Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Why are you wondering if the Rivian will be produced? I don’t see any warning flags, other than how hard it is to do in general.

 

[Remus]

W.r.t small third row seats.
Kiddo car pools are critical function in many many families. As wealthy as bay area goes, the damn public schools don't have school bus!! Even in places that do, sending kids and neighbour kids to soccer basketball and swimming practice even malls, is a daily needs. With moms working these days, car pools are an effective way for them to cut down parents taxi driver duty.

 

[KarenRei]

Fun, fun, fun - German February sales:

EV Sales

The Model 3 may well beat the 3-Series in Germany this month Just picture the headlines!

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm getting increasingly worried with all this Bladerunner/cyberpunk pickup speculation. Very few people in my neck up the woods are going to spend a lot of money on a pickup that is too far removed from our mental image of a pickup. I guess it's a type of illogical conservatism but I suspect the weirdness in my own brain is widespread in the addressable market for EV pickups.

Judging by the somewhat defensive/defiant messages Elon has been sending on the subject:

”I’m personally super-excited by this pickup truck. It’s something I’ve been wanting to make for a long time. And I’ve been iterating sort of designs with Franz ... It’s like I really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk. Which, if it doesn’t ... if I’m weirdly like ... if there’s only a small number of people that like that truck, I guess we’ll make a more conventional truck in the future. But it’s the thing that I am personally most fired up about. It’s gonna have a lot of titanium.”​

IMHO Elon got pushback from Franz and other confidants for the Blade Runner design, and still I'm 100% certain that this summer that design is going to be unveiled and not a conventional one.

Which means it's 2-3 years more waiting for you. The prototype is probably already being built, the teaser image is obvious, so we are well beyond the point of no return.

And yes, it's probably the first major mistake Elon made in a long time. On the plus side I don't think it's going to matter: the Model 3 will take Europe in a storm, the Model Y will dominate America, and the Semi Truck is going to generate a lot of cash.

The Pickup Truck might not be as popular as a more traditional design - but that's OK, the initial run will IMO be a relatively low unit count, so it's more of a Roadster 2020 halo product, not super critical to the bottom line.

​

 

[Creekstalker]

Why are you wondering if the Rivian will be produced? I don’t see any warning flags, other than how hard it is to do in general.

Mainly because it's difficult in general. There are hardly any EV-only manufacturers with vehicles for sale to the public besides Tesla.

There has to be a reason for that, right?

Rivian seems to have their sugar together thus far, so I'm hopeful. Their pickup prototype pushes all my buttons and I'd be willing to spend a bunch of money I don't have if it comes to fruition. All else equal though, I'd rather buy Tesla's pickup.

As long as it looks like a pickup and not a spaceship.

 

[RiverCard]

DÆrik got some shots (35 seconds in) of the jump seat that show what could be a collapsible headrest, along with a glimpse of the clearing to the glass above,

Chauffeur looks cramped,

 

[jhm]

Hi all! Longtime lurker and stockholder since late spring of 2013.

The pickup truck speculation has me wanting to throw in my $.02. I currently own a 2004 F-150 with 230,000 miles and have a 2018 Corolla that I just bought as a daily driver for a 70 mile (round trip) daily commute. I now use the truck for my hobbies: hunting, fishing, hauling canoes, camping, etc. Stereotypical southern guy activities I guess. I only use the truck for those activities now because I'm gonna get an electric in a few years so it needs to last me that long. I will never be totally without a pickup, and can't wait to have an electric to use all the time and pass the Corolla down to one of my kids.

I think there are many thousands of potential electric truck buyers similarly situated. If I were to buy a new truck today, the one that would make the most sense for reliability, gas mileage, and my hobbies would be the Honda Ridgeline. Here's the problem with that: I'm never gonna drive a truck that looks like a Ridgeline. Judge my male redneck vanity if you will but I'm just not gonna buy something as unmanly-looking as the Ridgeline despite specs lining up with my needs. It's a little embarrassing to admit this but sales figures point to much of the market agreeing with me.

I'm getting increasingly worried with all this Bladerunner/cyberpunk pickup speculation. Very few people in my neck up the woods are going to spend a lot of money on a pickup that is too far removed from our mental image of a pickup. I guess it's a type of illogical conservatism but I suspect the weirdness in my own brain is widespread in the addressable market for EV pickups.

