Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Those of us who live in BC (and other parts of Canada) just received news of the phase 2 build out of CCS/Chademo in the province (and the rest of Canada). This build out covers pretty much all the major North west, central and North East routes not covered by the already comprehensive Chademo/CCS network. I don’t think anyone expected the announcement until summer but it came out a few days ago. The existing network is already much more comprehensive than the Supercharger network. These new additions just blow it away.

There are many that we know that are and were delaying making the decision on buying a Tesla Model 3 decision until the availability of the Chademo/CCS adapter. Without it the decision is easy. Even if the Leaf or Bolt or whatever is not as much car and the same price. Being only able access a narrow strip thru the middle of the province compared to being able to travel anywhere without being tied to a very limited proprietary Tesla network is a no brainer for those of us who need unrestricted provincial travel. My wife and I so want to join the Tesla family but this latest development closes the door on that. 14 Supercharger locations via 150 plus CCS/Chademo locations by 2020 with already half in place.

The whole thing is very frustrating for us.

CCS/CHAdeMO at what power, OOC?

The SC buildout has been going well on the east coast of Canada.

I'm sure it's frustrating out west, though. No SC infrastructure here where I am either. But I'm sure it's coming eventually. A car is not something you own for only a matter of months, so being shortsighted about infrastructure isn't wise.

 

[geneclean55]

Just for reference:

In Stuttgart at just one Delivery center from the about 7 we have in Germany they delivered Friday 50 and Saturday 60 3s. First delivery in Germany was at February 13th.

Make the math and you get an indication where we are at.

5k for Q1 for EU is in my opinion way too low....

Are the 7 German delivery centers similar in size?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

CCS/CHAdeMO at what power, OOC?

The latest seem to be 100 KW. A few are rest stops with only single phase power available so only 25 KW. I think the existing adapter for S and X is limited to 50 KW. Anything is better than nothing.

 

[dgodfrey]

Please keep us posted on your trans-Canada trips in your Bolt/Leaf. I take it you do these quite often and are a one car household? I had read about a guy a year or so ago that did one. Took about a week.

 

[Tslynk67]

Just for reference:

In Stuttgart at just one Delivery center from the about 7 we have in Germany they delivered Friday 50 and Saturday 60 3s. First delivery in Germany was at February 13th.

Make the math and you get an indication where we are at.

5k for Q1 for EU is in my opinion way too low....

Agreed. As I said upthread, I was told last weekend that Belgium had around 750 orders and Brussels Service Centre was doing 4 test-drives per hour... They hoped to drop that to 2 per hour because it was totally unsustainable, but gives an idea on the interest.

 

[Heart Land]

Crazy thought of the day... In regards to the scaling back of stores, I’m curious what this means for Tesla’s residential energy sales, since the Tesla stores were used as a justification for the purchase of Solar City. I’ve long suspected Tesla has something up their sleeves on the residential energy front. A new kind of efficient home using clean energy for usage and consumption has been hinted at. My crazy thought is if Tesla could create a Sears-Roebuck catalog, or similar experience using today’s technology, for the next generation of homes.

What do others think will happen with residential energy sales after these store closings? Surely there must be some thing, right?

 

[Buckminster]

Rumor is that Tesla has renegotiated Panasonic cell supply at a 30% price cut. Anyone have a solid source for this? Might be disclosed in a 10Q at some point...

I think this refers only to the 18650 supply contract since it was that particular contract that expired last year. I would guess that the gigafactory supply contract has at least a year or two to run before being renegotiated.

Could this be linked to Panasonic moving production to US also? Cheaper labour rates and opportunity to redesign the process.

Big news if true.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Please keep us posted on your trans-Canada trips in your Bolt/Leaf. I take it you do these quite often and are a one car household? I had read about a guy a year or so ago that did one. Took about a week.

We don’t do Trans Canada trips. But we do travel a lot in our province with our first generation Leaf with 30 KWH battery. We can do this because Chademo coverage is quite good in the kootenays and is about to get a lot better.

