Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I'm actually far more comfortable with this kind of decentralized workload than the central chokepoint near the port. While I'm sure this creates a lot more extra stress on service centers, and I think there might be cases of "delivery hell", it distributes the risk far more.

It could also result in better opex: by shifting more work to service centers even the smaller ones should become more efficient. (Better overall workforce utilization, better focus on cultural preferences in car detailing - where there are any.)

Plus, the service center still has to reinspect and redetail due to the road trip to them from the port. So it's not like the workload went from 0 to 100%.

 

[schonelucht]

https://electrek.co/2019/02/15/tesla-ends-contract-model-3-delivery-europe/

This decision to take preparation for delivery to service centres will hit the fan. Service centres are already overwhelmed.

First pictures of a few dozen Model 3's in a dusty 'truck cleaning' lot parked on packed earth have already hit the internet. We'll see an exact replay of the US delivery hell in Europe.

 

[FrANce]

This is exactly what they did in the States for the Model 3 rollout. While there were plenty of early problems they didn't have to do with the service centers. I a sure they will have largely worked through these issues and have smoothed out the process.

It was actually great taking delivery at a service center for me because the few minor issues I had with the car were taken care of immediately (15 minutes) and I drove off with an absolutely perfect car.

Dan

My local service centre (Aix-en-Provence) has always doubled as delivery centre, not sure if it's the same in the rest of Europe.

 

[winfield100]

Yes, feels that way. Also this is the Friday before a long weekend. Wonder how this compares to other tech stocks.

@KarenRei ^^^
i heard a really good rumor, but cannot repeat it ^^^
oh man, wish i had bought a few more shares.....
edit
for a hint, read Iain M Banks "Excession" starting at page 480, line 10
" ~ what is that?
"~ That is a cloud of warships (cars), it told him
"~ a what?
"~ .......best described as a cloud of warships...... (cars)
"~ Eighty thousand ! ?
"~A growing sense of horror and looming, utterly ignominious defeat was growing

i'm "quietly confident" that Sleeper Service is alive and well.........

 

[SebastianR]

i heard a really good rumor, but cannot repeat it ^^
oh man, wish i had bought a few more shares.....

First @KarenRei now you? Let’s keep it together folks!

Edit: are you saying it is too late to buy more shares? I.e. announcement imminent?

 

[mongo]

i heard a really good rumor, but cannot repeat it ^^
oh man, wish i had bought a few more shares.....

If you can't repeat it, just say it once!

 

[winfield100]

If you can't repeat it, just say it once!

izzat better ^^

 

[Reciprocity]

I can't find the post, but somebody asked recently what are the motives for TSLAQ and the attacks on Elon/Tesla. Whenever I encounter a new TSLAQ troll I always try to understand their background and motives. Its always extremely difficult to know, but here's my view in general.

Motives for attacks on Elon, Tesla, EVs & Clean Energy

1. Professional PR/lobbyists/defamation artists

You would be extremely naïve to doubt that part of the Tesla short narrative originates with professional PR/lobbyists/defamation artists hired by the fossil fuel & Auto industry. I personally think professional PR is at the core of the narratives generated by the TSLAQ movement. They likely also hire social media trolls and bots and provide direct financial incentives for some journalists. These people use the extremely common FUD or Merchants of Doubt strategy that was used to convince the world smoking wasn’t harmful, nuclear winter wasn’t a threat, pollution doesn’t kill and global warming doesn’t exist. This strategy is very commonly employed by incumbents against new startup disruptors in their industries.

The global fossil fuel industry is worth $6trn in GDP (note GDP is profit + wages, total revenue is far higher), while the Auto industry is over $3trn in revenue. All of these profits are at existential risk from the clean energy transition which is on track to provide a much cheaper alternative without subsidy (both financially and in terms of environmental & health cost) as soon as we invest in it. It is now 100% possible to transition to a close to zero carbon energy global economy within 10 years with a great return on financial investment, just by aggressively investing in increased scale of our current solar, wind, battery, EV powertrain and AV technology. This isn't a prediction, but it is definitely a possibility in the very unlikely event global industries and global politicians get their act together.

Note that over $2bn was spent on lobbying US congress alone against climate change regulation between 2010-16. Money talks when trying to influence climate change legislation: New research examines the amounts different sectors spent on lobbying on climate-related issues in the US between 2000 and 2016. Frankly it is absurd that anyone could assume huge amounts of money are not being spent to attack the ringleader of the Clean Energy transition and to defend well over $10trn of revenue from near to medium term obliteration.​

2. Workers that are employed by the fossil fuel, ICE OEM, taxi/driver media & financial analyst industries that feel it is in their financial self-interest to attack Elon, Tesla, EVs & Clean Energy and try to slow the Clean Energy/AV transition.

Many auto journalists and auto analysts have built their career on their connections to the ICE auto industry and they need to keep these people close.

Old industry employees do not know that Clean Energy transition will generate a significant number of new jobs with better working conditions and better pay. They also do not realize that the transition will lead to a much lower chance of death for them and their families from pollution and car accidents. It will also significantly reduce the cost of living due to cheaper transport costs & cheaper energy costs.​

The reason they do not know this is due to the obfuscation from the fossil fuel/ICE lobby and the complicit media & political establishment.​

3. An army of manipulated pawns.

I’m sure professional PR has many trolls and journalists under direct employ, but I think their main aim is to manipulate and recruit an army of pawns to fight their cause.

They aim to convince short investors and retail investors that there is easy money to be made shorting Tesla and that these people can accelerate their profit by actively working towards Tesla’s destruction.

They aim to create a market in the media for negative Tesla clickbait stories, to incentivize journalists to deliver these biases and these stories.

