby for the BMW proposal to circumvent driving restrictions in German cities (see my previous post on that topic).

Most importantly the ADAC has had its share of scandals - for instance they have a list of "best cars" which - miraculously was always topped by German cars. The sold it as independent, fact based list but were discovered to be "bought" by the German car industry.

One thing to note is that their own business model of providing roadside assistance is under thread by EVs: They recently admitted that with exception of the 12V batteries EVs are typically trouble free on roads (if you ignore user error stuff like locking yourself out of your own car etc.).

Having said this:

I've been following the German car magazine reviews and some new videos are popping up now that deliveries have started. I would describe the traditional journalists' reviews as grudgingly acknowledging the cars strength, but you can almost feel their pain. Nothing shows this more, then the fact that there is always an "aber" (but) which is usually sort of a little lie to make the local car industry look a little better.

That was my observation when I watched the video a few days ago. It is a shallow, silly video with many factual errors. BUT (see, I'm doing the same!) it is remarkably positive for the ADAC. So I think this indeed a step change and possibly the beginning of a different kind of reporting on the Model 3

I'd still say this video is a huge plus if they are only griping about pricing, the first thing most European car buyers will do is to check base prices, options prices, bundling and availability.

It's the subjective impression (good car / bad car) that has a bigger influence.

Fully agree. If the ADAC wants to take their audience along, they need to start putting these videos out and then step by step get more factually accurate / positive. After hyping the German car industry for decades (and trashing the US car makers) they can't suddenly switch over.

Watch out - OT politics in the below...

Spoiler

For everyone who wants to understand the ADAC and German car culture better I offer a parallel: Cars and unlimited speeds on German Autobahn is for many Germans what is the 2nd amendment to the US: no matter how much you try to have a fact-based discussion it will end in a shouting match, name calling and very little minds changed. Conversely the ADAC in Germany has similar structures/status to the NRA in the US - both make a ton of money off their members, they keep politicians on message and ensure that their position can't be discussed openly/rationally

 

[Fact Checking]

Grand Aurora is at Zeebrugge. What is this, the third ship to arrive? Glovis Captain and Glovis Cosmos were #1 and #2, respectively, if memory serves.

Still no new ship at Pier 80. Frustrating. Maybe they're needing to increase their (more profitable) domestic inventory.

Interesting:

• Right around now (middle of February) would be the time to slow down Q1 shipments to Europe and China, if they want lower "vehicles in transit" at the end of Q1. Maybe there's a few more days for cars to reach European owners - but the timing would be tight.
• But this assumes they have enough demand in North America to absorb 6k/week of production during the rest of Q1.
• To create the guided ~11k vehicles in transit at the end of Q1 they can send another 3-4 ships in the next 6 weeks, about 1 every ~2 weeks.
• Technically, if U.S. demand is high enough, Tesla could skip sending new ships to Europe and China.
• Especially China shipments would make sense to delay, until they know how high tariffs are going to be after March 1. There's a big difference between 40%+25%=65% and 15% ...

Is pier 80 still being filled up with cars? Do we know how many ships went to Europe and China so far?

 

[RobStark]

Not using Nikola tesla to his fullest potential is one of the tragic ends in history. I can only hope you americans don't repeat history and watch anxiously from the sideline.

Why did nikola tesla have to leave Europe to become NIKOLA freaking TESLA?

Where is Europe's Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk?

Why did Elon Musk choose America and not Europe to found SpaceX,Tesla and The Boring Company after acquiring seeding money founding Zip2 and Paypal?

