Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sancho]

No question that all the FUD has had a materially detrimental impact on Tesla’s reputation as a carmaker. I hear it every day from friends and family.

Despite that, I am getting an increasing number of inquiries from seriously interested M3 buyers among my friends and family. And when I pull into a parking lot now, most people who now come over to ask questions express an interest in purchasing the M3.

Try not to look at the glass half empty. I believe that the glass that’s half full is more than sufficient to meet production capacity.

It wasn’t that long ago that I’d pull up with my MS and most people would ask me what it was. Now, Tesla’s mindshare is near universal.

 

[printf42]

The writer seems to think the Y requires subsidies to sell. Out of touch. Has not noticed Tesla pricing is now head to head with comparable ICE models.

Indeed, almost nobody has noticed. When they do, the share price will move. Far better product, same price, max-growth secured.

Agree!
EVs are like electric watches, they just runs and it is cheaper than mechanical watches now, after a few years only people who loves ICE as an art piece would buy them to show off. Just like no one buys a mechanical watch to keep time.

When the transition is done, only brands like Ferrari or Koenigsegg would survive without fully Electrifying their fleet, I mean all BEV, not hybrids.

 

[eloder]

I heard some of those rumors but cannot confirm them to have any real validity. I only see it was debated at one point, but the governor decided to decline. Do you have any source for this claim?

How much would you pay if Ohio's gas tax rises by 18 cents per gallon? We did the math.

“More debt wasn't an option for DeWine. Earlier this month, a panel convened by DeWine recommended raising the motor fuel "user fee" after taking testimony for just two days. DeWine also did not recommend a new fee on electric, hybrid or alternative fuel vehicles, which state officials estimated would raise only $2.5 million a year.”

It's real. I live in Ohio and wrote to my representative about it. Here's their response:

Dear <me>,

Representative Miller asked that I contact you directly. Yesterday, the House passed the Transportation budget which included a yearly registration fee on alternative-fuel vehicles including $200 for electric vehicles and $100 for hybrids.

It is still not law. The legislation needs to go to the Senate and there may be a number of changes, which may lead to more changes should there be a conference committee, then it will likely come back to the House for another vote.

Representative Miller voted against the bill and is working to create policies that encourage electric and hybrid vehicles. Please continue your advocacy and reach out any time we can be of assistance.

Thanks

Doug

It probably won't be a sizeable hit to EV adoption here in Ohio because we have cheap electricity and among the lowest (any) car ownership costs of any state in the US, but probably bad news for other states looking for precedent on outrageous EV taxes. Hopefully they'll set a more reasonable value like $50-$100.

Slightly OT, but if anyone wants to pitch in their voice, here's the form I used to get that response from my legislator: Proposed Ohio EV & Hybrid Fee - Action Network

 

[Sudre]

That woman that said "They closed all their stores"? "The best strategy" is for people like you to educate people like her. E.g. correct her about the stores....

I have found that most of "those" people, particularly out in the sticks, actually know better. They are just giving out smart ass answers because they are not interested in an EV. If you continue the conversation usually the next comment would be something like, "Well they catch fire a lot." SO they obviously have information and are not interested in EVs or they would do a little research and quickly find out the answers. It's not like the person doesn't have a smart phone (maybe smarter than them :-0) because that's where they got their current knowledge.

If the person knew SO quickly that all the stores are closed they should have found out just as quickly that Tesla has changed their minds on that count.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

We need a "you're right and it makes me freaking angry!" button!

Difference is that VW is not seen as a growth stock. This is not unique to Tesla. When mature companies institute layoffs, cost cutting is seen as a positive. When growth companies cut workers, if is seen as a sign of slowing growth, hence a negative. The flip side is that losses or small profits are tolerated for quite a while in growth companies (higher P/E). Mature companies are punished more severely for losses or reduced earnings.

 

[dddaaa0]

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

It is really simple.
First, the market data proves definitively that the tweet in question was not material since it precipitated no market movement. That is a quite definitive standard, one which the SEC must apply if they pursue a civil or criminal action.
Second, if the SEC chose to pursue legal action claiming a violation, they must prove their assertion.
Third, if proof of immateriality is present, but teh SEC chose to proceed anyway, they must prove their own case.
Their own case allegedly relied on TSLA share traders providing evidence, which must be presented to prove their case.
Of course, if they wish to avoid discovery they can drop their case and void the original agreement that precipitated their assertions.

