Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Wow -- this is so shocking I almost can't believe it: no sign of TSLA anywhere on Barchart's "Most Active Stock Options" list. It has been in the top 10-15 stocks ever since I started checking it months ago. This is so peculiar that I almost have to wonder if it's a glitch?

Edit: Similarly, no unusual options trades flagged either.

Double edit: Almost has to be a glitch. I just checked two call strikes for 3/1 exp and saw volume that, for those two strikes alone, exceeded the minimum to qualify for the Barchart list. Something's up with their data, I think.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Wants to fill mornings gap up

Are you aware that most of your projections for TSLA are downwards? Even though SP has gone up as much as it has gone down over the past two years. I do hope you have a more positive outlook in real life

 

[Cherry Wine]

Are you aware that most of your projections for TSLA are downwards? Even though SP has gone up as much as it has gone down over the past two years. I do hope you have a more positive outlook in real life

Dude's been burned by ultra-bullish predictions since Q3 ER. I'm thinking he's switched to a pessimistic outlook as a defense mechanism.

 

[VValleyEV]

IMHO sensible article, the headline is just click-bait, the author is a Tesla owner and economist.
The potholes in our roads are about to get worse because of electric cars

He criticizes some of the proposed solutions for funding highway maintenance in the face of the EV solution, and comes up with a good alternative: tax a percentage of revenue from charging stations. Making it a percentage helps protect from inflation which the gas taxes expressed in cents do not.

So I like the educational tone and recommendations from this article, all of which helps with acceptance of EV adoption and success of TSLA, and his recommendation sure sounds better than flat taxes or mileage monitoring.

Only real STRANGE thing is his comments on home charging vs commercial stations: “... because charging at home is a hassle — requiring eight to 20 hours — I believe most drivers will increasingly choose the convenience and speed of the charging stations, which can fill up an EV in as little as 30 minutes.“

I get it that home charging is a “hassle” if you live in a condo or apartment that doesn’t/won’t support it. But how can an EV owner not be delighted at never having to stop to re-fuel except on road trips, because of the ability to just plug it in at home (again, author says he owns an M3)? And most EV owners than can charge would agree that the expense of adding a L2 charger to your garage that can charge overnight (in way way less than 20 hours), is a very small price to pay for one of the biggest advantages of having an EV period. What am I missing?

 

[Curt Renz]

No mention of car make in headline either.

Yes - they have learnt that anything to do with Tesla gets clicks. That's why it is always mentioned in the headline - even with a 3 wheel NEV as a "competitor to Tesla".

Yes, clicks are a huge factor. But let's remember that advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise; its competitors do quite heavily. Media producers and editors tend to think twice about mention of advertisers' products related to disturbing news. Tesla however, is fair game.

 

[capster]

Yes - they have learnt that anything to do with Tesla gets clicks. That's why it is always mentioned in the headline - even with a 3 wheel NEV as a "competitor to Tesla".

Don’t forget to mention that if the trolls are down to pulling out the rubber chickens again this close to the wire, the shorts may finally be running out of rope.

Yeah, yeah something, something mixed metaphors.

 

[jerry33]

I
I get it that home charging is a “hassle” if you live in a condo or apartment that doesn’t/won’t support it. But how can an EV owner not be delighted at never having to stop to re-fuel except on road trips, because of the ability to just plug it in at home (again, author says he owns an M3)? And most EV owners than can charge would agree that the expense of adding a L2 charger to your garage that can charge overnight (in way way less than 20 hours), is a very small price to pay for one of the biggest advantages of having an EV period. What am I missing?

You're missing the ignorance of the mainstream population about EVs. Most don't really understand that if the car is parked at home overnight and charging it doesn't take any of your time. And no doubt he has lobbyists telling him how long charging takes and painting that as a negative.

 

[Starno]

So guys you have forgot about Tesla Model Y reveal next month, or you just think it won't happen ?

 

[Cherry Wine]

So guys you have forgot about Tesla Model Y reveal next month, or you just think it won't happen ?

Don't think it's going to happen.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

He criticizes some of the proposed solutions for funding highway maintenance in the face of the EV solution, and comes up with a good alternative: tax a percentage of revenue from charging stations. Making it a percentage helps protect from inflation which the gas taxes expressed in cents do not.

That is _not_ a good alternative. Cost of a charging session does not correlate with road use.
It also creates a perverse incentive for politicians to like inefficiency and expensive charging.

