Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

The other detail Elon provided was that Tesla has made 550K cars "to date". Does anyone know what Tesla's cumulative production was thru end of 2018Q4? With some sly maths, we might get a rough 2019Q1/YTD production number.
Cheers!

This 550k number is almost certainly just the end of 2018 production sum: Tesla made ~293.5k cars up to the end of 2017, and 254.5 in 2018, which adds up to ~548k cars.

I.e. already public information. Sorry.

 

[UncaNed]

I was wondering this myself. Can anyone tell if it has a higher seated position than the 3? That SUV feel of looking over sedans?

High seating position in my Model x = wasted space under the seats. I'd much rather have lower seats and more headroom. I discovered an arrangement of unnecessary Styrofoam spacers under the seats about 6" deep; would have loved to be able to use that room for my wheelchair.

Also, what is the suspension height range? If it's supposed to be an SUV, I think the more clearance you can get out of it the better. I was happy my Model X raised as high as it does, but wish it could give me another inch of clearance for potholed roads and snow.

 

[shlokavica22]

Speculation time.

Elon Musk on Twitter

There was something, but no one caught it.

 

[YasB]

The other detail Elon provided was that Tesla has made 550K cars "to date". Does anyone know what Tesla's cumulative production was thru end of 2018Q4? With some sly maths, we might get a rough 2019Q1/YTD production number.
Cheers!

It's better not to do that and assume the 550k is rounded or a number from some weeks ago. According to InsideEVs Tesla already was at something like 530k at the end of 2018.

 

[Fact Checking]

To me the Model Y unveil was exactly what I hoped it to be: a gorgeous crossover with well specified looks, features and pricing, differentiated from the Model X, which should unlock more Q1 demand and which should Osbourne the heck out of the (mostly ICE) competition.

In ~2 years ICE carmakers should book a ~1.5 million units sized hole in their SUV order books in the $39k-$80k price segment, in the ~90 billion dollars per year order of magnitude.

Just saying.

BTW., just to roll this figure into valuation:

• AMZN is valued at 11.4x their last (Q4) quarterly revenue, 15.3x their second-to-last (Q3) quarterly revenue, with ~18% growth expected next year
  
• AAPL is valued at 10.2x (Q4) and 13.7x (Q3) quarterly revenue, with 11% and 3% growth forecast for the next two years, with ~4% growth expected next year
  
• NVDA is valued at 45.5x (Q4) and 31.3x (Q3) quarterly revenue, with ~20% growth expected next year
  
• TSLA at $300 is 7.1x (Q4) and 7.5x (Q3) revenue - which are very low multiples even today.
  
• If TSLA revenue in 2021 is ~90 billion dollars (with Model 3 and S/X rolled in as well and Model Y ramp-up), then if it stays at $300 then TSLA will be trading at 2.3x quarterly revenue.

We also need to include the fact that Tesla's growth history and growth prospects are significantly higher than that of any of these other companies. And that's just automotive sales revenue, with no FSD and energy related business segments included.

TL;DR: Tesla below $300 is significantly mis-priced even today, let alone in two years - by several factors. Not advice.

 

[Fact Checking]

The other detail Elon provided was that Tesla has made 550K cars "to date".

Speculation time.

Elon Musk on Twitter

There was something, but no one caught it.

The 550k figure was production to date for 2019?

/jk

 

[schonelucht]

As you are probably aware of, no-driver FSD probably won't be legal in the vast majority of jurisdictions for years.

I am not talking about what's legal. I want to know what is technically possible. Do you think FSD when it is declared feature complete, will it have a feature where it can drive without any person in the car in traffic?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

has anyone got an explanation for why I'm seeing the stock DOWN in pre-market. How is the company worth any LESS?

 

[RobStark]

Speculation time.

Elon Musk on Twitter

There was something, but no one caught it.

Isn't 47 a little old to BECOME a sneakerhead?

DM Custom Sneakers @dmcustomsneakers Instagram Profile | Toopics

 

[Fact Checking]

I am not talking about what's legal. I want to know what is technically possible. Do you think FSD when it is declared feature complete, will it have a feature where it can drive without any person in the car in traffic?

You are being pretty cryptic, could you outline what you are trying to argue? Are you trying to contrast any yes/no/maybe answer against past forward looking statements of Tesla and Elon? I'll give you that voluntarily: Elon walked back his FSD claims a lot in the past years. We might or might not see a coast-to-coast demo this year - but I'm pretty certain it will be with driver supervision.

Also, in terms of technical capabilities, for example in case of a medical emergency incapacitating the driver personally I'd already allow Navigate on Autopilot get owners to the nearest hospital at reduced speeds even with HW 2 or HW 2.5, regulations and legality be damned - I'm confident that it would save more lives than it would claim.

So we already there, and the main battle from now on is increasing the number of nines in 99.9% reliability figures, finding ways to properly fence safe from unsafe scenarios, and demonstrating those reliability figures, and convincing regulators. That process is going to take years.

 

[shlokavica22]

Isn't 47 a little old to BECOME a sneakerhead?

View attachment 386607

DM Custom Sneakers @dmcustomsneakers Instagram Profile | Toopics

With my limited understanding of English, I got the impression it's not about the shoes.
People already pointed out the logo and the shoes, long before his tweet.

