Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Shows many car carriers filled with M3s, parked on a street, presumably in Frankfurt, presumably ready to process and deliver by local service center. Actually looks pretty encouraging. My German language skills are limited, but some comments are celebratory, some see as “delivery nightmare”.

For clarity. I wasn't implying it was a nightmare, but it doesn't look like a well oiled process just yet with 10 or so semi-trailers full of vehicles sitting on the side of the road waiting to be processed. I'm sure they'll have it smoothed out soon just like in the US.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Or Elon and Mars colonization. A genius having some eccentric or even wrong ideas does not necessarily diminish their accomplishments, value, or greatness.

That's different. The previously mentioned eccentricities were against the laws of physics. Colonizing Mars is possible, Just very very difficult and potentially not economic.

 

[Fact Checking]

it is about the pack production rate at GF1:

Carsonight: "I am told they have approached, but not passed, 7K Model 3 battery packs per week and that is their current goal."​

BTW., assuming that Carsonight's GF1 production data continues to be as reliable as it was in the past, this suggests the following Q1 production rate:

• He reported more than 6k/week battery pack production sustained in the first ~7 weeks of Q1,
• recent production "approaching but not passing" 7k/week, which wording would suggest at least 6.7k/week,
• I think an average pack production rate of 6.4k-6.5k/week in Q1 so far is a conservative guess.
• This means ~45k Model 3 packs were already produced in Q1.
• If they keep 6.5k/week for the remaining 6 weeks (which is not a certainty: they might slow down at the end of Q1), that extrapolates to 82k Model 3's made in Q1, or +34% growth over Q4's 61.4k.

This is also supported by VIN allocations data: 98.5k VINs in Q1, which with the 85% estimate suggests a Q1 Model 3 production target of 83k units.

This is bullish: for example @ReflexFunds's Q1 estimates of tiny profits were based on Q1 production of 67k Model 3's. More Model 3's made will improve Q1 results - assuming they can be delivered. If "in-transit" vehicles inventory balloons over the guided "10k" range, that could be a drain on cash.

Also note: a +~35% jump in production could also generate cash, through payables expansion: with about $20k cash per extra unit made in the last 2 months of Q1, if there's ~15k more units then that would be about +$300m more cash.

So unless Tesla slows down production in the rest of Q1 dramatically, a 5k/week sustained rate of production seems secured, and 6k/week possible.

 

[CorneliusXX]

BTW., assuming that Carsonight's GF1 production data continues to be as reliable as in the past, this suggests the following Q1 production rate:

• He reported more than 6k/week battery pack production sustained in the first ~7 weeks of Q1,
• recent production "approaching but not passing" 7k/week, which wording would suggest at least 6.7k/week,
• I think an average pack production rate of 6.4k-6.5k/week in Q1 so far is a conservative guess.
• This means ~45k Model 3 packs were already produced in Q1.
• If they keep 6.5k/week for the remaining 6 weeks (which is not a certainty: they might slow down at the end of Q1), that extrapolates to 82k Model 3's made in Q1, or +35% growth over Q4's 61.4k.

This is also supported by VIN allocations data: 98.5k VINs in Q1, which with the 85% estimate suggests a Q1 Model 3 production target of 83k units.

This is bullish: for example @ReflexFunds's Q1 estimates of tiny profits were based on Q1 production of 67k Model 3's. More Model 3's made will improve Q1 results - assuming they can be delivered. If "in-transit" vehicles inventory balloons over the guided "10k" range, that will be a drain on cash.

Also note: a +35% jump in production could also generate cash, through payables expansion: with about $20k cash per extra unit made in the last 2 months of Q1. If there's ~15k more units then that would be about +$300m more cash.

So unless Tesla slows down production in the rest of Q1 dramatically, a 5k/week sustained rate of production seems secured, and 6k/week possible.

83,000/61,394 is a 35% QoQ production growth rate for M3 - not bad for a slow ramp. Also, getting much closer to their 7k*52/4 = 91k steady state target production rate at Fremont.

 

[lklundin]

Why exactly would Dana Hull end her latest article with:
?

