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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Hey folks - seems there was a little delay in the reporting, or the website, whatever, but we've M3 deliveries now showing up in Norway, starting Wednesday. The good news here is that it's updated regularly and seems to be accurate - I guess the info is being scraped from some government system...

26 today, but I expect this to be a snowball, not a rolling stone...

Tesla Registration Stats
Deliveries in Sweden have been postponed to 25/2. The Swedish government agency Transportstyrelsen have had troubles with producing number plates so those waiting on the first Model 3 deliveries will have to wait one more week.

Yes Transportstyrelsen is the same agency that made headlines everywhere a couple of weeks ago when their investigation into autopilot was "going to shut down all Tesla deliveries in Sweden". Someone at that agency doesn't like Tesla.
 
Interesting. Makes me wonder about his source. If its just reverse engineering that is cool and all, but limited in the insights it can give. I also notice he waffles a bit, suggesting at one point that no one at Tesla looks at the data, and later acknowledging that they do. He also backs off his claim about lack of utility. He also says that Tesla lies about the nature of their data collection and that they do not allow opting out. Both of those are fairly serious claims that he does not appear to have anything to support. In fact, Tesla just made a reference to their data collection in a statement to a regulatory agency. If there was anything to these allegations they should be reported to a regulatory authority rather than spreading baseless rumors. The EU would also take quite the exception to unauthorized/undocumented data collection. If there was real data behind the allegation report it as a GDPR violation.

While I appreciate the detailed information it appears to need a grain of salt to go with it. All of the unsubstantiated negative comments betray a bias which, without the supporting data, make it difficult to tell how much has been (deliberately or not) made to fit the bias.
I underscore the earlier comments about @verygreen having some significant insights... I'd give him quite a bit of cred based on his contributions to the autopilot threads...

(edit for atrocious typos)
 
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It's become tiresome wading through fluff to find posts relevant to the share price of TSLA.
Have to admit I’m skimming and skipping a lot, but I enjoy the conversation even though I don’t have time to contribute much as I’m trying to get a new product out.

Pleased that TSLA is still a great investment for longs with patience. Hopefully what I’ve learned here will help me pick good times to add to my shares as I increase my means to do so.
 
Just to give @bonnie and @Swampgator some hard data and fact checking on how misleadingly out of context Dana Hull has quoted Elon - here's the full context of what Elon said on the Q4 conference call a few weeks ago, answering two analyst question about demand:

Source: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Conference Call Transcripts - Nasdaq

David Tamberrino:


"So like orders above, I think I've seen like 20,000 order levels for Europe and single-digit thousands for China is better than that, Elon?"

Elon Musk:

"Yes, absolutely. The - I mean, we're not even really trying, I should point out. I guess it's - we - our factory is like, right now, only making cars for China and Europe. That's all it's doing for - with respect to Model 3. And our whole focus is, okay, how do we get those cars made, get them on a ship as fast as possible, get the ship as fast as possible to Zeebrugge in Belgium then get them over to Drammen in Norway and get those cars to customers as fast as possible. We get them to China as fast as possible."

[....]

Daniel Ives:

So my question is around Europe. Obviously, with deliveries coming onboard in the first quarter, maybe what surprised you in terms of - your demand looks strong, but in terms of what you're seeing at the region, is it stronger than you expected in certain countries? What do you think is driving that? And maybe you can just talk about the opportunities and challenges in Europe especially from a delivery logistics perspective.

Elon Musk:

"Well, like I said, we're thinking about demand almost zero right now. It's really getting the product there in time and not having a ton of cars on the water and in a quarter and then for China getting cars there before there's a potential rise in tariffs. That's really - put really at front of mind that cost reduction and then improving service in North America, yes."​

I.e. first Elon confirmed to David Tamberrino that their EU demand is higher than 20k orders and that they are 'not even really trying' to create more demand. Then, after a similar question from a second analyst Elon reaffirms: "like I said, we're thinking about demand almost zero right now".

Note how brutally Dana Hull is mis-quoting Elon, completely changing the plain meaning of what Elon said, 180 degrees: the 'zero' was a shortcut for: 'we are not thinking about demand, at all, because there's plenty'. She also omitted the 'like I said', which would have alerted readers to the existence of the prior context.

Tesla is exclusively focused on getting cars to Europe and China, because they have tons of demand in both places and the bottleneck is logistics.

Also, the questions and the context wasn't about U.S. demand at all, but about European and Chinese demand.