I get that Tesla doesn’t need the few customers that travel away from the main highway in BC. But it is a shift in their mission. With the model S or X you will be able to travel anywhere in the province. But with the car of the masses (Model 3) that’s not a thing because it can’t access anything other than the Supercharger network.

People misconstrue our sentiment here. We (the group of us that dream of buying a model 3 in BC) think the Supercharger network is amazing and it is one of the single biggest reasons we want to buy a model 3. But limiting the model 3 only to that network is the single biggest reason we simply can’t.

As I said, very frustrating and no one outside the province gets it. BC is just not a big enough potential market for the model 3. And for many of us a model S or X (at least new) is out of our reach.

 

[jerry33]

As I said, very frustrating and no one outside the province gets it. BC is just not a big enough potential market for the model 3. And for many of us a model S or X (at least new) is out of our reach.

It took quite a while for Tesla to release a CHAdeMO adaptor for the S and X. I don't doubt there will be a CCS coming out. The issue right now is that Canada is far advanced of the U.S. in CCS deployment. Once there are more in the U.S. you'll see it happen.

 

[Krugerrand]

No Elon didn't. That was Dana Hull on Dec 6, 2018.

Nope. I’m positive he said it long before she put it into words because 1) I remarked to myself - oh, he’s changed his mind and 2) I don’t read anything she writes, so I didn’t get it from her.

 

[mblakele]

We don’t do Trans Canada trips. But we do travel a lot in our province with our first generation Leaf with 30 KWH battery. We can do this because Chademo coverage is quite good in the kootenays and is about to get a lot better.

I get that Tesla doesn’t need the few customers that travel away from the main highway in BC. But it is a shift in their mission. With the model S or X you will be able to travel anywhere in the province. But with the car of the masses (Model 3) that’s not a thing because it can’t access anything other than the Supercharger network.

People misconstrue our sentiment here. We (the group of us that dream of buying a model 3 in BC) think the Supercharger network is amazing and it is one of the single biggest reasons we want to buy a model 3. But limiting the model 3 only to that network is the single biggest reason we simply can’t.

As I said, very frustrating and no one outside the province gets it. BC is just not a big enough potential market for the model 3. And for many of us a model S or X (at least new) is out of our reach.

I sympathize, but this thread discusses investing in TSLA and so far I don't see how this relates. There are other threads to discuss other topics: I think I've seen at least two discussing Chademo/CCS for the TM3.

Can you turn this into an on-topic discussion somehow? For example you might try to quantify the impact on 2019 sales of potential Canadian buyers waiting to hear about Chademo/CCS support. How much would that move the needle? How much R&D spending would be needed?

 

[Fact Checking]

Monotonously?
Monotonically?
Monotopically?
I'm trying to learn something about this topic, and this use of language is simultaneously intriguing and baffling. The more I delved into the variant meanings of those three words, the more it seemed to me any one would serve.

Meant to say monotonically! The training data set (if organized properly) will primarily grow, never truly shrink.

So for example if a Tesla captured this weird star shaped road marking in the UK last year:

and sent it back to the mothership and if it was deemed important enough to become part of the training data, then it would be part of the "collective memory" from this point on, and would probably be labeled with a "slow down and disengage immediately" attribute or so.

(At least that's how I speculate Tesla uses disengagement events.)

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It took quite a while for Tesla to release a CHAdeMO adaptor for the S and X. I don't doubt there will be a CCS coming out. The issue right now is that Canada is far advanced of the U.S. in CCS deployment. Once there are more in the U.S. you'll see it happen.

Thanks for the encouragement.

And a little info. Here in BC CCS and Chademo get built out fairly evenly as the governent is involved. Every installation is Chademo and CCS. The electrify Canada VW installations are the exception as CCS is weighted heavier but there is always still a CHademo.

Cheers.

 

[1101011]

Sitting in the customer area at the Cleveland service center, I was in hearing range of a couple of sales staff double teaming a customer pre-testdrive. It was evident to me that neither have really experienced daily driving in any Tesla, much less done a SpC (or any long) trip.