They aim to convince people that Tesla and Elon genuinely are a fraud, that the cars genuinely don’t work and that it is their moral duty to inform potential customers and investors about this.​

4. Organic TSLAQ recruits due to personal world views and biases.

Many people would have joined the $TSLAQ/anti EV/anti Elon movement even without a nudge from lobbyists/PR, due to their own world views and biases.​

The TSLAQ foot soldiers under bullets 3 & 4, together with many of the industry insiders from bullet 2 have many commonly recurring social, economic & political opinions and world views. A few trends that I have seen:

• A deep hatred of Elon. Partly this comes from a hatred of billionaires in general. Partly it comes from a hatred of celebrities in general, or a specific belief that people from science, engineering or business backgrounds have no right to be celebrities. Partly it comes from a hatred of innovation. Partly it comes from a hatred of Elon’s social awkwardness and a failure to understand his sense of humor. Partly Elon has brought it on himself with some of his more stupid tweets and sometimes brash and volatile behaviour.
• A belief in the inherent sanctity and superiority of old incumbent corporations, combined with a deep distrust of startups and disruptors.
• A deep lack of understanding of how innovation happens and how technology is developed. In particular they do not understand the difference between 1-3% incremental annual development through iteration, and first principles based research and step change innovation. They do not understand exponential trends, technology experience curves or consumer adoption curves. They do not understand the blood, sweat and tears and inherent disorder that are required to grow at absurd rates and to advance the world.
• A belief that the world is going to stay as it is today, nothing is going to change and anybody that is trying to change it is the enemy.
• A financial background investing in mature companies but no experience investing in startups or industries under disruption. These people have been drawn into the Tesla story but don’t realize that understanding and valuing startups like Tesla requires a completely different skill set and set of analytical tools.

Put simply. Disruption is painful for the disrupted so they will do anything to distort the fact that they are being disrupted.

The problem that they have is it's like a an avalanche that cannot be stopped at this point and their arguments look dumber and dumber every day. Every new "Tesla killer" that falls short of even competing with an 2014 Model S60. They are falling to react properly. The proper traction would have been too immediately break ground in gigafactories or work with suppliers to do so. The clock is ticking and each day they don't work to supply sub $100/KWh packs puts them father and father behind. They are all aiming for Tesla in 2014 and admitted as much when Audi determined their new PPE platform due out in 2021 was 3000 EU too expensive compared to model 3. I have news for them, they will be late and by the time the figure out the new PPE, Tesla will be 3 more steps ahead.

It's no wonder their only defense is spreading FUD, they have no technical answer. This is what disruption feels like to the disrupted.

Audi is working with Porsche on the PPE platform and they are fine with the additional cost. I wonder if they are fine with the additional weight and lower performance? Time will tell. Disruption can come in many packages, including a ludicrous track mode for model 3?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

On the Bloomberg tracker I see these over 8000 spikes. I’m not sure what that is supposed to signify. I don’t put a lot of stock in the tracker but used to pay a little attention to the spikes thinking it might be weekly burst rate indications. I cant see that being the case now though as some of those are well over 8000. What do those spikes actually represent?

 

[KarenRei]

On the Bloomberg tracker I see these over 8000 spikes. I’m not sure what that is supposed to signify. I don’t put a lot of stock in the tracker but used to pay a little attention to the spikes thinking it might be weekly burst rate indications. I cant see that being the case now though as some of those are well over 8000. What do those spikes actually represent?

They represent that the Bloomberg tracker is terrible and will sometimes be right and sometimes wrong in the same way that a stopped clock is

 

[Webeevdrivers]

They represent that the Bloomberg tracker is terrible and will sometimes be right and sometimes wrong in the same way that a stopped clock is

I hear ya.

 

[Unpilot]

Saul Lopez‏ @slcuervo
Nuevo juguete

9:08 AM - 15 Feb 2019
Saul Lopez on Twitter

Man red looks good on a Tesla...makes me want to sell my boring black one and get RED!

 

[KarenRei]

Man red looks good on a Tesla...makes me want to sell my boring black one and get RED!

Lesson learned for whenever you upgrade next?

Seriously, people upgrading is a great thing for everyone. Not just because Tesla gets a new sale, but because someone who previously wasn't able to afford a Tesla can now buy one on the used market. I run into a lot of people in this latter category... I always tell them just, be patient... in a few years, you'll be able to.

 

[Unpilot]

I already sold my brother...he is ordering a M3 soon....in BLACK!!

 

[EVMeister]

Well the black ones are nice too... If you can keep them clean.

 

[Unpilot]

I Visited 107 Tesla Stores — Here’s What I Discovered | CleanTechnica

I love this article. This guy get's his hands dirty proving the utility of a Tesla. Every time I get on my soapbox to a new person about Tesla they usually have some variance of the following question :but what about range ,can you drive it anywhere?"

We need more people like Steve Sasman to provide info that proves how easy it is to drive anywhere in your car from the future.

Apologize to my friends from outside the US but I love this quote:

"So, let’s celebrate what Elon Musk and thousands of Tesla employees are accomplishing against all odds. They are trying to reach absurdly challenging goals. And, by the way, it is done at American factories with American workers on a car that uses 100% local energy, not Middle Eastern oil."

I love it because it seems central to people who think Tesla is a gov bailout tree hugger company.

 

[Unpilot]

Well the black ones are nice too... If you can keep them clean.

True I get a lot of "that's a bad-ass looking car" comment's.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

13k vins. virtually all single motor US destination. Looks like manufacturing has switched to US production.

 

[KarenRei]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

13k vins. virtually all single motor US destination. Looks like manufacturing has switched to US production.

Aww, beat me to it by a minute because I was taking screenshots