 

[printf42]

So guys you have forgot about Tesla Model Y reveal next month, or you just think it won't happen ?

I guess the consensus here is it won’t happen, and might be pushed as far as they can, could be right before delivery starts.
If they intend to keep the “promise” of Mar 15th reveal, they should have handed out invitations already.

But who knows, Elon might keep his words for just one time.

 

[anthonyj]

Dude's been burned by ultra-bullish predictions since Q3 ER. I'm thinking he's switched to a pessimistic outlook as a defense mechanism.

Meh, not really burned. I’m more butthurt than burned. Account is slightly green, which is pretty good considering I added big time when Elon tweeted “Funding Secured”. Wish I listened to Tivoboy and sold all of my calls in Nov/Dec.

I’ve analyzed the daily chart and noticed that in the absence of huge news, Tesla fills a gap up within the same week. Not sure if it’s built into the algos or what.

 

[lklundin]

I did use MS products back before 1991.

Over the past decades I made several tries, but could never get used to the immense crappiness.

 

[KarenRei]

So guys you have forgot about Tesla Model Y reveal next month, or you just think it won't happen ?

Yeah, that announcement could drop at any moment.

I'm thinking that they may want until at least a few days after the announcement about having paid off the convertibles, so as not to waste the opportunity and have two separate pieces of good news overlap.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's really anyone's guess at to when they show it off. Elon said March in a tweet a while back but that could be Elon time so maybe in Q2. Some are worried that showing the Y in March would be to early and hurt Model 3 sales. I'm in the camp that thinks that's a bit silly. Model 3 prices are trending lower as costs reductions are achieved while the Model Y will be more expensive and Tesla will likely say only top trims will be available in the first 6 months of release. I doubt someone's going to put off getting a 40-45k Model 3 to wait until mid 2020 to pay 70-75k for a top end model Y. ASP of Model 3 will continue to trend lower throughout the year so likely by the time the Y is close to release, the ASP of Model 3 will be 40k

 

[EVNow]

Yes, clicks are a huge factor. But let's remember that advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise; its competitors do quite heavily. Media producers and editors tend to think twice about mention of advertisers' products related to disturbing news. Tesla however, is fair game.

Yes, ads have an impact on what people write - though it gets very complicated, because of various ad platforms and people who write or edit have no idea what ads may or may not display. Different people see different ads etc.

In the old days of magazine and newspaper ads, it was very simple. Companies which advertised got favorable coverage. But now, editors and writers optimize for clicks. Apparently negative articles on Tesla get more clicks.

Ofcourse ads still hold sway over TV.

 

[Tslynk67]

Violet Ace at Pier 80. 12th ship so far this quarter:

VIOLET ACE Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9395630) - VesselFinder

Nice to get some different ship names, Glovis this, Glovis that was getting a bit dull...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I guess the consensus here is it won’t happen, and might be pushed as far as they can, could be right before delivery starts.
If they intend to keep the “promise” of Mar 15th reveal, they should have handed out invitations already.

But who knows, Elon might keep his words for just one time.

I doubt Tesla is going to give that much of a notice for the event, maybe like a week notice. There's no benefit to giving a 2 or 3 week notice to the event. They could send out invites the day before the event and people will make sure to get there and press will be covering it.

 

[VValleyEV]

Some interesting comments about what is in the Rivian skateboard from CEO RJ, wondering if this is really more integration that in Tesla’s current skateboard architecture, and if so whether there are already plans in that direction from Tesla:
Lengthy Q&A With RJ Scaringe by Greentechmedia

The section on Rivian skateboard, see especially 2nd paragraph:
“ ... Then it includes the chassis system, so all of the braking and…an air suspension system, with active roll control and adaptive damping. And then, of course, the thermal system within the vehicle. Those are the large physical components that are contained within the skateboard.

What we also consider to be part of our skateboard is the digital platform, the network architecture, and we've completely designed that from a clean sheet. That gives us a level of network security and the ability to manage and move data both within and outside of the vehicle. That's really beyond what we've seen or what's available today in the market.“

Anything here, folks?

 

[KarenRei]

Nice to het some different ship names, Glovis this, Glovis that was getting a bit dull...

Here's a fun one that's heading to Pier 80:

Vessel details for: TOSCA (Vehicles Carrier) - IMO 9605798, MMSI 566087000, Call Sign 9V9459 Registered in Singapore | AIS Marine Traffic

If you don't get the reference Tesla is making...

Tosca Musk - Wikipedia