No matter how I read Dana's piece I cannot come away with any other interpretation that she has misleadingly strung together those quotes from Elon, intentionally and in bad faith.

This is not about "good" or "bad" opinion - reporters are free to have whatever opinion they want, even if I disagree with them. This on the other hand is clear evidence of Dana Hull materially misreporting key, very clear factual statements Elon Musk made about demand. There's nothing borderline about this, and it's not about Tesla fanboys and fangirls being upset about someone writing bad things about Tesla.

This is about Dana Hull breaking basic journalistic ethics of reporting.
@Fact Checking Your comments are sometimes so unbelievably compelling I wonder how writing on this forum is the best use of your time. Surely you could make millions in any industry you choose. Please never leave.
 
Nafnlaus on Twitter

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Unbelievable.

I have no idea how these otherwise smart people can misread Elon so badly, and I believe a lot of the "big" shorts of Tesla are actually misreading Elon's insecurity and body language as signs of dishonesty; and are misinterpreting the honest, straight, hard to decipher tech talk of an Aspie as swagger and deceit.
I think Elon's most amazing ability is cost engineering. This feeds off many comments @neroden has said in the past. If I had to guess I would say that Warren/Charlie are able to spot when a company is undervalued while Elon can see when a process is too expensive - At first glance I would think these abilities are complimentary but given the negative comments it seems that they are totally perpendicular to eachother.
 
My uninformed opinion of share price action lately other than watching paint dry or watching grass grow.....

Bulls know the Bears won’t let the price get to a 360 VWAP before the conversion, so sideline instead of pushing against a wall.

Bears know that Bulls won’t let the share price slide too far and they are comfortable waiting for the conversion date and the VWAP staying around 305.

Friday exception to the above - Market Makers exert their weight and only silly traders looking for $1 gains trade, knowing we’ll finish dead near MAX PAIN
 
is this not good? Low volume. lower volatility
bad for traders, good for longer term holders and shaking out shortz perhapz
low volatility = fewer profits for shortz, fewer profitz for traders, much harder on options holders

Put an IV in an artery and clip the cord, so they exsanguinate their profitz

"did the stock price move today?" nope
"did the stock price move today?" nope
"did the stock price move today?" nope
"did the stock price move today?" nope

SWEET JEZUZ on a chartreuse polkadotted pogo stick, my bazillion shares of options will expire ___worthless___
BFH (Boo _____ Hoo)
low volatility = double double plus good
Gotta love yer luv. :p :D
 
The only problem with that graphic is that traders aren't buying or selling in a vacuum -- so someone is buying at the bottom and selling at the top.

Follow the source of the graphic.
Of course someone buys/sells at the right time. The same one writes the checks to the "annalists"/"journalists"/etc., who propagate the noise and push the desired narrative. Easy money.
 
Man, I make such a terrible TSLA bear. I'm supposed to be working against the company while I (briefly) hold a bearish position, aren't I? ;)
Well first you have to register with reeking alpha. Then you have to get a cool twitter name....um how about @MarkS-toilet

Then spread the fud!
 
Well first you have to register with reeking alpha. Then you have to get a cool twitter name....um how about @MarkS-toilet

Then spread the fud!

Didn't OpenAI just have some breakthrough in getting neural nets to write very realistic text about any topic? I bet it could churn out a really convincing series of anti-Tesla conspiracy theories for me ;)

Could also import an AI-generated profile photo from https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/
 
Didn't OpenAI just have some breakthrough in getting neural nets to write very realistic text about any topic? I bet it could churn out a really convincing series of anti-Tesla conspiracy theories for me ;)

Could also import an AI-generated profile photo from https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/
Gawd no....I read the same article and that stuff scares me. With Deep fake videos and AI writing fud...we are all doomed.
 
Didn't OpenAI just have some breakthrough in getting neural nets to write very realistic text about any topic? I bet it could churn out a really convincing series of anti-Tesla conspiracy theories for me ;)

Could also import an AI-generated profile photo from https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/

They didn’t release it publicly, but maybe you can get the big shorts to get their industrial sabotage guy on the case to steal it for you.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: KarenRei
They didn’t release it publicly, but maybe you can get the big shorts to get their industrial sabotage guy on the case to steal it for you.

"Why, hello FELLOW TSLA BEARS! I too hate Fraud Boy for his dumping parking lots in the ocean because there's no demand at the SEC or something like that. Please be sharing everything that you have against Tesla so I can assist you in your plot!"
 
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