While not cringe worthy, I was mentally correcting/editing their statements.

Not sure how it will eventually play out, but clearly in my mind, is the thought that an endorsement by a satisfied owner has much greater impact than platitudes from a paid sales rep.

 

[KarenRei]

Crazy thought of the day... In regards to the scaling back of stores, I’m curious what this means for Tesla’s residential energy sales, since the Tesla stores were used as a justification for the purchase of Solar City. I’ve long suspected Tesla has something up their sleeves on the residential energy front. A new kind of efficient home using clean energy for usage and consumption has been hinted at. My crazy thought is if Tesla could create a Sears-Roebuck catalog, or similar experience using today’s technology, for the next generation of homes.

What do others think will happen with residential energy sales after these store closings? Surely there must be some thing, right?

Tesla is maintaining galleries in places with high foot traffic, where the additional sales justifies the cost of maintaining them.

 

[Freder Reeve]

How about Tesla positions test drive vehicles at certain high-population supercharger stations. Maybe a customer orders the test drive online and a rep is scheduled to meet them.

 

[NicoV]

Agreed. As I said upthread, I was told last weekend that Belgium had around 750 orders and Brussels Service Centre was doing 4 test-drives per hour... They hoped to drop that to 2 per hour because it was totally unsustainable, but gives an idea on the interest.

Also for reference, the Ghent service center apparently received 70 Model 3’s on one day last week. A friend (non-owner) took delivery of his Model 3 in 15 minutes (or so he said, maybe he was exagerating).

 

[KarenRei]

We don’t do Trans Canada trips. But we do travel a lot in our province with our first generation Leaf with 30 KWH battery. We can do this because Chademo coverage is quite good in the kootenays and is about to get a lot better.

I get that Tesla doesn’t need the few customers that travel away from the main highway in BC. But it is a shift in their mission. With the model S or X you will be able to travel anywhere in the province. But with the car of the masses (Model 3) that’s not a thing because it can’t access anything other than the Supercharger network.

People misconstrue our sentiment here. We (the group of us that dream of buying a model 3 in BC) think the Supercharger network is amazing and it is one of the single biggest reasons we want to buy a model 3. But limiting the model 3 only to that network is the single biggest reason we simply can’t.

As I said, very frustrating and no one outside the province gets it. BC is just not a big enough potential market for the model 3. And for many of us a model S or X (at least new) is out of our reach.

I'll simply repeat the advice: you don't own a car for just three months. Making short-sighted decisions based on what infrastructure currently happens to be in your province is unwise. A Bolt-style vehicle will never be a good road tripper, for the entire life of the vehicle that you own it. They not only have lower charging powers, but are less efficient on the highway to boot.

Take that for what you will. I sympathize, as I'm in the same situation, but I'm certainly not going to make a short-sighted decision like that. It's like people who go and buy an ICE guzzler because, "Well, gas prices are low!", as if they're going to be low for the entire lifespan of the vehicle.

 

[Krugerrand]

I was speaking to staff at a Dallas gallery recently. They expressed a love for the cars, but fear working for the company. One person in sales when I made a comment about Elon hating stock traders said “well he hates us to you know, sales people.” What they are doing with rapid succession layoffs seems terrible for morale imo.

What did you expect an employee with a good chance of being laid off to say, ‘He loves me with all is heart and soul!’???

Context please when reporting what employees and ex-employees say. Because according to Elon’s many reported emails to employees, his actions over the years and several ex-employees who’ve had glowing things to say about Tesla and Elon, Elon cares about people, including the ones who work for him or have worked for him - everyone’s experience is very likely to differ based on a million different things.

Morale is not a static state, so don’t present it it that way or suggest it’s that way.

 

[Fact Checking]

Your cash numbers are completely wrong.

I'd prefer discussion of the numbers itself to continue in the appropriate thread. You'll see my answer there.

Implications of what different cash balances would mean for the company go here.

You provided no link ...

Since you posted your erroneous figures here on the general investor thread, it would be really helpful if @ReflexFunds posted any additional rebuttals here too.