It's a civil action, the plaintiff has no alternative other than present their evidence unless they wish to drop the case. Their standard of proof is less in a civil than a criminal case, and the SEC has rarely pursued such cases, almost never in the absence of clear criminal action in violation of an agreement.

I agree with everything you said, but...
Tesla policy, or agreement with SEC (or both) calls for pre-approval of material information, or what could be material information (I've seen it somewhere in documents I read). Production progress and numbers are categories specifically called in Tesla's policy as potentially material. That this tweet didn't turn out to be material is a fact proven by market reaction, but it could have been material. Yet part of it the reason it didn't become material is certainly built-in suspicion in stuff Elon says, which isn't helping his case much.
I think we will need to rely on the fact that those numbers were mentioned in a conference call, more than anything else.
I think Elon gets off with the warning, and more likely than not, SEC gets warning too.

 

[skitown]

I have found that most of "those" people, particularly out in the sticks, actually know better. They are just giving out smart ass answers because they are not interested in an EV. If you continue the conversation usually the next comment would be something like, "Well they catch fire a lot." SO they obviously have information and are not interested in EVs or they would do a little research and quickly find out the answers. It's not like the person doesn't have a smart phone (maybe smarter than them :-0) because that's where they got their current knowledge.

If the person knew SO quickly that all the stores are closed they should have found out just as quickly that Tesla has changed their minds on that count.

Willful ignorance is for sure a thing. We've evolved to be very afraid of upsetting our "tribe" as that meant banishment and sure death at one point in history.

 

[winfield100]

Yah but check out the comments. Kinda encouraging.

Speaking of, ran across this opinion piece in the Post basically attacking electric cars.

Automatically got annoyed when they used the average price for the 3 but then used the standard battery pack for range.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...hows-just-how-silly-green-new-deal-really-is/

@Spacemanspliff
the guy is a shill for Manhatten Institute and American Enterprise Institute
I wrote a letter complaining about biased opinion pieces w/o having writer clearly state bias to and asking for equal time for a response from folks who know what they are talking about
[email protected] <[email protected]>;

 

[scaesare]

Me attempting to fix a typo and creating a different one in the process (*sigh*)

Glad I'm not the only one who does that.

So I assume you meant full production by Q4 2020?

 

[TradingInvest]

Tesla must come up with a communications strategy that's effective with mainstream America (I do see that you are in Italy). The word of mouth strategy might work in California, but then there's the other seven-eighths of America. One day last week I drove five hours and saw one Tesla (way out in the sticks; I thought maybe they were lost [not seriously]). Yesterday someone with an old car told me she plans to buy a new Honda. I asked if she considered a Model 3. "No they closed all their stores." Yes I believe Tesla is currently selling all the 3's they can make, and there are untapped markets and demand levers. But Tesla must rely on 3-S-X sales for the next 12 - 18 months with increasing sales of 3's separate from China. They need a strategy to put positive messages out there. What a high percentage of Americans "know" about Tesla comes from FUD, and that's not sustainable for the brand. YouTube videos? Speaking tours? I don't know what's the best strategy.

Totally agree with you. Word of mouth can affect one person at a time. A website can serve 10 million people a day. Tesla needs a good website, maybe created and maintained by fans, to set the records straight. Then when we talk to someone new to EV, we can give them the website.

This website can group info under several tabs:

1. Total ownership cost comparison between (Tesla's) EVs and ICE vehicles

2. Safety

3. Why EVs are good for environment and health

4. Quality and how long can the vehicles/batteries last

5. Autopilot and full self-driving

6. Tesla's mission, master plans and open patents

7. Charging, daily drive and long distance travel.

8. Daily news
...

 

[Pras]

For the Model Y event, The surprise I want to see is updated timeline for MY.

• For GF1, what needs to be done is only press and paint then a duplicate of GA4 tent. They for sure will leave plenty of free space for future automation updates, but I hope they don’t make it into a dreadnought from day one. Elon should have learned that lesson through the NDE called M3 ramp.
• For GF3, I don’t see any reason they cann’t produce M Y from day one, that could mean it starts at end of this year, with volume production of SR trim some time next year.

How about coast to coast demo of FSD!