 

[Causalien]

With my limited understanding of English, I got the impression it's not about the shoes.
People already pointed out the logo and the shoes, long before his tweet.

The cars drove onstage by themselves via summon?

 

[ggr]

There's a factor which I suspect the US is not yet seeing, but soon will. The school strike movement. It started with Greta Thunberg and spread to Australia. Watch as school strike goes global. Kids today are networked.

Today was strike day. 6 letters were printed in the Sydney Morning Herald, all supporting the students. The mood has shifted, dramatically. Coal is political death. The students want zero emissions by 2030.

Tesla has picked the zeitgeist. It's a perfect storm.

20,000 in Melbourne. Amazing.

 

[zzziii]

VW Sued by SEC for Misleading Bondholders on Diesel Cheating

- Agency probe relates to sale of bonds, asset-backed securities
- Company says SEC complaint is ‘legally and factually flawed’

"Volkswagen AG was sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over claims it failed to disclose to investors that its diesel vehicles violated emission standards, the latest twist in a software cheating scandal that has already cost the company more than $30 billion.

The German automaker sold billions of dollars of corporate bonds and asset-backed securities in the U.S. from 2010 to 2015 while concealing its emissions-cheating scheme, according to the complaint filed by the regulator late Thursday in San Francisco federal court. The case could give fresh impetus to similar efforts for redress from European investors."

 

[Dan Detweiler]

has anyone got an explanation for why I'm seeing the stock DOWN in pre-market. How is the company worth any LESS?

The Model Y unveil will be spun as a desperate move to increase failing demand. People will buy the lie and hence the drop in price. I tell you, these thugs are really good at what they do and the market has no interest in the truth, only what the talking heads push.

Dan

 

[Mr_OW]

Speculation time.

Elon Musk on Twitter

There was something, but no one caught it.

I’m going to speculate and say he hinted to a Mars rover...

 

[KarenRei]

This is H-U-G-E

A. Best looking CUV on the market

B. 3 rows !!!!! Do you all understand the major marketing advantage here?

C. the interior space is massive

D. the performance is easily easily best in class

e. For the same price

Let's take a look at the competitors
BMW X3: $41,000 to $54,650 STARTING MSRP. Two rows, 62.7 cubic feet, 6.0 to 4.6 0-60 times
Audi Q5: $43,945 to $52,400 starting MSRP, Two rows, 60.4 cubic feet, 5.8 to 5.1 0-60 times
Porsche Macan: $49,900 to $77,200 starting MSRP, Two rows, 52.9 cubic feet, 6.3 to 4.4 0-60 times
Lexus RX: $43,670 to $51,455 starting MSRP, Three rows, 56.3 cubic feet, 8.0 to 7.7 0-6 times
Cadillac XT5: ha ha ha ha, just kidding

vs.

Model Y: $42,700 to $55,700 starting MSRP, Three rows, 65 cubic feet, 5.5 to 3.5 0-60 times

there are many tears being shed in Germany tonight

I was surprised that there was little* that I was surprised about - down to it being "the minimum size necessary to have 7 seats". Yes, those rear seats are only appropriate for children, but that's the reason most people buy 7-seat CUVs, for big families (incl. sometimes your kids friends, or relatives / friends in the car in addition to your family, and so forth).

The big thing that having that third row does is it automatically shuts down anyone who tries to call any other EV as being in the same class as a Model Y. "What, you're comparing a 5-seater to a 7-seater? LOL. Try again vs. the Model 3."

All in all, a solid vehicle and a solid launch. Not enough to make the markets happy, though.

* - Two things that I got wrong:

• While the upper end range was exactly as I expected, there's clearly more cells in the packs on the low end. I'd say that in general the efficiency is a touch better than I was expecting, too (or they're banking on cell improvements, which will boost the 3 a touch as well)
• I was in the optimistic camp on launch, thinking "very end of this year or early next year". People like Adam Jonas were thinking 1 year later. than that. The reality splits the difference.

 

[jerry33]

Hard to believe after all this time you are still this clueless about electric vehicles.

In the winter up north 375-400 miles would be a real boon because there would never be less than 200 miles. Also in the prairie states where there is very inadequate North-South SC coverage (and probably won't be for a very long time because there is no indication of any coming on the find-us page.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Just an FYI...

I went online to the configurator and speced out a Model Y exactly like my Model 3. Comes out $1500 CHEAPER than what I paid for my Model 3. The car is a steal. Even with a virtually useless 3rd row of seats (I don't suspect they will sell many in the 7 seat configuration) the car is an amazing deal.

FUD patrol will run hard today. All sorts of lies and misinformation will be sure to fly. Tesla...just stay the course and keep on keepin' on.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

In the winter up north 375-400 miles would be a real boon because there would never be less than 200 miles. Also in the prairie states where there is very inadequate North-South SC coverage (and probably won't be for a very long time because there is no indication of any coming on the find-us page.

It will happen. Tesla has to have priorities and right now the added market reached by the Model Y has precedent. They can't do everything at once and there will always be someone left waiting. Patience is a cruel thing. lol!

Dan