That Rivian pickup looks about perfect to me (not sure how I feel about the headlights), but I've got my doubts if we'll ever see it. I like the Bollinger (though only 200 miles of range makes me queasy) but we might never see that either. Bottom line is I really need Elon and Co to take on the F-150/Silverado/Ram and not go overly sci-fi. It gives me confidence that Elon has always mentioned the F-150 as competition but some of this more recent speculation has me worried. Tesla has gotten the big things right thus far. I think they'll continue to do that, but the pickup market is different from sedans and crossovers.

Happy for the existence of this community and would participate in a crowdfunding effort to pay the mods of this thread.

This is very helpful input. It raises serious questions about the sustainability of high pickup sales. What you set out is that the pickup primarily satisfies a cultural need. A pickup that satisfies all the functional needs, but fails to give proper aesthetic expression to the cultural need ("does not look manly") will be rejected. So this is precisely the mistake that Tesla can make. It can put forward a vehicle that may excel in every functional way, but fail in cultural identification.

I'm not sure that this a necessary tradeoff. But let's suppose it is. Let's suppose that BEV tech opens a way to superior functionality. This is actual quite valuable for commercial application where function is valued above aesthetics. There is a market for this which BEV trucks can dominate. But what about the cultural market. This can easily remain stuck in traditional preferences. Generationally this nostalgia can fade. To the extent that current volumes of pick truck sales are driven by this cultural need, they may not be sustainable. For example, pickups are nowhere as popular in Europe as in North America. This may largely be a cultural difference. So as EV penetrate the auto market, we could witness an overall decline in pickup sales. Cultural needs do change over time, but it can be very hard to predict just how that will go. I certainly expect that there will be a nostalgia market for very inefficient traditional pickup for quite a long time, but how big and relevant that market is is quite questionable. For example, Harleys are fading out as a cultural expression in the US as younger generations just don't identify with them the way their grandfathers do. Will the classic pickup go the same way?

 

[jerry33]

I think there are many thousands of potential electric truck buyers similarly situated. If I were to buy a new truck today, the one that would make the most sense for reliability, gas mileage, and my hobbies would be the Honda Ridgeline. Here's the problem with that: I'm never gonna drive a truck that looks like a Ridgeline. Judge my male redneck vanity if you will but I'm just not gonna buy something as unmanly-looking as the Ridgeline despite specs lining up with my needs. It's a little embarrassing to admit this but sales figures point to much of the market agreeing with me.

Elon did indicate there would be a more conventional appearing pickup later.

 

[S3XY]

Hi all! Longtime lurker and stockholder since late spring of 2013.

The pickup truck speculation has me wanting to throw in my $.02. I currently own a 2004 F-150 with 230,000 miles and have a 2018 Corolla that I just bought as a daily driver for a 70 mile (round trip) daily commute. I now use the truck for my hobbies: hunting, fishing, hauling canoes, camping, etc. Stereotypical southern guy activities I guess. I only use the truck for those activities now because I'm gonna get an electric in a few years so it needs to last me that long. I will never be totally without a pickup, and can't wait to have an electric to use all the time and pass the Corolla down to one of my kids.

I think there are many thousands of potential electric truck buyers similarly situated. If I were to buy a new truck today, the one that would make the most sense for reliability, gas mileage, and my hobbies would be the Honda Ridgeline. Here's the problem with that: I'm never gonna drive a truck that looks like a Ridgeline. Judge my male redneck vanity if you will but I'm just not gonna buy something as unmanly-looking as the Ridgeline despite specs lining up with my needs. It's a little embarrassing to admit this but sales figures point to much of the market agreeing with me.

I'm getting increasingly worried with all this Bladerunner/cyberpunk pickup speculation. Very few people in my neck up the woods are going to spend a lot of money on a pickup that is too far removed from our mental image of a pickup. I guess it's a type of illogical conservatism but I suspect the weirdness in my own brain is widespread in the addressable market for EV pickups.

That Rivian pickup looks about perfect to me (not sure how I feel about the headlights), but I've got my doubts if we'll ever see it. I like the Bollinger (though only 200 miles of range makes me queasy) but we might never see that either. Bottom line is I really need Elon and Co to take on the F-150/Silverado/Ram and not go overly sci-fi. It gives me confidence that Elon has always mentioned the F-150 as competition but some of this more recent speculation has me worried. Tesla has gotten the big things right thus far. I think they'll continue to do that, but the pickup market is different from sedans and crossovers.