 

[shrspeedblade]

Ready for the next emission scandal? Chrysler this time:

862,520 Fiat-Chrysler vehicles have emissions issues, will be recalled

Why do I have to search for a link on something this big and every idiot who drives their Tesla into a wall shows up in my news feed?
Don't bother, I know why.

 

[Sudre]

I agree with everything you said, but...
Tesla policy, or agreement with SEC (or both) calls for pre-approval of material information.....

The information in the tweet was mentioned in 10K filing to the SEC that same day before he made the tweet. That means the information was approved and released to the public. I do not see how it can be argued that information Tesla provided to the public that day can not be tweeted by Elon because only Elon's tweets move the market. Basically the information had already be reviewed and approved for public consumption.

If Elon tweets now that Tesla is making the Model 3, it is market moving IF it wasn't already public knowledge that Tesla is making them. Are you going to say Elon would have to get that tweet approved because two years ago that would have been a material tweet?

Two weeks from now is Elon going to have to get a tweet approved if he mentions the Model Y is open for reservations? Provided the Y announcement includes the reservation opening.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That this tweet didn't turn out to be material is a fact proven by market reaction, but it could have been material.

His lawyers address this part in their reply to the original complaint: if that’s your standard, then the SEC is effectively demanding that Elon cease making any statements at all. Because anything and everything he says could be seen as material. That would include posting memes, posting about SpaceX or Boring Co(Halo effect) or even just about his personal life(remember the SP reaction to the NYT interview snippets?). He would have to refrain from any form of communication at all with the outside world.

If *that* is the standard, then the SEC is exceeding their authority by a large margin here.

 

[goinfraftw]

This is a chart from the Global Environment Outlook report by the UN.

...based on data from the NOAA and UCSD.

 

[MP3Mike]

For GF1, what needs to be done is only press and paint then a duplicate of GA4 tent.

They would need a body line at GF1 as well. It is possible that they could use the Fremont presses and only build a body, paint, and GA at GF1. (I don't know how much spare time the Fremont press lines have available.)

 

[Unpilot]

This is a chart from the Global Environment Outlook report by the UN.

View attachment 386123

...based on data from the NOAA.

Were is the sad and pissed off button

 

[PhaseWhite]

It's real. I live in Ohio and wrote to my representative about it. Here's their response:

It probably won't be a sizeable hit to EV adoption here in Ohio because we have cheap electricity and among the lowest (any) car ownership costs of any state in the US, but probably bad news for other states looking for precedent on outrageous EV taxes. Hopefully they'll set a more reasonable value like $50-$100.

Slightly OT, but if anyone wants to pitch in their voice, here's the form I used to get that response from my legislator: Proposed Ohio EV & Hybrid Fee - Action Network

A Minnesota Republican rep also recently introduced a proposal for a $250 annual EV surcharge and a $125 fee on Hybrids. It's almost as if someone else is writing these bills in a coordinated attack on EVs at the state level.

The justification is that EVs and even (shockingly) hybrids are not paying their fair share in road taxes. Minnesota already has an $75 surcharge per EV. In addition to the fact that we basically pay property tax on our vehicles each year. My bill this year for my Model S and Model 3 came to about $2000 (Per year). It's shocking to me that they are even doing this to owners of hybrids, because they are too fuel efficient. Not to mention the fact that everyone who fuels up an EV already pays taxes on the fuel (the electricity is taxed).

This just seems like horrible policy, at a time everyone is buying SUVs by the boatloads and gas in the US is at historic low prices, we are attacking EVs and Hybrids. For shame.

Minnesota Republican-backed tax on hybrid and electric cars would be highest in U.S. – Twin Cities

 

[Artful Dodger]

Totally agree with you. Word of mouth can affect one person at a time. A website can serve 10 million people a day. Tesla needs a good website, maybe created and maintained by fans, to set the records straight. Then when we talk to someone new to EV, we can give them the website.

This website can group info under several tabs:

1. Total ownership cost comparison between (Tesla's) EVs and ICE vehicles

2. Safety

3. Why EVs are good for environment and health

4. Quality and how long can the vehicles/batteries last

5. Autopilot and full self-driving

6. Tesla's mission, master plans and open patents

7. Charging, daily drive and long distance travel.

8. Daily news
...

Nice. When do you start? Have you got a Patreon page yet? Kickstarter?