Which is a pair of carefully selected quotes taken out of context and strung together to leave the impression that Musk thinks there is near zero demand for Tesla cars in the U.S. so he needs to get cars to China in order to sell any.

Of course the context of the quotes in the actual earnings calls shows that he means we don't need to think about demand in China, demand is huge, it is not a problem so we don't bother thinking about it. Instead we are working on how to satisfy the demand. He said what he said because the financial "analysts" kept asking questions about demand disappearing (here there and everywhere), which were boneheaded questions in the first place likely designed to be able to generate quotes that could be misused like these were.

It is no accident that Dana chose those quotes, out of context, and strung them together at the very end of her article. It had a purpose to create a false impression of demand collapse. It's part of an agenda. An agenda that you really shouldn't support.

Maybe Dana has no choice, this is what her boss wants and perhaps she hates doing it. But if that's true (which I doubt) she should quit her job and find another employer to work for where she can retain her self respect.

Here is a colleague of Dana's who no longer wanted to put up with her boss and who left in a most spectacular manner:

Liz Wahl - Wikipedia

 

[lklundin]

I have known a few pretty smart persons. None of them bragged about their IQ.
Those that do probably compensate in need of some reassurance?
But what do I know.

In my experience (i.e. among technical people), a very high IQ increases the risk of an unhappy personal life.

I assume it's because happiness comes through relations to other humans, so even if one is not directly lacking in that department it's just much more difficult when one's thinking is on a whole different level, because then attempts to connect to another person most often lead to disappointment.

Although Elon Musk has had no problem getting married and getting kids, I can see him as such a person.

People who think that he is conning people with his appearance have no clue, in my mind.

 

[KarenRei]

New Jack Rickard video (testing a 2170 cell):

As always, double-speed is recommended

 

[avoigt]

Shows many car carriers filled with M3s, parked on a street, presumably in Frankfurt, presumably ready to process and deliver by local service center. Actually looks pretty encouraging. My German language skills are limited, but some comments are celebratory, some see as “delivery nightmare”.

Delivery goes very well in Germany considering the circumstances. On that video there are 7 trailers full with 3s the majority is P. They have a space issue to park them all over Germany at SeC and DeC but that will be temporary.

Most large cities in the west report between 40 - 120 3s partly in different locations and that happened in just 2 days! Eastern cities like Berlin are still lower in volume but that makes sense as the trailer come from west and deliver western cities of course first.

Next week more will flow in and the party begins but given the changes of processes so far it all goes smoothly.

There is still some confusion about delivery dates but I heard of none so far that drove to delivery coming back without his 3.

 

[lklundin]

Interesting:

• Right around now (middle of February) would be the time to slow down Q1 shipments to Europe and China, if they want lower "vehicles in transit" at the end of Q1. Maybe there's a few more days for cars to reach European owners - but the timing would be tight.
• But this assumes they have enough demand in North America to absorb 6k/week of production during the rest of Q1.
• To create the guided ~11k vehicles in transit at the end of Q1 they can send another 3-4 ships in the next 6 weeks, about 1 every ~2 weeks.
• Technically, if U.S. demand is high enough, Tesla could skip sending new ships to Europe and China.
• Especially China shipments would make sense to delay, until they know how high tariffs are going to be after March 1. There's a big difference between 40%+25%=65% and 15% ...

Is pier 80 still being filled up with cars? Do we know how many ships went to Europe and China so far?

Without logging in (and in privacy mode) I just went to the German edition of tesla.com.

So without a reservation, Tesla says that if I place an order today (any combination of options), delivery is in March. Same month if I change the web-site to any other European country. Same for China.

So I guess they are still planning on a shipment to Europe (and one for China). Unless their web-page has a mistake...

 

[avoigt]

Hope not - I need to roll my March calls.

I hope Germans atleast understand that tariffs on Tesla is not going to move Trump. If they are sensible they'd target mid-west and red states - agriculture and other items specifically exported from those states. Unless, BMW uses this occasion to reduce competition at home since they can't compete with Tesla.