Happy for the existence of this community and would participate in a crowdfunding effort to pay the mods of this thread.

Elon has already admitted that the pickup that's coming might not be well received and, if not, they will probably follow it up with a "normal" pickup. I expect that will be the case. There will be a limited market for it but if they mean what they say about advancing sustainable transport they will also release something mainstream. So it's going to come down to how long you can wait for your ideal Tesla pickup.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Ross Gerber on Bloomberg:

'There is no competition for Tesla', bullish on new Model Y: Shareholder

 

[Causalien]

Hi all! Longtime lurker and stockholder since late spring of 2013.

The pickup truck speculation has me wanting to throw in my $.02. I currently own a 2004 F-150 with 230,000 miles and have a 2018 Corolla that I just bought as a daily driver for a 70 mile (round trip) daily commute. I now use the truck for my hobbies: hunting, fishing, hauling canoes, camping, etc. Stereotypical southern guy activities I guess. I only use the truck for those activities now because I'm gonna get an electric in a few years so it needs to last me that long. I will never be totally without a pickup, and can't wait to have an electric to use all the time and pass the Corolla down to one of my kids.

I think there are many thousands of potential electric truck buyers similarly situated. If I were to buy a new truck today, the one that would make the most sense for reliability, gas mileage, and my hobbies would be the Honda Ridgeline. Here's the problem with that: I'm never gonna drive a truck that looks like a Ridgeline. Judge my male redneck vanity if you will but I'm just not gonna buy something as unmanly-looking as the Ridgeline despite specs lining up with my needs. It's a little embarrassing to admit this but sales figures point to much of the market agreeing with me.

I'm getting increasingly worried with all this Bladerunner/cyberpunk pickup speculation. Very few people in my neck up the woods are going to spend a lot of money on a pickup that is too far removed from our mental image of a pickup. I guess it's a type of illogical conservatism but I suspect the weirdness in my own brain is widespread in the addressable market for EV pickups.

That Rivian pickup looks about perfect to me (not sure how I feel about the headlights), but I've got my doubts if we'll ever see it. I like the Bollinger (though only 200 miles of range makes me queasy) but we might never see that either. Bottom line is I really need Elon and Co to take on the F-150/Silverado/Ram and not go overly sci-fi. It gives me confidence that Elon has always mentioned the F-150 as competition but some of this more recent speculation has me worried. Tesla has gotten the big things right thus far. I think they'll continue to do that, but the pickup market is different from sedans and crossovers.

Happy for the existence of this community and would participate in a crowdfunding effort to pay the mods of this thread.

It will probably go the way of Model S -> 3, Model X -> Y and then Model F -> U

Say Model F is the first pickup. Faberge egg like Blade runner pickup. It opens a new demographic of people. I really like the look. Draws me in a different way than Roadster, but equally. So some people who are not truck drivers ( and some who are) will end up buying the model F and maybe finding new uses to it. If it looks like what I think it will look like, you can drive this truck to fancy events as well as the outbacks.

Then Tesla will come out with a Model U, which is a more conventional truck that serves the traditional market like they did with the 3 and the Y. You just need to wait a bit longer.

 

[riverFox]

Judging by the somewhat defensive/defiant messages Elon has been sending on the subject:

”I’m personally super-excited by this pickup truck. It’s something I’ve been wanting to make for a long time. And I’ve been iterating sort of designs with Franz ... It’s like I really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk. Which, if it doesn’t ... if I’m weirdly like ... if there’s only a small number of people that like that truck, I guess we’ll make a more conventional truck in the future. But it’s the thing that I am personally most fired up about. It’s gonna have a lot of titanium.”​

IMHO Elon got pushback from Franz and other confidants for the Blade Runner design, and still I'm 100% certain that this summer that design is going to be unveiled and not a conventional one.

Which means it's 2-3 years more waiting for you. The prototype is probably already being built, the teaser image is obvious, so we are well beyond the point of no return.

And yes, it's probably the first major mistake Elon made in a long time. On the plus side I don't think it's going to matter: the Model 3 will take Europe in a storm, the Model Y will dominate America, and the Semi Truck is going to generate a lot of cash.