 

[Fact Checking]

For everyone who wants to understand the ADAC and German car culture better I offer a parallel: Cars and unlimited speeds on German Autobahn is for many Germans what is the 2nd amendment to the US: no matter how much you try to have a fact-based discussion it will end in a shouting match, name calling and very little minds changed. Conversely the ADAC in Germany has similar structures/status to the NRA in the US - both make a ton of money off their members, they keep politicians on message and ensure that their position can't be discussed openly/rationally

That's quite a stretch:

The Autobahn isn't killing nearly as many people as lax gun regulation in the U.S., and the ADAC is not lobbying nearly as aggressively as NRA supporters, who are posting maps of liberal politicians marked with gun sights and are attacking doctors:

NRA Tweets Warning To Anti-Gun Doctors: 'Stay In Your Lane'

Sarah Palin's PAC Puts Gun Sights On Democrats She's Targeting In 2010 | HuffPost​

Nor is the ADAC financed by Russia:

NRA ties to Russian operatives are the target of growing scrutiny, congressional sources tell us

NRA got more money from Russia-linked sources than earlier reported​

I'd compare the ADAC to Consumer Reports instead: big infuence, and if there's a problem with a car they are testing they don't have to wait 8 weeks for parts but get an OTA update within days.

 

[Buckminster]

Take one for the team - we expect you to report back today or I will move your posts to OT thread.

Mr Aud - your time is up - please hand over your TMC password so I can do the necessary. Let me know if I am over reaching - I have boundary issues....

In the mean time - I have had to do your work for you:

I give you the "all growned up" Pewdiepie:

This guy will do a lot of good as his followers grow up with him and he can do more of this.

 

[SebastianR]

That's quite a stretch:

The Autobahn isn't killing nearly as many people as lax gun regulation in the U.S., and the ADAC is not lobbying nearly as aggressively as NRA supporters, who are posting maps of liberal politicians marked with gun sights and are attacking doctors

I fully agree. The ADAC is not nearly as aggressive / does to my knowledge not have any Russian funding associated / does not work with outright smears/lies etc.

But here I disagree:

I'd compare the ADAC to Consumer Reports instead: big infuence, and if there's a problem with a car they are testing they don't have to wait 8 weeks for parts but get an OTA update within days.

They want to project that image but a) they are not impartial - you can buy their endorsements and b) they are hugely influential when it comes to German car politics

Anyways - I didn't mean to imply the NRA and the ADAC are EXACTLY the same, just that they sit in similar corners when it comes to lobbying for their niche - adjusted for what is "acceptable" in the local political context...

 

[Matias]

https://electrek.co/2019/02/15/tesla-ends-contract-model-3-delivery-europe/

This decision to take preparation for delivery to service centres will hit the fan. Service centres are already overwhelmed.

 

[FrANce]

Tesla ends contract to prepare Model 3 for delivery in Europe a week after first ship

This decision to take preparation for delivery to service centres will hit the fan. Service centres are already overwhelmed.

I'd imagine the service centres would hire extra staff to cope with Model3 preparations?

 

[gringotuanis]

Interesting:

• Right around now (middle of February) would be the time to slow down Q1 shipments to Europe and China, if they want lower "vehicles in transit" at the end of Q1. Maybe there's a few more days for cars to reach European owners - but the timing would be tight.
• But this assumes they have enough demand in North America to absorb 6k/week of production during the rest of Q1.
• To create the guided ~11k vehicles in transit at the end of Q1 they can send another 3-4 ships in the next 6 weeks, about 1 every ~2 weeks.
• Technically, if U.S. demand is high enough, Tesla could skip sending new ships to Europe and China.
• Especially China shipments would make sense to delay, until they know how high tariffs are going to be after March 1. There's a big difference between 40%+25%=65% and 15% ...

Is pier 80 still being filled up with cars? Do we know how many ships went to Europe and China so far?

Yes, there's a few ppl on Twitter tracking the shipa. They've been reposted here. Something like 6 to 8? Ships so far I believe.

 

[avoigt]

For those interested I did post the last days a lot of information about the M3 delivery status in Germany on Twitter to reach a larger group of people and help giving them an understanding how popular the 3 is already today at this early days in Germany.

Right now we have information from just a few delivery centers in Germany and quite some good pictures documenting the status. All is going well so far but the next week will be a major push in deliveries from what I hear.