Yes, this is why I'm a "Temporary Bear" this weekend This has been bothering me all week. By the time the market opens on Tuesday we'll likely have both a Trump-announced list of tax options, a Trump endorsement of usage of them and potentially even an EU list of retaliation targets, one of which has been suggested would be specifically aimed at Tesla.

The main counter to this is "cooler heads will prevail". I wonder if these people have ever looked at who is in the White House.

Its kind of ridiculous to me that the US declared in a paper that the German Government got already, that German cars are a treat for the security of the US. Germany expects now tariffs to happen sooner or later.

Merkel declared that many of those German cars are produced in the US and sold in the US and it does escape her how this could be a treat for the US.

Everybody here in EU is just shaking the heads in disbelieve how deep the political relationship has fallen between the US and EU/Germany and asking if any logic reasoning is left with the US administration. Pelosi who is also here in Munich at the security conference said that the US people stand behind their commitments to Europe but that does not help at all if the damage they do is not stopped.

Pence declared yesterday in Munich a direct and clear threat that if Germany does not stop the pipeline that delivered Gas from Russia to Europe and does not support the Sanctions against Iran which is by the way a violation against an international agreement and treaty without any reason or prove , the US won't be able to give any security to Europe any more.

All of those may not make headlines in the US as its foreign politics, far away from home but its really bad I must say.

Luckily Merkel is really cold headed and will not do some stupid tariffs on US cars that will everything worse so I do not expect this to happen.

The impact on the German economy will be severe given the weak situation the auto industry is in.

 

[Fact Checking]

New Jack Rickard video (testing a 2170 cell):

As always, double-speed is recommended

2 hours 16 minutes ... still over an hour at double speed. Anyone volunteering to take one for the team and create a short textual summary of notable key points found?

 

[EVMeister]

So without a reservation, Tesla says that if I place an order today (any combination of options), delivery is in March. Same month if I change the web-site to any other European country. Same for China.

So I guess they are still planning on a shipment to Europe (and one for China). Unless their web-page has a mistake...

Not any other European country. *sadface*

 

[Khamul]

LATEST NEWS FROM THE SHORTVILLE TIMES:

In a futile attempt to avoid detection from our vigilant parking lot surveillance team, Elon Musk's Tesla has invented a new, nefarious scheme: members of the Tesla cult has been observed driving cars away from Tesla centers, one by one. By storing the cars in many different garages over the country, they hope to hide the ongoing fraud. Lately there have even been observations of this practice in Europe. Cult members have been seen grinning while driving the cars, which clearly indicates that Tesla have had to bribe their cultists with large amounts of money in order to get them into the cars. Bankruptcy is imminent.

 

[Fact Checking]

Without logging in (and in privacy mode) I just went to the German edition of tesla.com.

So without a reservation, Tesla says that if I place an order today (any combination of options), delivery is in March. Same month if I change the web-site to any other European country. Same for China.

So I guess they are still planning on a shipment to Europe (and one for China). Unless their web-page has a mistake...

Other possibilities beyond 'more ships will be sent' and 'webpage is wrong':

• existing ships underway still have some unsold inventory on them,
• or the webpage is a simplified summary.

If the former then I'd expect EU demand levers to be pulled as the quarter draws to a close. If the latter then we should see a switch over to April/May delivery estimates within the next ~2 weeks.

Note that Model S/X delivery estimates in the U.S. are still 'late February' and U.S. Model 3 delivery estimates are 'February'.

One valid narrative is that North American demand for Model 3 has dropped significantly - and the $TSLAQ crowd is currently running with that narrative and there's little hard data (public anyway) that counters that narrative effectively I think: I mean, there's just 2 weeks left from February and you can still configure your dream Model 3 today with February delivery.

But maybe Tesla got really good at reducing Model 3 configuration variations and over 90% of the orders can be served from existing inventory with no build-to-order delay: white seats are rare and are geographically concentrated, color options have been reduced significantly, and variations like wheels can in principle be configured at delivery centers (does anyone know whether they doing that in practice?). I'd not be surprised if around 5 basic configurations covered 80% of the orders, and 10 covered 95% of the orders, with a very low noise in consumer preferences.

(This is something @Curt Renz mentioned in late December already.)