The Pickup Truck might not be as popular as a more traditional design - but that's OK, the initial run will IMO be a relatively low unit count, so it's more of a Roadster 2020 halo product, not super critical to the bottom line.

​

I'm hoping they prototype cyberpunk and a more conventional design. Drive them up on stage at the same time.

 

[Cartegena]

It's too bad the CNBC hosts kept cutting Baron off when he wanted to talk about his long-term approach to investing in Tesla to ask him questions about the latest background noise.

The short-term drama-du-jour is really meaningless when you believe, as Baron does, that the company will have $150 billion in revenues in 5 years, which is what we'll get if they keep growing at 50%+/year.

Near the end of the clip, Baron said Telsa had "reduced the Cobalt content of the battery from 20-30% to 2 or 3%" Was the cobalt content in NCA cells ever close to 20%?

Also, he said Tesla vehicles get 4.1 miles/kWh while competitors' cars are only capable of 2.5 miles/kWh. Is that accurate?

 

[Creekstalker]

Judging by the somewhat defensive/defiant messages Elon has been sending on the subject:

”I’m personally super-excited by this pickup truck. It’s something I’ve been wanting to make for a long time. And I’ve been iterating sort of designs with Franz ... It’s like I really wanted something that’s like super-futuristic cyberpunk. Which, if it doesn’t ... if I’m weirdly like ... if there’s only a small number of people that like that truck, I guess we’ll make a more conventional truck in the future. But it’s the thing that I am personally most fired up about. It’s gonna have a lot of titanium.”​

IMHO Elon got pushback from Franz and other confidants for the Blade Runner design, and still I'm 100% certain that this summer that design is going to be unveiled and not a conventional one.

Which means it's 2-3 years more waiting for you. The prototype is probably already being built, the teaser image is obvious, so we are well beyond the point of no return.

And yes, it's probably the first major mistake Elon made in a long time. On the plus side I don't think it's going to matter: the Model 3 will take Europe in a storm, the Model Y will dominate America, and the Semi Truck is going to generate a lot of cash.

The Pickup Truck might not be as popular as a more traditional design - but that's OK, the initial run will IMO be a relatively low unit count, so it's more of a Roadster 2020 halo product, not super critical to the bottom line.

​

I hope you're wrong. I'd rather help out the company I own, but my old truck ain't making it four more years.

And if the first iteration is an upper-end small batch vintage I think TSLA will be fine, it just might mean I drive something else.

By the way, I'm very appreciative of your posts here even when I disagree. Helps ward off my inner pessimist.

 

[Opus BC fan]

The Pickup Truck might not be as popular as a more traditional design - but that's OK, the initial run will IMO be a relatively low unit count, so it's more of a Roadster 2020 halo product, not super critical to the bottom line.

I hope that the teaser image and idea of a truck debut soon can push the traditional truck makers to convert to BEVs. ICE makers need to know there is nowhere to hide...

 

[S3XY]

Chauffeur looks cramped,View attachment 387034

He obviously moved the seat way forward to leave as much leg room as possible in the second row.

 

[JRP3]

On the front page of cnn.com, halfway down the middle...

Where we ought to see news about the unveiling of the Model Y...

Instead we see this...

Geez.

When you can't attack the product attack the person.

 

[Freder Reeve]

I'm hoping they prototype cyberpunk and a more conventional design. Drive them up on stage at the same time.

i hope you're right, maybe have the mid-sized version in the bed like in the banner.
What about the normal-sized covered up pickup from that pic last week, the truckload of teslas?

 

[jerry33]

Near the end of the clip, Baron said Telsa had "reduced the Cobalt content of the battery from 20-30% to 2 or 3%" Was the cobalt content in NCA cells ever close to 20%?

Also, he said Tesla vehicles get 4.1 miles/kWh while competitors' cars are only capable of 2.5 miles/kWh. Is that accurate?

No idea about the cobalt.

For the mi/kWh, it depends on the Tesla and the competitor. My S85's lifetime average is 4.08, so I guess you could say 4.1 rounded, but quite a few folks get much closer to 3 than 4. I think a Leaf can get 4.5.

 

[S3XY]

I'm hoping they prototype cyberpunk and a more conventional design. Drive them up on stage at the same time.

And like in the original illustration the cyberpunk will be carrying the conventional one in its bed, drop ramp down and drive on out.

Doh! Freder Reeve beat me to it.