Frankfurt, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Weinstein, Munich are mainly reported on with cars counted around 40 to 120 units. Larger lots at harbors e.g. in Neuss are not counted but those will be the large hubs where the majority will be delivered to customers moving forward and partly starting next week.

The strike in Belgium as well as the cancellation of the contract with the Belgium contractor has caused Tesla to ship all 3s over to Germany where nobody was really prepared for it. Previously they should have been cleaned and detailed in Seebrügge just shipped by trailer to Germany and given to the customer.

Now they ship them over and put them partly on lawns or quickly rented lots because there is no space and clean and detail them at that locations to deliver. This requires much more hands and is all not planned for.

We all can imagine what massive shift and change of processes that includes without notice period.

Looking at that I have to congratulate Tesla for making that happen quite smoothly so far. No long waiting times or delays, no angry customers. Also panel gaps and cars as such look really good and there are just a very few minor complains. Everybody who got the invitation took his car home and many are just blown away from it.

Commenets include:

"When I started driving I thought they gave me the wrong car, a P Model.”

"The car is Madness. Have unspooled the first 300km. Such a hammer vehicle!!"

"It is a dream. Pure madness. I love this car. The trip from SeC to my home was like a dream come true. Every darn minute of the almost 3 years, every cent of almost €60k, every second in the waiting queue of the hotline every little joy ahead was it ALL worth it. Even if nerves are blank at times … to be frank, **** the bad feelings. Be just happy it is the time. Can’t give you more for the road. Simply enjoy the happiness before.”

Alex on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Interesting:

• Right around now (middle of February) would be the time to slow down Q1 shipments to Europe and China, if they want lower "vehicles in transit" at the end of Q1. Maybe there's a few more days for cars to reach European owners - but the timing would be tight.
• But this assumes they have enough demand in North America to absorb 6k/week of production during the rest of Q1.
• To create the guided ~11k vehicles in transit at the end of Q1 they can send another 3-4 ships in the next 6 weeks, about 1 every ~2 weeks.
• Technically, if U.S. demand is high enough, Tesla could skip sending new ships to Europe and China.
• Especially China shipments would make sense to delay, until they know how high tariffs are going to be after March 1. There's a big difference between 40%+25%=65% and 15% ...

Is pier 80 still being filled up with cars? Do we know how many ships went to Europe and China so far?

9, I think. I'm still tracking 6 ships and if I remember correctly I've closed 3 tabs so far - two European ships and 1 Chinese.

The problem is that we don't know how many cars are being put on each ship. I've only seen one estimate, for the very first ship (the Glovis Captain), and it was "about 2000 Teslas" (which seemed to be proven true when it unloaded, although part of that order was also Model Ss). But these ships can take up to ~6k or so.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

"The car is Madness. Have unspooled the first 300km. Such a hammer vehicle”

Alex on Twitter

I agree. Other cars can’t touch it. With sentry mode, no one can touch it.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

https://electrek.co/2019/02/15/tesla-ends-contract-model-3-delivery-europe/

This decision to take preparation for delivery to service centres will hit the fan. Service centres are already overwhelmed.

This is exactly what they did in the States for the Model 3 rollout. While there were plenty of early problems they didn't have to do with the service centers. I a sure they will have largely worked through these issues and have smoothed out the process.

It was actually great taking delivery at a service center for me because the few minor issues I had with the car were taken care of immediately (15 minutes) and I drove off with an absolutely perfect car.

Dan

 

[Fact Checking]

The strike in Belgium as well as the cancellation of the contract with the Belgium contractor has caused Tesla to ship all 3s over to Germany where nobody was really prepared for it. Previously they should have been cleaned and detailed in Seebrügge just shipped by trailer to Germany and given to the customer.

I'm actually far more comfortable with this kind of decentralized workload than the central chokepoint near the port. While I'm sure this creates a lot more extra stress on service centers, and I think there might be cases of "delivery hell", it distributes the risk far more.

It could also result in better opex: by shifting more work to service centers even the smaller ones should become more efficient. (Better overall workforce utilization, better focus on local preferences in car detailing - where there are any.)