 

[KarenRei]

Amusing: The vehicle carrier "Tysla" is right outside San Francisco right now

TYSLA Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9515400) - VesselFinder

It's not going there, though.

Still no ships at Pier 80. Very strongly suggests that Tesla is focusing on domestic production now.

 

[KarenRei]

Luckily Merkel is really cold headed and will not do some stupid tariffs on US cars that will everything worse so I do not expect this to happen.

EU has already announced that it will retaliate to any US tariffs, and apparently already has its list drawn up. Tesla-focused tariffs are rumoured to be on it.

 

[Fact Checking]

EU has already announced that it will retaliate to any US tariffs, and apparently already has its list drawn up. Tesla-focused tariffs are rumoured to be on it.

I believe this puts a different light on the recent oddly detailed, extremely high level leaks from Volkswagen AG in the Manager Magazine about how the Model 3 is hurting the Audi E-Tron, Porsche's Taycan and is in general threatening Volkswagen's EV future: it appears to me it might have been an attempt to put pressure on policy makers to 'help' via protective tariffs, while keeping the information behind a paywall and away from being easily and widely circulated.

So IMO those were possibly targeted leaks, with the probable support of the CEO of VW, to give policymakers domestic coverage and PR tools to argue for protectionist tariffs against Tesla.

(It's far more believable to me than the leak being the result of a three-way turf war between Audi, Porsche and Volkswagen.)

If after the China deal the Trump administration is planning on starting a trade war with Europe, to get a glorious "trade deal" from them after a few months of manufactured turmoil, then this would also explain the recent $TSLA price action and capping efforts.

 

[schonelucht]

You are such a funny guy, single-handedly trying to entertain us with comedy FUD on this website.

What is your Twitter Id so that I can follow you there?

Please put me on ignore.

 

[Heart Land]

EU has already announced that it will retaliate to any US tariffs, and apparently already has its list drawn up. Tesla-focused tariffs are rumoured to be on it.

This would not be a smart move in my opinion. The EU should fairly negotiate. Auto tariffs would drive most of the EU into an immediate recession, especially Germany. The US is closing in on a massive deal with China and the markets are back to approaching an all time high. So the US economy would still be flourishing while the EU would be in recession. I’m not sure why the EU would put themselves in that position when all that is being asked for is reciprocity.

In regards to Tesla, I think EU auto tariffs would be good. They would snatch up even more of the luxury car US market share. It’s not a big deal to redirect sales to Asia and US until the trade dispute gets worked out.

 

[KarenRei]

2 hours 16 minutes ... still over an hour at double speed. Anyone volunteering to take one for the team and create a short textual summary of notable key points found?

* 2170s really aren't any meaningful amount more energy dense than 18650s. They pack them a bit more dense in the packs, though. He notes that they appear to have the same chemistry.
* Lots of elaboration on why capacitors in EVs are a total nonstarter, including a description of a project where he spent $10k to add a supercapacitor bank to an EV and it actually slowed the car down.
* A great deal of description about how awesome dry electrode tech is, first focused on how bad current solvent tech is (how toxic and flammable the solvent is, how massive the equipment to remove it is, etc), and a comparison to how small and simple the equipment for the dry electrode tech is.
* Talked some about Maxwell's capacity and power improvements, and how from reading Maxwell's documents, he gets the impression that Maxwell doesn't even understand why. He believes that he does know why, however. Solvent-based binding reaches into every crevice between active materials and can hinder ion diffusion between cracks, but the melt-binding dry polymer approach acts more like a glue at specific points between particles without interfering with flow between fine channels.
* He did a simulated 160kW Supercharge cycle on a 2170 and showed how easily it handled it. He also did a 0,25C discharge cycle, with a voltage graph included.
* He really thinks the Model 3 LR pack should be called a 71kWh pack. You can call it more if you base your measurement around deeper discharge cycles (which he considers unrealistically deep) or slower discharge (0,1C vs. 0,25C), but again he considers that unrealistically slow.
* He goes a lot into how cell capacity generally varies a lot depending on discharge rate... but how the Maxwell approach does not experience this effect much.

This is what I remember off the top of my head.